Offense
c - Henry Blanco 215/272/360 (2.9 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 273/372/431 (5.1 RC/27)

1b - Justin Morneau 272/314/506 (5.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 296/372/460 (5.1 RC/27)

2b - Luis Rivas 260/286/409 (3.7 RC/27)
Mark Bellorn 258/373/430 (5.9 RC/27)

3b - Cory Koskie 239/341/450 (4.9 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 260/332/429 (4.9 RC/27)

ss - Cristian Guzman 288/318/396 (4.0 RC/27)
Ricky Guiterrez 167/167/333 (-1.1 RC/27)

lf - Lew Ford 307/382/489 (7.0 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 327/421/637 (8.3 RC/27)

cf - Torii Hunter 269/322/459 (4.4 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 306/386/480 (6.4 RC/27)

rf - Jacques Jones 251/309/435 (4.3 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 271/309/407 (3.2 RC/27)

dh - Shannon Stewart 308/399/423 (7.1 RC/27)
David Ortiz 308/376/620 (8.1 RC/27)

Bench
Minnesota
Jason Bartlett 000/000/000 (0.0 RC/27)
Michael Cuddyer 249/312/423 (4.3 RC/27)
Matt LeCroy 270/328/420 (4.6 RC/27)
Doug Meintkeiwicz 238/334/356 (3.7 RC/27)
Jose Offerman 228/354/382 (4.4 RC/27)

Boston
Andy Dominique 182/182/182 (1.1 RC/27)
Nomar Garciaparra 321/367/500 (6.0 RC/27)*
David McCarty 244/321/378 (3.3 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 278/343/589 (6.0 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 292/396/454 (7.1 RC/27)
*Expected to miss the weekend with a achillies strain.

Team
Minnesota - 263/329/421 (4.7)
Boston - 279/357/468 (5.4)

Offensive Efficiency:
Minnesota - 98.5%
Boston - 97.1%

Clutch Number:
Minnesota - 1.521
Boston - (-11.040)

Stolen Bases:
Minnesota - (-5.1 BG) 71%
Boston - (-5.4 BG) 70%

Sacrifices:
Minnesota - 3.66 per 550 PA
Boston - 1.09 per 550 PA

Pitching
Friday:
Bronson Arroyo 3-7 4.20 (20.136)
Kyle Loshe 4-7 4.87 (14.460)

Saturday:
Derek Lowe 9-9 5.56 (5.613)
Brad Radke 7-6 3.69 (35.211)

Sunday:
Pedro Martinez 11-4 4.15 (28.458)
Johan Santana 9-6 3.36 (41.409)

Rotations:
Minnesota - 120.917
Boston - 115.908

Bullpens:
Minnesota - 70.469
Grant Balfor - 7.807
Aaron Fultz - 7.721
Joe Nathan - 25.777
Juan Rincon - 19.514
Joe Roa - 7.018
JC Romero - 9.579

Boston - 69.932
Terry Adams - 0.669
Alan Embree - 6.538
Keith Foulke - 24.914
Mark Malaska - 3.384
Ramiro Mendoza - 3.800
Mike Timlin - 13.691

Usage:
Minnesota - 2.7 RpG, 1.13 IPpApp
Boston - 2.6 RpG, 1.06 IPpApp

As hard as I try to find a story in tonight’s game, there really isn’t one.  The Sox didn’t hit, Javy Lopez did and the Sox lost.

Thankfully, my perfect game jinx worked.

Remarkably, Baltimore pitcher David Borkowski is tossing a PERFECT GAME.  A PERFECT GAME!!!!

If one accepts Baseball Prospectus’ VORP reports as a valid indicator for what players have been best this season, there are some eye opening items included.

For instance, did you know that Mark Kotsay, largely due to Eric Chavez’s injury, has been the best Oakland position player?  This is even more remarkable considering how Kotsay started out the 2004 campaign.  Here are his month by month OPS splits:

April: .606
May: .725
June: .935
July: 1.072

Kotsay has the American League’s 8th best total in July.

Another guy flying well below the radar is Cleveland Indian Travis Hafner.  Hafner is helping the Tribe faithful forget about potential future hall-of-famer Jim Thome by posting a better season thus far than the Phillies phenom.  Hafner has the Majors’ second best OPS thus far in July.

