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By Jeff, 6/15/2004 2:39 pm

Offense
c – Charles Johnson .260/.363/.539
1b – Todd Helton .345/.464/.601
2b – Aaron Miles .316/.331/.428
3b – Vinny Castilla .272/.340/.563
ss – Royce Clayton .285/.344/.456
lf – Matt Holliday .276/.342/.503
cf – Choo Freeman .200/.310/.320
rf – Jeromy Burnitz .284/.365/.590
Team – .270/.342/.461
Red Sox – .272/.356/.447

Offensive Efficiency:
Colorado – 98.4%
Boston – 97.3%

‘Clutch number’
Colorado – (-11.383)
Boston – (-4.991)

Stolen Bases
Colorado – (-21.7) BG (57%)
Boston – (-12.4) BG (64%)

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense. I reworked the formula to make it more accurate.

Sacrifices
Colorado – 8.25 per 550 PA
Boston – 0.89 per 550 PA

Pitching
Tuesday – Arroyo (6.252) vs. Kennedy (20.052)
Wednesday – Schilling (30.971) vs. Jennings (-3.861)
Thursday – Lowe (1.661) vs. Estes (5.683)

Rotations
Colorado – (-5.330)
Boston – 73.089

Bullpens
Colorado – 18.328
Boston – 56.676

Usage
Colorado – 3.1 RpG, 1.05 IPpAPP
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.10 IPpAPP

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By Jeff, 6/13/2004 12:51 pm

Great game yesterday, eh?

Anyway, I will be in attendence tonight to see Red Sox Ace v.2001 against Red Sox Ace v.1998-2000,2002-2003. Good times.

Tomorrow, sometime around nighttime, I will have the draft review up. Tuesday I’ll have the Rockies series preview. From then, I’ll be back on a regular posting schedule.

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By Jeff, 6/11/2004 2:18 am

Just a note: I’m working on some things that will be added to these previews. It will probably make them more useful/entertaining.

Or they might suck more. Who knows!?

Offense
c – Paul Lo Duca .356/.396/.487
1b – Shawn Green .240/.338/.418
2b – Alex Cora .291/.383/.426
3b – Adrian Beltre .306/.339/.563
ss – Caser Izturis .314/.347/.393
lf – Dave Roberts .286/.387/.429 OR Jayson Werth .200/.273/.500
cf – Milton Bradley .270/.346/.422
rf – Juan Encarnacion .252/.279/.435
Team – .275/.332/.426
Red Sox – .272/.356/.447

Offensive Efficiency:
Los Angeles – 91.1%
Boston – 97.4%

‘Clutch number’
Los Angeles – (-5.463)
Boston – (-7.527)

Stolen Bases
Los Angeles – (-8.4) BG (69%)
Boston – (-12.7) BG (63%)

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense. I reworked the formula to make it more accurate.

Sacrifices
Los Angeles – 5.56 per 550 PA
Boston – 0.92 per 550 PA

Pitching
Friday – Perez (15.220) vs. Lowe (-2.748)
Saturday – Weaver (5.983) vs. Wakefield (16.721)
Sunday – Nomo (-12.361) vs. Martinez (19.812)

Bullpens
Los Angeles – 37.329
Boston – 57.756

Usage
Los Angeles – 2.8 RpG, 1.12 IPpAPP
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.10 IPpAPP

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By Sully, 6/8/2004 5:24 pm

As the Red Sox get set to commence the annual peculiarity we all know as “interleague play” let us take a step back and analyze where we are now and where we are going. The Red Sox are currently 33-23, 2.5 games behind the New York Yankees. Despite drastic underperformance from 3 of their 5 starting pitchers, the Red Sox have been the fourth stingiest team in the American League with respect to yielding runs. Furthermore, the Red Sox now lead Major League Baseball in runs scored, with 304. They have achieved this of course despite the absence of Trot Nixon, Nomar Garciaparra, Bill Mueller and Ellis Burks. What’s even more encouraging is that the simple runs scored and runs allowed figures fail to tell the entire story. According to Clay Davenport’s Adjusted Standings over at Baseball Prospectus, due to their adjusted equivalent runs figures(317 AEQR and 251 AEQRA), the Red Sox – as they stand now – could be expected to win another 65 games. In other words, the Red Sox appear to be a 98 win team – Crespo, Millar and Kapler suckitude and all.

But what about trying to project the almost certain improvement that will result from Garciaparra’s and Nixon’s respective returns from injury?

