Yes, Playoffs. Is there any better time of year? The nip of fall is in the air, and the crack of the bat can still be heard.

And we have three rounds of Seligian baseball to be played. Baseball Fever! Catch it.

The predictions are done using my patented DeweyVision prediction system. In order to test the accuracy of DeweyVision, I will be making my picks based on my own analysis. Then I will be giving you DeweyVision’s picks. Man against a system. My girlfriend is actively rooting for DeweyVision.

The normal disclaimers about all of my metrics being park and league adjusted apply. PkR and PkH are the park adjustments I used for runs and home runs. DE and OE are Defensive Effiencey (Balls in play turned into outs), and Offensive Efficency (the amount of runs scored/expected runs scored.)

San Francisco Giants vs. Florida Marlins
Team

      W  L  RS  RA  AVE  OB% SLUG PkR PkH   DE   OESFG 100 61 755 638 .263 .338 .423  952 858 .722 1.001                  FLA  91 71 751 692 .266 .333 .421  954 900 .704  .973

Lineups
San Francisco Giants
C – Benito Santiago
1b – JT Snow
2b – Ray Durham
3b – Edgardo Alfonzo
ss – Rich Aurillia
lf – Barry Bonds
cf – Marquis Grissom/Jeffrey Hammonds
rf – Jose Cruz

Florida Marlins
C – Ivan Rodriguez
1b - Derrek Lee
2b – Luis Castillo
3b – Mike Lowell/Miguel Cabrera
ss – Alex Gonzalez
lf – Miguel Cabrera/Jeff Conine
cf – Juan Pierre
rf – Juan Encarnacion

Starting Pitching

       IP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9  WHIP  ERA  RsSvdSFG  553.7  6.03  2.60  0.72  1.20  3.32 129.28 FLA  684.7  7.58  3.01  0.78  1.28  3.59 139.13

Bullpens

      IP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9   WHIP  ERA  RsSvdSFG  484.3  6.75  3.57  0.69  1.32  3.49  89.45FLA  462.0  6.64  4.03  0.80  1.45  4.34  42.24

Games

Sep 30 @ SFG Josh Beckett vs. Jason Schmidt 4:00pmOct 1  @ SFG Brad Penny   vs. Sidney Ponson 4:00pm Oct 3  @ FLA Kirk Rueter  vs. Mark Redman   4:00pmOct 4  @ FLA J. Williams  vs. D. Willis     TBA Oct 6  @ SFG TBA          vs. TBA           TBA

Thoughts
San Francisco walked through the regular season enroute to the West crown. Florida fought back through adversity and Torborg the Butcher to win the Wacky Card. On paper the matchup should be a breeze for San Francisco.

Although these games aren’t played on paper, these games should be a breeze for San Francisco. Although Jack McKeon has said that under no circumstances will Barry Bonds see a pitch to hit, it is a misconception to think that San Fran has no other fire power. Edgardo Alfonzo, Rich Aurilla and Ray Durham can still hit. The offense isn’t as prolific without Bonds, but it can still score runs.

Plus, actually going through the motions of pitching around Bonds puts a young pitching staff at a disadvantage. You figure, Josh Beckett will see Bonds three times. That is 12 pitches, minimum, to one guy, and he still gets on base. Assuming that he will run out of gas at around 100-110 pitches, that makes him more hittable. And Florida’s bullpen is the worst in the playoffs in either league.

The one area Florida does have an advantage is team speed. The stolen bases won’t be as much as a factor as Juan Pierre bunting for hits, or going from first to third on a Castillo blooper to right. Is speed enough to overcome pitching and hitting deficiencies?

No. The Giants won 100 games for a two reasons. They’re hitters can hit where hitting is scarce (119 games in SF, LA, and SD), and their pitchers play to that advantage as well. The Marlins should be able to take a game, but the end result should be a nice story, and one of the few games Dontrelle Willis has had on national television.

Jeff’s pick: SFG 3-1
DeweyVision: FLA 3-2

Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Team

      W  L  RS  RA  AVE  OB% SLUG  PkR PkH   DE   OEATL 101 61 902 738 .283 .349 .476  985  958 .717 .971                  CHC  88 74 722 680 .259 .323 .416  979 1003 .710  .977

Lineups
Atlanta Braves
C – Javier Lopez
1b – Robert Fick
2b – Marcus Giles
3b – Vinny Castilla
ss – Rafael Furcal
lf – Chipper Jones
cf – Andruw Jones
rf – Gary Sheffield

Chicago Cubs
C – Damian Miller
1b – Eric Karros/Randell Simon
2b – Mark Grudielanek
3b – Aramis Ramirez
ss – Alex Gonzalez
lf – Moises Alou
cf – Kenny Lofton
rf – Sammy Sosa

