Philadelphia Phillies
2004: 86-76, 2nd in the NL East

Projected Lineup:
CF Kenny Lofton
SS Jimmy Rollins
RF Bobby Abreu
1B Jim Thome
LF Pat Burrell
C Mike Leiberthal
2B Chase Utley
3B David Bell

Projected Rotation:
John Leiber
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Cory Lidle
Brett Myers

Closer:
Billy Wagner

Outlook:
The Phillies are run by a bunch of pricks. Or at least they were previous to the beginning of this season. While I’m sure Ed Wade is a nice enough fellow, field manager Larry Bowa was a classic red ass, and Dallas Green is perhaps one of the more reprehensible member of any baseball Ops team, unless you think that he was justified in questioning Scott Rolen’s manhood and leadership ability. In the two years after that trade, the Cardinals have been NL champions and the Philles have won 86 games each year, having David Bell as the third baseman. At least Green has his record of developing Generation K to lean back on…

Anyway, as Bob Dylan once warbled “egjowret wshgoiwnerowqihfdf sniwqhe”. That’s right, the times, they are a-changin’. Gone is Larry Bowa and his complete insanity, replaced by Mild-Mannered Charlie Manuel, known as the non-Hispanic looking Manuel in the AL Central in 2000. For the first offseason since he came back to Philly, Green has kept the ass attached to his face shut, as Ed Wade has been allowed to do his job in relative peace. Keeping with his tradition of acquiring as many 2/3 starters as possible, John Lieber was signed. Bucking his previous traditions, rather than giving someone like Steve Kline a 4 year/ $18 million contract, Wade has seemed content in just handing bullpen spots to young, live arms, like Ryan Madison, and Gavin Floyd. Heck, he even traded Felix Rodriguez to the Yankees for Kenny Lofton, presumably because they wanted that all-important 3rd centerfielder. Because God has a sense of humor, or perhaps because Kenny Lofton does, Lofton has neither played much, nor been silent this spring.

The Phillies rotation was stabilized this offseason, going from mediocre to stabley mediocre. John Leiber was the most effective pitcher on the Yankees staff last year, and he’s been penciled in at the top of the rotation. Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla round out the top three, and while they have been effective in the past, they have the same affliction as Leiber does. All three men have missed time due to arm ailments in the past year. That, of course, doesn’t bode will for the City of Brotherly Love, unless you live there and are a Braves fan or something.

Wolf has struggled with an elbow problem the last two seasons, after starting out very good in 2003. His 136.7 innings pitched in 2004 was the lowest since he was a rookie under Terry Francona in 1999. Padilla has a balky elbow too, and might require extra rest in order to be healthy. His inning numbers were his three-year-as-a-starter low as well. Leiber, as you know, is in his 2nd year coming off Tommy John surgery. He’s a better bet to stay healthy than Padilla or Wolf, but his mechanics put an awful lot of strain on his elbow. If there was a gun to my head, I would say Leiber would break down before the contract is over, but he should be fine for 2005.

At the back end of the rotation, Cory Lidle is still cashing in on his two good seasons in Oakland and his ability to propel a baseball somewhere near the homeplate area, and look back quicky without suffering whiplash. Brett Myers is an interesting case because he’s still young enough to have some upside (turned 24 in August) but he hasn’t yet reached the lofted “league average” status. He started out in the majors when he was 21, so he might put it all together, by striking out more guys, walking a handful less, and somehow keeping the ball in the ballpark, and turn into a top of the rotation guy. Or he might battle Cory Lidle for “Guy not replaced by Gavin Floyd in the rotation”. Myers might need a change of scenery, be it ball park or city.

The bullpen is a cast of various free agents of various skill levels (Cormier, Worrell, Terry Adams), and young guys the Phillies grew (Ryan Madison and Gavin Floyd). They are also held in the back by Billy Wagner, a gentleman that stands at 5’10” and throws somewhere in the low-300’s. He’s also coming off a season where he injured his groin and shoulder, neither which injury is good for someone who throws as hard as he does. Worrell provides good enough insurance for Wagner so that the bullpen shouldn’t take any major hits if someone goes down. Wade hasn’t yet met his bullpen utopia, but he might have one of the better ones in his tenure.

The Phillies locked up Mike Leiberthal a few years ago to catch for them going into the middle of the decade. Then he promptly tore his knee up. Immediately after trading for him in my fantasy league…quite literally the next day. He profiles as a second tier catcher, amongst the 5 or 6 that are 32-33 and starting everyday in the majors. He was essentially league average last year, and will probably continue to be league average until his career enters it’s death spasms. Sitting behind him as always is Garth Pratt. Party on Mike.

At first is Jim Thome, who was loudly praised by national media types as being the center of the Phillie lineup, despite quietly having a worse year than Bobby Abreu. You know what you will get with Thome, someone who kicks ass, takes names, and is one of the nicest guys in baseball, reportedly. Across from him is either Placido Polonco or David Bell, depending on Manuel’s fancy. Bell’s veteran leadership, and clubhouse presence will probably win out over Polonco’s superior ability to play baseball. Funny sport sometimes.

Jimmy Rollins continues to flash leather, and grab some bases, but in 2004 he did a few things different. The first was that he cut his strikeouts by 40, and he became the base stealer he was when he was but a young pup in 2001. He also hit for significant power for the first time in his major league stint. Rollins might have finally turned the corner into being one of the better shortstops in baseball. His keystone compadre seems to be Chase Utley, who has seemingly been a star in the making for his whole pro career. In the Majors, he’s shown some good pop, and no ability to get on base. I don’t know if this is true or not, but it might be interesting to see what skills players flash when they are promoted from utility guy to starter. Fun Utley fact…he’s three weeks younger than Rollins.

