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What what? Shortstops play defense too? How about that. Unfortunatly for my exercize, defense is almost impossible to measure objectively. I’m not ready to accept defeat, however. Therefore, here is the chart o’ stats. Check out Offense here. And now the stats:

2003	g	po	a	e	dp	fd%	RF	ZF	WS	1000	gb	A%	DEEdgar	131	166	368	15	72	0.973	4.19	0.870	3.62	3.23	1710	0.222	0.7119Nomar	131	177	386	15	70	0.974	4.38	0.852	5.29	4.64	1792	0.222	0.6973Jeter	96	128	213	12	42	0.966	3.59	0.780	1.45	1.75	1648	0.180	0.6959Tejada	136	202	429	16	79	0.975	4.70	0.824	6.01	5.09	1774	0.242	0.7334C’bera	137	239	392	16	91	0.975	4.79	0.870	6.56	5.65	1733	0.226	0.7121Furcal	129	196	394	28	86	0.955	4.67	0.812	3.83	3.42	1826	0.226	0.7133

Nuts and Bolts
The obvious numbers are on the left again. Games, Put outs, Assists, Errors, and Double plays are all forms of the accounting I mentioned earlier.

fd% is fielding percentage, which is figured by taking PO+A/PO+A+E. This is an inaccurate metric. Fielding % has alot of subjectivity in it (errors are the only completely subjective stat in baseball. You are penalized for plays the scorer thought you should make.) Errors also happen when you screw up a play that you might have had no business making in the first place.

RF is Range factor, which created a nice little fued between Rob Neyer and Peter Gammons a few years back. This is the ESPN version which is (PO+A)/9. Again, this is inaccurate because it doesn’t take pitching staff descrepencies into affect. A strike out, fly ball staff will have less groundballs, which mean less balls hit to shortstop. Less chance for the shortstop to make the play.

ZF is Zone factor, which also has alot of subjectivity involved. This metric, devised by STATS, Inc., measures a “zone” for each defender, and then they track the amount of balls fielded by the player in that “zone”. It’s nice window dressing, but because the “zones” are never really defined by STATS, they can’t be tracked by the player in the stands, and a player with exceptional range can make a play in another player’s zone, and he won’t get “credit” for the play. If I understand it correctly, which I probably don’t.

WS and 1000 are Win Shares, and Win Shares/1000 innings. Both are Jamesian inventions, and Win Shares have been talked about ad nauseum. The reason for adjusting for 1000 innings, is to keep from penalizing a player that only played 500 innings. The best example is above. Derek Jeter missed more time then the other guys, so if I just listed Win Shares, his totals would be terrible. As it turns out, his glove provides enough evidence for that. Something to remember…Win Shares do not measure fielding skill, rather how much the a player’s glove work contributes to his team winning. The Win Shares are provided by Baseball Graphs

GB is the amount of ground balls the team’s pitching staff had induced. A% is finally my own work. That is figured by taking the Estimated GB each staff has gotten for its shortstop, and then adjusting it for innings by LHP (Lefties get more groundballs to short and third, a faction of more righties in the lineups). Then I simply find out on how many balls each shortstop got an assist on. I hope that this has some accuracy in it since it doesn’t penalize shortstops on high strikeout staffs, or high flyball staffs.

DE is Defensive efficiency. This is for the team level. This is simply the amount of times that a team converts a ball in play to an out. I’m not sure who invented this metric, but Baseball Prospectus tracks DE all season right here.

Thoughts
*By any measure of objectivity, Derek Jeter is a good centerfielder waiting to happen.
*Furcal has an almost unholy amount of errors thus far. While 28 isn’t quite Offermanesque, it is a great great number.
*Renteria’s numbers generally don’t hash it out with his reputation as a very good glove man.
*Going by eye, I would say that Nomar has superior range at shortstop. I remember seeing him chasing balls into short left, jumping in the air, and slinging the ball across his body right to the first baseman to beat the runner by a step. That is why you can’t go by your eye. Whoever you see most often is the player that you are going to rate higher. Yankee fan Defenders of Jeter say that to appreciate the captian, you need to see him play every day. I would say, if you saw other shortstops everyday, then maybe you would see the obvious hole in the glove. That always pisses off Yankee fans. Try it, it’s fun.
*Orlando Cabrera put together the best season in baseball history at shortstop in 2001 according to the Win Shares method with 13.47 shares in 1407 2/3 innings.
*Miguel Tejada is one hell of a defensive player, by eye or spreadsheet.

Sooooo…who is the best defensive shortstop?

Orlando Cabrera is extremely slick with the glove. He plays on a horrible turf in Montreal. Insted of breaking down, or dutfully flopping on the ground in a futile attempt to grab a groudball, Cabrera is where singles go to die. And you know what, because he doesn’t embarass himself with the bat, he could fill the job as Everyday Shortstop on a contender, or a team with money (Baltimore are you listening?). Also, I purposely didn’t mention Alex Rodriguez simply because he hasn’t been in any stage of analysis so far, save for me coming up with clever names to reference him without actually calling him by name. He is a very good defensive shortstop in the Cal Ripken model. Cabrera is more in the Dal Maxvill with Greg Gagne’s bat catagory.