Although he is fastly becoming more and more recognized, Detroit Tigers’ shortstop Carlos Guillen still does not have the reputation befitting the American League’s best player.  That’s right, the AL’s best player.  Better than Vlad, better than Manny.  Unbelievably, Seattle Mariners General Manager Bill Bavasi was so eager to unload Guillen to make room for Rich Aurilia, that even after a trade for Omar Vizquel fell through, Bavasi settled for the brutal Ramon Santiago.  VORP totals for the principals…

Guillen: 56.5
Aurilia: 3.6
Santiago: -1.8
Vizquel: 25.7

These are just some interesting examples.  Check out the reports for yourself and I think you will find it as informative and enjoyable as I do.  I will do a similar piece on the pitchers soon.

Enjoy Schill tonight! 

…but I hate New Jersey as well.

I was all pumped about going to see Citizen’s Bank park, but the entire state of New Jeresy was flooded out. A four hour trip to my girlfriend’s parent’s house in Jersey too us nine. We arrived at 7 p.m. No game in Philadelphia.

By the way, morning shift should be called morning shit. I’m still bitter about it a week later.

Since you are all dying to know know, here is my take on the fight.

Arroyo hits a lot of guys. ARod is a guy (presumably). He got hit. Rather than either charge the mound, or jog down to first, ARod yelled at Arroyo. Varitek did what catchers do and got between ARod and Arroyo. Homeplate umpire Bruce Froemming arrived on the scene. After that, the TV camera was focused on ARod and he said:

Fuck you, fuck you motherfucker! Come on!

I’m sure Varitek wasn’t saying “Golly gee, you sure look upset Mr. Rodriguez,” but I have no idea what he was saying. Eitherway, this illicted Tek to take the Yankee 3rd baseman up on his offer. There was shoving, then a head lock (Varitek jammed his wrist) and everyone gathered for some tea and crumpets.

This is when a leisurely day at the park turned ugly. Yankee pitcher Tanyon Sturtze got to the scrum, headlocked Gabe Kapler (probably the Budwiser Stupidest Decision of the Game) and dragged him out of the pile. Right into David Ortiz and Trot Nixon. Sturtze wrestled with Kapler while he got taken down by him, Ortiz, and Nixon. Sturtze got cut behind the ear, and jammed his pinky, went out to pitch the bottom of the 3rd, and got shelled.

My opinion is that Sturtze was probably most in the wrong in pulling a Mickey Rivers move on Kapler. Everyone else did things that were SOP in baseball (although I did lose some respect for ARod for him waiting until there was someone to separate him from Varitek to challenge the catcher.)

Finally, I don’t have a link because I got this second hand, but I was told that ARod said that “things like this happen when you hate a team”, referring to the Red Sox. This was of course a change in tune from when he almost gave up $50 million to come to Boston.

My reaction to that is that what he says doesn’t matter. To be honest, I don’t blame ARod from making comments like that. He’s on a new team who has a volatile rivalry, and he would have to be a pretty cold hearted bastard not to buy into that (see: Curt Schilling’s comments about the Yankees). Also, he probably feels disrespected by Larry Lucchino (reportedly, ARod was so disenfranchised with Lucky that Tom Warner had to pick up negotiations with the Rangers), and felt like the Red Sox didn’t try hard enough to get him out of Texas after Orza ruled. I don’t care that he hates the Red Sox, but I also don’t blame him.

Now that my head is clear, I have to hunt down Jay Jaffe and tell him Dewey’s House is my site with a brick (kidding, Sully does yeoman’s work here), and get excited to see Curt “Burt” Schilling vs. David “Son of Sam” Borkowski on the ole NESN.

So the Sox have won three straight and signs of the murderous lineup the 2003 edition of the BoSox featured are rearing their head.  The Sox have 39 runs in their last four games and after two inspiring victories (three including the brawl) versus the Yankees and a solid win vs. the Orioles, things seem, seem I stress, to be turning.  unquestionably, the story of the turnaround has been the revival of local 2004 whipping boy Kevin Millar.  Dewey’s house has been tough on Mr. KFC but we strive to be fair here.  So don’t look now but Millar now has a very respectable .833 OPS and was just awarded with the co-player of the week award for the American League.  His .284 EQA makes him just about league average for both the first base and right field positions.  Particularly with the injury to Trot Nixon, continued success from Millar will be essential to the Red Sox chances to make noise in either the AL East or the AL Wild card races.

