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By Sully, 8/31/2004 5:35 pm

Articulating the phenomenon is a virtual impossibility but it’s most definitely upon us. It’s the stretch run and I know it because the Red Sox were the very last thing I thought about before I went to bed last night and the first thing that popped into my head this morning. I know it because on more than a couple of occasions today at work, while in the midst of projects requiring undivided attention, I have wondered if John Lackey would have it tonight. Or if we might catch a glimpse of the transcendent Schill instead of the merely very good one? Do the Rangers have what it takes to stick around? Are the Yanks really going to fade? Is this Oakland’s best team yet? Hell can anyone even beat the Cards anyway? I am consumed by baseball and I know I will be for the next 50-60 days.

Tonight marks the first night of the rest of the baseball season and signs of late-season ball will abound. It won’t be light out anymore in the 4th inning. The crowd may raise to its feet with two strikes and two outs…in the first inning. There will be buzz and announcers will speak in flowry prose and the cliche machines will be cranking ‘em out and fathers will check in with sons every morning and goosebumps will get goosebumps and elation will give way to heartache and heartache to overwhelming glee…

…all because it’s here.

Enjoy.

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By Jeff,

I wouldn’t miss these games for the world…

One interesting thing to watch…right now the Angels are going with a 4 man rotation, and a 10 man pitching staff.

Offense
c – Benji Molina 282/307/431 (4.5 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 306/400/509 (6.5 RC/27)

1b – Darren Erstad 316/365/432 (6.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 295/379/456 (5.6 RC/27)

2b – Adam Kennedy 271/343/392 (4.3 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 264/377/450 (6.2 RC/27)

3b – Chone Figgens 292/350/414 (5.2 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 286/365/448 (5.6 RC/27)

ss – David Eckstein 288/344/341 (3.8 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 270/291/432 (3.9 RC/27)

lf – Jose Guillen 304/365/528 (7.2 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 316/407/618 (7.8 RC/27)

cf – Garret Anderson 311/353/444 (6.1 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 305/383/463 (6.0 RC/27)

rf – Vlad Guerrero 331/384/571 (7.5 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 250/333/375 (3.4 RC/27)

dh – Troy Glaus 291/391/682 (10.2 RC/27)
David Ortiz 301/375/605 (7.7 RC/27)

Bench
Anaheim
Alfredo Amezaga 141/193/154 (0.3 RC/27)
Jeff DaVanon 304/388/456 (6.8 RC/27)
Jose Molina 251/285/361 (3.1 RC/27)
Josh Paul 263/317/404 (4.1 RC/27)
Curtis Pride 286/318/381 (3.3 RC/27)
Adam Riggs 133/188/200 (1.9 RC/27)

Boston
Rickey Guiterrez 367/387/400 (2.9 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 275/307/400 (3.3 RC/27)
Douf Mientkewicz 245/273/358 (2.8 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 280/348/528 (6.4 RC/27)

Team
Anaheim – 288/344/432 (5.2)
Boston – 283/360/471 (5.6)

Offensive Efficiency:
Anaheim – 99.7%
Boston – 96.2%

Clutch Number:
Anaheim – 2.063
Boston – 1.878

Stolen Bases:
Anaheim – 8.5 BG 74%
Boston – (-11.1 BG) 69%

Sacrifices:
Anaheim – 5.13 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.17 per 550 PA

Pitching
Tuesday:
John Lackey 11-10 5.00 (11.040)
Curt Schilling 16-6 3.38 (54.255)

Wednesday:
Aaron Sele 8-1 4.35 (16.080)
Bronson Arroyo 7-9 4.07 (31.436)

Thursday:
Bartolo Colon 13-10 5.38 (5.288)
Derek Lowe 12-10 5.22 (14.442)

Rotations:
Anaheim – 71.580
Boston – 173.763

Bullpens:
Anaheim – 95.732
Brandon Donnolly – 7.425
Kevin Gregg – 13.766
Ramon Ortiz – 13.994
Troy Percival – 9.352
Francisco Rodriguez – 28.827
Scot Shields – 24.793

Boston – 83.598
Terry Adams – (-4.047)
Alan Embree – 7.819
Keith Foulke – 32.155
Curt Leskanic – 2.483
Ramiro Mendoza – 9.059
Mike Myers – 2.702
Mike Timlin – 12.553

Usage:
Anaheim – 2.1 RpG, 1.43 IPpApp
Boston – 2.5 RpG, 1.02 IPpApp

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By Sully, 8/30/2004 8:56 am

Back in April, when the Sox couldn’t seem to lose, I wrote this:

“Simply put, on almost every night, the Red Sox will start the better starter, field the better lineup, replace their starting pitcher with better relievers and replace their position players if needed with better role players than their opponent. It’s a simple and simultaneously alarmingly effective means of achieving baseball success.”

Of course if you happened across that excerpt plowing through our archives in say, June, you would have thought me an imbecile. And you might be right but that’s neither here nor there. With respect to this particular quote, I just want to say that this 18-4 stretch the Sox are currently in the midst of has been a bit vindicating for me. All season my attitude was that teams that hit and pitch as well as the Sox do win at a far greater clip than they did for three months. Patience was not always easy and admittedly, I lost mine in brief fits of anger from time to time. But on the whole, I remained confident that wins would come and they would come furiously. I wrote this on June 30th:

“Hang in there, Sox fans. Your team is too talented to fade.”

And I wrote this on June 24th:

“I can’t wait for this club to go all 2002-A’s on the rest of the league this summer.”

So it took until late summer but here we are taking on all comers and winning in a variety of ways, a true mark of a great team.