Bobby Abreu is a Hall of Famer in the making. Since he became a regular, he’s had 1 year with a BA below .300, 1 year with an on-base below .400, and 2 years with a sub-.500 slugging. He’s become a high-percentage base stealer, going 40/45 last year, he walks 100 times a year, hits bushels of doubles, and smaller bushels of home runs. He doesn’t ground into many double plays. His outfield play is goodish, I suppose. Basically, he’s the most underrated player in the game, which means soon he will be overrated because of people paying attention saying how underrated he is.

Quickley, Pat Burrell is running out of time to become the star he should be. Kenny Lofton, Marlon Byrd, and Jason Michaels make up one pretty good ballplayer.

Even more quickly, Larry Bowa is gone, and Charlie Manuel is the manager. The Phillies should win 90 game, but they will win 86 for the third straight year.

Prediction: 86-76

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Gavin Floyd RHP
2. Michael Bourn OF
3. Ryan Howard 1B
4. Cole Hammels LHP
5. Greg Golson OF
6. Jake Blalock OF
7. J.A. Happ LHP
8. Scott Mitchenson RHP
9. Nate Cabrera RHP
10. Scott Mathieson RHP

Check out this piece from Sports Pickle.

I enjoy that Curt Schilling pitches for the Red Sox but I can’t say his insistence on chiming in on anything and everything isn’t at least a tad irritating.

I would have no problem listening to a cogent argument contending that the Yankees have better pitching than the Red Sox. I think it is a difficult position to argue conclusively but I do believe there is an argument there. The Yanks added three pitchers, who, if they repeat their respective 2004 performances, will clearly push the Yanks past the Sox in the arms race. The problem of course is that one of these pitchers is 41 and the other two had career years in 2004 that they are unlikely to repeat in 2005.

Well this doesn’t stop Mazz from beating you over the head, accusing you of falling victim to blind faith and reminding you that the Yankees have better pitching than the Red Sox. Of course he doesn’t try to actually make the case. He just repeats it and writes one-sentence paragraphs (also known as Plaschkes) for emphasis.

Without further ado…

Torre believes he has the best pitching staff he has ever managed. And deep down, you can bet that he rests comfortably armed with additional knowledge, too.

Two things. First, no matter what Joe Torre believes, this is not the best pitching staff he has ever managed. Every Yankees team Torre had managed up until 2004 featured a better staff than this one, and I think the 1983 Atlanta Braves were probably better too. Second, I have no idea what the second sentence there means. Frankly, I find it hilarious the more times I read it. “And deep down, you can bet that he rests comfortably armed with additional knowledge, too.” It’s just so damn stupid I can’t stop smiling.

His New York Yankees have better pitching than the Red Sox.

An opinion? No, no, no. That’s a fact. Many Boston sports followers are still inhaling the fumes from the outbreak of local championships, and they’re so high now that they cannot see straight. That has been the annoying side effect in this golden era of Bill Belichick and Theo Epstein, two leaders who have cultivated such blind faith that nobody bothers to question them anymore.

That is not good.

That is never good.

First of all, that’s an opinion, not a fact. I made the case, before the Sox acquired Wade Miller even, that the Yanks were making too much of a bet on 2004 in their starting pitching acquisitions. After laying out the case by showing both three-year average VORP numbers and 2004 VORP figures as well, I wrote…

Obviously, this all comes down to whether or not the Yankees were right to bet on career years from both Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. If the two have established new performance levels, the Yankees undoubtedly will have the better staff. If the two revert back to their previous performance levels or split the difference between 2004 and previous seasons as I think they will, the Red Sox will probably have the better rotation. I am not going to issue any sort of prediction right now as I still don’t know whose is the better rotation. I do know, however, that this offseason has been a very good one so far for the Red Sox and attempts by local media hacks to pass it off as anything else should be passed over in favor of more reasoned and well thought-out work.

Here’s the link to that December post.

As for the throwaway groupthink line, I think plenty of people have been critical of Theo, appropriately or not. I hated the Nomar trade and stated as much. Many hated the Kim trade and subsequent extension. Those are just two examples but besides, wouldn’t it stand to reason that after a spate of success, one earns a certain amount of credibility? Seems perfectly logical to me.

Now the Yankees have Randy Johnson and the Red Sox no longer have Pedro Martinez [stats, news], and what more do you really need to know? Johnson has won five Cy Young Awards and Martinez has won three, and there is not another starting pitcher on either staff that has won the Cy even once, including Schilling.

What more do you need to know? For starters, it would help to know that the Pedro Martinez the Sox will look to replace posted a 3.90 ERA in 2004. It’s more than a little disingenuous, in a piece comparing 2004 to 2005’s prospects, to reel off Pedro’s resume as if the Sox are charged with replacing the greatest pitcher in the history of baseball. They have a good pitcher to replace, but not a demigod.

Despite the apparent pitching disparity, there has been little talk of what valuable ground the Red Sox lost to the Yankees during the offseason. The Yankees’ staff got better and younger, and the Red Sox’ staff got . . . what? David Wells will be 42 in May. Wade Miller is rehabilitating from a shoulder injury. Matt Clement ended up here, in large part, because the Red Sox missed out on Brad Radke, Tim Hudson, Martinez and even Carl Pavano.

There’s been little talk because the Sox haven’t lost any ground. Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright literally may be the two clearest regression candidates of any pitchers in Major League Baseball. Matt Clement is better than both of them. And just so I am clear, Randy Johnson overwhelmingly tips the balance of power in the Yankees’s favor but David Wells is a poor acquisition because of his age? Please. Wade Miller is Boston’s sixth starter. To whom do the Yanks turn, Tony, when one of their pitchers inevitably goes down? Tanyon Sturtze?

