This column has been rated R for Rod
As enthralling as a multi-day feature on the prospects of various people going to the Hall of Fame is, that series will have to take a brief hiatus for two reasons.
1. Someone requested the working of a Keltner list on Burt Blyleven, which means I have to rewrite the, as always, well crafted and typo free analysis that Dewey’s House is famous for.
2. Something kinda big happened this weekend.
That something, of course, was Randall Simon signing with the Pirates.
Simon is a fun player to watch. He’s fat and swings at everything. Actually, that’s not fun to watch. It sucks balls. Some people, by some people I mean idiots, say Randall Simon is a good baseball player because he hits for a high average and…
Aw, shitfuck my heart isn’t in it.
Alex Rodriguez is theoretically being traded from the Texas Rangers to the New York Yankees for Alfonso Soriano.
I say theoretically because the trade has approval from the Yankees, the Rangers, and the MLBPA. All it needs is Bud Selig’s go-forward. In an effort to help ESPN farther paint Red Sox fans as pathetic whiners, here are some of the thoughts that went through the old dome in the last few days.
*The trade was made up. Damn media.
*Texas won’t do it because they need pitching, have two second baseman, and because Hicks wouldn’t alienate the hundreds of Rangers fans out there by saying that ARod would be in Texas for a while
*Remember how ARod said he wouldn’t play for the Yankees? Maybe he’ll demand a trade and opt out of the contract after 2004!
*Maybe Bud Selig, growing balls for the first time in his life, will veto the trade in a stunning Bowie Kuhn-like, best interests of baseball move.
*Well, fuckshit.
Then I realized I was a grown up and can’t think like that.
As a Red Sox fan, this trade sucks. It sucks simply because a team in our division traded for the best player in the world (I don’t count Bonds here. Barry Bonds can no longer be called a man, but a baseball deity), and in the process, pushed their payroll to almost unthinkable margins.
As much as this trade sucks however, there are a few very important points to remember. One is that the world is not over. Baseball is still to be played.
Another is that, whereas I don’t think the Red Sox are marginally better than the Yankees, the Yankees are not really anything better then being marginally better than the Red Sox. To really understand this point is to have a basic understanding of a high school economics lesson.
Look back to January. The Yankees had Aaron Boone at 3b, and Alfonso Soriano at 2b. By Tuesday, they will have ARod at 3b, and Miguel Cairo at 2b. For 2003, Boone and Soriano notched 33 Win Shares for the Yankees (50 if you include Boone’s time with the Reds). By the main principle of Win Shares, that is 16.7 Wins (using Boone’s Cincy total). For those theoretic wins, in 2004, the Yankees would have counted $11 million AAV against the luxury tax.
But wait! Win Shares aren’t predicative! Bill James told us that! Yes he did, but since I can’t see into the future, this is the best we can do.
Even if you stipulate that Soriano and Lamb were the replacements, then that number turns into 27 shares and $6.6 million. Nine wins.
Now take out Soriano and Boone (Lamb) and that gives you ARod and Miguel Cairo/Enrique Wilson. ARod earned 32 WS last year. Cairo earned 3. Wilson 2. That breaks down to 37 Shares, or 12.3 wins. For an AAV of $27 million.
What does this all mean? It’s the Law of Diminishing Returns. If you take out the scrubs in the calculus (Boone, Lamb, Wilson, Cairo) and compare the primaries of the deal, the Yankees are paying $20 million more towards the luxury tax for 2 more wins. ARod might be the best player in baseball, but as a Red Sox fan, it doesn’t mean the end of the world.
Finally, the last point might not mean much, but it still makes me chuckle. If you have been paying attention to the whole saga you know that ARod agreed to move to third base to accommodate Derek Jeter. Here you have a two-time Gold Glove winning shortstop moving out of position. Why?
The answer of course is a macho pride I can assume lives in Yankee land. They don’t want to ask Jeter to move. Despite the fact that he can’t play shortstop anymore, they are keeping him there. It makes me chuckle because the Yankees are making a huge mistake. They are letting either Jeter’s intangibles or ego standing in the way of actually winning baseball games.
It’s funny because they are keeping the inferior fielder at the harder position, and in doing so they are taking away a slice of ARod’s effectiveness. Apparently, the Yankees and Derek Jeter can’t be bothered to maximize the chance of winning a baseball game.
It makes me chuckle because it’s the Yankee Way.