Conventional wisdom might have it that they are playing over their heads. But are they? When you look up and down the Red Sox August statistics, only Jason Varitek is really going crazy and I would submit that this is more than offset by disappointing months from Gabe Kapler, Doug Mientkiewicz, Orlando Cabrera and to a lesser extent, Johnny Damon. On the pitching side of things, there has been clear improvement but just mean progression really. Derek lowe has been far more consistent but his E.R.A. for the month is just about right on his PECOTA weighted mean projection. Wakefield is still far below his norm for the month but that is only because of his 6 home run shelling he took in Detroit. He was phenomenal yesterday. Quietly, Pedro has become Pedro again and Schilling is looking as strong as he has all year too. The bullpen is once again looking strong and is there a better fifth starter in baseball right now than Bronson Arroyo?

It would be irresponsible to dump all this praise on the Sox without noting that their competition in August has been terrible. The true test lays ahead. Their next nine games are against their main playoff competition (although the Yankees are close to joining this group), the Anaheim Angels and Texas Rangers at home and then three against the Athletics in Oakland. Luckily for the Sox, they miss Anaheim’s two most formidable starters, Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar and Texas’ only formidable starter, Kenny Rogers. Anything less than 4-2 this week would undoubtedly be a failure.

Get ready for the home stretch, folks.

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By Sully, 8/27/2004 9:14 am

Bronson Arroyo shook off some of his Fenway jitters and pitched a whale of a ballgame last night for the Sox. His knee-buckling breaking ball was this particular night’s special but the well-placed heater was also a dependable item. He really got into trouble just once – in the sixth – and was able to get out of it with a devastating, 3-2 breaking ball that made MVP-candidate Carlos Guillen look silly.

There were a couple of encouraging signs on the managerial front. First, Terry Francona did not push his luck with Arroyo. He pulled him for Mike Timlin with one out in the eighth inning after the artist formerly known as Bobbby Higginson doubled. Timlin has become the bullpen flavor du jour for the Sox, now more confident than I have him seen all season with his fastball. He is getting it up there 93-94 MPH and with some serious action on it too. The other hopeful sign last night was that Francona penciled Mark Bellhorn back into the number 2 slot in the batting order. Bellhorn respnded finally aftyer three consecutive strikeouts with a double and a single, the latter plating an important eighth inning insurance run.

Seemingly back to pitching like he is capable, Keith Foulke dusted off the Tigers in the ninth, preserving a 4-1 lead and picking up a worry-free save in the process.

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By Sully, 8/26/2004 5:29 pm

Why has Dave Roberts been batting second?

The only thing that sucked about last night’s top of the 4th was that Roberts, batting second in Terry Francona’s lineup, made both outs. One on a bunt pop-up to the catcher (smallball…wheeeee) and the other when he made the inning’s final out with the bases full on a feeble grounder to third base.

I don’t think I need to go far beyond saying that any lineup consisting of Bill Mueller and Mark Bellhorn has no need whatsoever for Dave Roberts in the 2-hole. Hopefully last night put an end to that.

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By Jeff,

I really love that Sully has taken to doing a write up for many of the games. Not only does that task bore me, but it frees me up to other things, like play with numbers [/geek]

What I did was go and figure out the strength of each teams schedule currently in the playoff hunt. The method was to take the winning percentage of each team on the schedule (the Home WP if the team was home, Away if they were away), and multiplied by the amount of games left.

Then I summed that, and divided by the amount of total games, and got this:

BOS .514
ANA .514
OAK .465
TEX .495
NYY .466

Then what I did was use the log5 system in Bill James 81 Abstract and used the SOS and the current W% to figure out the records if things hold.

Nyy 101 -61 —
Bos 93-69 8 GB

Oak 95-67 —
Ana 93-69 2 GB
Tex 91-71 4 GB

Bos 93-69 —
Ana 93-69 —
Tex 91-71 2 GB

So…if everything holds up as it has been, it looks like the Yankees would play the Twins in the first round, and the Red Sox would play Oakland.

Unless the Sox lost the one game playoff…then it would be Yankees/Anaheim and Oakland/Minnesota.

Repeat of 2002 or 2003.

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By Sully,

The top half of the fourth inning was the most enjoyable half inning of baseball I have witnessed in 2004.

Three home runs by three players with wonderfully contrasting styles. Manny hit an 0-1 pitch out to dead centerfield by virtue of his swing that combines mechanical precision with violent power. Manny creamed the slightly high pitch and right after he hit it, I just yelled, “what!?!”, as if I were uttering aloud what Manny was thinking as he swung. “How dare you even think you are getting me on that pitch?”

David Ortiz came up next. His home run was majestic. His gorgeous, uppercut swing resulted in a towering fly ball that anyone watching knew the field of play would be unable to contain. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are both sluggers of the highest orders and yet they get it done in strikingly different manners. Manny is precise, fundamentally perfect and hits the ball with dumbfounding authority. David Ortiz, due mostly to his size, is equally powerful. But whereas Manny uses the six iron to muscle the ball with a nice trajectory a long way, Ortiz can crush the sand wedge. His is ball flight reaches unthinkable heights and is, to me at least, poetic.

The final home run in the inning was smacked by new Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Like the smallish but proud, strong kid on the playground that wants to stake out his claim, Cabrera seemingly just wanted to establish his presence. As though he had no idea he is an undersized middle infielder, Cabrera took a Hank Aaron-esque, violent cut at a mistake from Bllue Jay pitcher Josh Towers and blasted a four-bagger of his own over the left field fence.

I won’t soon forget that inning. The Sox went on to win 11-5 and now come home to face the Detroit Tigers for four games at Fenway.