Clement’s best season is nothing close to what even Derek Lowe has done.

The worst line of the piece. Please, Tony, elaborate. Is Derek Lowe a better pitcher than Matt Clement? Are wins still the best way to evaluate a pitcher? Is the earth flat? What a hack.

But really, can we honestly say that the Red Sox today are a better baseball team than they were in October - or even at this time last year?

Sure. Healthy Nixon, deep pitching staff, better bench. Why not? In Lowe and Pedro, the Red Sox have to replace 400 innings of 4.59 ERA pitching. Sound like too tall a task to you? They have replaced Gabe Kapler with Jay Payton, Pokey Reese with Ramon Vazquez and their weakest 2004 position (Pomar Cabrera) with Edgar Renteria. So yeah, they are a better baseball team.

For all of Schilling’s glorious achievements, he still has not carried a team without Johnson or Martinez at his side, something that makes him baseball’s version of Bill Parcells.

Schilling doesn’t have to carry this team. He just has to pitch well.

Between now and October, of course, a great deal can change.

But if we’re talking about the Red Sox and Yankees since late October 2004, New York has made up substantial ground.

And then some.

Crappy, hacktastic stuff.

And then some.

Here’s the story from the Denver Post. I don’t see what the harm would be in keeping Kim around if Boston is going to pay his way in Colorado anyway. Oh well. Here’s hoping the Boston media doesn’t rejoice, gloat and assail his character as they do with every other player that leaves town unceremoniously.

Sigh.

St. Louis Cardinals
2004: 105-57 1st in the NL Central, defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers (3-1) in the NLDS, defeated the Houston Astros (4-3) in the NLCS, lost to the Boston Red Sox (4-0) in the World Series

Projected Lineup:
SS David Eckstein
RF Larry Walker
1B Albert Pujols
3B Scott Rolen
CF Jim Edmonds
LF Reggie Sanders
2B Mark Grudzielanek
C Yadier Molina

Projected Rotation:
Mark Mulder
Matt Morris
Chris Carpenter
Jason Marquis
Jeff Suppan

Projected Closer:
Jason Isringhausen

Outlook:
Unfortunately for Cards fans, after storming through the regular season with the best record in baseball, and then out gunning both the Dodgers and Astros in the postseason, the Redbirds had the unfortunate fate of playing the victim in the Red Sox storybook run to the World Championship. It was not a fitting fate for a team that was far and away the best in baseball and also one of the most well-built teams in recent history. With a mix of homegrown players, smart free agent signings, and a couple of well-placed trades, GM Walt Jocketty built himself a team that was able to overcome age and manager Tony LaRussa’s obsessive-compulsive disorder that requires him to constantly change pitchers and figure out ways to use his roster less than optimally.

Jocketty was left with some major offseason decisions. The middle infielders, SS Edgar Renteria and 2B Tony Womack, were both free agents. “Veteran leader” and sometimes catcher Mike Matheny was also ready to walk. In many cities, a GM would bend over backwards to keep together a team that had just won 105 games. Jocketty, however, let Renteria sign in Boston for $40 million and replaced him with David Eckstein, recently departed from Anaheim. This sounds like a pretty poor move, and it is definitely a step down from Renteria to Eckstein, but not nearly as large a step down as people might think. Renteria has been fantastic against lefties, but has struggled against right-handers, putting up a .296/.340/.411 line over the past 3 years. Eckstein, signed for a good bit less than Renteria, has put up a .273/.340/.337 line over that same period of time. In other words, neither of them hits righties very well, but Eckstein should get on base just as much as Renteria did. Batting in front of the top foursome in baseball, that should be enough to keep the Cardinals moving offensively. 2B Tony Womack, coming off a career year in which he had a grand OPS+ of 93, was snapped up by the Yankees. Jocketty replaced him with Mark Grudzielanek, coming over from the rival Cubs. Grudzielanek and Womack are the same age (i.e. old), but Grudzielanek should be an offensive upgrade over Womack. Defensively, well, defensively the middle infield should be a train wreck. But at least that’s entertaining.

The rest of the lineup stays relatively unchanged from last season. The outfield of Sanders, Edmonds, and Walker is probably the best offensive outfield in baseball. It also now competes with the Giants for the most ancient outfield in baseball, as St. Louis is probably the only place that 35 year old Jim Edmonds would be the baby of the group. The age factor has to come into play at some point. I see no reason to that it will happen in 2005, but player production often drops off a cliff as players age, so it’s something that bears watching (especially since Reggie Sanders’ production has already started to tail off). The infield corners are manned by Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols. Both are probably the best players at their positions in the NL, and arguably, in baseball (not arguably for Pujols—he is the best). Rolen’s a good bet to regress a tiny bit in 2005, but he should still be the best 3B in the NL. Pujols is your odds on favorite to win the NL MVP with Bonds sidelined indefinitely. He’s also your odds on favorite to win the “Subject of the Best ESPN Sportscenter Commercial” ESPY at the next ESPY Awards. The third of the Flying Molina Brothers, Yadier, steps into the full time job as catcher. You might remember him as the guy yelling at Manny Ramirez during the World Series. He’s should be an upgrade over Mike Matheny, who flat out sucks.

Tony LaRussa is known well for using his bench prolifically, but he doesn’t have much to work with. Hector Luna is the utility infielder, with John Mabry backing up 1B and the OF. Roger Cedeno and That’s So Taguchi will be used to keep Walker and Sanders fresh. As a Cardinals fan, you have to hope that the injury fairy doesn’t come to visit St. Louis, as any significant injury is going to hurt badly. There’s simply no depth here.

