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By Jimmy, 11/22/2011 9:30 am

A few weeks ago I scoffed at the idea that Bobby Valentine was a serious candidate for the managerial role in Boston. Fast forward to today, and it seems as if he is not only a candidate, but the odds-on favorite to win the position.

The 62-year-old Valentine’s most-recent MLB gig was 10 years ago, when he finished in last place with an overpaid, aging Mets team (my apologies: “overpaid & aging” and “Mets team” is a redundancy). I admit to not being very familiar with Valentine’s managerial tactics. Neither is Dan Shaughnessy, it seems. However, that did not stop Danny Boy from penning an entire column on why Valentine is the right guy for the job.  Oh, sure, Dan mentions interesting tidbits, like the fact that Valentine is Ralph Branca’s son-in-law, and the fact that he has a cult following in Japan. Not much was said about Valetine’s actual track record and tendencies as a manager, though.

I think that I should be an astronaut. Why?  Well, I may or may not be a direct descendant of the Bourbon Kings of Naples, and I can belch really, rally loudly on command.  The above statement makes just about as much sense as much of Shaughnessy’s column promoting Valentine.  Here is the most memorable trait of Bobby Valentine: he once wore a Groucho Marx mask while hiding in the dugout after being ejected. It made Sportscenter.

Valentine is a pseudo-celebrity, and Dan’s one salient point is that this might help him in the leadership department. Players might be more prone to respect a guy with star power. While I can agree with that, there’s a whole lot more that should go into this type of analysis, and as of now, I haven’t read much else in the media’s argument for Valentine.

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By Jimmy, 11/21/2011 2:52 pm

I’m fine with the Verlander choice.

I personally would have voted for Jacoby Ellsbury, who was elite in just about every facet of the game this year. I think if Jonathan Papelbon could have thrown one more strike in Baltimore and if Scrubby McScrubbington could have thrown one more strike in Tampa Bay, then Ellsbury would be your MVP today.

Let’s face it, Verlander basically had a Clemens-On-Steroids year (to clarify: I’m not saying that Verlander was on steroids, I’m saying that he pitched like Roger Clemens did while Clemens was on the needle in Toronto), he won the Triple Crown, and his team won the division. This was all extremely impressive.

But, today’s announcement stings a bit. Not because Ellsbury was screwed, but because of the injustice that occurred back in 1999.

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By Jimmy, 11/16/2011 3:55 pm

“Nothing gold can stay.”

                   - Robert Frost

Ladies and gentlemen of New England, we are now looking into the abyss.  Over the course of the past 3 months, we have experienced extreme heartache, shock, anger, betrayal, and loss. Recent events have us wondering if the Red Sox franchise is, after all, cursed.  And just as we think we’ve clawed our way out of this unforgiving chasm of despair and pain, we’re hit with the ultimate blow, one that sends us reeling back into the very bottom of that same abyss.

They tell you that whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.  Does it?  Does it really?   If there is a supreme being, why on Earth would he torture us like this?  Maybe we are ants in the cosmic spectrum, and He is an ill-tempered child with a magnifying glass.  I really don’t know.

There may come a day when I can look back and understand the reasons for the terrible news. Today, however, all we can do is pick up the pieces.

Alas, Heidi Watney is leaving NESN.

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By Jimmy, 11/15/2011 10:57 am

As the departure of bullpen ace Jonathan Papelbon leaves a glaring hole in an already-unstable bullpen, the Red Sox will now need to find an impact arm or two to fill his absence.

There are some direct way to go about doing this, such as offer a large contract to a notable MLB closer such as Ryan Madson (the guy who Papelbon is replacing in Philadelphia). However, as we’ve seen with Papelbon’s new contract, pitchers with an established reputation as a closer will demand top dollar in this free-agent market. Let’s face it, teams aren’t just paying for the numbers, they are paying for the “bulldog mentality” or whatever intangibles are supposedly inherent in a guy who can finish close baseball games on a nightly basis. The magnitude of impact that these intangibles have on performance (assuming they even exist) is quite debatable, which leads me to believe that this may be an area where a more savvy GM can save a bit of coin without sacrificing too much in terms of actual talent.

I’ve always been a strong supporter of two types of moves:

1. Acquiring a middle reliever with good peripheral numbers but little/no closer experience.
2. Attempting to convert an inconsistent starting pitcher with good “stuff” into a reliever.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 10/31/2011 9:14 am

The solid play of Marco Scutaro in 2011 made it a certainty that the Red Sox would pick up his $6 million option for 2012. The decision is made even easier by Jed Lowrie’s inability to stay healthy, as well as Jose Iglesias’ inability to hit AAA pitching.  While the latter might change, it doesn’t seem like the former ever will, and Lowrie will always be a “10th man” type of player.

