In the comments section, there has been some spirited debate lately, and a Reds fan, of all teams, posted something pretty salient. Enough so, that here it is:

In the first post of the section, from Jon: I also find it interesting that Yankee fans seem distressed that they didn’t sign Beltran.

RobinRed’s response:
Well, I have said this already on other blogs but:

2004 VORP:

Beltran 74
Williams 31

Beltran was worth 30.7 in 309 PA with KC–Williams was worth that in 651 PA.

Beltran is probably not a truly great hitter, but he:

–has a broad base of skills so is likely to age well
–is durable
–is in his prime
–plays a position the Yankees need filled
–is one of the greatest percentage base-stealers in baseball history

I think he would be worth 4-5 games to the Yankees, would make them tougher in the 2005 post-season, and would help them in the 2006-2011 window as well.

Not getting him was a major mistake by Steinbrenner and good news for Boston fans.

BIll James, writing about the late 80s Yankees, said the”early (and largely successful) Steinbrenner” strategy with FAs was to get the best guy available, regardless of need–like getting Gossage after Sparky Lyle had just won the Cy Young. Overpaying and over-committing to mediocre or inconsistent players based on perceived need is the way to make big mistakes on the market. I am not as convinced as some are the Wright and Pavano signings will not work out, since both guys are talented, but the Yankees are not loading the odds in their favor with them. The Red Sox, by contrast, have a slightly better and cheaper bet in Clement (as opposed to Pavano) and a much cheaper and somewhat better bet in Miller (as opposed to Wright).

I personally don’t like using VORP for the whole stat ownership thing I talked about in a previous post, but I agree with red’s central thought.

Good, great stuff.

Comments are closed