The Cards’ biggest offseason move was the acquisition of Mark Mulder. Jocketty sent top prospect Daric Barton, young starter Dan Haren, and reliever Kiko Calero to the As to get Mulder. Pundits have often claimed that the Cardinals lacked a true #1 starter, with Matt Morris being more of a #2. The pundits will now shut up, but all may not be well. Mulder is a huge injury risk and saw his K/9 and K/BB ratios slip in 2004. If he can bounce back to his 2000-2003 levels, Mulder will be a very good pitcher in the NL. If not, I’d look for Harold Reynolds or John Kruk to start complaining about the Cards not having an ace around June. Matt Morris is coming off the worst season of his career, but if he’s healthy again, should return to his previous level as a solid, if unspectacular, starter. Chris Carpenter and Jason Marquis both had very good campaigns last year. Marquis finally started to payoff on some of that promise he showed in Atlanta, while Carpenter came back from missing all of 2003 (and much of 2002), pitching just like he did in Toronto 3 years ago. Jeff Suppan eats inning. It’s possible he eats children as well.

The bullpen is lead by Jason Isringhausen, recently signed to an extension. His story is well known by now (bust prospect reinvented) and he’s established himself as a solid closer. The rest of the pen is likewise solid and actually a bit less specialized than you’d expect out of a Tony LaRussa team. Ray King and Julian Tavarez are both very good relievers. Al Reyes and Cal Eldred are a bit more questionable, but certainly aren’t bad for your second tier of relievers. Mike Lincoln and Randy Flores are your third tier of guys—fungible arms at the end of the pen. The final guy in the pen might be prospect Carmen Cali, a lefty who put up stellar numbers in AA last year (47 Ks and 19 BBs in 46 IP).

The 2004 Cardinals scored a lot of runs. There’s no evidence that the 2005 Cardinals won’t due the same, especially playing a majority of their games against the mediocre competition in the NL Central. You think the Big 4 aren’t salivating at the thought of facing Eric Milton? The starting pitching should be improved over 2004, with Mark Mulder replacing Woody Williams, and the rest of the staff pretty much unchanged.

The only thing that can stop the Cardinals from winning the NL Central and being the favorite to win the NL is Father Time. He’s approaching, and approaching fast, but I think he’s probably a year off.

Prediction: 97-65

Top 10 Prospects:
1.Anthony Reyes RHP
2.Chris Lambert RHP
3.Adam Wainwright RHP
4.Brad Thompson RHP
5.Stuart Pomeranz RHP
6.Carmen Cali LHP
7.Blake Hawksworth RHP
8.Cody Haerther OF
9.Chris Duncan 1B
10.Brennan Ryan SS

Story.

Cool by me.

- Will Carroll has his Boston Red Sox Team Health Report up over at Baseball Prospectus. These aren’t really my bag, as it just seems like a lot of educated guesswork. If you’re old and have had injury problems in the past, you get a red light. If you are old but have a healthy track record or not old and have had an injury or two, you get a yellow light. If you don’t really have an injury track record and you are pretty fit, you get a green light. Maybe it’s just over my head…

- Only a matter of time I suppose but Jay Jaffe has the innaugural version of the Baseball Prospectus power rankings, an item called Prospectus Hit List. The Sox hold down the top spot.

- David Wells got roughed up yesterday by the Phills. I am not worried about next Sunday night, though.

I hear he likes it in the Bronx.

Atlanta Braves
2004: 96-66, 1st place NL East, lost NLDS to Houston (3-2)

Projected line-up:
Rafael Furcal SS
Marcus Giles 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Andruw Jones CF
Johnny Estrada C
Raul Mondesi RF
Adam LaRoche 1B
Brian Jordan LF

Starting Rotation:
Tim Hudson
John Smoltz
Mike Hampton
John Thomson
Horacio Ramirez

Closer:
Dan Kolb

Outlook:
The last time the Braves finished worse than first in their division, the author of this preview had not even entered first grade. The Braves look to continue their decade of dominance in the National League East, and most likely will face their toughest challenge in 2005. The Braves face a retooling season and are once against faced with the same questions surrounding them that have been asked for the past few seasons. Will this be the year the streak ends and another team finishes the year atop the NL East standings? The offseason was difficult for the Braves, who for some unknown reason failed to offer JD Drew arbitration, and lost starting pitchers Russ Ortiz to Arizona, Jaret Wright to New York, and Paul Byrd to Anaheim. John Schuerholz knew the pitching had to be addressed and acquired ace right-hander Tim Hudson from Atlanta for Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz and Dan Meyer. He then traded relief prospect Jose Capellan to Milwaukee for closer Dan Kolb, clearing the way for a return to the rotation for John Smoltz. The 2005 Braves have a lot of question marks, but this is nothing new for a franchise that has seen the departure of future Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux in the past two seasons.

Batting:
Setting the table for the Braves will be the speedy Rafael Furcal who not only possesses one of the strongest throwing arms in the Majors at shortstop, but can hit for average and cause havoc on the basepaths. And although there is no designated hitter in the National League, an area of concern for the Bravos will be assigning a designated driver for Furcal whose DUI charge had him servin’ hard time down in Cobb County Georgia.

Brian Giles’ little brother, better known as Marcus, will continue to establish himself as one of the best second basemen in baseball. Giles, who had an injury plagued 2004 features terrific plate discipline and hits for great power out of the 2 slot. Giles will be part of a dynamic top of the order that will set the table for Chipper Jones.