The rank:
1. Orlando Cabrera - Montreal
2. Miguel Tejada - Oakland
3. Nomar Garciaparra - Boston
4. Rafael Furcal - Atlanta
5. Edgar Renteria - St. Louis
6. Derek Jeter - New York

One man’s opinion of the best shortstops not named ARod:
1. Nomar Garciaparra - Boston
2. Miguel Tejada - Oakland
3. Derek Jeter - New York
4. Orlando Cabrera - Montreal
5. Rafael Furcal - Atlanta
6. Edgar Renteria - St. Louis

Thanks for sticking through me for my first To Be Continued episode…hopefully there will be more on the way.

In case you missed my recent rants, here are all the ones from the weekend that aren’t related to shortstops:

8/29 Tale of Two Shortstops
8/29 Manny out
8/29 Sox 10 Yanks 5
8/30 New York 10 Boston 7
8/31 WTF!?!?!?!?!
8/31 A few words of Clemens

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Today, Roger Clemens made his last start regular season start at Fenway Park. As a member of the New York Yankees. A few months ago, I had this conversation with a friend of mine, who is a Yankees fan.

Greg: Clemens is pitching against the Red Sox today.
Me: I know. I can’t stand him.
Greg: Why? He’s a great pitcher.
Me: Look at it this way. In college you start dating this great girl from Texas. She’s smart, funny and attractive. After you have been seeing each other for a while, then you realize that all your friends think she’s great too. For a few years, you realize you have the perfect girl for you and you propose. You get married, with a spectacular wedding. Right after you get married, some chinks start to show in the armor. She stops laughing at your jokes, she starts to nag more. She quits her job for a year, and puts on alot of weight. You come to the conclusion that she might be borderline insane. She picks fights over nothing, and starts to act more and more bizarrely. To top it all off, she won’t even give you the time of day in bed. So you tell her that you can’t deal anymore, and if she doesn’t go back to the way she was, then the marriage was over. She said fine, but she could only date you or a guy from home. Meanwhile, shes getting back into shape, as the marriage ends. She starts to work hard again, and she dates the strange Canadian in the same apartment. No matter, you move on to the incredibly hot Dominican girl, that is superior then the ex, and you are happy. All of a sudden, your ex-wife dumps the Canadian dude, and starts dating the loud, obnoxious rich guy that lives above you, and always steals your parking spaces. She is now in better shape then she was in college, and every time you see her, all she talks about is how happy she is with the new guy. Now, you are married to this Dominican girl, but every time you see the ex, she brags about how good the new guy is in bed, and how even we you guys were dating, she really wanted the Rich guy. And she says your dick is small. Suddenly all your friends are telling you how awesome the ex is, and how you should have never let her go. Thats how alot of Red Sox fans feel about Clemens.

I felt that way until the game today. As you can probably tell about my last post, I hated today’s game. I was never more pissed off watching a Sox game then I was when I saw the Red Sox fans giving Roger Clemens a standing ovation as he was taken out of the game. Then a funny thing happened. acknowledged the Boston fans for the first time since 1996.

Then an even funnier thing happend. I didn’t hate Clemens anymore. I didn’t really feel anything at all. Hatred softened into ambivalence. I feel like I grew a little bit just watching that moment.

Before, I said that Clemens should wear a dollar sign cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. One thing I didn’t want him to wear was the Red Sox ‘B’ on it. Now, I’m not so sure. All I can say about Clemens now was that he was a great player, and one of the best pitchers of all time. What I can’t say is that I hate him anymore.

Tomorrow, Boston travels to Philadelphia to face the Phillies. Jeff Suppan faces off against Bret Myers.

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I can not rationally discuss today’s Red Sox Yankees game. No analysis really, because this has been a wholey depressing game.

The shortstop defense post comes later tonight.

SHORTSTOP WATCH

8/29    ab  r  h rbi bb  k 2b 3b hr  ave  ob%  slugNomar   5   2  3  2   0  2  1  0  1 .600 .600 1.400 Jeter   4   1  2  0   1  1  1  0  0 .500 .600  .750

8/30    ab  r  h rbi bb  k 2b 3b hr  ave  ob%  slugNomar   5   2  3   2  0  0  1  1  0 .600 .600 1.200 Jeter   4   2  2   0  0  0  1  0  0 .500 .500  .750

8/31    ab  r  h rbi bb  k 2b 3b hr  ave  ob%  slugNomar   5   0  0   0  0  1  0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  Jeter   4   1  1   0  0  0  0  0  0 .250 .250  .250

Series  ab  r  h rbi bb  k 2b 3b hr  ave  ob%  slugNomar   15  4  6   4  0  2  2  1  1 .400 .400 .867Jeter   12  4  5   0  1  1  2  0  0 .417 .462  .538

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Somewhere in the journey from Mark Belanger to Alex Rodriguez, shortstops learned to hit. Here is a chart with some rudimentary statistics (accounting) and three columns of SABR worthy statistics (metrics):

2000	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	562	156	32	1	16	63	77	21	13	73	4.339	703.0Nomar	529	197	51	3	21	61	50	5	2	128	9.880	1600.5Jeter	593	201	31	4	15	68	99	22	4	115	7.446	1206.3Tejada	607	167	32	1	30	66	102	6	0	102	6.004	972.7C’rera	422	100	25	1	13	25	28	4	4	49	3.862	625.7Furcal	455	134	20	4	4	73	80	40	14	72	5.605	908.0

