I had a great time last night talking baseball with SoSH stalwarts Eric Van, Napkin, Portland Sox Fan, NotMannysFault, Paul M and many others. Great Bay was elegant, getting my picture taken with the trophy was a thrill and there were two ice sculptures - one that spelled out SoSH and one that was in the shape of the Red Sox logo (the socks, not the B).

It’s funny because everyone was trying to be as tempered as possible but the feeling that the Red Sox may very well have just entered into a prolonged era of excellence emanated. The farm system is strengthening, revenues are growing and information and analyses are coming in from remarkably smart and open-minded individuals. It’s the first point that makes the future for the Red Sox so compelling. If some of the Sox playing in Portland and Pawtucket this year continue to develop, it would seem possible that by 2007 Boston could be getting solid contributions for the minimum salary from 4 or 5 players. Between Lester, Papelbon, Lester, Ramirez, Pedroia, Bladergroen, Moss and West, the Sox have a real Farm system now. What’s more, the Red Sox will have six of the first sixty picks in the 2005 Amateur Draft.

The byproduct of having the ability to count on cheap production year after year is that you can make a run at every off-season’s star. Over-paying for truly great players won’t kill you but over-paying for average to merely good players will because those are the players that can easily be replaced by a good youngster on the cheap. Ben Broussard is a much better player than Darrin Erstad, just as Mark Bellhorn is close to the player Jose Vidro is, despite discrepancies in the players’ respective wallets. I would contend that the most essential part of compiling a Major League roster is the ability to conceptualize replacement level. There is no need to dole out cash to Tony Womack because nearly every organization could pluck a comparable player from their triple-A club. Same goes for Cristian Guzman and Juan Castro.

But getting such contributions is easier said than done. You must have a farm system producing players capable of being an asset on a Big League club. If you need a second baseman and there is nothing in your farm system to fill the hole, you must then go out on the market. But if there are no great players available or you do not have the resources to commit to a great player, you tend to end up competing with other teams for an unremarkable player. The competition or demand for the player will drive his price up and next thing you know you’re sitting at a press conference trying to pretend you’re thrilled to have agreed to hand out $33 million to Russ Ortiz. The Red Sox have been able to largely avoid these pitfalls by successfully identifying market inefficiencies, where certain players were not being valued in a manner that was commensurate with their ability to contribute to a winning baseball team. But now, player development will be as important as ever because as acceptance of SABR principles spreads, the Bill Muellers, Mark Bellhorns and David Ortiz’s will no longer be available on the cheap. The values will have to come from within. The luxury of being able to steer clear of throwing a bunch of cash at a good player like Corey Koskie enables you to pursue a truly great player.

The Red Sox are on the verge of entering into a real sweet spot. A minor league system annually producing good players combined with a large payroll and an analytical front office able to find good values on both the trade and free agent markets make the prospect of a Red Sox dynasty not seem all that far-fetched.