For some discussion relevant to my previous post here, check out Jay Jaffe’s article at Futility Infielder today.  The piece was inspired by the comments section from this article from my pal Alex Belth’s blog, Bronx Banter.

I refuse to get upset about this game.  You see, I don’t think winning is a skill.  There is no innate ability to simply win.  On the other hand, hitting for power and getting on base and preventing the other team from doing so, in my opinion, requires some skill.   There is no other way to strategize to defeat your opponent than to try and do these things better than your opponent. 

So the Yanks won won last night.  I don’t want to sound like sour grapes but they once again failed to outplay the Red Sox, who managed to slug .692 in a game they lost.  Here is why the Yanks won… 

Because Kenny Lofton placed a routine ground ball in the right place and Alex Rodriguez hit a 320 foot double that plated Gary Sheffield with the game-winning run.

Sure all of the losing can become frustrating, but until someone can tell me a better way to consistently win baseball games than try to get on base more often and hit for more power that your opponents, I refuse to quit on this team because they do those things as well as anybody.

Bronson Arroyo faces Tanyon Sturtze today.

Check out Bronx Banter or The Replacement Level Yankee Weblog for some interesting and balanced Yankee coverage. 

The Red Sox avoided what would have been an embarassing sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles tonight with a solid all-around effort.  The  Sox finally decided to cluster some hits, got some solid pitching from Tim Wakefield and David McCarty made the defensive play of the year that we all just may look back upon as something of a turning point.

After Brian Roberts and impressive rookie David Newhan led the contest off with successive singles, the O’s had men on first and third with Game 1 hero Melvin Mora at the dish.  Mora hit a lazy fly ball to left field, McCarty camped under it and proceeded to hose Roberts out at the plate with a perfect throw.  The Fenway faithful roared approvingly and at the risk of overstating the importance of the play, there was a feeling that things may have finally turned back in the Sox favor. 

Such feelings were vindicated in the bottom half of the opening frame as the Sox put three runs on the board, capped off by a two-run single by McCarty himself.  Kevin Youkilis would add a solo home run and the Sox would not look back.  Wakefield, Mike Timlin and Alan Embree posted a 10-hit shutout.

The Yanks come to town this weekend.  Whatever hopes the Sox have of winning the American League East ride on the three game set.

You see, unlike Sully, I do have stuff to say.

You see, I am not a morning person. I generally go to bed between 1-3 am, and wake up between 9-11. By wake up, my body is physically awake, but my mind doesn’t kick into gear for 30 minutes or so after I am up.

Today, because of a small vacation I am taking this weekend (No Jeff until Tuesday probably. I’m leaving tonight, so no Yankee preview either), I was forced to take the 7 am shift at work. Not only do I have a headache, but I’ve slammed two Cokes (I don’t drink coffee), and I’m still dozing off. I just can’t wake up.

I think that is a good analogy for the Red Sox this season. The just won’t wake up.

I don’t know if it is a function of expectation, but the Sox have played some pretty uninspired baseball the last few months. It hasn’t been bad baseball (despite some ugly losses), but it hasn’t been good either. It’s been mediocre baseball since the double header sweep against the Devil Rays in May.

Actually, I’m convinced it was a function of fan expectation. And it pisses me off they aren’t playing better. Expectation begets frustration in this case.

Anyway, last night, Pedro pitched great, and then like hell. Johnny Damon played a bad centerfield, and I think to the disappoint ment of Costiglione and Trupiano, the infield defense of Millar/Mueller/Youkilis/Bellhorn didn’t kill Boston.

The Sox didn’t really hit, save Kapler, and the end result was a 10-5 loss. To the Orioles.

Despite all this, I’m still optomistic that the Sox can make it to the playoffs. They swept the A’s, and took 2/3 from the Rangers at home, and then split on the West coast. Except for Seattle, these are good teams they beat up on. The Red Sox were especially brutal to the vaunted pitching of the Oakland Athletics. Facts over looked by the “They’re ruinin’ my summmmaahhhhh!” crew.