2001	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	493	128	19	3	10	39	73	17	4	56	3.824	619.4Nomar	83	24	3	0	4	7	9	0	1	15	6.485	1050.5Jeter	614	191	35	3	21	56	99	27	3	111	6.708	1086.8Tejada	622	166	31	3	31	43	89	11	5	102	5.713	925.5C’rera	626	173	41	6	14	43	54	19	7	92	5.138	832.4Furcal	324	89	19	0	4	24	56	22	6	41	4.341	703.2

2002	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	544	166	36	2	11	49	57	22	7	97	6.325	1024.6Nomar	635	197	56	5	24	41	63	5	2	116	6.678	1081.8Jeter	644	191	26	0	18	73	114	32	3	108	6.150	996.2Tejada	662	204	30	0	34	38	84	7	2	125	6.984	1131.3C’rera	563	148	43	1	7	48	53	25	7	64	3.843	622.6Furcal	636	175	31	8	8	43	114	27	15	83	4.538	735.2

2003	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	499	167	39	1	12	45	40	27	5	84	6.163	998.3Nomar	554	179	34	12	23	32	52	15	5	106	7.216	1169.0Jeter	396	126	22	3	9	38	74	9	4	70	6.644	1076.3Tejada	538	147	37	0	23	40	55	7	0	85	5.621	910.6C’rera	525	155	36	1	17	50	50	21	2	82	5.563	901.3Furcal	556	159	27	8	15	49	63	22	2	89	5.942	962.7

Total	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	2098	617	126	7	49	196	247	87	29	311	5.144	833.3Nomar	1801	597	144	20	72	141	174	25	10	364	7.709	1248.8Jeter	2247	709	114	10	63	235	386	90	14	404	6.719	1088.5Tejada	2429	684	130	4	118	187	330	31	7	414	6.104	988.8C’rera	2136	576	145	9	51	166	185	69	20	287	4.622	748.8Furcal	1971	557	97	20	31	189	313	111	37	286	5.127	830.6

Nuts and Bolts
Because of Blogger space, I needed to cut some names. Nomar is Garciaparra (duh). Edgar is Edgar Renteria. C’rera is Expos shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Also, the cut off was 2000 because that was the season when all 6 guys became regulars. For the record, and the sake of fairness, Jeter very well could have been the AL MVP in 1999, and Bill James went so far as to call him the best player in baseball that year.

Now, some explaination of the metrics. RC Est is the estimate of how many runs each player contributed to his team’s offense. This is a Jamesian invention that went from simply (Times on Base*Total Bases)/Plate Apperences. The formula I use is a James formula that is much much more intense. Also, if you add up the runs created for each player over the course of a few seasons, you will find that it is equal to the amount of runs that the team has scored. It’s pretty accurate for 3 seasons and more.

RC/27 is basically Runs created, divided by the Outs the player used up (essentially AB-H+CS+GIDP+SF+SH), multiplied by 27. 27 is of course the amount of outs in a 9 inning baseball game.

Player runs is how many runs a team would score if a 9 player lineup was made of that player, and then played for 162 games. I said play alot in that last sentence. I do it for you, the reader.

Now, what does it all mean? I honestly don’t know. Stats are fun though. They tell you things like “Hey, how many times did Jeter walk in 2001?” and “Hey, who hit more home runs in 2000, Cabrera or Furcal?” Analysis comes from drawing conclusions about the accounting that Elias Sports Bureau does for us. As Baseball Prospectus mentions from time to time, stats are just accounting.

Drawing conclusions, however, are much more involved. Essentially to draw an adequet conclusion, you need to toss all the numbers in a blender, and test it for accuracy. Due to being born in 1980 (3 years after the inaugural Bill James’ Baseball Abstracts), alot of people have already done the “blender test” for me. The metrics used are pretty accurate. Take Jeff’s word for it. That’s the second time I did it for you. I’m your stat whore, David Stern.

Thoughts
Now, what are my conclusions?
*The National League guys are in a completely different caste then the AL guys. Sorry St. Louis, Montreal, and Atlanta, but your good shortstops aren’t quite so good.
*Miguel Tejada was actually deserving of the MVP award in the AL…if you only count AL shortstops not playing in Texas.
*Derek Jeter is having a pretty good year after 3 years of decline. Maybe he can wrest the Bronze Metal for AL Shortstops back.
*As good as people say Renteria has been this year, very quietly, he had a tremendous 2002.
*Orlando Cabrera goes hot and cold in the four years of this study. He’s like the Columbian 6-man version of Bret Saberhagen.
*Some people reading this forget who Sabes was, or only remember him as the oft-injured Boston starter. That is a damn shame.
*Rafael Furcal ’s shoulder problems (from sprain in April 01 to the seperation) probably cost him 2 years of good hitting. The legs were willing…

Now down to the real question…who is the best offensive shortstop?
In a word…Nomar.

Garciaparra lost a year to a split tendon in his wrist. He suffered that injury in September 1999 vs. Baltimore. So those numbers for 2000 were compiled with a serious wrist injury. Surgery in 2001, sapped some of his power, but that seems to be back in spades in 2003. Hurt Nomar is still a better hitter then all of these guys. Nomar has faults, but he’s the best hitting shortstop this side of Arlington.