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By Sully, 8/25/2004 8:47 am

The Sox stole one last night. Outplayed, Boston still managed to come away with a 5-4 victory. Doug Mirabelli and Mike Timlin, in my estimation, were the game’s heroes.

Doug Mirabelli, the Red Sox primary backstop for two more days because of Jason Varitek’s suspension, pounded a 2-1 offering from Miguel Batista over SkyDome’s left field wall for a three-run home run. Almost instantaneously, what had been a plodding and lackluster effort by the Red Sox turned into a more enthused one. Mike Timlin’s performance in the bottom half of the sixth evidenced this point. After Tim Wakefield loaded the bases with nobody out, Terry Francona called upon Mike Timlin to try and preserve the two-run lead. Timlin was able to strikeout Reed Johnson and Orlando Hudson and then set down Alex Rios on a routine grounder to wiggle the Sox out of the inning unscathed. The Jays would get another run across the board off of Timlin in the seventh before Ramiro Mendoza and Keith Foulke would finish off the Jays, pitching the eighth and ninth respectively.

I imagine much will be said today of the renewed Sox spirit – how they are able to win one-run games now and some may even praise Theo, assigning credit for the recent one-run wins to Nomar’s absence and Minky and Cabrera’s presence. Try and block it out. The recent spate of one-run victories represents little (if anything) more than mean regression. The Sox were not going to be as bad as they had been in one-run games all season. So enjoy it and try and account for it if that’s your thing. But be rational. “This team’s just got a different feel” doesn’t cut it.

Elsewhere, The Soxaholix have turned in another bang-up effort this morning.

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By Sully, 8/24/2004 8:35 am

So faster than I can say “the Red Sox are baseball’s best team”, Ted Lilly twirls the game of his life. To be perfectly honest and especially when you consider that Boston’s lineup is MLB’s best, it was the most masterful performance I have seen since Pedro’s unforgettable September-’99-17K gem. Not much you can do other than tip your cap and move on. His breaking ball was unhittable and he spotted a crisp fastball impeccably all night.

Just 28, I would not be surprised in the least to see Lilly put it together and become one of the league’s best pitchers one of these seasons.

Tonight, Tim Wakefield faces Miguel Batista. Both have fallen a bit short of expectations this season so expect the offense for both teams to make more noise than least evening. Of course, even a whimper from the visitors’ lineup would constitute more noise than last evening…

Oh well.

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By Sully, 8/23/2004 10:18 am

Now this is fun.

The Red Sox won their sixth consecutive game last night, polishing off an impressive three game sweep against the South Side Other Sox. I am not interested quite yet (but I very well might be soon) in discussing our southwesterly neighbors but let’s just say I think they hear us coming. Damn it’s cool to be pulling for a team playing like a bunch of bad-asses and having a good time doing it.

Knowing a strong August push would be essential in their quest for the postseason, the Red Sox have responded by posting a 14-6 record for the month while outscoring their opponents 130-88 in the process.

Looking at ESPN’s standings page and further, at team OPS totals, it is hard to argue that the Red Sox do not at least have a case to be considered baseball’s best team.

Look at these numbers in “Runs Scored / Runs Against / differential” format…

Boston: 703 / 583 / +120
New York Yankees: 671 / 606 / +65
St. Louis: 669 / 504 / +165

It appears that these numbers would indicate that the Red Sox are still a little ways behind the Cards, despite appearing to be better than the Yankees (at least with respect to scoring and preventing runs). But remember, the Red Sox have one of baseball’s most inefficient offenses and their peripheral statistics indicate that they ought to have plated more runs. Similarly, their pitching has been better than their runs-against number would indicate.

Consider these, in “OPS / OPS-against / OPS differential” format…

Boston: 832 / 729 / +103
New York Yankees: 807 / 758 / +49
St. Louis: 808 / 713 / +95

Bear in mind that OPS is a merely quick-and-dirty means of evaluating performance. But I think you get the point. The Sox have been producing all year without the wins to show for it.

I think it is important for me to stress that I write this now not to express any embitterment about the Sox’s underachievement to this point. Instead, I write this to warn doubters that this 14-6 stretch is no hot streak – no anomaly – but instead a long overdue attainment of a record befitting both their ability and performance levels.

Expect more of the same going forward.

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By Jeff, 8/20/2004 7:29 pm

Probably not, but I’m gonna find out.

I’ll be going to Cleveland from tomorrow until Tuesday to see the fine city, and go to the Jake on Monday to see Mike Mussina against Cliff Lee.

I’ll catch up with you guys Tuesday night/Wednesday.

Also, PokeyPerson took exception to Big Analysis in the comments section of my last post. Sorry. I’ll start changing what I do for people that troll blogs. We already have a designated troll.

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By Jeff, 8/19/2004 1:38 am

I’m going to level with you. I won’t be saying much in this post. Instead, I give you Big Analysis. Big Anaylsis is me just giving you the stats that I usually use in my Series Preview on the team level for every team.

Upon discussion with Dewey’s House stalker Gerbil, Clutch Number has been renamed Cajones Factor. Who said stats are boring? Certainly not me.

American League
Adjusted Runs/Game

This is the park adjusted, runs per game that each team creates.

