For the third time, the Boston Red Sox will square off against the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. And for their fifth consecutive World Series appearance, the Sox find themselves confronted not with a Cinderella story or a team that slipped by with a fortunate LCS victory. Instead they are faced with another 100+ win juggernaut. Boston’s five World Series opponents since 1946 have averaged 104 wins.

This St. Louis team won 105 games and features a punishing lineup, solid starting pitching and a reliable bullpen. The two teams’ lineups are just about even while Boston appears to have the slight edge with respect to the hurlers.

St. Louis Hitting
OPS: .804
League OPS: .768
OPS+: 105

Boston Hitting
OPS: .832
League OPS: 792
OPS+: 105

St. Louis Pitching
ERA: 3.75
League ERA: 4.18
ERA+: 111

Boston Pitching
ERA: 4.18
League ERA: 4.87
ERA+: 117

It is important to note that St. Louis will probably not be hurt much by the DH rule. They will be able to start John Mabry, a veteran role player that has hit just about as well as Kevin Millar has this year. This comparison is apt because Millar, just as Mabry will when the Series shifts back to St. Louis, sits for the Sox as David Ortiz will play 1B when the DH is eliminated.

2004
Mabry: .296/.363/.504
Millar: .297/.383/.474

Boston’s lineup is more balanced than St. Louis’ but you could take your pick of Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen or Jim Edmonds, suit any one of them up for the Sox and any of the three would immediately become Boston’s best player. Conversely, you could take any of Damon, Bellhorn, Nixon, Varitek, Millar, or Mueller, put any of them on the Cards and they all would be better than anybody not batting in the 2-5 slots for St. Louis.

On the pitching side, Boston’s starters, especially with Chris Carpenter out, are considerably better than St. Louis’. The Game One matchup of Woody Williams and Tim Wakefield may be something of a mismatch but with St. Louis’ inexperience against Wake’s knuckler and Bronson Arroyo ready and able at the first sign of trouble, I am still confident. St. Louis’ starters in this series combined for a VORP of 103.3 this season. Boston’s, and remember they have replaced Arroyo with Lowe, have combined for a 122 VORP. That tally includes Derek Lowe’s -11.5 figure. Anybody think Lowe looked like an eleven-runs-below-replacement-level pitcher Wednesday night? The Sox have considerably better starters with Curt Schilling’s injury looming as the only factor that could potentially narrow the gap.

In the bullpen, I think they are pretty equal, although St. Louis is more able to go long should a starter run into trouble. Kiko Calero, Ray King and Julian Tavarez do a better job of turning it over to their relief ace than do Alan Embree, Mike Timlin and Curt Leskanic/Ramiro Mendoza. I think most would agree Keith Foulke is a better relief ace than Jason Isringhausen, albeit not by a whole lot.

From a tactical standpoint, I think the fact that the length of the ALCS games necessitated creative bench involvement for the Sox will serve Terry Francona well in the Series. Also, I think the emergence of Derek Lowe and the move of Bronson Arroyo to the bullpen will allow Francona to be more inclined to pinch hit for a pitcher in a big spot in St. Louis. Arroyo can bridge the gap until the Sox can turn it over to their more trusted guns later in a ballgame. If Francona manages his personnel as well as he did in the ALCS, it will go a long way to securing a Boston title. Across the diamond, Tony LaRussa is perhaps the most notorious micromanager in the history of baseball. He bunts, steals, hits-and-runs and works lefty-lefty and vice versa matchups. There is a real philosophy rift between the two clubs. Save Francona’s Game 4 brainfarts, the Sox generally play station to station with a real premium on outs. Sporting a .360 team OBP, it would be crazy to play any other way. But alas St. Louis does play it that other way. I thought Brenneman and Lyons were going to have to excuse themselves last night they were gushing so badly over St. Louis’ ability to play “small-ball”. But make no mistake. St. Louis wins because of these three guys:

Pujols: .331/.415/.657
Rolen: .314/.408/.598
Edmonds: .301/.418/.643

It will be a fascinating matchup between two supremely talented clubs with major differences in their views on both how that club ought to be assembled and how that club ought to go about trying to win ball games. I don’t care to make a prediction but I will say the Red Sox certainly have no reason to fear St. Louis. They are every bit as good and perhaps a bit better.

For superb Cardinals coverage, check out Brian Gunn’s Redbird Nation.