Looking at Shortstops - Offense or:How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Long Bomb
Somewhere in the journey from Mark Belanger to Alex Rodriguez, shortstops learned to hit. Here is a chart with some rudimentary statistics (accounting) and three columns of SABR worthy statistics (metrics):
2000 ab h 2b 3b hr bb k sb cs RC Est RC/27 Player runsEdgar 562 156 32 1 16 63 77 21 13 73 4.339 703.0Nomar 529 197 51 3 21 61 50 5 2 128 9.880 1600.5Jeter 593 201 31 4 15 68 99 22 4 115 7.446 1206.3Tejada 607 167 32 1 30 66 102 6 0 102 6.004 972.7C’rera 422 100 25 1 13 25 28 4 4 49 3.862 625.7Furcal 455 134 20 4 4 73 80 40 14 72 5.605 908.0 2001 ab h 2b 3b hr bb k sb cs RC Est RC/27 Player runsEdgar 493 128 19 3 10 39 73 17 4 56 3.824 619.4Nomar 83 24 3 0 4 7 9 0 1 15 6.485 1050.5Jeter 614 191 35 3 21 56 99 27 3 111 6.708 1086.8Tejada 622 166 31 3 31 43 89 11 5 102 5.713 925.5C’rera 626 173 41 6 14 43 54 19 7 92 5.138 832.4Furcal 324 89 19 0 4 24 56 22 6 41 4.341 703.2 2002 ab h 2b 3b hr bb k sb cs RC Est RC/27 Player runsEdgar 544 166 36 2 11 49 57 22 7 97 6.325 1024.6Nomar 635 197 56 5 24 41 63 5 2 116 6.678 1081.8Jeter 644 191 26 0 18 73 114 32 3 108 6.150 996.2Tejada 662 204 30 0 34 38 84 7 2 125 6.984 1131.3C’rera 563 148 43 1 7 48 53 25 7 64 3.843 622.6Furcal 636 175 31 8 8 43 114 27 15 83 4.538 735.2 2003 ab h 2b 3b hr bb k sb cs RC Est RC/27 Player runsEdgar 499 167 39 1 12 45 40 27 5 84 6.163 998.3Nomar 554 179 34 12 23 32 52 15 5 106 7.216 1169.0Jeter 396 126 22 3 9 38 74 9 4 70 6.644 1076.3Tejada 538 147 37 0 23 40 55 7 0 85 5.621 910.6C’rera 525 155 36 1 17 50 50 21 2 82 5.563 901.3Furcal 556 159 27 8 15 49 63 22 2 89 5.942 962.7 Total ab h 2b 3b hr bb k sb cs RC Est RC/27 Player runsEdgar 2098 617 126 7 49 196 247 87 29 311 5.144 833.3Nomar 1801 597 144 20 72 141 174 25 10 364 7.709 1248.8Jeter 2247 709 114 10 63 235 386 90 14 404 6.719 1088.5Tejada 2429 684 130 4 118 187 330 31 7 414 6.104 988.8C’rera 2136 576 145 9 51 166 185 69 20 287 4.622 748.8Furcal 1971 557 97 20 31 189 313 111 37 286 5.127 830.6
Nuts and Bolts
Because of Blogger space, I needed to cut some names. Nomar is Garciaparra (duh). Edgar is Edgar Renteria. C’rera is Expos shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Also, the cut off was 2000 because that was the season when all 6 guys became regulars. For the record, and the sake of fairness, Jeter very well could have been the AL MVP in 1999, and Bill James went so far as to call him the best player in baseball that year.
Now, some explaination of the metrics. RC Est is the estimate of how many runs each player contributed to his team’s offense. This is a Jamesian invention that went from simply (Times on Base*Total Bases)/Plate Apperences. The formula I use is a James formula that is much much more intense. Also, if you add up the runs created for each player over the course of a few seasons, you will find that it is equal to the amount of runs that the team has scored. It’s pretty accurate for 3 seasons and more.
RC/27 is basically Runs created, divided by the Outs the player used up (essentially AB-H+CS+GIDP+SF+SH), multiplied by 27. 27 is of course the amount of outs in a 9 inning baseball game.
Player runs is how many runs a team would score if a 9 player lineup was made of that player, and then played for 162 games. I said play alot in that last sentence. I do it for you, the reader.
Now, what does it all mean? I honestly don’t know. Stats are fun though. They tell you things like “Hey, how many times did Jeter walk in 2001?” and “Hey, who hit more home runs in 2000, Cabrera or Furcal?” Analysis comes from drawing conclusions about the accounting that Elias Sports Bureau does for us. As Baseball Prospectus mentions from time to time, stats are just accounting.
Drawing conclusions, however, are much more involved. Essentially to draw an adequet conclusion, you need to toss all the numbers in a blender, and test it for accuracy. Due to being born in 1980 (3 years after the inaugural Bill James’ Baseball Abstracts), alot of people have already done the “blender test” for me. The metrics used are pretty accurate. Take Jeff’s word for it. That’s the second time I did it for you. I’m your stat whore, David Stern.
Thoughts
Now, what are my conclusions?
*The National League guys are in a completely different caste then the AL guys. Sorry St. Louis, Montreal, and Atlanta, but your good shortstops aren’t quite so good.
*Miguel Tejada was actually deserving of the MVP award in the AL…if you only count AL shortstops not playing in Texas.
*Derek Jeter is having a pretty good year after 3 years of decline. Maybe he can wrest the Bronze Metal for AL Shortstops back.
*As good as people say Renteria has been this year, very quietly, he had a tremendous 2002.
*Orlando Cabrera goes hot and cold in the four years of this study. He’s like the Columbian 6-man version of Bret Saberhagen.
*Some people reading this forget who Sabes was, or only remember him as the oft-injured Boston starter. That is a damn shame.
*Rafael Furcal ’s shoulder problems (from sprain in April 01 to the seperation) probably cost him 2 years of good hitting. The legs were willing…
Now down to the real question…who is the best offensive shortstop?
In a word…Nomar.
Garciaparra lost a year to a split tendon in his wrist. He suffered that injury in September 1999 vs. Baltimore. So those numbers for 2000 were compiled with a serious wrist injury. Surgery in 2001, sapped some of his power, but that seems to be back in spades in 2003. Hurt Nomar is still a better hitter then all of these guys. Nomar has faults, but he’s the best hitting shortstop this side of Arlington.
The rank:
1. Nomar Garciaparra - Boston
2. Derek Jeter - New York
3. Miguel Tejada - Oakland
4. Rafael Furcal - Atlanta
5. Edgar Renteria - St. Louis
6. Orlando Cabrera - Montreal
Later comes defense…