The rank:
1. Nomar Garciaparra - Boston
2. Derek Jeter - New York
3. Miguel Tejada - Oakland
4. Rafael Furcal - Atlanta
5. Edgar Renteria - St. Louis
6. Orlando Cabrera - Montreal

Later comes defense…

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Boston pitching was knocked around like a prison bitch by New York’s hitters. All and all, it was a depressing game by the Olde Towne Team. Pedro Martinez, who is clearly still fighting off some sickness, was beat up allowing 4 hits in a row, and 5 out of 6 hitters. Martinez only lasted 4 innings in this game, making the third game in a row where the Boston ace couldn’t hold a lead against the Yankees.

Then a funny thing happend…Bronson Arroyo channeled Mike Timlin and pitched 3 innings of excellent relief. The last third of an inning, he gave up a hit, and Alan Embree was called in. Embree prompty poured gasoline on the fire and the Yankees went up 8-4. Sox fought back to 8-7 against Nelson and Rivera, but ultimately, Bill Mueller struck out on a eye high fast ball and the rally was dead.

What the might be the most frustrating part of the game happend in the top of the ninth. Byung-Hyun Kim relieves Embree. After retiring Williams, Hideki Matsui hit a nubber up the middle that he beat out for a base hit. Then, on a full count, Kim throws Posada a slider that is right on the black, low and away. Posada swung and missed, on what was almost a completely unhittable pitch.

Except he swung and connected and drove the ball halfway up the stands in centerfield. Posada knocked his second homerun of the game on an excellent pitch, and so the myth that Kim can’t beat the Yankees lives on. At least Tim McCarver has something to talk about during games.

All and all, a truely depressing game for Sox fans. Yankees played well and beat the Sox pitching pretty badly. And Fox announcers, which have been nothing short of horrible since they recieved the contract, can do things like call Alfonso Soriano, Rafael (the Seattle Mariners’ relief pitcher. Many Yankee fans had never heard of him), and say how Bronson Arroyo is just trying to hang on in his second big league game, despite spending 3 seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Bad, bad day to watch a Fox game.

As for the shortstop watch…both guys had good games. And as been the case the last 5 years, Nomar had the superior numbers and Jeter’s team came out ahead. The offensive breakdown will come tonight or tomorrow morning, with defense coming tomorrow night or Monday morning.

SHORTSTOP WATCH

8/29    ab  r  h rbi bb  k 2b 3b hr  ave  ob%  slugNomar   5   2  3  2   0  2  1  0  1 .600 .600 1.400 Jeter   4   1  2  0   1  1  1  0  0 .500 .600  .750

8/30    ab  r  h rbi bb  k 2b 3b hr  ave  ob%  slugNomar   5   2  3   2  0  0  1  1  0 .600 .600 1.200 Jeter   4   2  2   0  0  0  1  0  0 .500 .500  .750

Series  ab  r  h rbi bb  k 2b 3b hr  ave  ob%  slugNomar   10  4  6   4  0  2  2  1  1 .600 .600 1.300Jeter   8   3  4   0  1  1  2  0  0 .500 .556  .750

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Red Sox take battle 14 to even the season series at 7 games a piece. Lowe “earned” his 14th win with a gutsy 6 ip, 5 run, 5 hit, and 3 walk performance. Sarcasm aside, the bullpen pitched well again, as the Yankees were held in check from the 6th inning on. Timlin again (yawn) pitched well. Scotty the Left flung at least 6 different kinds of curveballs in keeping the Yankees off the bases. As for Scotty the Right…at least he didn’t give up any runs.

Grady still made me scratch my head when he took Sauerbeck out in the 9th with Nick Johnson due up. Johnson is a left handed hitter. Sauerbeck was aquired to face lefties. Christ Grady, this isn’t rocket science! Williamson ended up walking Johnson, which is something that Sauerbeck could have done too. Oh well, every dark cloud has a silver lining, and every gold nugget has a speck of shit on it.

As for the Yankees, they really hacked at just about everything up there, with only Johnson, and Jeter looking like they had any semblence of an offensive game plan up there. Also, it was brought to my attention that Jose Contreras looks like Simon Adebisi from OZ. I have visions of Contreras wearing a wife beater, have a hat cocked on the back of his head, sniffing heroin, and raping in the shower. I think it goes without saying that Contreras is now my favorite Yankee.

SHORTSTOP WATCH

        ab  r  h rbi bb  k 2b 3b hr  Nomar   5   2  3   2  0  2  1  0  1Jeter   4   1  2   0  1  1  1  0  0 

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WBZ’s Bob Lobel and WEEI report that Manny Ramirez is out of today’s game with a severely sore throat.

ESPN’s Peter Gammons reports he is out with a stomach bug.

Eitherway, Ramirez looks like he’s out tonight and might be gone for the weekend. Obviously, this puts a damper on the weekend series with the Yankees. Bobby Valentine types might say how important it would be to get Manny back in the dugout/clubhouse “for the team”. It is definately more important to make sure that the whole team doesn’t end up puking in the Fenway bathrooms.