Chipper Jones saw a decline in production in 2004, finishing the season with a .248 batting average but continued to walk at a terrific rate and still maintained an on-base percentage of .362. Following a dreadful beginning to the season, Jones produced the way he has for much of his career with a .278/.391/.548 line. This year, the Braves will need Jones to hit like this consistently as they will be missing their most productive hitter from 2004, JD Drew.

Drew, in a boneheaded move by Schuerholz, was not offered arbitration following the 2004 season. The Dodgers signed Drew and the Braves did not receive the compensatory pick that they would have had they offered arbitration. Instead, they were left to replace Drew’s monster bat with over the hill outfielders Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan. Mondesi has struggled the past few seasons and has found himself on his 5th team since 2003. Mondesi battled personal problems in 2004 and a knee injury, but still has one of the strongest arms in baseball. Jordan is coming off two injury plagued seasons, including a forgettable 2004 campaign where he had an on-base percentage below .300 and an OPS in Pokey Reese territory. Unfortunately for the Braves, this combo will not come close to replacing Drew’s production and their offensive output will suffer accordingly.

Handling the catching duties will be Johnny Estrada, who Schuerholz acquired for Kevin Millwood. Estrada had a breakout 2004 season, making the all-star team and hitting .314. He will bat behind Andruw Jones, who in addition to being a terrific defensive centerfielder, can still hit for power and draw a walk. Jones’ batting average numbers are nothing spectacular being consistently in the .260-.280 range over the past three seasons.

The Braves offense will be an average offensive team, and that may not be enough for a pitching staff that will not live up to those of past years in Atlanta.

Pitching:
How does Leo Mazzone do it? For years he has been able to get the most out of his starters. Countless pitchers have experienced a career rejuvenation in Turner Field under the tutelage of Mazzone. John Burkett, Mike Hampton, Jaret Wright, John Thomson, the list goes on. This year, Mazzone has a legitimate ace in Tim Hudson. Hudson has very good control, features a sinking fastball, splitter and curveball and can spot each of them very well and throw them in any count. He has never been a big strikeout pitcher but with a good Braves infield defense and moving into a league with no designated hitter, Hudson could legitimately contend for the Cy Young. Hudson is the best pitcher that Mazzone has had to work with since Greg Maddux, and with the career path he’s on, he is a potential Hall of Famer.

John Smoltz returns to the rotation after 2 seasons as a lights-out closer. Smoltz who battled arm troubles in the rotation and in the closer’s role will be an integral part of this Braves staff. If Smoltz can remain healthy and pitch the way he has this spring and throughout his career, the duo of Hudson and Smoltz will be among the best in the league.
The remainder of the rotation is lackluster, but Mazzone seems to get the most out of his pitchers. Mike Hampton, who was lit up like a Christmas tree in Coors Canaveral has rebounded with two seasons with an ERA below the major league average. Mazzone also found a serviceable pitcher in former Rangers right-hander John Thomson who was beaten up regularly with in the American League. Thomson has always had impressive control, and has continued that trend for the Braves. I don’t know what it is that makes Mazzone such an effective pitching coach, but it works. And the Braves should enjoy another season of quality starting pitching from 1 through 5 in the rotation.

The Braves bullpen took a hit with Smoltz moving to the rotation, but that gap has been filled with Dan Kolb. Kolb pounds the strike zone consistently and features a heavy sinkerball. Kolb should enjoy much of the same success he did with the Brewers, and the Braves may not miss a beat moving from Smoltz to Kolb. Gone however, is Juan Cruz who was a valuable contributor to the Braves pen with 70 innings of 2.75 ERA baseball. That means Chris Reitsma will have a more prominent role and will get the majority of time in the 8th inning setting up Kolb. Reitsma, the former Red Sox prospect does a good job of keeping the ball in the park and rarely issues free passes. He throws hard and keeps the ball on the ground with a good sinker, giving the Braves two sinkerballers at the end of the game. Late inning home runs will be difficult to come by against this staff.

The names in the pitching staff will have people questioning whether or not the Braves have the pitching to contend in the NL East. However, the only name people should be concerned about in the Braves pitching staff is Mazzone. As long as he is the pitching coach, the Braves pitching will continue to keep the team in the game.

The Braves will likely face their toughest challenge in defending their streak of 13 consecutive division championships this season. The Mets are vastly improved with the additions of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, and the Marlins have improved with the addition of Carlos Delgado and have a terrific pitching staff if Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett can stay healthy. The Braves will likely be predicted to finish 3rd according to most, however you can never count out the Braves. This year though, I believe the streak ends.

Prediction:
83-79, 3rd place National League East

Top 10 prospects:
1. Andy Marte, 3b
2. Jeff Francoeur, OF
3. Brian McCann, C
4. Kyle Davies, RHP
5. Anthony Lerew, LHP
6. Jake Stevens, LHP
7. Luis Hernandez, SS
8. Kelly Johnson, OF
9. Jarod Saltalamacchia, C
10. Blaine Boyer, RHP

…Or that’s how B.K. feels these days. Chris Snow’s notebook in the Boston Globe today spotlights Kim’s current struggle, both with his velocity and for acceptance among his teammates. Go check it out. Maybe I’m an apologist but I find it impossible not to sympathize with the guy.

Sean McAdam has an interesting article in the ProJo on Johnny Damon and his impending free agency. Damon expresses some, um, misguided opinions in the piece that suggest he has a bit of an inflated opinion of his value to a baseball team.

Damon already has thought some about player comparables and done some homework. He mentioned J.D. Drew’s deal with Los Angeles this offseason (five years, $55 million), while noting that Drew has yet to make an All-Star team or play center field regularly.