Let me take a crack.

Here are some introductory numbers, in BA/OBA/SLG format, to plainly illustrate the discrepancies between the production the Red Sox have received thus far from SS and RF and what they did in 2003:

SS
2003: .300/.344/.518
2004: .240/.272/.332

RF
2003: .310/.386/.557
2004: .292/.343/.431

There is not much need for further explanation here. However, in order to analyze this information in terms of runs and subsequently wins and losses, it would be appropriate to take a look at Runs Created, a more easily accesable cousin of Davenport’s Equivalent Run.

At their current pace, Sox right-fielders would create 82.7 runs, or an additional 51 on top of what they have already created. Last year, Trot Nixon and his platoon pals Gabe Kapler and Kevin Millar created 122.8 runs. So discounted for the additional 100 games or so the Sox will have remaining when Nixon returns, they could reasonably hope for an additional 76 runs – 25 better than their current pace.

The Sox shortstops are on pace to create a pathetic 52.6 runs for the season, or an additional 34 or so. Based on Nomar’s 119 runs created last year, the Sox can expect 78 runs created from shortstop the rest of the way, a 44 run upgrade.

Based upon these figures and implementing Bill James’ Pythagorean formula, the Red Sox still appear to be a 102-103 win team. Some may question the reliability of these figures given that they assume Trot and Nomar will bounce back to their 2003 levels of performance. To that I would respond that whatever excessive optomism lies in my offensive projections is offset by the fact that my win-loss estimates assume that the team will continue its current runs allowed pace – an unlikely prospect.

Despite what a predominantly negative local media might have to say, the Sox still have great hope for the rest of the way.

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By Jeff,

Offense
c – Ramon Hernandez .252/.335/.408
1b – Phil Nevin .289/.367/.450
2b – Mark Loretta .306/.361/.437
3b – Sean Burroughs .329/.367/.394
ss – Khalil Greene .265/.351/.378
lf – Terrence Long .293/.343/.394
cf – Jay Payton .301/.384/.422
rf – Brian Giles .282/.385/.488
Team – .269/.340/.387
Red Sox – .272/.357/.448

Offensive Efficiency:
San Diego – 100.3%
Boston – 97.9%

‘Clutch number’
San Diego – (-1.066)
Boston – (-5.374)

Stolen Bases
San Diego – (-7.4) BG (67%)
Boston – (-13.7) BG (62%)

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense. I reworked the formula to make it more accurate.

Sacrifices
San Diego – 5.38 per 550 PA (2.18 w/o pitchers)
Boston – 0.97 per 550 PA

Pitching
Tuesday – Wells (7.473) vs. Martinez (14.380)
Wednesday – Lawrence (8.103) vs. Arroyo (4.141)
Thursday – Tankersley (5.023) vs. Schilling (28.717)

Bullpens
San Diego – 35.151
Boston – 57.003

Usage
San Diego – 2.8 RpG, 1.07 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.12 IPpApp

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By Jeff, 6/6/2004 11:57 pm

I’m working on a project this week, so updates from me will be sporatic. There will be the Padres, Dodgers previews, and a MLB draft review, which I will probably write next weekend.

ESPN has made the pitching stats kind of hard to sort, so I don’t have an update on the gb/fb thing.

Two good wins against a terrible team. Yay.

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By Jeff, 6/4/2004 9:53 am

Offense
c – Benito Santiago .259/.283/.388
1b – Mike Sweeney .270/.335/.454
2b – Desi Relaford .209/.298/.253 OR Tony Graffanino .317/.355/.396
3b – Joe Randa .250/.320/.352
ss – Angel Berroa .223/.250/.325
lf – Bryon Gettis .250/.368/.250
cf – Carlos Beltran .281/.368/.548
rf – Matt Stairs .269/.338/.446
dh – Ken Harvey .379/.418/.552
Team – .266/.327/.414
Red Sox – .273/.359/.446

Offensive Efficiency:
Kansas City – 98.0%
Boston – 98.0%

‘Clutch number’
Kansas City – 0.117
Boston – (-6.313)

Stolen Bases
Kansas City – (-9.5) BG (61%)
Boston – (-6.0) BG (64%)

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense.