Frustration begets blindness.

Doesn’t seem to me that a win in a Pedro vs. Bedard matchup is a whole lot to ask.

Let’s hope for a sweep today in the double-dip.

The Sox followed up their most crushing defeat of 2004 with a gutty victory, 9-7 today as they staved off a late Seattle charge to hang on.  Derek Lowe started and was his usual, um, crappy self going just five innings on a day he knew he needed to provide the bullpen with some rest.   He didn’t.  He gave up four earned runs and nine hits but because he was staked to an 8-1 lead, he was credited with a win.  David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez homered for the Sox.

Most impressively, just one day after surrendering two home runs in an appearance in four years, Keith Foulke struck out the side after allowing the winning run to reach home plate in the ninth with nobody out.  It seemed as though he just kinda said “eff it” and came with his best stuff, mixing pinpoint fastballs and a baffling change-up to set down the heart of Seattle’s order en route to recording the save.

The Red Sox now come home with six games against division rivals Baltimore and New York.

Offense
Catcher
Javy Lopez - 317/371/480 (5.1)
Jason Varitek - 278/379/444 (5.3)

First Base
Rafael Palmeiro - 252/359/414 (5.1)
Kevin Millar - 269/348/384 (3.9)

Second Base
Brian Roberts - 258/329/355 (5.0) (Roberts left the game on 7/20 with a hand injury)
Mark Bellhorn - 266/385/437 (6.1)

Third Base
Melvin Mora - 343/430/557 (8.1)
Bill Mueller - 267/346/414 (5.0)

Shortstop
Miguel Tejada - 308/358/512 (6.3)
Nomar Garciaparra - 318/364/523 (6.3)

Left Field
Larry Bigbie - 263/327/401 (3.8)
Manny Ramirez - 342/438/677 (9.0)

Center Field
Luis Matos - 226/275/335 (2.9)
Johnny Damon - 310/392/485 (6.5)

Right Field
Jerry Hairston - 301/365/393 (5.6)(Hairston left the game on 7/20 with a bruised side)
Trot Nixon - 253/326/422 (3.5)

Designated Hitter
David Newhan - 413/462/624 (14.6)
David Ortiz - 305/362/615 (7.7)

Bench
Baltimore
Karim Garcia - 400/400/1600 (25.3)*
Ken Huckaby - 286/286/429 (4.9)*
Luis Lopez - 241/283/352 (2.7)
Robert Machado - 195/233/341 (2.1)
Tim Raines - 294/333/353 (4.8)

*Numbers as an Oriole only

Boston
Gabe Kapler - 266/308/392 (2.7)
David McCarty - 226/308/365 (2.6)
Doug Mirabelli - 300/364/638 (7.0)
Pokey Reese - 231/275/317 (2.6) (Reese left the game on 7/19 with a strained rib cage)

Team
Baltimore - 278/343/423 (5.0)
Boston - 278/358/465 (5.4)

Offensive Efficiency:
Baltimore - 105.2%
Boston - 96.5%

Clutch Number:
Baltimore - (-34.630)
Boston - (-11.784)

Stolen Bases:
Baltimore - (-3.8 BG) 72%
Boston - (-7.4 BG) 69%

Sacrifices:
Baltimore - 3.18 per 550 PA
Boston - 1.18 per 550 PA

Pitching
Wednesday:
Erik Bedard (17.710)
3-4 3.90
4.11 DIPS

Pedro Martinez (32.758)
10-3 3.64
3.76 DIPS

Thursday (day):
Rodrigo Lopez (6.885) [only as starter]
7-6 3.76
4.18 DIPS

Tim Wakefield (17.382) [only as starter]
5-6 4.43
4.39 DIPS

Thursday (night):
TBA vs. TBA

Rotations:
Baltimore - 24.415
Boston - 119.671

Bullpens:
Baltimore - 51.878
BJ Ryan - 22.355
Eddy Rodriguez - 8.119
Jorge Julio - 4.806
Buddy Groom - 2.688
Dave Brokowski - 1.941
Jason Grimsley - (-3.823)