Starting Pitching

       IP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9  WHIP  ERA  RsSvdATL  798.0  5.42  3.21  0.86  1.32  3.90 134.53 CHC  838.0  9.13  3.47  0.75  1.21  3.20 206.43

Bullpens

      IP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9   WHIP  ERA  RsSvdATL  469.0  7.79  3.82  0.96  1.39  4.01  69.11CHC  421.0  8.81  4.17  1.03  1.35  4.15  54.16

Games

Sep 30 @ ATL Kerry Wood   vs. Russ Ortiz    8:00pmOct 1  @ ATL C. Zambrano  vs. Mike Hampton  8:15pm Oct 3  @ CHC Greg Maddux  vs. Mark Prior    8:00pmOct 4  @ CHC TBA          vs. TBA           TBA Oct 6  @ ATL TBA          vs. TBA           TBA

Thoughts
I think now would be a good time to let you know that the starters above are based on a hypothetical four man rotation. Some managers have said they are using three. I still based it on four.

The Cubs/Braves series kind of mimics the A’s/Red Sox series. An offensive based team against a pitching dominated team. In the Cubs case though, it isn’t that they can’t hit, its that they can’t get on base. And their staff is a no hitter waiting to happen. Very rarely do you see a team average a strike out an inning from its top four starters. My only worry is that Dusty Baker will get sentimental and start Shawn Estes. I think that’s a lot of Cubs’ fans worries too.

I don’t know that the Cubs’ pitching is strong enough, though. The Braves killed good pitching all year. David Pinto from Baseball Musings posted a chart yesterday showing that pitchers in the top 15 of ERA in either league posted a 8-14 record with a 3.79 ERA. Not only that, but some of the Braves more dangerous hitters are particularly good at drawing a walk without striking out (Chipper Jones, and Gary Sheffield for instance).

Before I give you my prediction, I will take the time right now to say that the Braves are the most boring team in the playoffs, probably because of overexposure more then anything else. Not only are all their games on TBS, but ESPN and Fox did a good job of putting them on national television as well. Add that to the last 11 years in the playoffs, and the Braves just annoy me now.

Anyway, the Braves are facing one of the more dominant staff’s in baseball, and their post season track record is less then stellar. However, the Cubs can’t hit past Sosa really, and the Braves pitching isn’t so bad that it can’t hold them down. In a long, brutal series, I think the Braves have it.

Jeff’s pick: ATL 3-2
DeweyVision: CHC 3-1

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Team

      W  L  RS  RA  AVE  OB% SLUG PkR  PkH   DE   OENYY 101 61 877 716 .271 .357 .454  976 1011 .698 1.001                  MIN  90 72 801 758 .277 .341 .431 1007  950 .710 1.005

Lineups
New York Yankees
C – Jorge Posada
1b – Jason Giambi
2b – Alfonso Soriano
3b – Aaron Boone
ss – Derek Jeter
lf – Hideki Matsui
cf – Bernie Williams
rf – Karim Garcia/Juan Rivera/Ruben Sierra
dh – Nick Johnson

Minnesota Twins
C – AJ Pierzynski
1b – Doug Mientkiewicz
2b – Luis Rivas
3b – Cory Koskie
ss – Cristian Guzman
lf – Shannon Stewart
cf – Torii Hunter
rf – Jacque Jones
dh – Matt LeCroy

Starting Pitching

       IP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9  WHIP  ERA  RsSvdNYY  834.3  7.15  1.81  0.97  1.22  3.90 157.47 MIN  714.0  5.96  1.89  1.20  1.27  4.30 117.41

Bullpens

      IP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9   WHIP  ERA  RsSvdNYY  394.7  6.80  3.26  0.84  1.40  4.08  66.73MIN  482.0  7.43  3.40  0.93  1.32  3.73 109.46

Games

Sep 30 @ NYY Johan Santana vs. Mike Mussina  1:00pmOct 2  @ NYY Brad Radke    vs. Andy Pettitte 8:15pm Oct 4  @ MIN Roger Clemens vs. Kyle Loshe    TBA   Oct 5  @ MIN TBA           vs. TBA           TBA Oct 6  @ NYY TBA           vs. TBA           TBA

Thoughts
The Twins are 0-14 in their last 14 games against the Yankees. At the end of their last tussle, Twins pitcher Rick Reed actually said, “We are so lucky we don’t need to face them anymore”

Reed might have woken up in a cold sweat just thinking about meeting in the playoffs.

The story line here is the team that has an owner that hates them against the most hands on owner in the game. Small market vs. big market. Midwest vs. East Coast. Little Twinkies vs. the Evil Empire.

