The 2005 Pen – Mightier or Not?
Chris Snow, who has acquitted himself nicely to the Globe’s Sports section over the last couple of months, features a bit on the Red Sox bullpen today. This piece wasn’t exactly of the same quality as his previous work. In it he has some quotes from both Keith Foulke and Terry Francona, who share each other’s optimism for the 2005 bullpen. Apparently the conversations made Snow go all fanboy on us…
But, said Foulke yesterday, “I think we might have a better staff than we did last year.”
As a rotation, that premise is debatable. Last year’s rotation (Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Arroyo, and Wakefield) posted a 4.24 ERA. The six candidates for this year’s rotation (Schilling, Wade Miller, David Wells, Matt Clement, Arroyo, and Wakefield) posted a 3.84 ERA.
As a bullpen, it’s undebatable. Out went the 35-year-old Myers (4.40 career ERA) and 36-year-old Leskanic (4.36). In came Matt Mantei (3.86) and John Halama (4.52).
First of all, both matters are debatable. But if one is undebatable, given the data that Snow presents, I am not sure how you arrive at the conclusion that the bullpen’s improvement is undebatable – and that’s before you consider just how shoddy his analysis is. The new starters outpitched the old ones by a greater margin than the new relievers outpitched the old relievers if I am reading Snow’s evidence correctly. But that’s beside the point and just how poor this analysis is demands a little breakdown. No mention of Williamson? Ramiro Mendoza? No mention of the fact that Mantei has pitched all of 99 innings over the last 4 seasons?
Here’s what the Red Sox have to replace: 102 innings of 3.00 ERA pitching contributed between Scott Williamson, Ramiro Mendoza, Curtis Leskanic and Mike Myers. Further, Foulke, Embree and Timlin will all age another season beyond their theoretical peaks. Timlin will be 39, Embree is 35 and Foulke 32. In addition to trying to determine where those 102 innings will come from in 2005, simple age regression would have to be factored into any sober analysis of this bullpen. Now, if everyone on the starting staff is healthy and Wakefield or Arroyo end up in the pen and BK’s arm is fresh and Mantei is somehow healthy again, yeah, maybe the Sox have a chance of outpitching last year’s pen. Bus as I see it, the questions far outweigh the answers. The Red Sox lost four veteran arms that all contributed solid work in 2004. Let me present two scenarios, starting with the good.
The depth will be great with everyone healthy. They will have the sixth starter plus John Halama and BK to go long. Mantei (again, if healthy) Timlin, Embree and Foulke will share the high leverage duties. There won’t be a bad pitcher in the lot and because of the durable arms at the back end of the pen, quality arms should be fresh all season long. The only matter that will cause any concern whatsoever will be whether to carry 11 or 12 pitchers, a nice concern to have given the quality of the starting staff and the aforementioned 7 relievers.
And now the bad…
Injury risks abound for this Red Sox pitching staff and it’s hard to see how they are going to plug some of the inevitable holes. It looks doubtful that either Curt Schilling or Wade Miller will be able to start the year in the rotation, bumping both Arroyo and Wakefield up and also slotting John Halama in the rotation. Byung Hyun Kim and his 80 MPH fastball will be the long man in the pen. Matt Mantei will be lucky to pitch 15 innings this year. Have you seen Anastacio Martinez pitch lately? Our replacement level southpaw twins, Lenny Dinardo and Mark Malaska, will be heavily relied upon and who knows what you’re getting out of the late-30′s duo of Embree and Timlin. Foulke at the back end is nice but how are you going to get to him?
The only point that I wish to make is that whether or not the bullpen has improved is most certainly a debatable issue. To ignore the multitude of injury risks given both the age and medical histories of the players in question is at best ignorant and at worst disingenuous. I am not throwing in the towel on the guy because I really have enjoyed his work thus far so I guess Snow gets a mulligan on this one.