Keeping in mind the fact that Scutaro celebrated his 36th birthday yesterday, the Sox will need to brace themselves for the inevitable plummit in productivity which may or may not occur next season.  The easy approach would be to use a loose RHP/LHP platoon with Lowrie, who hits left-hand pitching very well.  A more bold approach would be to kick the tires on free-agent superstar Jose Reyes, shop Lowrie, and use Scutaro as a utility infielder. This, of course, is less likely.

Other notes:

• In relation to my Reyes note above, the worst possible effect of the John Lackey / Carl Crawford contracts would be Red Sox management and ownership becoming irrationally gun shy on the free agent market. Even ignoring the strong possibility that Crawford turns things around next season, there have been many, many success stories resulting from teams taking on long-term risk in free agency. Consider where the Yankees would have been without C.C. Sabathia over the past few years, or the Cardinals without Matt Holliday. Or, the 2004-2007 Red Sox without one Manuel Aristides Ramirez.  We can only hope that Ben Cherington isn’t the reactionary type.
• The Sox begin interviewing candidates for the manager role today, starting with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin. My early wager is on DeMarlo Hale being promoted internally, but I suppose a lot of that will depend on the scope of the political fallout (if any) from Terry Francona’s departure.

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By Jimmy, 10/25/2011 4:20 pm

Brand new Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington just now confirmed a rumor that had been floating around this morning: troubled pitcher John Lackey will indeed undergo Tommy John surgery. Recovery is typically 12-16 months, which means he will miss the entire 2012 season.

From looking at his track record over the course of the last several years, it’s pretty clear that his durability and effectiveness have both been steadily deteriorating, at a relatively young age. He has had bouts of elbow discomfort in the past, so the TJS news isn’t exactly a bombshell.

I’m not happy with his 2011 performance, but I’m also not very comfortable with the way he’s treated here.  From Bob Stanley, to Jose Offerman, to Julio Lugo, and now Lackey…the angry mob mentality displayed by most of the fan base just isn’t my cup of tea.

Here’s hoping for a year of tranquility.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 10/21/2011 12:57 pm

Pitching coach Curt Young is the latest staff member to grab the nearest unoccupied escape pod and blast his way to safety. Young, who I was very optimistic about when the Sox initially hired him last Novermber,  returns to his previous job in Oakland.

While the Red Sox clearly have their problems, the Oakland A’s have not had a winning season in 5 years.  I guess, sometimes, the low-hanging fruit tastes pretty sweet.

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By Jimmy, 10/19/2011 9:08 am

2004:  ”Oh look, they were drinking Jack Daniels and eating KFC!  LOL!  What a bunch of blue collar dirt dogs!  Look at them taking shots together. What great chemistry! This really was a team of destiny!”

2011: “Oh my God, they were drinking beer and eating Popeye’s! How DARE they disrespect the game like that!  They clearly lost all of their desire to win! I want a full investigation into this!  WHY WON’T ANYBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN?!”

The point is: as always, it’s all about winning. Public opinion will be framed around the on-field result. Kevin Millar could have passed around a spoonful of black tar heroin during the 2004 ALCS, and the media would have found a positive spin on it.

Interestingly enough, in both 2004 and 2011, the team was one strike away from a very, very different media narrative.

Some other thoughts on BeerGate:

• I felt a little better about the situation when I heard that the Lester/Beckett/Lackey trio was drinking Bud Light. These guys weigh 250 lbs, they would have to drink a gallon of that swill to feel any sort of impairment. If anything, it quenched their thirst.
• A lot of people are more outraged over the rumor that the pitchers might have been drinking in the dugout, as opposed to the clubhouse. But really, why does it matter? The situation is the same: drinking during a game in which they were not scheduled to pitch. Is the dugout somehow more sacred than the clubhouse?  It certainly doesn’t look like it, with all of the sunflower seeds and tobacco spit on the floor.
• It appears that everyone is assuming Larry Lucchino leaked this story, but I don’t buy it. If there’s one thing Lucchino is not, it’s stupid. He wouldn’t create this sort of shitstorm over his own organization. My guess is that the source is much lower in paygrade, someone you’ve probably never heard of. A middle-management type, or perhaps even a clubhouse employee.
• The one thing that I am a tad outraged over is that it appears that (according to Jon Lester’s rundown on the situation) some of the team was treating Terry Francona like the blind substitute teacher in a 6th grade social studies class. Just walking all over him with little regard to authority. Francona has always had a laissez-faire style of leadership, but it seems as if some of the players were taking advantage of that.