1. Cleveland Indians 5.64
2. New York Yankees 5.63
3. Detroit Tigers 5.62
4. Boston Red Sox 5.51
5. Chicago White Sox 5.22
6. Anaheim Angels 5.17
7. Baltimore Orioles 5.11
8. Oakland Athletics 4.99
9. Texas Rangers 4.99
10. Minnesota Twins 4.52
11. Tampa Devil Rays 4.49
12. Seattle Mariners 4.42
13. Kansas City Royals 4.08
14. Toronto Blue Jays 4.06

Offensive Efficiency

Runs scored/Runs created

1. Yankees 102.6%
2. Orioles 102.0%
3. Indians 101.9%
4. Blue Jays 101.4%
5. Royals 101.3%
6. Rangers 100.4%
7. White Sox 100.1%
8. Tigers 99.3%
9. Athletics 98.9%
10. Angels 98.3%
11. Red Sox 97.6%
12. Devil Rays 97.1%
13. Mariners 93.8%
14. Twins 93.7%

Cajones Factor

Hits with RISP+HR with MOB over expectation

1. Yankees 24.614
2. Athletics 19.117
3. White Sox 14.734
4. Devil Rays 9.919
5. Rangers 8.578
6. Angels 7.624
7. Royals 5.022
8. Tigers 0.590
9. Red Sox -4.143
10. Mariners -7.209
11. Indians -16.804
12. Blue Jays -18.800
13. Twins -19.496
14. Orioles -25.922

Bases Gained on Steals

Bases gained or lost via the steal, given a 73% break even rate

1. Angels 16.9
2. Yankees 12.9
3. Mariners 7.6
4. Devil Rays -1.5
5. Orioles -3.1
6. Twins -4.5
7. Athletics -13.1
8. Red Sox -14.7
9. Blue Jays -24.1
10. Rangers -24.8
11. Indians -33.5
12. White Sox -35.5
13. Royals -41.1
14. Tigers -50.1

Sacrifices

Number of Sacrifice bunts per 550 plate appearences

1. White Sox 5.49
2. Angels 5.47
3. Tigers 4.71
4. Mariners 4.64
5. Indians 4.43
6. Orioles 4.00
7. Royals 3.89
8. Twins 3.71
9. Yankees 3.30
10. Devil Rays 3.06
11. Rangers 2.18
12. Blue Jays 2.14
13. Athletics 1.61
14. Red Sox 0.92

Runs saved – Full staff

Runs saved over a hypothetical replacement level staff

1. Twins 233.3
2. Red Sox 228.1
3. Rangers 225.0
4. Athletics 211.8
5. Blue Jays 167.0
6. White Sox 164.3
7. Angels 156.2
8. Yankees 145.4
9. Devil Rays 137.4
10. Royals 124.7
11. Orioles 119.7
12. Indians 99.6
13. Mariners 87.4
14. Tigers 79.3

Runs saved – Rotation

1. Athletics 157.9
2. Red Sox 151.4
3. Twins 140.8
4. Blue Jays 113.0
5. Rangers 99.2
6. White Sox 90.4
7. Indians 81.3
8. Angels 66.2
9. Yankees 65.8
10. Mariners 57.3
11. Orioles 42.8
12. Devil Rays 41.7
13. Royals 39.9
14. Tigers 34.2

Runs saved – Bullpens

1. Rangers 122.9
2. Devil Rays 93.6
3. Twins 91.5
4. Angels 90.0
5. Royals 82.9
6. Yankees 79.6
7. Red Sox 78.1
8. Orioles 76.0
9. White Sox 73.9
10. Athletics 53.8
11. Blue Jays 51.0
12. Tigers 44.4
13. Mariners 30.1
14. Indians 17.3

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By Sully, 8/17/2004 11:52 am

Well, it’s sunny again today down here in San Diego this morning – just as it was last night for my first trip to Petco Park, the San Diego Padres’ new ballpark right in the heart of the Gaslamp District. Petco is nice though noticeably without a real defining characteristic. That’s ok though. Because of the natural climate in San Diego, there was no need to try too hard. Just erect a pleasant structure with a little bit of that retro feel and some good site lines, mix in 73 degrees and sunny every night at first-pitch time and the place was going to be a hit. And it is. A few different times during the game I found myself shaking my head at just how great my life was at that particular moment – great ballpark, two good teams and absolutely perfect weather.

The game itself was pretty darn exciting too. It was an important tilt for the Padres who entered last night’s game deadlocked with the Chicago Cubs for the National League Wild Card lead. Sterling Hitchcock squared off against Atlanta’s Mike Hampton.

Hitchcock had a fine first inning but struggled in the second. Andruw Jones began the inning with a rocket of a home run that had little problem negotiating Petco’s spacious center field. After an Eli Marrero double, Hitchcock was able to strike Eddie Perez out and with the pitcher coming to the plate, it appeared as though one run might be all the Braves would get. Not so, however, as Mike Hampton jumped all over Hitchcock’s first offereing and missed a home run by just inches. Marrero would score to make the game 2-0.

The Padres again went quietly in the second and Sterling Hitchcock was again victimized by a Jones leading off the third inning. This time it was Chipper, batting righthanded, roping a ball into the left field seats for his fourth homer in four games and more interestingly, his 300th career home run. Chipper and to a lesser extent Andruw both started off 2004 a bit slowly but man are they both htting now.

Pre All-Star:
Chipper: .214/.327/.414
Andrue: .250/.344/.491

Post All-Star:
Chipper: .296/.381/.583
Andruw: .305/.392/.524

It was now 3-0 and it looked like Atlanta might have Hitchcock on the ropes. But Hitchcock settled down nicely, giving up just a hit and two walks until he was lifted with one out in the seventh inning for Blaine Neal. The Padres, having tallied in the home half of the fourth when Mark Loretta and Phil Nevin doubled and singled consecutively, were trailing by two runs with Rafael Furcal on first and Marcus Giles at bat when Neal entered. Giles grounded out to first, moving Furcal (who stole second) to third. Atlanta’s best player, J.D. Drew, came to he plate. He got ahaead of Neal 2-0 before fouling off the third pitch. He then crushed a 2-1 fast ball into the left field stands. It was the best opposite field swing I have ever seen somebody not named Manny Ramirez take – truly a thing of beauty.