Saving you from more canned sentiment, the Yankees are the prohibitive favorite for reasons such as experience, skill, and money. Of course none of that really mattered to the Angels last year, so I guess I have no point.

I honestly think the X-factor here is Johan Santana. Santana has as much ability as anyone in the league, and throws from the left side, where Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi, and Ruben Sierra have historically done less damage. Tonight, if Santana out duels Mike Mussina, the Twins might just steal the series.

The thought of Matsui, Williams and RF du jour coving the outfield in the BaggyDome puts a hop in my step.

I’m going to gamble and say that Santana isn’t enough. The Twins pitching has been improved and they have a lights out bullpen, but the thought of Kyle Loshe against the Yankees isn’t too promising. Of course, no he will no hit them and I will still be an idiot. Baseball has a funny way of doing that to you.

Jeff’s pick: NYY 3-0
DeweyVision: MIN 3-0

Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Team

      W  L  RS  RA  AVE  OB% SLUG PkR  PkH   DE   OEOAK  96 66 768 643 .254 .360 .492  967 1014 .726 .992                  BOS  95 67 962 809 .289 .326 .417 1022  956 .701 .984

Lineups
Oakland Athletics
C – Ramon Hernandez
1b – Scott Hatteberg
2b – Mark Ellis
3b – Eric Chavez
ss – Miguel Tejada
lf – Terrence Long
cf – Eric Byrnes/Chris Singleton
rf – Jose Guillen
dh – Eurbial Durazo

Boston Red Sox
C – Jason Varitek
1b – Kevin Millar
2b – Todd Walker
3b – Bill Mueller
ss – Nomar Garciaparra
lf – Manny Ramirez
cf – Johnny Damon
rf – Trot Nixon/Gabe Kapler
dh – David Ortiz

Starting Pitching

       IP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9  WHIP  ERA  RsSvdOAK  717.7  6.50  3.06  0.78  1.17  3.21 179.61 BOS  772.0  6.89  2.76  0.78  1.29  4.00 160.21

Bullpens

      IP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9   WHIP  ERA  RsSvdOAK  419.7  6.58  3.71  0.97  1.31  3.60  86.73BOS  499.0  7.67  3.41  1.01  1.45  4.87  55.26

Games

Oct 1  @ OAK Pedro Martinez vs. Tim Hudson   10:00pmOct 2  @ OAK Tim Wakefield  vs. Barry Zito    4:00pm Oct 4  @ BOS Ted Lilly      vs. Derek Lowe    TBA   Oct 5  @ BOS TBA            vs. TBA           TBA Oct 6  @ OAK TBA            vs. TBA           TBA

Thoughts
This is what baseball is all about.

For the first time since 1999, the Boston Red Sox are in the playoffs, against a team they have met 3 times before. The A’s hold a 2-1 post-season edge on Boston.

This series literally has it all. My favorite baseball team is going against my second favorite team. The best hitting in the AL is squaring off against the best pitching in the AL…blah blah.

In away though this series actually has some importance. It’ll mark the first time one of the modern sabermetricly inclined teams in baseball (Toronto being the other) makes it to the championship series for their league. From there, its just one step away until we have our first World Series that knows what DIPS is. Maybe, just maybe, we can play the World Series on paper, rather then on the field [/fallacy].

Anyway, no words here can do justice to how I am feeling towards the beginning of this series. We have Pedro Martinez against Tim Hudson to start, in a rematch of one of the best pitched games of the season. Hudson as you may remember carved up the Red Sox, mixing in strikeouts with his many groundballs. Pedro pitched that game coming off a complete game shutout of the Angels, when he reached 128 pitches and wasn’t sharp. There is no such weakened Pedro now.

The intensity of the series will surely be felt by the thousands of Red Sox fans, and the hundreds of A’s fans that actually will see these teams play live. In my humble opinion, this will be the best Division Series of the year.

However, the right result won’t be a happy one for the Boston Red Sox. As much as it pains me to see this, I just can’t get comfortable with this match up. I think the A’s are too strong on the mound, and too strong on the field. They are adequate with the bat; enough so that the Red Sox hurlers will have their problems. I see this series being emotionally over after Scott Sauerbeck retires Eric Chavez and then seeing a Miguel Tejada homerun disappear over the left field wall in the Al Davisium.

Jeff’s pick: OAK 3-2
DeweyVision: BOS 3-1

This will be a good test of the DeweyVision system, since I have disagreed with DeweyVision in all 4 series.

I think now is the time that I tell you I am the worst prognosticator on earth.

Tomorrow, I will give a recap of today’s games, as well as a more in depth analysis of the Pedro/Hudson game.