Wild Card and the Strength of Schedule
I really love that Sully has taken to doing a write up for many of the games. Not only does that task bore me, but it frees me up to other things, like play with numbers [/geek]
What I did was go and figure out the strength of each teams schedule currently in the playoff hunt. The method was to take the winning percentage of each team on the schedule (the Home WP if the team was home, Away if they were away), and multiplied by the amount of games left.
Then I summed that, and divided by the amount of total games, and got this:
BOS .514
ANA .514
OAK .465
TEX .495
NYY .466
Then what I did was use the log5 system in Bill James 81 Abstract and used the SOS and the current W% to figure out the records if things hold.
Nyy 101 -61 —
Bos 93-69 8 GB
Oak 95-67 —
Ana 93-69 2 GB
Tex 91-71 4 GB
Bos 93-69 —
Ana 93-69 —
Tex 91-71 2 GB
So…if everything holds up as it has been, it looks like the Yankees would play the Twins in the first round, and the Red Sox would play Oakland.
Unless the Sox lost the one game playoff…then it would be Yankees/Anaheim and Oakland/Minnesota.
Repeat of 2002 or 2003.