The incident called into question Padres manager Bruce Bochy’s decision making process a bit and it is something Red Sox fans have grown accustomed to with Terry Francona. The Padres employ two lights out relievers in Scott Linebrink and Akinori Otsuka. Why were the two nowhere to be found in last night’s nail-biter? Because Bochy pitched both in a 7-2 victory in Cincinnati the day before. When Linebrink entered in the seventh, it was already 7-2 – a lead most any Major League caliber reliever ought to be able to preserve. That’s Blaine Neal time. Not in the seventh inning of a two-run game with Giles and Drew coming up. That’s Linebrink time.

In the bottom half of the seventh, the Padres looked dead in the water. Trailing by four with two outs and nobody on and the brutal Jay Payton at the plate, there was little hope or buzz around the ballpark. But Payton would change that with a triple into the left field corner. Ramon Hernandez followed with a single that plated Payton and made it a three run game befor Brian Buchanan, hitting in the pitcher’s spot, bounced out to end the frame.

When we first sat in our seats and I saw Bruce Bochy’s lineup for the night, I wondered why the hell Rich Aurilia would ever be batting second in this lineup. I have no problem with him spelling the struggling Sean Burroughs, especially against a southpaw, but why bat him in the two-hole? Without a prototypical two-hitter, why not try and get your best hitters as many at-bats as possible?

Well the Pads clawed their way back into the ball game by stringing together baserunners and even collecting consecutive base hits off of the mighty John Smoltz in the eighth to come within one run. In the ninth, after Smoltz retired the firs two Padres hitters, Khalil Greene walked. So with two outs and the game winning run at the plate, the Padres sent up their number two hitter, Rich Aurilia (.677 OPS). He struck out with Mark Loretta (.893 OPS), Phil Nevin (.871 OPS), Brian Giles (.803 OPS) and Ryan Klesko (.792 OPS) all waiting to take hacks of their own.

I left the game thinking Atlanta was scary. With Hampton, Wright and Ortiz pitching as they are and the lineup starting to pound, this team can score with the best of them and prevent runs as well as anybody. Look at these pre and post All-Star numbers:

Braves Batting:
Pre: .262/.330/.430
Post: .279/.355/.439

Braves Opponents’ Batting:
Pre: .273/.33/.409
Post: .238/.299/.344

The Braves are seventeen games over .500 and improving daily. They are, in my opinion, favorites to represent the National League in 2004′s Fall Classic.

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By Jeff, 8/16/2004 12:41 pm

Unlike my Irish friend, I will not be in Southern California for the next week. Due to a crazy work schedule, look for bizarre posting times in the future!

Offense
c – Greg Zaun 276/378/401 (6.2 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 302/399/485 (6.4 RC/27)

1b – Carlos Delgado 236/339/476 (5.8 RC/27)
Doug Mientkiewicz 270/308/324 (3.9 RC/27)

2b – Orlando Hudson 258/340/419 (5.5 RC/27)
Rickey Guiterrez 278/316/333 (-0.3 RC/27)

3b – Eric Hinske 251/314/373 (3.8 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 278/355/447 (5.6 RC/27)

ss – Chris Gomez 286/343/347 (5.9 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 203/230/322 (2.4 RC/27)

lf – Reed Johnson 274/327/379 (5.1 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 317/407/617 (7.5 RC/27)

cf – Vernon Wells 281/344/456 (5.3 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 301/379/461 (5.8 RC/27)

rf – Alex Rios 290/334/398 (4.7 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 306/382/473 (5.8 RC/27)

dh – Frank Catalanotto 309/357/411 (6.3 RC/27)
David Ortiz 311/378/617 (8.1 RC/27)

Bench
Toronto
Dave Berg 266/288/353 (4.4 RC/27)
Kevin Cash 195/254/308 (2.5 RC/27)
Gabe Gross 200/333/450 (6.1 RC/27)
Frank Menechino 310/415/523 (8.6 RC/27)
Chris Woodward 236/275/360 (4.0 RC/27)

Boston
Gabe Kapler 282/316/423 (3.6 RC/27)
David McCarty 246/323/384 (3.6 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 287/363/564 (6.3 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 222/273/333 (1.1 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 281/384/461 (6.8 RC/27)*
*Suffered lower leg contusion on 8/15.

Team
Toronto – 261/328/398 (5.0)
Boston – 282/359/469 (5.5)

Offensive Efficiency:
Toronto – 123.2%
Boston – 97.2%

Clutch Number:
Toronto – (-19.776)
Boston – (-4.450)

Stolen Bases:
Toronto – (-23.4 BG) 62%
Boston – (-15.7 BG) 66%

Sacrifices:
Toronto – 2.19 per 550 PA
Boston – 0.95 per 550 PA

Pitching
Monday:
Justin Miller 1-1 4.38 (9.573)
Derek Lowe 10-10 5.33 (8.808)

Tuesday:
Ted Lilly 8-8 3.82 (36.606)
Pedro Martinez 13-4 3.72 (41.846)

Wednesday:
Miguel Batista 9-8 4.35 (31.609)
Tim Wakefield 8-7 4.67 (19.158)

Rotations:
Toronto – 112.085
Boston – 141.974

Bullpens:
Toronto – 51.806
Vinnie Chaulk – 9.817
Sean Douglass – 2.076
Jason Frasor – 18.555
Kevin Frederick – 0.153
Kerry Lightenberg – 0.120
Justin Speier – 8.290

Boston – 76.036
Terry Adams – (-0.623)
Alan Embree – 6.693
Keith Foulke – 28.527
Ramiro Mendoza – 7.357
Mike Myers – 2.251
Mike Timlin – 10.725

Usage:
Toronto – 2.6 RpG, 1.11 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.04 IPpApp

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By Sully, 8/13/2004 5:49 pm

I am off to Southern California tomorrow morning and will be posting infrequently. I will be taking in games at PetCo and Dodger Stadium so I will hopefully be able to report back.