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The Yankees come into Boston tonight for a 3 game tilt. So far, the Bronx dwellers hold a 1 game lead in the season series, 7-6. Also, word is from the Bronx that the Yankees are still waiting for a Red Sox collapse. Yup, they do every year, so it will happen again. Still waiting…

I have six shortstops for you out there in internet land to look at:

           h   2b 3b hr  bb  k  sb cs   ba   ob   sl rc/27 Renteria  165  37  1 12  45 40  26  5 .333 .386 .485 6.046Jeter     124  21  3  9  37 73   9  4 .316 .384 .454 6.623Nomar     176  32 12 22  32 50  15  5 .321 .361 .545 7.058Tejada    146  37  0 23  40 55   7  0 .273 .327 .472 5.686Cabrera   152  35  1 17  50 50  21  2 .292 .350 .462 5.497Furcal    156  27  8 15  49 63  22  2 .283 .344 .443 5.409

These are generally considered the best six shortstops in baseball this season not named Rodriguez. Just give a thought to which one you want. Who you think will help your team win? If you ask a Yankee fan, what Jeter lacks in numbers, he makes up for in leadership, character, and clutch ability. If you ask a Red Sox fan, Nomar is a better shortstop, period. Offensively and defensively.

Now you have the theme of the weekend. Boston vs. New York, and my attempt to show how much each shortstop is worth to his team, and by Monday, hopefully I can have a definite shortstop ranking.

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Red Sox reaquired Lou Merloni from the San Diego Padres for Portland (AA) relief pitcher Rene Miniel.

From ESPN.com

Sweet Lou redux

Utility infielder Lou Merloni returned to the Red Sox on Aug. 28 in a trade that sent minor league pitcher Rene Miniel to the Padres. Merloni, who moved back and forth between Boston and Triple-A Pawtucket the last five seasons, had been claimed on waivers by San Diego on March 25. Merloni is a native of Framingham, Mass. Except for playing part of the 2000 season in Japan, he had played his entire career in the Red Sox organization. Miniel, a right-hander, played with Double-A Portland this season.

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Derek Zemstag at Baseball Prospectus has a free column up talking about the AL Cy Young picture. As usual, the column is pretty good and gives some clear headed analysis. No mention of AL Cy Young Favourite™ Roy Halladay though.

Breaking Balls: AL Cy Young Race

My ballot right now:
1. Tim Hudson
2. Estiban Loaiza
3. Pedro Martinez
4. Mike Mussina
5. AL Cy Young Favourite™ Roy Halladay

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Just a quick hit today. Red Sox beat the Blue Jays, thus handing AL Cy Young Favourite™ Roy Halladay a loss. Halladay ended up dropping to 17-6 after giving up 11 hits and 6 runs in 7.1 innings.

Oakland made short work of the Orioles 6-2, and Tampa Bay doubled up Seattle 8-4. Therefore Oakland has taken over first place in the West. If you are a frequent visitor to Dewey’s House, you might remember that on August 19th, I said this:

Oh well, the Sox are 5.5 games behind the Yankees, and with only 38 more games to play, the division might be out of reach for the Boston 9. In the West, Oakland is 4 games behind Seattle, and 4 games is alot to make up in 38 games as well.

In response, all I can say is damn you Billy Beane, damn you to hell.

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In a 7-7 game in the 8th inning yesterday, Toronto second baseman, and switch hitter, Orlando Hudson led off the inning against Scott Sauerbeck. Due up that inning was Mike Bordick, right handed batter, and Frank Catalanotto, a southpaw. None of these Blue Jays are particularly good at hitting left handed pitching, and Scotty the Left has an appropriate nickname.

If you look at the game logs, you know what happened. Sauerbeck continues to not be able to get anyone out. Williamson comes in and pitches about as well as Rudy Saenez did. After the blow up, Alan Embree comes in and stops the bleeding. The end result is a five run inning, all on the shoulders of pitchers named Scott. That leaves one question?

Why are the team’s two best relievers sitting in the bullpen?

Mike Timlin and Alan Embree have been as close to lights out as you can be lately, and they sit in the bullpen seed spitting, while the game burns. Grady Little/Dave Wallace did well to get Suppan in there, as he held Toronto in check for three innings, but why couldn’t they tell that neither Scotty is particularly adept at retiring batters? This team brings the frustrating.

On the lighter side, they played Rally Karaoke Guy, and the Red Sox promptly scored five runs. I’m thinking about playing a video of Kevin Millar lip syncing next time a need a few runs in wiffle ball.

Speaking of Millar, in the 9th, he lofted a fly ball to right centerfield. Vernon Wells tracked it down, but it hit the railing on the corner of the Red Sox bullpen. Hilarity ensued as the ball shot past Wells, into left center field. Millar was chugging all the way and ended up with an inside the park homerun. Kevin Millar had an inside the park home run. The best parts were that he didn’t look like he needed oxygen and an IV drip in the dugout. Also, where was Frank Catalanotto on that play? As the ball rolled to the scoreboard, he was no where to be found.

I saw one of the funniest ejections of all time last night, as Carlos Tosca was screaming about a close play at second Lou Pinella style. I didn’t think the old boy had it in him. Face was red, hat was off, crew chief had to restrain him. Good times.

In parting, I have to say if I saw JP Ricchardi on the streets of New York, I wouldn’t buy a watch from him.

Tonight is John Burkett vs. AL Cy Young Favourite™ Roy Halladay

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Our friends over at Baseball Prospectus have an awfully interesting page over there called Adjusted Standings.

