Quick Thought on Pedro
I saw something this weekend that quoted a baseball insider as saying that the Red Sox offer to Pedro blew the market out of the water. Often, statheads and SABR types will reference three-year splits or analyze other mechanisms than simply one’s stats from the previous season alone in order to determine a reasonable projection for the coming year. Major League GM’s do not agree with this thinking, apparently. There seems to be a consensus that thinks, because Pedro had a pedestrian-for-Pedro 3.90 ERA in 2004, that he has entered into a phase wherein he is on his way to ineffectiveness. The very real flip-side to this is that 2004 may have been an outlier, down year and that he could be right back to hall-of-fame form come next April. But hey, if signing Pedro is a breeze because the rest of MLB has no interest in a guy that has a 2.84 ERA and has averaged over 200 innings since 2002, that’s fine with me.