Boston - 65.655
Keith Foulke - 24.130
Mike Timlin - 13.014
Alan Embree - 5.199
Ramiro Mendoza - 2.231
Jimmy Anderson - 1.346
Curtis Leskanic - 0.477
Joe Nelson - (-3.215)

Usage:
Baltimore - 2.7 RpG, 1.30 IPpApp
Boston - 2.6 RpG, 1.07 IPpApp

Blogger has changed their posting interface some, so insted of re-writing the entire preview of this series, I’ll link the orginal post on my little message board The Blair Wasdin Project

A quick little look…Seattle’s offense is terrible, and their whole organization is a mess. That said, the Red Sox seem to have an inability to play consistantly well on the road. My prediction is that the Sox take tonight, and lose in the Lowe start.

With Lowe losing again, I wager he falls into a deep depression, like Ron Burgandy in “Anchorman”. I half expect Pedro, Schilling, Arroyo, and Wakefield to walk past a bearded Lowe on the LaGrange St, while he’s guzzling milk.

          He was a Fenway favorite and a personal one as well.  Equipped with a rocket right arm and a rock-solid hitting approach, Dwight Evans was one of the most complete and consistent ballplayers to ever wear the carmine hose.  Curiously however, Dewey’s greatness - maybe greatness isn’t the right word - but his memory seems to have been lost not only on the national baseball scene but the local one as well.  It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why that might be.  He was consistent if not consistently spectacular and what made him exceptional (reliable defense, high on-base percentage) could easily have been lost on the casual fan.  He played with the sort of prosaic competence that, when reliably penciled in daily as Evans was, benefits a ball club more than that player’s skill set alone might indicate.  It’s the only explanation for why Evans’ legacy is not what it ought to be.  Well it’s long past due for a thorough review of Evans’ career both from a statistical and anecdotal perspective and this piece will seek to demonstrate why Dewey was one of the more memorable players of his generation and more to the point of this site’s subject matter, the consummate Red Sox.
          Evans broke into the big leagues at the end of the 1972 season but didn’t make any real noise until 1975.  In ‘75, not coincidentally one of the best years in Sox history, Evans posted an adjusted OPS+ of 120 and played a solid right field.  Still, Sox manager Darrell Johnston would not entrust an everyday job to Evans until the end of the season and then, the postseason.  He was terrible in a three game Boston sweep of Oakland in the ALCS but spectacular against Cincinnati in the World Series.  This trend would uphold throughout Evans’ career.  He hit .190/.282/.302 in his ALCS career while hitting .320/.397/.580 in his two World Series appearances in 1975 and 1986.  His two most memorable moments in the series were his ninth inning home run off of Reds reliever Rawly Eastwick in Game 3 to tie that game (only to lose controversially) and his eleventh inning robbery in Game 6 of a sure Joe Morgan home run that resulted in a double play when he threw back into first base to get Ken Griffey who, like everyone else at Fenway, was sure Morgan’s blast would clear the wall.  Without this play, there is no Carlton Fisk game-winning home run.
          Evans won gold gloves in ‘76, ‘78 and ‘79 (and 5 more in the ’80’s) but was just good offensively.  He wouldn’t establish himself as a premium hitter until the 1981 season in which he posted a .292/.402/.534 line.  That year, according to Baseball Prospectus’ VORP, he was the Majors’ 4th best offensive player.  In 1982, he was the 3rd best and 9th in ‘84.  These were largely mediocre Red Sox teams however and the fact that his best performances came in otherwise forgettable Sox campaigns may be another contributing factor to his lacking legacy.  In 1986 that would change as he got the year off to a roaring start, smacking the first pitch of the season over the center field wall, famously 440 feet away at Detroit’s Tiger Stadium.  It would prove to be a foreshadowing of another one of the best seasons in Boston’s storied baseball past.  Evans was a vital contributor for a potent Sox team that would win one of the most exciting League Championship Series ever only to lose in historically painful fashion to the New York Mets in the World Series.
          The decline faze of Evans’ career was slow as he would post solid seasons all the way through his retirement in 1991 which he sadly finished with the Baltimore Orioles.
          Bill James, in his New Historical Baseball Abstract notes that Dave Winfield, Dave Parker and Evans were all born in 1951 and that of their 24-year combined career span, Winfield had the best season of the three eleven times, Evans eight times and Parker five.  The caveat in this analysis is that Winfield “wins” four of his seasons after Evans retired.  Winfield represents an interesting comparison.  His career OPS+ of 129 is slightly better than Evans but, despite Winfield’s numerous gold gloves of his own, he was not the fielder Evans was.  Here are their career lines:
 