Three Year Splits
JD Drew: .283/.393/.508
Johnny Damon: .288/.361/.442

“And I had more RBI than he did, hitting from the leadoff spot,” Damon said. “There are definitely some numbers that land in my favor. Since Ichiro [Suzuki] came into the league, I have two more runs scored [452 to 450] and [31] more RBI [273 to 242].”

Yup and Ichiro played at Safeco in a bad lineup while you played at Fenway in the game’s best lineup. Context Johnny, context.

Three-Year Splits (Remember, these aren’t park-adjust and thus not even really indicative of just how much better Ichiro! is):
Ichiro!: .336/.385/.439
Damon: .281/.361/.442

Johnny Damon is a nice player that the Sox should seriously consider re-signing, even at a lucrative price. He is not, however, JD Drew or Ichiro Suzuki.

Washington Nationals
2004: 67-95 5th in the NL East

Projected Lineup:
LF Brad Wilkerson
CF Endy Chavez
2B Jose Vidro
RF Jose Guillen
3B Vinny Castilla
1B Nick Johnson
C Brian Schneider
SS Cristian Guzman

Projected Rotation:
Livan Hernandez
Esteban Loaiza
Tony Armas, Jr.
Tomo Ohka
Zach Day

Projected Closer:
Chad Cordero

Outlook:
Goodbye Stade Olyimpique.
Goodbye Montreal nightlife filled with strippers and escorts.
Goodbye crazy Canadian money (complete with beavers and hockey games!).

Hello RFK.
Hello D.C. nightlife filled with Capitol Hill interns living off daddy’s money.
Hello stalwart, boring American dollar.

Yes, 2005 marks a new era for our lovable Montreal Expos, the bastard child of Major League Baseball. They packed up their things and moved to D.C., taking up residence in RFK Stadium, one of the few stadia that could replicate the complete boringness of Olympic Stadium. Along the way they picked up a hitchhiking Jim Bowden to be the team’s new GM, fresh off of running the Reds straight into the ground. Upon arriving in Washington, the team took on a new nickname, but in typical baseball fashion, couldn’t even be counted on to come up with something very original. Thus was born the 2005 Washington Nationals.

Upon first look, the lineup for the Washington Nationals doesn’t look all that bad. OF/1B Brad Wilkerson put up a solid .872 OPS season in 2004, his third straight season above .840. There are rumors that Manager Frank Robinson wants to move Wilkerson down the order to take advantage of his bat, but that would necessitate moving Endy Chavez to the top of the order. Chavez has said all of the right things about taking walks and needing to get on-base at a high rate to be a successful leadoff hitter. Unfortunately, Chavez has never been that hitter. He’s a slap hitter with no power and no plate discipline. By all rights, Chavez should be the 4th outfielder on this squad, with Termell Sledge taking his spot in the order, but short of a complete Chavez implosion, Sledge will have to be satisfied with waiting for Wilkerson to move to 1B when Nick Johnson somehow breaks a rib while, ironically, ordering a McRib sandwich. Johnson is finally primed for his breakout season, which is the same thing that has been written about him for the past few seasons. If he can’t manage to stay healthy and in the lineup, 2005 will likely be his first and only season in Washington. 2B Jose Vidro wins this year’s “Most Likely to be Wearing Pinstripes at the Trade Deadline” award. Vidro’s a good hitter for a 2B and is easily the Nationals’ most sought after player.

The rest of the batting order is filled out by Jim Bowden acquisitions. New SS Cristian Guzman might be the best defensive SS in the game, while simultaneously being the worst hitting SS in the game (ok, second worst—you still win Pokey). Bowden decided to help set in motion the insanity that was the free agent market for shortstops by signing Guzman to a deal that even Cristian himself was surprised by. Even worse for the Nationals, a bunch of Guzman’s value was tied up in the Homerdome; Guzman is universally abysmal away from Minnesota. Bowden then, rightfully, decided that Tony Batista did not deserve the 3B job in Washington. So he signed 37 year old Vinny Castilla. Castilla still has some power, but all of his other offensive skills have atrophied. He was a pure Coors mirage in 2004, putting up a line of .218/.281/.493 away from the Mile High City. Jose Guillen was brought into be the RF, fresh off of him throwing a nutty in Anaheim in the middle of a playoff race. Guillen should be a decent upgrade over Juan Rivera, the man he was traded for, but comes with the added risk that he’s completely and utterly insane. Still, this was a positive move for the team. This offense didn’t score a lot in 2004 and doesn’t look like it will do much better in 2005. The Nationals are completely dependent on the oft-rumored breakout from Nick Johnson and a return to 2003 levels by Jose Guillen. Even then, this is a rudimentary offense.

The Nationals’ rotation is actually a moderate bright spot for the team. Livan Hernandez continues to buck all the rational thought and logic that says throwing 1 billion pitches will hurt your arm. I bet Dusty Baker masturbates to thoughts of having Livan Hernandez again. New acquisition Estaban Loaiza was acquired on the cheap, coming off a pretty awful 2004. Loaiza was actually pitching ok for Chicago before being traded, so that bodes well for Washington. Tony Armas, Jr. is never going to be the pitcher many expected him to develop into, but if he can stay healthy, he should be “good enough.” The same can be said about Tomo Ohka. He’s been a pretty decent pitcher when healthy, but unlike Tony Armas, Jr., Ohka isn’t the second player in baseball history to have four body parts in his name. Zach Day rounds out the staff, though he’ll be pushed by Jon Rauch. Both Day and Rauch pitched pretty well to close out 2004 and in Spring Training. With Rauch (who’s still only 25), the Nationals have a legitimate #6 starter, which should serve them well. Hell, the Nationals actually have John Patterson around as a #7 starter. That’s decent depth.