It has the Red Sox in first place in the American League East, about two games ahead of the Yankees in the most important “W3″ column. I could explain the way the standings work in more detail but Baseball Prospectus does a much better job of that than I could so I will just let you take a look at their site. In short what it does though is it projects runs scored and runs against based on EQR and EQR against, adjusted for differences in opponents (in the W3 column). Then, it simply applies Bill James’ Pythagorean Theory, which without the EQR adjustments and based simply on runs and runs allowed, are displayed in the “W1-L1″ column.

So the Red Sox, when adjusted for how well they have pitched and hit based on EQR and EQRA, are the best team in their division. The natural next step is to answer why they have failed to score as much as their EQR would project and furthermore, why they have given up more runs than their EQRA would project.

I think I have some answers, specifically two ways in which the Yankees have outperformed the Red Sox that EQR and EQRA do not measure; pitching with runners in scoring position as well as home run hitting with men on base.

Let’s compare the Red Sox and Yankees pitching staffs in terms of OPS against:

Yankees: .722
Red Sox: .746

There are only five teams that separate the two here. The Yanks rank eighth in Major League Baseball, the Sox fourteenth.

How about OPS with no runners on:

Yankees: .722
Red Sox: .691

In this situation, the Yankees remain the same but the Red Sox improve and do so fairly dramatically. This means that the Red Sox are doing their best pitching when they can be hurt the least, with nobody on.

How about OPS against with runners in scoring position?

Yankees: .710
Red Sox: .796

Here is the enormous difference. The Yankees do their best pitching when they can be hurt the most while the Red Sox do their worst pitching in these same exact situations. Obviously, this can lead to an enormous disparity in runs allowed.

On the offensive side, the Yankees have hit 184 Home Runs this season and 99 have been solo shots. That’s 54%. The Red Sox have hit 191 Home Runs and 123 have been with nobody on base. That’s 64%. It’s also been quite costly in terms of total runs scored.

What this all means is that a closer look reveals that a large part of the difference in the actual standings can be attributed to timeliness. As stated, the Red Sox do their worst pitching when they are most vulnerable. In these same situations, the Yankees do their best. Similarly, when a home run delivers the softest blow, the Sox pound ‘em out like no other team. With men on, they don’t hit the long ball quite so prolifically.

Surely there is some Yankee fan out there that thinks he knows why all of this happens. The Yankees are the Yankees after all and the Sox, no matter how good they really are, still are the Sox. Personally, I think that stuff is bunk. That the Red Sox have had less timely pitching and home run hitting than the Yankees means nothing in terms of actual performance. It is mere happenstance.

That it is unlikely this pattern will continue ought to provide even more reason for hope around the Hub.

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I promise not to bitch about the media today.

I’ve found that I’ve been doing that alot lately, probably because that has been the biggest story swurling around the Red Sox right now, and I won’t bitch about them anymore, by cracky. Of course now I am reaching for something to write about.

Oh yeah, the Red Sox swept the Mariners, winning yesterday afternoon 8-1. That makes the scores for this series 6-4, 7-6, 6-1, and 8-1.

Now I know why Shaughnessy is so negitive (I can’t talk about this column. It would break my rule. Read it and imagine. Just don’t read it around your dog), there isn’t much to write about after a four game sweep of a good team, while in the midst of a five game winning streak. I suppose I could file a game report, but Aaron Gleeman did one and it’s better then anything I want to put the effort in this morning.

Just some thoughts on the game:
*It was Vermont Day. Congratulations Vermont.
*Bronson Arroyo made his Red Sox debut and notched his first save. Essentially, this appearence renders saves meaningless.
*Ichiro took the collar, 0-4. While Ichiro is a very good hitter, I have no idea why he is being trumpted as the MVP of the American League. Bret Boone is having a better year then Ichiro. Then again, he doesn’t have a high batting average and no power.
*Grady Little mananged a good game yesterday. No smarmy remark.

How about that…no media anger. I knew I could do it! Toronto comes to town tonight, Wakefield vs. Hendrickson.

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Sox win 6-1. 1:05 game today. Rumors of this season’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Thats not the heating up I’m talking about.

Pedro Martinez appearently is leaving Boston after 2004. If we take the statement at its face, then, presumably, this is a responce to the constent beating Pedro took on WEEI after he called in sick with pharyngitis. If we take this statement without context, then Pedro is not only willing to walk when 2004 is over, but seems like he has his mind made up.

In short, Pedro is absolutely right to think that. Boston fans on the radio have become so jaded, and psuedo-passionate that they lose perspective on what is right or wrong. Every low is the low point in the franchise, and every high is still a low. The Red Sox haven’t won a World Series because Manny, Pedro, and Nomar make $43 million dollars, and because of that, when they do something we don’t like we have the right to treat them subhumanly. We got to keep reminding people how much those stars make, and we have to keep putting those uppity athletes in their place.

That is why I don’t listen to sports radio anymore. The only people stupider then the ones that host are the ones that call.

Also, a criticism is that Pedro should shut up and play baseball. When he tryed that, some fans, and more columnists said, “Pedro isn’t talking to the media? A pox on his house!” So, should he talk or not? Should he only talk when he’s being a good organizational soldier? Should he only talk when it is convienent to criticize him?

