9/29/2004

Best Case Scenario

Filed under: — Sully @ 8:34 am

Since the Sox won, put a little pressure on the Yanks, the bullpen got some work (6 no-hit innings of work!) and Derek Lowe pitched himself out of the postseason rotation, I am not sure last night could have gone any better. Kevin Millar hit a two-run home run in the top of the 11th inning to lift the Red Sox to a 10-8 victory. Since we really have killed Kevin here in the past, let’s take a look at what he has done since July 1st and compare him to some names with a bit more cache. Month by month OPS…

Millar
July: 1.067
Aug: .862
Sep: .950

Manny
July: .951
Aug: 1.000
Sep: .941

Ortiz
July: 1.088
Aug: .898
Sep: .968

Vlad
July: .837
Aug: .916
Sep: .980

Sheffield
July: .970
Aug: 1.123
Sep: .771

Now, I am not drawing any conclusions here but I am just pointing out that, for about three months now, Kevin Millar has been every bit the hitter Manny, David Ortiz and Gary Sheffield have been and quite a bit better than everybody’s favorite Angel. If Kevin Millar keeps this up and Trot Nixon returns to form, the Red Sox will feature 4 900+ OPS types (Manny, Ortiz, Millar and Nixon), 4 800+ OPS types (Damon, Bellhorn, Mueller and Varitek) and…well…Orlando Cabrera.

Turning our attention to the division, the Red Sox now stand 2.5 games back of the Yanks. It remains unlikely that the Sox would catch the Bombers but with Johan Santana pitching today in the doubleheader’s opener, isn’t a sweep possible? And with Pedro going tonight, the Red Sox probably ought to win, no? So that would leave the Red Sox a game out with four to play for each club. The Sox play four in Baltimore while the Yanks wrap up the year in Toronto. And with Vazquez and Kevin Brown scheduled to go on the weekend, and yesterday’s rainout possibly necessitating some rotation shuffling (WOTS anybody?), let’s just say it’s possible. Monte Carlo suggests the chances are a bit under 7%.

Either way, since both the Yanks and Sox are in anyway, the real drama is taking place out west, where the NL Wild Card and AL West races are both in dead heats so be sure to check out some Cubs, Giants, A’s and Angels coverage.

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