The Nationals bullpen is lead by Chad Cordero. Cordero is young, has a good fastball, and a filthy slider. He should continue to improve and be one of the best relievers in baseball. Luis Ayala is also young and was probably better than Cordero in 2004. Ayala and Cordero is as good a young core to a bullpen as you will find. T.J. Tucker, Claudio Vargas, Gary Majewski, and Antonio Osuna will probably join Ayala and Cordero in the pen. Majewski and Tucker are two more young arms with good upside. Osuna was a solid offseason pickup by Bowden, as he’s been a good-to-great bullpen arm for his entire career.

The Washington pitching staff is a good enough staff that they’ll be able to help overcome some of the shortcomings of the offense, but not enough to help this team compete for the NL East or even the NL Wild Card. The Nationals offense is seriously flawed and there’s not a whole lot of help in the pipeline. With Bowden now running the show, his proclivity for acquiring toolsy players over productive players could simply mean that the Washington minor league system is going to fill up with lots of guys who look great playing baseball but don’t actually ever help the big league team. So Orioles fans shouldn’t jump ship just yet.

RIP Youppi. You will be missed.

Prediction: 69-93

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Mike Hinckley LHP
2. Ryan Church OF
3. Larry Broadway 1B
4. Brendan Harris 2B-3B
5. Clint Everts RHP
6. Bill Bray LHP
7. Darrel Rasner RHP
8. Daryl Thompson RHP
9. Collin Balestar RHP
10. Kory Casto 3B

San Diego Padres
2004: 87-75 3rd in the NL West

Projected lineup:
CF Dave Roberts
2B Mark Loretta
RF Brian Giles
1B Phil Nevin
LF Ryan Klesko
3B Sean Burroughs
SS Khalil Greene
C Ramon Hernandez

Projected Rotation:
Jake Peavy
Woody Williams
Brian Lawrence
Adam Eaton
Darrell May

Closer:
Trevor Hoffman

Outlook:
The San Diego Padres rejoined baseball relevance for the first time since 1998 in 2004, and even flirted with a playoff berth down the stretch. A good offense, a fuggedaboutit bullpen and a problematic-but-talented starting rotation helped the team acclimate to its new digs, which I can report are both spacious and beautiful. While Mark Loretta’s OPS may be tough to project for 2005, you can pretty much bank on game time temps being around 71 degrees without a cloud in the sky for Padres home games all season long. Sounds trivial and bears little relevance to the team’s 2005 prospects but it’s damn pleasant, and I thought I’d mention it. The team returns virtually in tact. Kevin Towers added Dave Roberts in exchange for Ramon Vazquez and Jay Payton. He also flipped perennial out-machine Terrence Long for fifth starter Darrell May and added former Cardinal Woody Williams. The end result? Tough to say, but I have a feeling Towers failed to cover for some very predictable regression on the offensive side from some 30-something white guys.

While the Padres put up a very respectable 108 team OPS+ last season, I think the offense may plod a bit in 2005. Regression candidates abound and the youngsters in the lineup don’t appear ready to assume a prominent enough position to cover the difference. Dave Roberts will lead off and handle centerfield duties. Now don’t get me wrong, I love Dave Roberts and he is many things, including but not limited to: a gentleman, fast, 32, well traveled and most memorably, the possessor of the most famous stolen base in Boston Red Sox history. What he is not, however, is worth giving up Jay Payton and Ramon Vazquez and more to the point, he is not worthy of full-time lead-off duties for an offense with serious aspirations. It would be tough for any honest prognosticator to portend another MVP-type season from Mark Loretta. Expect him to return to being the very good player he has been for much of his career. Brian Giles, in his 33 year-old season (2004), took a very real step back. He’s more Moises Alou than Gary Sheffield now and probably is no longer the guy you want anchoring your championship-caliber offense. Phil Nevin is another slugger entering his mid-thirties for whom some pullback would have to be anticipated. Ryan Klesko follows him. Getting the gist here? Ramon Hernandez will catch and hit in the eight-hole. He’s fine, a dependable defensive catcher and an average offensive one. He won’t hurt you but probably won’t be carrying a team to a division title, either. The two players that will have to step up for the Padres this year bat sixth and seventh and man the left side of their infield. Sean Burroughs, now 25 years old, is going to have to add a little pop to his game. Though it’s tough to see it happening, if he is going to come anywhere near expectations, a .370/.420 type season in 2005 is in order. The Padres will need it too. A more likely candidate to fulfill expectations plays just to Burroughs’s left. Khalil Greene has the pop to be an offensive star at shortstop, and if he can mix in a little discipline he’ll get there.

The rotation looks fine if Woody Williams stays healthy. Jake Peavy appears to be a budding star, and Kevin Towers was wise to lock him up pre-arbitration. Williams has long been a very good pitcher and would make a fine #2 as long as he is taking a regular turn. Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence will both excel in fits and starts but over the haul amass to little more than average innings-eaters. In the fifth spot, Towers is banking on 2004 being an anomaly for Darrell May, a reasonable bet I suppose if Darrell May is your kind of thing.

In the bullpen, the Pads boast a top-3 to compete with anybody. Trevor Hoffman continues to get it done out of the closer position while Akinori Otsuka and Scott Linebrink set him up as well as any set-up men in the biz. After these three it gets a little dicey. Chris Hammons should be fine I guess but after that, we’re talking Rudy Seanez, Dennis Reyes and Steve Sparks. If the Padres starters can consistently go deep into ballgames, the bullpen will be fine. If they need help early, it could be a different story.