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By Jimmy, 10/12/2011 9:15 am

According to NBC Sports, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has agreed to a $15 million deal with the Chicago Cubs.

Can’t say I really blame him. The bar is set pretty low at Wrigley Field.

It would have been nice if he didn’t enter in to a bunch of high-risk long-term contracts in the two years prior to his exodus.  In the often-used Titanic analogy, this would be the equivalent of the captain jumping ship immediately after hitting the iceberg, and boarding a smaller, lesser-known ship.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 9/30/2011 10:11 am

According to various reports, the Red Sox and Terry Francona have mutually decided to part ways after 8 seasons.

We’ve seen many managerial regime changes here in Boston, most of them without much sentiment.

This one’s going to be tough.

Comments (5)

By Jimmy, 9/29/2011 6:23 am

What I would typically do at this point is write up an in-depth postmortem analysis on the season. However, my heart isn’t in it right now. The newspaper guys and talk-radio knuckleheads are surely reveling in the evens of past month, as it allows them to easily build narratives that capture the attention of the tortured locals. I won’t be one of them.

It would best for my mental health if I avoided all American sports media for a while. No big deal…I did it in 2003; it wasn’t so hard. Little things become a more difficult, such as going to the gym (they always have ESPN blasting on huge plasma screens), or engaging in the usual morning small-talk at work. After a while the hysteria dies away, and you can return to normalcy.

For now, I’m just staring blankly at my now-worthless ALDS tickets, trying to decide if I should burn them or save them as some sort of sick, demented piece of memorabilia.

I can’t quite decide.

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By Jimmy, 9/26/2011 9:26 am

9/13/11: Red Sox 7, Yankees 4

Box Score

When I tuned into the radio this morning, there was a lot of discussion on John Lackey, none of which had to do with anything he did on the field (in case you were wondering, he had a quality start, the first by a Red Sox pitcher in nearly two weeks). Apparently,  in his post-game interview, he complained about some paparazzi website harassing him about blah-blah-blah, and now the media are having a feeding frenzy on him.

You won’t find any of that here. Look, I’ve hated watching Lackey pitch this year. But what I hate more, exponentially more, is the whole pop culture atmosphere that exists today. Reality TV, gossip columns, all of that stuff is a scourge on Western society. (Wow, do I sound like a bitter old man!)

I can’t really blame the website that contacted Lackey, because they were just producing a product that is in high-demand: schadenfreude. Basically, what you are seeing is someone going through a horrible situation, and the general public reveling in it like a pig rolling around in its own waste. Welcome to 21st century America.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Jonathan Papelbon (2.1 perfect innings, 4 Ks, 48.0% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Scott Proctor (gave up a 3-run HR in the 14th inning, -51.3% WPA)

1. Jacoby Ellsbury hits a 3-run HR with 2 outs in the top of the 14th inning. (45.8% WPA)
2. Jonothan Papelbon strikes out AUstin Romine with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th  (16.8% WPA).
3. Jason Varitek hits a go-ahead RBI single with 1 out in the 7th (14.6% WPA).

“Time to grind and shine. If you don’t like this, you don’t have blood going through your veins. Right? If you don’t like this, if you’re not going to play tired, if you’re not going to play hurt, and you’re in this clubhouse, you ain’t got blood running through your veins.”

- Jonathan Papelbon

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By Jimmy, 9/25/2011 10:07 am

It’s always interesting to see how certain events are framed by the writers over at Redsox.com (the team’s official website). For example, after getting crushed by the Yankees 9-1 and having their best starter chased from the game in the 3rd inning, we click on the team website and see this:

Lester off as Red Sox’s progress stalls

Yes, that’s it. Their “progress” has “stalled”.  Just to recap, the “progress” includes going 5 and 17 in September, losing 6 out of their last 7, and setting up quite possibly the worst regular season choke in baseball history.

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By Jimmy, 9/19/2011 8:14 am

Per Buster Olney’s Twitter this morning:

 Elias (Sports Bureau): largest September deficit any team has overcome was 8 1/2 games,by the ’64 Cardinals. The Rays were nine games behind Boston Sept. 2.

There you have it. With 10 games left on the schedule, if the Red Sox manage to blow this 2-game Wild Card lead to Tampa Bay, it will be the worst choke in regular season history.

For what it’s worth, both Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings give the Sox a solid ~90% probability of holding their lead. Honestly, does anyone actually take comfort in those figures?

