Jerry Remy wouldn’t stop reminding the NESN television audience that Barry Zito’s curveball, when on, is baseball’s best. I am inclined to agree I guess but I was wondering, “what happened to Barry Zito”? I began to develop a bit of a theory as to why Zito has lost effectiveness. Much has been made, at least in the statistical community, of his declining K-rates:
K/9
2001: 8.61
2002: 7.14
2003: 5.67
2004: 6.93
Still, his strikeout rate has improved this year and yet his numbers are way up. David Pinto correctly notes that his GB/FB ratio is down. This is often symptomatic of a pitcher getting hit harder – something certainly happening to Zito in 2004. It seems to me that from 2000-2002, Zito got by with pinpoint location on his fastball and a devastating, big-breaking curveball. Sure he had been mixing in a change-up here and there over that time but not with the propensity he has the last year and a half or so. I believe it is because, with just two pitches, hitters learned to adjust over time. This trend has necessitated the rushed development of his change and he simply does not yet have the command over the change that he does his other pitches.
This was on full display last night. The Sox were able to wait Zito out, watching his curveball miss the zone and his change-up miss badly as they sat on what really is a pretty ordinary fastball that Zito features. Throwing 87 MPH with one good breaking pitch and one bad one is no formula for Major League Baseball pitching success.
Of course Zito’s opponent last night, Tim Wakefield, essentially features just one pitch (strikeout of Jermaine Dye on a fastball notwithstanding). But when said pitch is a knuckleball, you might as well have 75 pitches because rarely does the knuckleball move in the same manner. Wakefield was magnificent last night. In command throughout, he yielded just 3 hits and a walk over 7 innings. He also struck out 6.
The Red Sox offensive attack was thorough and relentles. They banged out 17 hits and perhaps most encouraging of all was the fact that in the two innings they loaded the bases with nobody out, they did what most teams do in these situations – like…um…score some runs.
Bill Mueller, professional hitter, started the offensive attack with a three-run second inning home run. Mark Bellhorn had a nice game. Nomar chipped in with a couple of singles and a couple of RBI. Doug Mirabelli had 2 hits and 3 runs. But the undisputed offensive star of the night was centerfielder Johnny Damon, who collected 5 hits in his first 5 at-bats and had the crowd on his feet when he came up with a chance for his sixth hit of the night. I think it is time Damon received some recognition for the season he is having thus far.
I was convinced 2000 was a fluke. He had been pretty good in 1999 but since 2000, Damon really had not even approached his 2000 totals. Until this year, that is.
2000: .327/.382/.495
2001-2003: .271/.341/.403
2004: .307/.395/.457
With Carlos Beltran now playing in Houston, Damon is easily the American League’s best centerfielder. The top of the order igniter Royals fans witnessed around the turn of the century has managed to resurrect himself. The best news of all? Damon has been a notorious slow starter throughout the course of his career so it would be entirely reasonable to expect continued excellence from Damon.
With Damon and Mueller bookends in the lineup last night, signs of what this offensive attack can be started to show. From the clean effort from Wakefield, to a healthy lineup top to bottom, to Manny and Ortiz struggling in a Sox rout, to a big night from Kevin Millar, to the timely hitting with runners on, everything about last night just felt different.
Now let’s keep it going. Pedro and Redman tonight.
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