Go Sox!

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By Jeff,

Be sure to scroll down to read posts from this morning and last night.

Offense
c – Ben Davis 308/308/481 (6.5 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 286/381/467 (5.9 RC/27)

1b – Paul Konerko 284/364/549 (6.1 RC/27)
Doug Mientkiewicz 281/303/344 (3.3 RC/27)

2b – Roberto Alomar 143/136/286 (3.1 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 278/355/449 (5.6 RC/27)

3b – Joe Crede 232/288/412 (3.1 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 282/383/471 (7.0 RC/27)

ss – Jose Valentin 231/298/523 (5.6 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 196/229/326 (2.0 RC/27)

lf – Carlos Lee 291/353/506 (6.3 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 317/409/610 (7.6 RC/27)

cf – Aaron Rowand 303/354/536 (6.1 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 304/379/468 (5.9 RC/27)

rf – Timo Perez 250/297/335 (4.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 305/382/466 (5.7 RC/27)

dh – Carl Everett 243/296/378 (4.7 RC/27)
David Ortiz 311/377/610 (8.1 RC/27)

Bench
Chicago
Sandy Alomar 241/299/293 (2.5 RC/27)
Joe Borchard 193/281/246 (2.0 RC/27)
Ross Gload 277/329/392 (3.9 RC/27)
Willie Harris 272/363/332 (4.7 RC/27)
Juan Uribe 261/315/461 (4.4 RC/27)

Boston
Rickey Guiterrez 267/267/333 (-1.5 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 286/321/427 (3.8 RC/27)
David McCarty 246/323/384 (3.7 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 278/358/567 (6.2 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 250/300/375 (2.3 RC/27)

Team
Chicago – 268/335/459 (5.2)
Boston – 279/357/467 (5.4)

Offensive Efficiency:
Chicago – 100.4%
Boston – 98.3%

Clutch Number:
Chicago – 13.927
Boston – (-11.051)

Stolen Bases:
Chicago – (-34.8 BG) 62%
Boston – (-15.7 BG) 66%

Sacrifices:
Chicago – 5.29 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.00 per 550 PA

Pitching
Friday:
Jose Contreras 1-0 1.93 (6.406)
Tim Wakefield 8-6 4.58 (20.756)

Saturday:
John Garland 8-8 4.70 (23.013)
Curt Schilling 13-6 3.61 (43.687)

Sunday:
Mark Buehrle 10-6 3.83 (42.106)
Bronson Arroyo 5-8 4.14 (25.810)

Rotations:
Chicago – 88.083
Boston – 138.859

Bullpens:
Chicago – 71.589
Jon Adkins – 12.545
Neal Cotts – 5.081
Mike Jackson – 5.649
Damaso Marte – 17.831
Cliff Politte – 6.664
Shingo Takatsu – 21.560

Boston – 75.908
Terry Adams – 1.147
Alan Embree – 7.203
Keith Foulke – 27.793
Ramiro Mendoza – 5.543
Mike Myers – 1.799
Mike Timlin – 11.444

Usage:
Chicago – 2.4 RpG, 1.07 IPpApp
Boston – 2.5 RpG, 1.05 IPpApp

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By Sully,

There is an article up over at Dirt Dog’s site that I just cannot resist tackling here.

DJS (not sure who this is) starts like this…

The Marlins and Angels have won the Series with “backdoor entry”, while the Sox have only rare post-season play by any other avenue since its inception, but there is something particularly unsatisfying about groveling for a wild card with this team and it’s not even my $120 million.

Gramatically, this sentence would make Gammons blush. But forget that for a minute. He is taking a jab at the Red Sox for only being able to compete for the Wild Card when they have ponied up $120M-plus for this club. According to DJS and I think I would agree to some extent, wins ought to correlate closely to payroll. But isn’t the only viable conclusion to this line of thought, given the Yankees $183M payroll that the only playoff spot the Sox have a shot at would be the wild card? There is an argument to be made that the Sox have underachieved. But when they have a payroll just 2/3rds of another division opponent, that argument is not that that their payroll ought to afford them a division crown.

Certainly, all will be forgiven if a playoff and October white-wash emerges, but looking at it from the investment and return perspective of…say…a billionaire options trader, a finish equivalent or worse than last season seems money poorly spent, with heads to roll in consequence.

This is just a mindless jab catering to the lowest common denominator fan. Ignore all the circumstances and then kill management – classic Boston mook fan mentality. I wonder how many wins DJS thinks all the games lost to injury would have been worth?

Start with the talent brain trust, which added one of the best pitchers and relievers in the game, re-signed one of the best power hitters cheaply, but botched a mega-trade that left bridges burned and ultimately necessitated a trade, further undermining any sense of this team’s development relevance.

Let’s recap the “botched” trade. We would have Alex Rodriguez but no Manny.

AROD: .279/.366/.515
Manny: .317/.409/.610

Now sure, Manny plays left field and AROD would have played shortstop but still, that trade was no slam dunk, a point further reinforced when you consider that we also would have had the hobbled Magglio Ordonez as well.

And I have absolutely no idea what “development relevance” is.

In that, there are a mere handful of Sox players who actually worked for the club in the minors and while this may be par for the MLB now, i.e. you trade to success, this year’s result may again indicate such a temp staff road is also paved with nothing more than good intentions.