My thoughts: Pedro shouldn’t talk to the media. Whenever he does, he alienates a section of the Red Sox fandom. These are the people who say that they are “tired of the prima donna act” and the bigger that group is, the more trouble Pedro will have. This is already starting to remind me of the Mo Vaughn situation, and that acrimony was tough to stomach. Media gets more viewers/readers/listeners/hits when they are grinding an axe. Fans should not let them add the “We ran the Dominican Diva out of town” feather in their cap.

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A modest winning streak is just what the doctor ordered. After predicting death-by-Mariner for the Boston 9, the “Season ain’t over yet” crowd is growing bigger by the day. The Red Sox have started fighting back against the creme of the American League crop, and I for one realized that the Sox ain’t dead yet.

Yesterday, however, didn’t really inspire confidence. Manny got on base 4 times and , Millar hit a double that would have been much easier if a top 3 centerfielder didn’t play for Seattle, and Mike Timlin proved again why he’s the most underappreciated reliever in Grady Little’s Box of Bullpen Toys. Those are all very good.

The very bad came with Manny’s baserunning blunder (call time then wander, bro), Grady’s mishandling of the bullpen, a terrible sun in right (it was so bad yesterday in the bleachers that I had on SPF45 and got roasted), and BH Kim’s inability to waste a pitch.

Kim, Trot and Manny don’t need to worry. They are all good enough players to not expect the silliness that happend yesterday, even though a guy behind me thought that Manny should be traded for someone with a brain. The Grady Bullpen Project is much different though.

In the moves of the truley bizarre, Little brought in Scott Sauerbeck to face Ben Davis, Mark McLemore, and Mike Cameron. The first two guys are switch hitters who hit better from the right side, and Cameron is a righty. Scotty the Left is a specialist, who with the Red Sox has a .527 ops against vs. lefties, and a 1.409 ops against vs righties. Essentially, Sauerbeck turns righties into Barry Bonds in this small sample. Now, this “worked” because Sauerbeck retired Davis, and after McLemore and Cameron reached, retired Randy Winn. Little then called on Todd Jones to coerce a pop up from Bret Boone, ending the inning. Alan Embree started then 9th to pitch to While Scott Williamson and Mike Timlin sat in front of me in the bullpen, Little then called on Byung-Hyun Kim for the 4th straight day. Kim didn’t have it, and was rocked. This is the first time Kim’s been used in 4 straight this year. Only then did Timlin come into the game to pitch a ho hum perfect 10th inning.

Yes the Red Sox won, but it was a most frustrating victory. Taking into account the last two Red Sox managers, Jimy Williams, and Grady Little, the Red Sox (hyperbole alert!) have to lead the majors in frustrating wins. If only you could combine Little’s offensive ideas with Williams’ bullpen management skills, and take out the penchant for the bizarre, then you would have yourself a very good manager.

But you can’t. The Red Sox will still win, and I will still take Advil.

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When news of Pedro’s illness broke last night, the 2003 Boston Red Sox had officially hit rock bottom.

For the fourth year in a row the Sox were in full downward-spiral mode and things were not looking good. Coming off two gut-wrenching losses to the Oakland Athletics and three straight losses overall, fans around these parts had all but given up. Then news that Pedro would miss his start broke. Many (including me I am ashamed to say) initially accused Pedro of childish shenanigans, especially just twenty-four hours after his decision to skip the team photograph on Wednesday (not that there is any logic in that whatsoever). You would have thought it was the nail in the 2003 Red Sox’ coffin. Admittedly, the thought crossed my mind.

Then something funny happened. More accurately, much of the negativity surrounding the club around dinner time slowly but surely took a turn for the positive. The Red Sox came out swinging against young Oakland phenom Rich Harden and wound up winning 14-5. Details started to surface and it became apparent that Pedro really was sick. Mark Mulder went to the disabled list. Kevin Millar started singing and dancing on the jumbotron. The Saugus Little League team pulled off a miracle win in Williamsport. All of the doom and gloom of the early evening gave way to a renaissance of the era of good feeling - an era when balls flew out of the yard and emotional wins were the norm…a time when ground balls found holes and line drives eluded opposing fielders. Oh it was a magical time. It was…July.

That’s how damn fickle we are in these parts - just three weeks removed from maybe the most uplifting moment of the new Sox millenium, the Sunday night come-from-behinder vs. the Yanks, much of “the nation” was bailing.

There’s something to be learned in all of this. Many of us (I am by no means excluding myself here) need to look at facts and while we’re at it, take a closer look at what’s really taking place on the field - not just the wins and losses. The Red Sox have not been playing all that badly. They gave up three hits Tuesday night to Oakland - and lost. They smacked eighteen hits on Wednesday night - and lost. They also played quite well last night and happened to win. So thrice they outplayed Oakland and twice they happened to goof it up. Big deal. There are plenty of games left and there is not even a shred of doubt in my mind that this team is better than Oakland. Hopefully that manifests itself in the form of superior play and many more wins than their Bay Area counterparts.

As far as the off the field stuff, I hope everyone can put it to rest. Pedro was sick. Move on. Kevin Millar got a little yappy. Oh well, this stuff is emotional and he blew off some steam. Last night there were clips of a teenaged Millar dancing around to Bruce Springsteen in what had to be one of the funniest scenes I have witnessed in a while. Again, it’s over. Move on.

