Boys n’ girls, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections are out. If you aren’t a subscriber, I’ll give you a little sneek peak but really, if you’re reading this site you ought to be a subscriber over at BP.

It’s tough to really put my finger on why these get me excited but PECOTA always inspires some reaction, be it bewilderment, affirmation, excitement or anger. I thought I might present the Sox and Yanks’ respective lineups and rotations. A few caveats: I am listing the 9 players I expect to receive the most playing time for each club. In this department, the Yankees have a small edge in projected VORP, due to relatively few at-bats forecast for Trot, Mueller and Millar. The Yankees also have some at bats to fill in from their bench. It is because of this that, despite the Yanks’ apparent offensive edge, I am not that worried. Whereas the Sox will fill in injury, platoon, off-day and late-inning at-bats with Jay Payton, Doug Mirabelli, Kevin Youkilis and Ramon Vazquez, the Yanks will do so with Rey Sanchez, John Flaherty, Bubba Crosby and gosh I dunno, Doug Glanville? Without further ado…

New York Yankees
Player VORP
Rodriguez: 60.3
Sheffield: 49.9
Jeter: 46.6
Posada: 39.5
Matsui: 33.8
Williams: 27.9
Giambi: 26.5
Martinez: 15.8
Womack: 5.6
Total 305.9

Boston Red Sox
Player VORP
Ramirez: 55.5
Ortiz: 46.9
Renteria: 37.7
Damon: 33.8
Bellhorn: 31.8
Varitek: 27.8
Nixon: 20.5
Millar: 18.9
Mueller: 18.6
Total: 291.5

I would say Trot, Millar and Mueller have ridiculously low projections due in large part to PECOTA low-balling their playing time. Still, what sticks out is that the Yanks still have one hell of a formidable lineup. With more competence from management this past off-season, the Bombers’ lineup could have been a total wagon. Replace Bernie with Beltran and Womack with Polanco and the lineup’s bananas. Instead, they’ll settle for being a perfectly fine 875-run club.

On the pitching side, there isn’t much need for explanation. PECOTA projects what it projects.

New York Yankees
Player VORP
Johnson: 64.6
Mussina: 31.5
Brown: 24.7
Pavano: 21.3
Wright: 16.5
Sturtze: 6.0
Total: 164.6

Boston Red Sox
Player VORP
Schilling: 56.0
Clement: 38.6
Arroyo: 31.4
Wake: 24.4
Miller: 20.2
Wells: 15.6
Total: 186.2

As you might expect, the Sox have a slight edge as PECOTA hates Wright and Pavano.

The two teams look even, though Boston appears to have a clear depth advantage. As the season draws closer, more in-depth analyses will come but for now, pony up for a BP subscription and enjoy PECOTA!