Again, I don’t understand this sentence but I think he is trying to say that developing home-grown talent is better. But is it? Like Sheffield, Brown, Giambi, Matsui, AROD and those powerful Yankees? What are those intentions paved with?

The mid-season discovery that the Club lacked gloves, omitting a fix for the still questionable 3-4-5 slots and relief woes, struck me as disingenuous from the molders of this team and possibly worse — cheap. While it’s nice to see double-digit ass-kickings of late and a fire lit under a previous offensive underperformer, whom do you trust to start in game three of any playoff series — Wake, Lowe or Arroyo? Depending on the day, you could get a no-hitter or softball game.

The team in the field was essentially the same defensive club that played last year. So the “lacking gloves” would seem to be offset by improved pitching. That Lowe and Wakefield both regressed badly was, in my opinion, entirely unforseeable and just something that happened. Further, both have been better of late. I don’t blame management there. As for Arroyo, to answer DJS’ question, damn skippy I am quite comfortable with Bronson starting Game 3 of a playoff series. He has given up more than four earned runs in a start just once since June 1st.

I see little chance Lowe will be resigned, which may preclude postseason starts should it happen, but that digresses from the view that somebody — in a suit — gets whacked for this season if the fund does not show better returns on year.

This is just crazy. What the hell does this mean? So if management has decided not to sign Lowe, this may hinder his ability to make postseason starts…should it happen…but he digresses…in a suit…and if the fund has poor returns…screw it, I give up.

After all the navel-gazing about ALCS Game 7, was the managerial selection a tremendous step up from Grady or a trump card in placating new acquisitions on the future Fenway house approach?

I am no big Tito fan so we can find a little common ground here. I think. But I don’t know what the “future Fenway house approach” is.

Close games still are not going the Sox way, which means either strategic, talent or motivational weaknesses or likely all three.

The Red Sox are 7-15 in one-run games this year. Wouldn’t it be better if they were more like, say, the Philadelphia Phillies. What with their spiffy 19-13 record in one-run games, they must be one of the best franchises in baseball this year. Right?

Fact is, and history supports this, that winning a great majority of one-run games is as much luck as anything else.

Our closer had 43 saves last year, while at this point in August has 18; is this just the nature of how the current team wins or the fact that it is not in a position to win too frequently?

Through 113 games last season, Oakland had 3 more wins than the Red Sox currently do. So, um, I think it is the former.

Rising E.R.A. for all starters indicate more latitude extended to get the W, but at what cost? Yippee, Wake gives up six bombs and wins, but the decision to keep him out there in a wildcard race, regardless of middle relief woes, boggles the mind. Francona is managing to win player trust, not games, and that is a liberty the Sox do not have.

I guess it boggles his mind but not mine. Wake, over the course of his career, has always demonstrated a propensity to settle down after getting hit hard. No need to exhaust the bullpen when there is a pretty good chance that your starter will be able to bounce back and do just as good a job.

And why is he claiming to know Terry Francona’s mangerial intentions?

Similarly, the traders of John Henry’s account must continue to execute whether a deadline has passed or not, using the same arbitrage that brought starters and relievers late last year. Just getting to the dance, as noted, is not enough, and the fund managers should expect termination or worse – comparison to their predecessors – if returns are not up on year.

Of course, when holding his portfolio managers accountable, I am sure Henry also considers market conditions.

The Red Sox have the American League’s best run differential. Stop flinging mud and try to realize that baseball’s a quirky sport. In short, shit happens. Why can’t we just leave it at that and root that fortunes change going forward?

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By Jeff, 8/12/2004 9:33 pm

Today, I was hit with my unique brand of writer’s block, so I asked the SoSH chatroom what I should write about. The ideas they had were ok, but I didn’t think I could spin a column out of them.

Therefore, what you are getting is topic ideas, and my terse reply. This is what makes Dewey’s House the Official Blog of the People. So much so, that ODB will ramble about it next time he’s at the Grammy’s, is cracked out, and wants to make RZA’s life a living hell.

I’m very white, by the way.

The Mets trading Kazmir

He’s one of the best prospects in baseball, and he was traded for Victor Zambrano? In terms of value, the Mets paid a steep price for a guy that will probably be a 4th starter.

Young pitchers are hard to project. Kazmir is slightly built, and might actually be destined to be a closer, but man, can he throw. Sometimes things just fall into your lap. Chuck LaMarr should put a picture of Jim Duquette up in his office.

Am I the last one to hear that Jimmy Anderson was traded?

Probably not, but the king of the mediocre Sox, Jimmy Anderson, was traded back to the Cubs. That means for a few weeks of Anderson, the Red Sox gave the Cubs non-prospect Andrew Shipley.

If Anderson is essentially traded for himself, does anyone care?

Just do what every blog does. Bitch about the Twins

Terry Ryan is overrated, and the team is the best in a crap division. They might have the best pitching staff in the AL. Their offense has been upgraded with Monreau, who will be a stud.

Gardenhire seems to be Tom Kelly’s understudy in getting under people’s skin, as he has exchanged words with Doug Mientkiewicz, and Jacque Jones.

Johan Santana is scary good.

The End of an Error

I guess this ment that in jettosing Garciaparra for Cabrera and Mientkiewicz, we upgraded defense. The Sox have committed five errors in the last 12 games, for two unearned runs.

Sweet.