Evans: .272/.370/.470
Winfield: .283/.353/.475
 
Given Winfield’s first-ballot induction to Cooperstown, it’s hard to argue that Evans does not, at the very least, have a compelling case.
           The deeper connection I have to Evans stems from the fact that his brightest moments mirror what the Red Sox have done for the last 86 years.  The Red Sox have so often been good - damn good in fact.  They have so often provided memorable moments.  And yet for all of their triumphs, they always end in despair.  Consider what are probably the three biggest moments of Evans’ career.  There was the aforementioned two plays in the 1975 World Series.  His home run that tied Game 3 in the ninth inning went for naught after the home plate umpire failed to properly call Ed Armbrister in the tenth for interference after he bunted and subsequently disrupted Fisk’s throw to second base that ended up in centerfield and led to a Reds’ win.  There was also the breathtaking catch and double play that afforded Carlton Fisk some extra fame and the Sox a Game 6 win but, of course, a series loss.  And finally, there was Game 7 of the 1986 World Series.  After losing in unthinkably heartbreaking fashion in Game 6 (no need to re-hash the details), the Red Sox and Bruce Hurst faced Ron Darling of the Mets the very next night.  Evans came up in the second inning and blasted a solo home run that staked the Sox to a 1-0 lead just 20 hours after the most somber loss in the franchise’s history.  It was a cathartic moment, one in which Sox fans were reminded that there was still hope - that you could dust yourself off even after the most crushing of defeats and come back strong.  The Sox would eventually lose 8-5 and the Series 4-3.   Each of these moments in their own way tell a separate story of what it is to be associated with the Red Sox.  The home run off of Eastwick was a tribute to perseverance.  The Sox never give up.  From the ‘67 Impossible Dream Team to the cardiac kids of ‘03, steadfastness has never been in short supply for the Sox.   The double play in ‘75 reminds of all of the spectacular plays and players we have been treated to over the years.  And the Game 7 home run, while subtle and largely forgotten, is the ultimate metaphor for the Boston Red Sox because there is always, always hope - no matter how hurt you may have been in the past.  And yet ultimately, the common deminator among the three plays is that they all, seemingly inevitably, did little more than delay the heartbreak.   What’s more Red Sox than that?
          Still, as long as I am watching baseball and loving the Red Sox, Dwight Evans will always assume his rightful place in baseball lore. 
          At least in one fan’s heart.
    

I didn’t get to see a minute of baseball this weekend but I can’t say I am terribly disappointed with a 4 game split in Anaheim.
 
Still, some consistency from Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield, or in some form or another at the back end of the rotation is going to be imperative if this Sox team plans to be a threat.
 
One non-baseball related note.  I was at the United States Naval Academy chapel for a wedding on Saturday in Annapolis and it was one of the most moving experiences of my life.  Anyone else that has been to Annapolis knows what I am talking about.  The place epitomizes prestige.

Kevin Youkilis was sent down to day, per the Boston Globe.

There are three ramifications to this move:
1. The Red Sox no longer lead the majors in Jews. This is sure to annoy my family.

2. Bellhorn is the backup 3rd baseman now, which means that we are one Mueller injury away from seeing either Youkilis come back up, or a Millar/Reese/Bellhorn/Garciaparra infield.