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By Jimmy, 9/14/2011 10:28 am

9/13/11: Red Sox 18, Blue Jays 6

Box Score

If you were to analyze the pool of baseball fans in America, at both ends of the spectrum you’d notice two extremes: the old school fan who shuns statistics and relies more on intuition and first-hand experiences, and the quantitative SABR type who embraces statistics and scoffs at the gut feeling approach to baseball analysis. I probably lean towards the latter. However, there’s one thing that the SABR extremists sometimes fail to recognize: sometimes it’s OK to be irrationally sentimental. After all, we’re spending our time obsessing over men who are paid vast fortunes to hit leather balls with wooden sticks, which is a very irrational act in itself.

Therefore, I think it’s OK to throw some props towards Tim Wakefield this morning. We don’t have to pretend that he’s having a good year, or that he pitched well last night, or that the win statistic is very meaningful. For better or for worse, milestones like this one are meaningful to most observers, and that alone makes them important.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Dustin Pedroia (4 for 5, 2 HRs, 4 runs, 5 RBI, 29.5% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Brandon Morrow (5 runs allowed in 5.1 innings, -41.9% WPA)

1. With the bases loaded and two outs in the 1st, Toronto first baseman David Cooper scoops up a routine grounder hit by Josh Reddick, and air-mails the ball over the pitcher covering first. Two runs score on the error. (16.0% WPA)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury hits a solo HR with 2 outs in the 4th (12.9% WPA).
3. Dustin Pedroia immediately follows Ellsbury’s HR with one of his own (12.7% WPA).

“Panic is unbecoming.”

- Larry Lucchino, Red Sox CEO

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By Jimmy, 9/13/2011 9:21 am

According to WEEI.com (despite their dreadful radio product, the blog is quite nice), Junichi Tazawa will be added to Boston’s expanded roster today, marking his return to the Major Leagues after 2-years of recovery from Tommy John surgery.

The Red Sox pitching staff has been decimated by injuries and ineffectiveness at a time where they really can’t afford it, so Tazawa’s call-up isn’t at all a ceremonial “let’s throw him a bone and give him a few garbage innings” gesture; it’s all hands on deck. In a few small sample of innings in Pawtucket (all in relief), Tazawa was very effective, striking out 19 hitters in 14.1 innings including a .160 batting average against left-handed hitters.

I’m guessing his usage will be in soft of a hybrid LOOGY/long relief role, where he could come in to face one hitter, or he could mop up for someone like Lackey if he shits the bed in the 3rd inning.

Other notes:

• Manny Ramirez continues to piss all over his legacy. Brick by brick, he’s dismantling the whole goofy teddy bear image, and replacing it with that of a unrepentant asshole.
• Old friend Mike Cameron was released by the Marlins, and may retire. He was actually playing fairly well for Florida, but it seems the move was more about arithmetic than it was performance.

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By Jimmy, 9/12/2011 8:15 am

9/11/11: Rays 9, Red Sox 1

Box Score

Hey, look, it’s our old friend: Humiliating Failure! It’s been years!  SO NICE TO SEE YOU.

That’s right folks, you can hold off a moment before planning that October trip into Boston, or maybe plan on going to the Aquarium or the MFA instead. After losing 5 in a row, the Red Sox are now just 3.5 games ahead of total disaster.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: B.J. Upton (4 for 4 with a grand slam, BB, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 runs, 16.6% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Jon Lester (4 innings, 8 hits, 3 walks, 4 runs, -26.4% WPA)

1. Ben Zobrist hits a bases-loaded single in the 1st (9.4% WPA)
2. David Ortiz lines out to shallow left field with the bases loaded and 1 out in the 3rd (8.6% WPA).
3. B.J. Upton hits a grand slam in the 5th, sealing the deal (8.5% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“If we keep on playing like that, we’ll be home in the tub.”

- David Ortiz, on his team’s plan for October

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By Jimmy, 9/8/2011 8:58 am

9/7/11: Blue Jays 11, Red Sox 10

Box Score

I’ve quickly gone through Tim Wakefield‘s game logs (no easy task for a guy who’s been in the Majors since the H.W. Bush administration), and from what I can tell, this is his longest streak of “winless” starts (7) since back in 2000.  Eleven years ago, when his teammates included the likes of Dante Bichette and Jose Offerman, Wakefield started 9 straight games without being credited with the victory.