So what of these Padres? The good news for them is that they will be competing against the weak NL West, both for a playoff spot and in individual contests for half of their schedule. The bad news is that they have not executed the necessary tinkering to make amends for an aging, injury-prone club. The Padres find themselves at something of a crossroads this season and it will be interesting to see what Towers does from here. Save Peavy, the core is aging and the farm system is thin. Worse, one-time hopeful for franchise cornerstone status, Sean Burroughs, appears as though he may never attain such a post. Without some creativity, the future of the Padres looks bleak and though he has done a good enough job to date, Towers will face his toughest tests going forward.

Prediction: 84-78

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Josh Barfield 2B
2. George Kottaras C
3. Travis Chick RHP
4. Freddy Guzman OF
5. Sean Thompson LHP
6. Matt Bush SS
7. Brad Baker RHP
8. Tim Stauffer RHP
9. Justin Germano RHP
10. Paul McAnulty OF

Cincinnati Reds
2004: 76-86 4th in the NL Central

Projected Lineup:
2B D’Angelo Jimenez
3B Joe Randa
1B Sean Casey
LF Adam Dunn
CF Ken Griffey Jr
RF Austin Kearns
C Jason LaRue
SS Felipe Lopez

Projected Rotation:
Eric Milton
Paul Wilson
Ramon Ortiz
Aaron Harang
Brandon Claussen

Closer:
Danny Graves

Outlook:
When was the last time the Reds had pitching? Seriously, I don’t know, and I could use some help here. A quick look shows that they have had pretty mediocre pitching ever since the days of Jack McKeon’s Wacky Jamesian Bullpen, which only worked because McKeon is an old baseball man, not because maybe it is better to use your best arms rather than 11th pitchers just because it happens to be the 7th inning. I digress

Dan O’Brien is still cleaning up the mess that was left to him by Jim Bowden. The only bad thing for Red fans is that he’s doing a half assed job in doing so. I love hitting the ball as much as anyone, but all the offense in the world wins you few games if you can’t somehow figure out a way to consistently retire the other team before they match your output. It’s balance, Kyle. That’s how teams have been winning since Baseball was in short pants. Yes, I know, Baseball will occasionally get cranky and let a team with all-offense and average defense win (92 Blue Jays), or a team with questionable hitting and great pitching (95 Braves). Hell, once in a while, Baseball will poop it’s pants and unleash a completely average in all aspects of the game team upon the World Series trophy (03 Marlins). Those teams generally are met with woe unless the deficient part of the baseball calculus is fixed. What’s my point? The Reds have no pitching at all, and their offense is at the whimsy of Dr. Heath. And I wanted to use a pooping analogy right before using the word “calculus”. Having your own blog is fun.

Anyway, having the task of winning a World Series in one of those pesky towns with history and that stuff is no easy task when you are determined to do as little as possible to actually win one. Case in point: you need pitching, so you sign…Eric Milton for your homer happy ballpark! You need a manager to be creative enough to make use of your roster of 4 infielders, 2 catchers, and 9 outfielders. Let’s keep Dave Miley, the Les Nessman of baseball managers! Miley might be a good guy, and is a Five Time Buckeye Award Winner, but come on. His own wife doesn’t really know he runs the Reds.

So Dan O’Brien said to himself, “You know what, Thor (in my head, O’Brien calls himself Thor), we need someone to front our staff. Lord Lindner said I have a mere $7 million a year to sign a guy. My ballpark depresses everything, except home runs. I could either sign this guy that gets a lot of groundballs, so won’t be hurt by my ballpark, or maybe break it up over a few pitchers to add depth, so Aaron Harang doesn’t need to start. Fuck it, I’ll just get Milton. I mean, he was a Yankee prospect!”

Past the Milton signing (which will be a disaster), the Reds still have that collection of 4th and 5th starters that will chew up innings at a below average rate. Re-upped is Paul Wilson, who went from Generation K to Generation Passable in the span of 10 years. I do think that Wilson and Isringhausen call up Pulsipher on the phone and do nothing but laugh. At least I would have. Behind Wilson in the rotation is Ramon Ortiz. I remember when he was called Baby Pedro. That disappeared when he ended up being five months younger than Real Pedro. And when he sucked. He should bring that same consistency to the Reds.

Filling out the rotation is Aaron Harang, who’s claim to fame is having a last name that kind of sounds like that noise you make when you collect the phlegm in your throat. Incidentally, that’s usually how he pitches too. Brandon Claussen has the inside track on the fifth spot, probably for reminding the Reds of Milton from a forgotten day. Actually that’s not fair. Claussen is four years younger. Crimminy, they even look alike.

The Reds bullpen has actually been pretty competent of late. By competent, I mean not as bad as the rotation. At the back end, Danny Graves is still there piling up saves for pitching well enough in save situations to not cough up a three run lead. The rest of the arms this year have some interestingness to them. Arms like Jose Acevedo, Ryan Wagner, Ben Weber, and David Weathers make up the pen. The Reds, in their wisdom, are also paying Kent Mercker over $2 million a year to be a LOOGY. Good job, that.

Jason LaRue mans behind the plate with the same set of LaRue skills, including good power, excellent defense, a declining arm, and being very boring to watch play. It could be worse though, he could be Javier Valentin. In his career, Javier Valentin has grounded into 20 double plays. Wow!

On the corners, the Reds have a Resurgent Sean Casey, and a Steady Joe Randa. You know at one time in the last few years, Casey was a more productive hitter than Carlos Delgado. In 1999, Casey was a better hitter. Of course since then, Delgado has been “the man” as the kids say, and Casey has been below average, paid like he wasn’t. Joe Randa looks like the Joker. So his nickname is “The Joker”. Reds Baseball! