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This is the first in a four part series called the Keltner List and You. The idea of the Keltner test was introduced by Bill James in his book The Politics of Glory. The test is designed to ask 15 subjective questions to determine the Hall-worthiness of a particular candidate.

I will be looking at three players who have spent most of their careers as Boston Red Sox, and seeing how they fair against the Keltner list. On the fourth day, I will be analyzing what I find.

Today is Part 1: Jim Rice

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

For Jim Rice, the answer is yes. He was generally considered one of the best players in the American League from 1975-1986. In 1978, he was, by the Win Shares system the best player in the AL, and second in MLB by a insignificant amount (36 Win Shares to Dave Parker’s 37). I don’t think it’s a far reach to say Rice was the best player in baseball for one season.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

I have Rice being the best player on the Boston Red Sox in 1978, and being in the top five on the Sox in eight other seasons. He was a top five player on his team in half of his years in the majors.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

For one year he was. When matched up for the rest of the 70s and 80s, he usually fell in the upper tier of outfielders, but there was always someone better in the league, and usually on his team too. In the late 1970s Fred Lynn and Ken Singleton were usually better. In the early 80s, it was Dwight Evans and Rickey Henderson.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

The Red Sox were legitimately in five pennant races in Rice’s tenure on the Sox. In September 1975, Vern Ruhle broke his hand. Up until that time, Rice was hitting .310/.352/.405 in September. The batting average and the on base are right in line with his seasonal averages, but the slugging is almost 100 points lower.

In Sept 1977, Rice’s slugging was constant with his norm for the year, but his batting and on base was up. It’s safe to say that the Red Sox failure to capture the East crown wasn’t Rice’s fault.

The league MVP faded down the stretch in 1978. He did hit a home run in the playoff forcing game in the 8th inning, but it only added insurance to the eventual 5-0 final. In the playoff game, Rice went 1-5 with a sacrifice fly that brought Boston back within one run.

Rice was the second best hitter on the Red Sox in 1986. He hit seven homeruns in September, was one of the primary reasons the Red Sox were able to bury the Yankees at the end of the year.

Rice did nothing in September 1988. He hit .207/.227/.431 in 58 ab and the Red Sox were barely able to hold off the Tigers, Brewers and Blue Jays.

Although Rice never had a Yastrezmski-type “carry the team on my back” pennant drive, none of the Red Sox teams of his era were particularly hurt by having Rice in the lineup. I would say that he is neutral in the pennant race question.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

No. Jim Ed completely lost his bat speed by the time 1988 rolled around, and was a liability on the team as early as August 1987.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

I would say no, as people like Ron Santo and Darrell Evens wait outside.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the 10 most similar players to Jim Rice are Orlando Cepada, Andres Galaragga, Duke Snider, Ellis Burks, Joe Carter, Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Willie Stargell, Chili Davis, and Dale Murphy. Cepada, Williams, Stargell, and Snider are in the Hall.

Burks, Galaragga, and Davis will probably not get a second look. Carter, Murphy, and Parker would be lower-tier Hall members. They probably will not get in before they are submitted to the Veteran’s Committee, and even then, they are a long shot.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

On the Hall of Fame Standards test, Rice receives a 42.9, with the average Hall of Famer getting a 50. On the Hall of Fame Monitor test, Rice earned a 147, with a likely Hall of Famer notching a 100 or better.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

No.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

I would say the Cobra is probably as good as Rice. Ken Singleton was better in fewer years. Dale Murphy was pretty good. Dwight Evens is better than Rice in career value. I can not say with certainty that Jim Rice is the best outfielder who is eligible for the Hall.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Rice won one MVP award he was deserving of. He finished in the top 10 six times, and of those six, he was probably worthy of consideration three times, in 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1986.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Rice appeared in seven All-Star Games. He had six seasons of 20 or more Wins Shares. I haven’t been able to find concrete lists of players who have been sent to seven All-Star games, but Ralph Kiner went to eight, and his selection to the Hall was universally panned in the 70s.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Depends. Does Bucky Dent play for the chief rival?

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

I don’t know of any.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Rice is a surly dude. There was the time he tried to kill Joe Morgan in the dugout. And people generally don’t have nice things to say about him. I don’t believe he every corked his bat or anything, but the general consensus around Rice is that he’s a dick.