I don’t think I need to explain the flaws of the Win statistic at this point, but Wakefield’s quest for win #200 is big deal simply because…it’s a big deal.  Or, as Bill Belichick might say: it is what it is.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Jose Bautista (1 for 2 with a double, 2 walks, 2 runs, 2 RBI, 43.1% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Dan Bard (5 runs allowed in the 8th inning, -42.3% WPA)

1. Edwin Encarnacion hits a bases-loaded double in the 8th, scoring all three runners (33.4% WPA)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury hits a 3-run HR in the 4th to give the Sox a 2-run lead  (30.2% WPA).
3. Jose Bautista walks with the bases loaded and two outs in the 8th, tying the game and setting up the Encarnacion double (26.7% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“We’re trying for him. He did his job today and I didn’t do mine.’’

- Dan Bard

Other Notes:

• Kyle Weiland will start lieu of Josh Beckett Saturday against the Rays.
• Clay Buchholz played long-toss yesterday, and it’s looking like he could very well return before the regular season ends.

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By Jimmy, 9/7/2011 8:50 am

9/6/11: Red Sox 14, Blue Jays 0

Box Score

After losing four out of their last five games and watching the divisional lead begin to slip away, the Red Sox took out their angst and frustration on a hapless Canadian baseball club, mashing the Toronto Blue Jays into paste in front of a horrified Rogers Centre crowd.

I think we’ve been waiting for a game like this for quite some time. The Sox had just about everything working right last night.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Adrian Gonzalez (3 for 5 with a double, 3 runs, 3 RBI, 15.8% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Luis Perez (8 runs allowed before getting yanked, -41.0% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

1. Adrian Gonzales gets the party started with an RBI double in the 1st  (9.3% WPA)
2. Carl Crawford hits another RBI double in the 1st  (8.2% WPA).
3. David Ortiz singles in the first to score Gonzalez (6.2% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“I think we’ve found a new six-hole hitter on the team”

- Marco Scutaro, having a little fun after going 4 for 5

Other Notes:

• According to Pete Abraham, Jon Lester is 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last 5 starts.
• The diagnosis on Josh Beckett is a bad ankle sprain, no surgery required.  He’ll miss 1 start at least. Obligatory worthless non-athlete anecdotal tidbit: a bad ankle sprain had me useless for a month back in my “prime” basketball days (by “prime”, I mean playing in a co-ed league with a bunch of hipsters).
• The AAA Pawtucket Red Sox begin their playoff series against the Iron Pigs of Lehigh Valley tonight.

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By Jimmy, 9/6/2011 9:06 am

9/5/11: Blue Jays 1, Red Sox 0 (11 innings)

Box Score

Prized Toronto rookie Brett Lawrie hit a walk-off home run in the 11th inning to beat the Red Sox, and unfortunately, that’s not the worst news SOx fans received on Labor Day. Josh Beckett left the game with a right ankle injury, of which the severity is not known.  Beckett is flying to Boston to have the ankle checked out.

Obviously, any serious injury to Beckett would be awful for Boston’s championship aspirations, given how thin the rotation is at the moment. No one really wants to see John Lackey pitch one of the first 3 games of the divisional series, but it might be a necessity.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Brett Lawrie (walk-off HR in 11th inning, 46.2% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Dan Wheeler (see above, -35.7% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

1. The HR, of course  (46.3% WPA)
2. Jonathan Papelbon strikes out Adam Lind in the 10th with 2 outs and the bases loaded (16.2% WPA).
3. Josh Reddick doubles with 1 out in the 9th (11.8% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“I could wake up tomorrow and feel like playing basketball. We’ll just see.”

- Josh Beckett, on the uncertainty of his injury

Please don’t.

Prospect Watch:

• AAA: Third baseman Will Middlebrooks, now the #1 rated prospect at soxprospects.com, went 1 for 3 with a HR in Pawtucket’s win over Rochester.  
  
• High A: Pitcher Stolmy Pimental, whose stock has dropped drastically after a disappointing season, provided fans with a glimmer of hope by pitching 7 strong innings and only yielding 2 hits.
• Low A: Second baseman Sean Coyle, went 3 for 5 with 2 home runs and 7 RBI in Greenville’s 11-4 rout.  Sean’s Isolated Power (Slugging % – Batting Average) is .217, which is amazing given his age, frame, and position.

Other Notes:

• As the minor league season winds down, I’ll be working on a final ranking list. It will be up in a week or so, most likely.
• Chris Jaffe takes us back to 10 years ago last Friday, when one of the more memorable Red Sox – Yankees games took place:  Mike Mussina’s near-perfect game broken up by “Jurassic” Carl Everett with 2 outs in the 9th. I remember watching that game at the White Horse Tavern (a vivid memory despite my inebriated state), and jeering bitterly at some college-aged Yankees fans who were loudly cheering on Mussina. There was a world of difference between then and now, in terms of the attitude amongst Sox fans.