8/31/2003

Looking at Shortstops - Offense or:How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Long Bomb

Filed under: — Jeff @ 12:46 pm


Somewhere in the journey from Mark Belanger to Alex Rodriguez, shortstops learned to hit. Here is a chart with some rudimentary statistics (accounting) and three columns of SABR worthy statistics (metrics):


2000	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	562	156	32	1	16	63	77	21	13	73	4.339	703.0Nomar	529	197	51	3	21	61	50	5	2	128	9.880	1600.5Jeter	593	201	31	4	15	68	99	22	4	115	7.446	1206.3Tejada	607	167	32	1	30	66	102	6	0	102	6.004	972.7C’rera	422	100	25	1	13	25	28	4	4	49	3.862	625.7Furcal	455	134	20	4	4	73	80	40	14	72	5.605	908.0

2001	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	493	128	19	3	10	39	73	17	4	56	3.824	619.4Nomar	83	24	3	0	4	7	9	0	1	15	6.485	1050.5Jeter	614	191	35	3	21	56	99	27	3	111	6.708	1086.8Tejada	622	166	31	3	31	43	89	11	5	102	5.713	925.5C’rera	626	173	41	6	14	43	54	19	7	92	5.138	832.4Furcal	324	89	19	0	4	24	56	22	6	41	4.341	703.2

2002	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	544	166	36	2	11	49	57	22	7	97	6.325	1024.6Nomar	635	197	56	5	24	41	63	5	2	116	6.678	1081.8Jeter	644	191	26	0	18	73	114	32	3	108	6.150	996.2Tejada	662	204	30	0	34	38	84	7	2	125	6.984	1131.3C’rera	563	148	43	1	7	48	53	25	7	64	3.843	622.6Furcal	636	175	31	8	8	43	114	27	15	83	4.538	735.2

2003	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	499	167	39	1	12	45	40	27	5	84	6.163	998.3Nomar	554	179	34	12	23	32	52	15	5	106	7.216	1169.0Jeter	396	126	22	3	9	38	74	9	4	70	6.644	1076.3Tejada	538	147	37	0	23	40	55	7	0	85	5.621	910.6C’rera	525	155	36	1	17	50	50	21	2	82	5.563	901.3Furcal	556	159	27	8	15	49	63	22	2	89	5.942	962.7

Total	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	RC Est	RC/27	Player runsEdgar	2098	617	126	7	49	196	247	87	29	311	5.144	833.3Nomar	1801	597	144	20	72	141	174	25	10	364	7.709	1248.8Jeter	2247	709	114	10	63	235	386	90	14	404	6.719	1088.5Tejada	2429	684	130	4	118	187	330	31	7	414	6.104	988.8C’rera	2136	576	145	9	51	166	185	69	20	287	4.622	748.8Furcal	1971	557	97	20	31	189	313	111	37	286	5.127	830.6

Nuts and Bolts
Because of Blogger space, I needed to cut some names. Nomar is Garciaparra (duh). Edgar is Edgar Renteria. C’rera is Expos shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Also, the cut off was 2000 because that was the season when all 6 guys became regulars. For the record, and the sake of fairness, Jeter very well could have been the AL MVP in 1999, and Bill James went so far as to call him the best player in baseball that year.

Now, some explaination of the metrics. RC Est is the estimate of how many runs each player contributed to his team’s offense. This is a Jamesian invention that went from simply (Times on Base*Total Bases)/Plate Apperences. The formula I use is a James formula that is much much more intense. Also, if you add up the runs created for each player over the course of a few seasons, you will find that it is equal to the amount of runs that the team has scored. It’s pretty accurate for 3 seasons and more.

RC/27 is basically Runs created, divided by the Outs the player used up (essentially AB-H+CS+GIDP+SF+SH), multiplied by 27. 27 is of course the amount of outs in a 9 inning baseball game.

Player runs is how many runs a team would score if a 9 player lineup was made of that player, and then played for 162 games. I said play alot in that last sentence. I do it for you, the reader.

Now, what does it all mean? I honestly don’t know. Stats are fun though. They tell you things like “Hey, how many times did Jeter walk in 2001?” and “Hey, who hit more home runs in 2000, Cabrera or Furcal?” Analysis comes from drawing conclusions about the accounting that Elias Sports Bureau does for us. As Baseball Prospectus mentions from time to time, stats are just accounting.

Drawing conclusions, however, are much more involved. Essentially to draw an adequet conclusion, you need to toss all the numbers in a blender, and test it for accuracy. Due to being born in 1980 (3 years after the inaugural Bill James’ Baseball Abstracts), alot of people have already done the “blender test” for me. The metrics used are pretty accurate. Take Jeff’s word for it. That’s the second time I did it for you. I’m your stat whore, David Stern.

Thoughts

Now, what are my conclusions?
*The National League guys are in a completely different caste then the AL guys. Sorry St. Louis, Montreal, and Atlanta, but your good shortstops aren’t quite so good.
*Miguel Tejada was actually deserving of the MVP award in the AL…if you only count AL shortstops not playing in Texas.
*Derek Jeter is having a pretty good year after 3 years of decline. Maybe he can wrest the Bronze Metal for AL Shortstops back.
*As good as people say Renteria has been this year, very quietly, he had a tremendous 2002.
*Orlando Cabrera goes hot and cold in the four years of this study. He’s like the Columbian 6-man version of Bret Saberhagen.
*Some people reading this forget who Sabes was, or only remember him as the oft-injured Boston starter. That is a damn shame.
*Rafael Furcal ’s shoulder problems (from sprain in April 01 to the seperation) probably cost him 2 years of good hitting. The legs were willing…

Now down to the real question…who is the best offensive shortstop?
In a word…Nomar.

Garciaparra lost a year to a split tendon in his wrist. He suffered that injury in September 1999 vs. Baltimore. So those numbers for 2000 were compiled with a serious wrist injury. Surgery in 2001, sapped some of his power, but that seems to be back in spades in 2003. Hurt Nomar is still a better hitter then all of these guys. Nomar has faults, but he’s the best hitting shortstop this side of Arlington.

The rank:
1. Nomar Garciaparra - Boston
2. Derek Jeter - New York
3. Miguel Tejada - Oakland
4. Rafael Furcal - Atlanta
5. Edgar Renteria - St. Louis
6. Orlando Cabrera - Montreal

Later comes defense…

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