For the first time in over two months, Chris Kahrl’s Transaction Analysis (subscription needed) appeared over at Baseball Prospectus yesterday. Kahrl is a skilled analyst and a brilliant wordsmith. Yesterday, she focused on the off-seasons for teams in both the American and National League East Divisions. I will excerpt some of the highlights from the American League East and offer some comments of my own.

Baltimore Orioles

Kahrl Says: Now, the problem with the third point (ed: that the outfield sucks and they needed to address it), as Joe Sheehan has already pointed out so well, is that they didn’t acquire Sammy!, they got this Sosa character. They’re expecting the former.

But are the Orioles really expecting the .700 slugger? Wouldn’t something producing somewhere between poop and below average be an upgrade for the O’s out there? Didn’t they have cash to blow? Weren’t they snubbed by free agent after free agent – in other words, didn’t they try? Didn’t they part with decidedly unspectacular wares? I still fail to recognize any downside here for Baltimore and I see them hanging around the East for a while this season.

Boston Red Sox

Kahrl says: In the great shortstop derby, the Sox were players, but for the expense, they may have merely placed and not won.

Well put. Renteria is pretty good and the Sox are rich and so it is not like there is a huge risk that Renteria will drain the franchise – certainly not this year or next at least. But as Kahrl goes on to note, there are serious questions about just how good his defense is, he’s under-whelming at the plate against righties and there seems to be little doubt his 2003 was quite an outlier. Right team for Renteria though, as the Sox will not pay as dearly as some other teams would have had they tossed 15%-20% of their payroll at him.

Kahrl says: The really sweet move was the Roberts deal…

Agreed.

New York Yankees

Kahrl Says: …If you had ever had a good season on this planet, the Yankees were going to get you and spit you out. Of course, they did get Dave Righetti from the Rangers during that same stretch, so it wasn’t all bleak, but let’s face it, Tanyon Sturtze is no Dave Righetti. Hell, he may not even be Doug Bird.

I think my feelings on the Yankees’ off-season are pretty apparent. I think they laid an enormous egg. Not that they didn’t collect any talent – they did. But if there was an approach, a methodical strategy, it was lost on me. Pavano and Wright are coming off outlier seasons, Beltran made more sense than the Unit, Tony Womack is, well, Tony Womack. And Tino?

I had to look up who Doug Bird was. His stats don’t seem to warrant Kahrl’s biting sarcasm but maybe there is something I don’t know about him. If readers want to clue me in as to why Bird would make such a good punch line, let me know. I’d love to get a few of Kahrl’s jokes from time to time.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Kahrl Says: Let’s face it, anybody who feels 70 wins is something to brag about is somebody who hasn’t really earned a brag yet, especially when there’s no guarantee you can do it again.

Another dubious off-season for the Devil Rays. What’s Kahrl supposed to say, “Roberto Alomar’s the answer”?

Toronto Blue Jays

Kahrl Says: These are the moves of a team crafting what I’d call a contingent season, where you go into it knowing you won’t win, so you spend the winter talking about “sending a message,” when what you’re really doing is assembling a team you can either build up from if you get lucky, or tear down quickly and chalk up as another hash mark in a lengthy rebuild.

See here I think she is giving the Jays a little too much credit because for the life of me, I don’t see any sort of plan in place – longterm or otherwise. Corey Koskie and Scott Schoeneweis are each something and combined they are even a little more but what they most definitely are not are cornerstones of an American League East championship baseball team’s off-season. So what are the Jays trying to do? There are the type of low-risk moves hidden amongst JP’s off-season that demonstrate the guy may still have it. Certainly Zaun is a nice guy to have around and prying Gaudin from the Rays was nifty as well. Heck I don’t even mind giving Billy Koch a shot. But just when you think he is playing with the analytical big boys, JP goes and trades for Shea Hillenbrand. And to be his Designated Hitter, no less! Now, a league average DH hit .263/.344/.445 in 2004. Hillenbrand, in his four MLB seasons, has a line of .288/.322/.448 and has toiled in two of the darn run-happiest parks the Bigs have to offer. Flipping anything of value for a track record like that will go a long way stripping you of any analytical cred you may have earned on your way up. We’ll see what the Jays will be able to do with more payroll in the coming years I guess but so far, Ricciardi has failed to impress.

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