Top 10 Reasons Dale Sveum is a douchebag

10. His name is pronounced Swain. It’s spelled Sveum.
9. He was on the 1998 Yankees
8. He hung Bellhorn out to dry against the Royals.
7. He looks like a shady poolhall attendant
6. He didn’t stick the screwdriver in his eye. He made Lynn Jones go first.
5. The way he got Dave Roberts, Jason Varitek, and Kevin Millar thrown out at home by Rocco Baldelli in the span of eight days.
4. Career on base percentage of .298, but he had a 12 year career.
3. He was traded for Bruce Ruffin and Keith Shepherd. That jerk.
2. The way his uniform top is too big so it tapers off at the belt. Numbers should be straight, not turning in.
1. The fact that he replaced Mike Cubbage, one of the best third base coaches in baseball.

Why did it take Pedro 4 years to throw a shutout?

In 2001, he missed most of the year. In 2002 and 2003, his shoulder was protected. And he’s a Dominican pansy, according to Dan Shaughnessy.

How did OC hit so well last year? Was it Vlad?

Fluke I suppose. I don’t buy protection theories, so I don’t know. He seems to be one of those every-other players, vacillating between good and bad. They should figure that out if they want to resign him for next year.

2005 will be a “good” if the pattern holds.

Why do people hate me?

Because you hooked up with Dale Sveum. You harlot.

Wow, I hope it this piece comes off as awkward as I think it will. The Official Red Sox Blog of the People owes that to it’s readers.

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By Sully,

Kevin Millar and Jason Varitek paced a ferocious Red Sox attack, as they defeated the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 14-4 last night. Devil Rays prospect Dewon Brazelton never stood a chance. He gave up 7 earned runs in just an inning and two-thirds. Derek Lowe on the other hand was pretty good. He left in the sixth inning with a large lead after his recurring blister nuisance once again reared its head.

Afternoon ball today at Fenway and Pedro is on the hill. Enjoy.

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By Jeff, 8/11/2004 5:41 pm

You all know that batting average isn’t very useful for the purposes of anaylzing baseball players. If you don’t know that, and that last statement made you angry, then I’m sorry, but you probably aren’t going to buy what the rest of what I’m writing today anyway, so go have a beer on me.

Ready.

Good.

Batting Average is basically boosted by singles. My reasoning behind thinking that is if you hear player A is batting .323 and player B is batting .285, then you don’t really know what kind of year they are having. You can probably guess though that player A has hit more singles.

I know that singles aren’t glamorous, and they are necissary pieces of offense. However, generally, teams with a lot of singles generally don’t score many runs. Teams with a lot of doubles, home runs, and walks do.

My friend Neil, a statistics grad, actually studied the issue, and he determined that singles have a weaker correlation with run scoring than walks do (.500 for singles, .591 for walks). I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it sounds like singles generally aren’t very significant compared to other ways to get on base. Yes I know you can’t score from second on a walk, but it doesn’t seem to matter.

Of course, Ichiro is the posterboy for singles. Because he hits singles at such a high rate (147 in 491 ab) his batting average is usually very high (.360 this season). And because of the high batting average, he posts a very good on base percentage (.401) and a good slugging percentage (.442).

Of course, if you look at an OPS line of 360/401/442, you think that Ichiro is having a good year. He is, but you don’t know more important things, like how much he’s walking and how much power he has in relation to other players.

That’s why I like to isolate the rates, as I call it.

Isolated discipline (sorry, but I can’t think of a better name) and it’s much more famous cousin, Isolated slugging, are those two rates, with batting average subtracted out. This tells you a players on base independant of hits (mostly singles) and a player’s power independent of the single-based bastards.

For the American League in 2004, you have a stat line of 270/336/432. That makes the two isolations are 066/162.

Here are the Red Sox:

           BA		OB		Slu		Iso d		Iso s	Bellhorn	0.256	16	0.373	7	0.432	11	0.117	1	0.176	9Burks	0.133	23	0.235	20	0.233	21	0.102	2	0.100	18Cabrera	0.211	20	0.231	21	0.368	18	0.020	20	0.157	12Crespo	0.165	22	0.165	23	0.215	22	0.000	21	0.050	21Damon	0.300	5	0.375	5	0.462	6	0.075	11	0.162	11Daubach	0.227	19	0.326	14	0.413	15	0.099	4	0.186	5Dominique	0.182	21	0.182	22	0.182	23	0.000	21	0.000	24Grcprr	0.321	1	0.367	8	0.500	4	0.046	16	0.179	8Guiterrez	0.308	3	0.308	17	0.385	17	0.000	21	0.077	20Kapler	0.290	7	0.325	15	0.435	10	0.035	18	0.145	15McCarty	0.246	17	0.320	16	0.388	16	0.074	12	0.142	17Mntkwcz	0.259	15	0.286	18	0.296	20	0.027	19	0.037	23Millar	0.298	6	0.377	4	0.448	9	0.079	8	0.150	14Mirabelli	0.281	10	0.361	9	0.573	3	0.080	7	0.292	3Mueller	0.265	14	0.342	12	0.432	11	0.077	9	0.167	10Nixon      0.273     13         0.345     11         0.424      14         0.072     7          0.151      13Ortiz	0.308	3	0.374	6	0.610	2	0.066	14	0.302	1Ramirez	0.317	2	0.406	1	0.611	1	0.089	6	0.294	2Reese	0.230	18	0.274	19	0.315	19	0.044	17	0.085	19Roberts	0.286	8	0.333	13	0.429	13	0.047	15	0.143	16Varitek	0.283	9	0.379	3	0.462	6	0.096	5	0.179	7Youkilis	0.280	11	0.382	2	0.460	8	0.102	2	0.180	6Pitchers	0.095	24	0.095	24	0.143	24	0.000	21	0.048	22

The number right next to the rate stat is the team rank. Happy parusing.

Derek Lowe vs Dewan Brazelton tonight. I’ve been more confident…