The Red Sox are a very good team and as long as they have even neutral luck, they should win the wild card. With some good luck, they ought to breeze.

Then we will look back on this 72 hour period or so and remember it for the utter silliness that characterized it.

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How about that. Pedro was actually sick. Millar really didn’t say the fans were negative. Lucchino said that the photo issue wasn’t really an issue (he joked about it during the post game show). Oh yeah, the Red Sox have offense again, pasted the A’s 14-5.

Today was an absolute circus because of the stuff that was going on before the game, and the circus had a nice fireworks display during the actual baseball game.

Manny broke out of his slump with 2 doubles, and a homer. Ortiz hit one of his tall jacks. The Sox were very good with the bases occupied, unlike yesterday’s disaster. There was a video played by the Red Sox that showed Kevin Millar, dressed like Bruce Springsteen and dancing, while doing kareoke to “Born in the USA”. Good times, noodle salad.

Pedro was in the hospital for six hours getting tests done. I for one feel like an ass for even thinking that he was “throwing a bitchfit” as I wrote. Sorry Pedro, don’t kick me out of the club. Really the only people that seem to be all that worried about the lack of Pedro were the people who make money/get notoriety in their “bashing Pedro” niche. That would be talk radio, and certain “fan” sites. These two groups tend to love to pat themselves on the back on a job well done, showing that uppity Pedro who’s boss. Good job guys, way to stay on the pulse of an issue. Hang up on fans or call them “apologists” for telling the truth when your own opinion will do. Alright, enough Pedro preaching.

Bob Rogers and Jim Rice said today that Millar was misquoted in the Boston Globe when he said that the fans we’re negative in Boston. If he was, then you think that they would ask Red Sox beat writer Gordon Edes about it then, eh?

Lucchino said that the “photogate” was a non-issue. Much adeiu about nothing, said the Red Sox CEO. And Millar said that the media outlets are negative…what was he thinking. Millar still shouldn’t have said anything about the media, but that doesn’t mean that he was wrong.

I promise the next post won’t have the bitterness that this one did. Unless Manny gets shot, and the “fan” sites say how he should suck it up, pull the bullet out himself, and play, rather then whine about “not being able to feel his legs”

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Not 10 minutes after that last post, I stumble on to the Red Sox website and see this headline…

Sox call on Fossum to pull closer

The Red Sox will call on Casey Fossum, filling in for an ill Pedro Martinez tonight, to avoid being swept at home for the first time this season. Boston also needs the win to pull within one game of Oakland in the Wild Card race. Oakland counters with rookie Rich Harden.

Awesome.

If Pedro is really sick, then that makes this start and the whole photo thing a non-issue. Get better Pedro.

If Lucchino desided skipping Pedro is punishment for missing the photo, then Larry needs to be taken to the woodshed. Don’t sabotage your chance to win a ballgame by having a penis measuring contest.

If Pedro is throwing a bitchfit and called in sick because of what Lucchino said, then Pedro needs to be taken to the woodshed previously occupied by Lucchino.

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As is custom here with the Boston Red Sox, when it rains it pours.

Two stories have broke today after one of the most frustrating loses of the year.

The first was Happy Kevin Millar turning into Whining Kevin Millar.
The second is Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino having some harsh words for Pedro Martinez.

Millar’s issue seems to be that the Boston sports media and fans are too negative. This isn’t really unchartered territory as, on this Red Sox team Garciaparra, Ramirez, Martinez, Lowe, and Jones have all either publically said the media is negitive, or just refused to speak to them.

In any event, Kevin Millar, coming from known sports media hotbed Florida, thinks that the media and fans should take it easy on the team. Now, I agree that the media and fandom in Boston is more negitive then most (except you, Philadelphia, you battery throwing ponces), after the way the team has been playing, its time to make it known that its time to stop having fun and start winning some ball games. Millar should quit worrying about what the media writes, and worry more about helping his team win, which is something he has done all year.

Sox fans, stop bitching. The season isn’t over. Just because Millar shouldn’t have said what he did doesn’t mean he was wrong.

As for Pedro, appearently, he skipped the team’s official photo session, for the 4th time in 6 years. Sox President Larry Lucchino is appearently pissed, saying this morning on WEEI:

“It’s not too much to ask him to show up. Someone will talk to him, either the manager, or the GM, or me. He has a history of this… in six years, he’s made two pictures. It’s a little bit troublesome… the whole organization was there, it would have been nice… there’ll be some kind of discipline.”

Thanks to Red Sox Dirt Dog for that quote.

As far as the clubhouse goes, this looks like it will hurt the team. After all, professionals probably will be pissed when one of their own acts unprofessionally. Is this Pedro pulling his star status again? Does it show that he doesn’t care about the team? Does it show that he doesn’t care about the fans?

I don’t think so. I don’t really think it shows anything more then a player missing a photo. Players miss photos all the time. Now, from all accounts, Lucchino is a smart man. He helped get Camden Yards opened and PETCO park built. He aslo seems to be quite media savvy. But I really don’t know if he’s the best guy in the organization at handling the players. We can sit here at our computers and chastise Pedro Martinez, or in Lucchino’s case, do it on the radio. But as of now, no news paper had picked up the story, and very few fans could even point out the other 3 years he skipped the picture.

Pedro Martinez and Kevin Millar. In June, you would have had nonissues. Its too bad its August now.