3. The man called up…bringing the roster split to 13 players/12 pitchers…

Offense
c - Benji Molina 294/316/435 (4.5 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 275/379/439 (5.0 RC/27)

1b - Darren Erstad 296/341/389 (5.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 280/361/401 (4.3 RC/27)

2b - Adam Kennedy 264/327/389 (4.2 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 268/388/443 (6.4 RC/27)

3b - Chone Figgens 307/364/459 (6.0 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 285/359/442 (5.5 RC/27)

ss - David Eckstein 293/349/346 (3.7 RC/27)
Nomar Garciaparra 327/365/523 (6.8 RC/27)

lf - Jose Guillen 301/368/509 (7.4 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 344/437/682 (9.3 RC/27)

cf - Garret Anderson 316/365/475 (7.0 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 321/401/488 (7.0 RC/27)

rf - Vlad Guerrero 345/392/591 (8.3 RC/27)
Trot Nixon 231/307/431 (2.8 RC/27)

dh - Tim Salmon 228/289/325 (3.8 RC/27)/Jeff DaVannon 298/393/429 (6.9 RC/27)
David Ortiz 304/354/600 (7.2 RC/27)

Anaheim - 282/339/428 (5.1 RC/game)
Red Sox - 281/360/468 (5.5 RC/game)

Offensive Efficiency:
Anaheim - 96.1%
Boston - 96.9%

‘Clutch number’
Anaheim - 22.253
Boston - (-14.063)

Stolen Bases
Anaheim - 6.9 BG 75%
Boston - (-5.7 BG) 60%

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense.

Sacrifices
Anaheim - 5.75 per 550 PA
Boston - 1.26 per 550 PA

Pitching
Thursday - Lowe (5.044) vs. Washburn (12.055)
Friday - Wakefield (20.101) vs.Escobar (19.159)
Saturday - Martinez (31.197) vs. Colon (-8.048)
Sunday - Schilling (40.357) vs. Lackey (10.427)

Rotations
Anaheim - 42.012
Boston - 115.538

Bullpens
Anaheim - 70.149
Boston - 71.087

Usage
Anaheim - 2.2 RpG, 1.46 IPpApp
Boston - 2.6 RpG, 1.09 IPpApp

Best 4 Bullpen-
Angels
Rodriguez 22.710
Shields 17.085
Gregg 13.292
Ortiz 12.489

Red Sox
Foulke 23.634
Timlin 12.512
Williamson 11.583
Embree 6.435

The Sox will be in Anaheim this evening to open an important four game series against the Angels. Derek Lowe will toe the rubber for the Sox and Jarrod Washburn will pitch for the Halos. Washburn, and really this entire match-up itself pose a series of contrasts for the prognosticator.

Jarrod Washburn is hell on lefties, yielding just a .581 OPS against them in 2004. This should make things difficult for Damon, Ortiz and Nixon. On the other hand, Washburn has been terrible at home in 2004. The opposition has posted better than a .900 OPS when Washburn takes to his home hill.

The Angels pitching staff has posted a respectable 4.38 ERA. But a closer look reveals that Angels starters have just a 4.92 ERA while their relievers are almost solely responsible for their respectable team figure, with a 3.37 ERA of their own.

Anaheim is 7th in the AL in runs scored but next-to-last in walks. It’s this particular fact that I think may bode well for Derek Lowe this evening. Anecdotally, and this has been stated here before, Derek Lowe is a far more effective pitcher against aggressive teams. Lowe is best when he is goading the opposition to swing at pitches that appear to be strikes but dive beneath the strike zone. The result is often a ground ball out. When Derek Lowe struggles, it is generally because a patient team game plans to wait him out. After all, Lowe throws very few called strikes. The result of this strategy can sometimes be an increase in Lowe’s walk totals but more often, the result is that hitters can dig in because Lowe falls behind in the count and must decrease his margin of error by throwing a strike down the middle.

Let’s hope this is the night we see something of a turnaround from Derek Lowe. If he is effective this summer and down the stretch, it could make all the difference.

Trade talks abound

The CBOT squawk box apparently revealed that Randy Johnson would be coming to the Red Sox with White Sox prospects headed ot the desert and Nomar going to the South Side. Why anyone ought to trust the CBOT squawk box with respect to a blockbuster baseball trade is well beyond me but whatever, it’s pretty juicy.

In addition to the Unit rumors, there is also now talk of Todd Helton possibly coming to Boston, per Denver Sports Radio.

I don’t even want to try and analyze these possible deals because who knows if there is even a shred of truth to either of them.

But you can bet I will be scouring for any updates.