Sacrifices
Kansas City – 3.69 per 550pa
Boston – 1.02 per 550pa

Pitching
Friday – Wakefield (16.488) vs. Gobble (4.288)
Saturday – Schilling (27.341) vs. May (3.217)
Sunday – Lowe (-3.895) vs. George (1.623)

Bullpens
Kansas City – 40.331
Boston – 53.771

Usage
Kansas City – 2.8 RpG, 1.14 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.10 IPpApp

Just a note, Kansas City has had the best bullpen in the majors in the last 3 weeks, Boston is among the worst.

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By Sully, 6/3/2004 2:38 pm

David Pinto had this to write over at his fantastic blog this morning.

“As I look at the standings this morning, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. Now given the team Cashman and Co. have assembled, this shouldn’t be a surprise. But consider this:

-Derek Jeter hasn’t hit this season.

-Bernie Williams hasn’t hit this season.

-Sheffield hasn’t hit for power this season.

-Mike Mussina has been awful.

-Contreras has been awful.

-Giambi’s been on the DL.

-They have gotten nothing from second base.

Despite all that, they are tied with the Red Sox for the league lead in runs scored with 289. I find that a bit scary. Three of their best hitters in slumps, and they are at the top of the league in runs scored. And it looks like Jeter and Sheffield are starting to hit again. Giambi comes off the DL on Sunday. Matsui is playing more like he used to in Japan. A-Rod is A-Rod. Posada just keeps getting on base. If they can score like this with their offense not hitting on all cyliners, what are they going to be like when everything is in place? What if Mussina regains his form? It’s doubtful that even the return of Nomar and Nixon will be enough to overcome this juggernaught.”

To which I responded in his comments section…

“As I look at the standings this morning, the Red Sox are just 2 games behnd the Yankees. Now given the team Theo and Co. have assembled, this shouldn’t be a surprise. But consider this:

- Nomar hasn’t played an inning this season
- Kevin Millar hasn’t hit this season
- David Ortiz hasn’t gotten on base this season
- Derek Lowe has been beyond awful
- Kim and Arroyo have been awful
- Nixon’s on the DL
- They have gotten nothing from RF

Despite all that, they are tied with the Yankees for the league lead in runs scored with 289. I find that a bit scary. Two of their four best hitters having not played even a single inning and they are at the top of the league in runs scored. And it looks like Nomar and Nixon are getting healthier. Nomar comes off the DL and will play Tuesday. Damon is playing more like he used to in Kansas City. Manny is Manny. Varitek just keeps getting on base. If they can score like this with their offense not hitting on all cyliners, what are they going to be like when everything is in place? What if Lowe regains his form? It’s doubtful that even the return of Giambi will be enough to overcome this juggernaught.”

My contention was not that the Red Sox are clearly better, but rather that trying to conclusively decide which team is better at this point is crazy. Both teams have persevered and performed quite nicely in the face of some adversity. Last night, the Yankees beat the Orioles 6-5, scoring their 6 runs on just 3 hits. Meanwhile, Pedro was hit hard as Vlad had a career night,leading the Halos to a 10-7 win over the Sox.

I thought that pointing out the Yankees are “the best of the best” this particular morning was a case of shortsightedness on Pinto’s part. The Yankees have proven themselves to be the best at this point every bit as much as the Red Sox had proven themselves to be the best on April 25th.

In other words, they’ve proven squat.

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By Jeff,

First post in June. After three losses. It kinda sucks.

Derek Lowe is pitching like crap, which is what happens when pitchers don’t strike guys out, and allow a lot of hits. And runs. He allows a lot of runs too.

And then Bronson Arroyo, and Pedro Martinez were introduced to Vlad and the Popguns offense, which opened for Bullpen of Death by Movement. Yes, I know those were shitty analogies. They were shitty games.

So I’ve found a few deficences in the Red Sox right now.
*Starting pitching is ineffective, past Schilling and Wakefield. Ever since beating the Yankees, Pedro’s era is over 5. Bronson Arroyo is showing why he was placed on waivers, and Derek Lowe, the less said the better.

*Weak bench. Talk to Nomar, Trot, Mueller, and Burks. Williamson too. Injuries suck.

*Terry Francona and his slow hook. Sure, the starters haven’t been going deep into ballgames, but Arroyo was up over 100 pitches when Vlad Guerrero killed him. Pedro came out for the sixth inning, despite ineffectiveness and set up the 3-run homer that Timlin gave up to Vlad by giving up a hit to Eckstein and walking Figgins.

This is creating a disturbing pattern, because of the last guy we had out there.

I’m just frustrated. Tomorrow I’ll have something good. Friday, Kansas City will try to get us back on track.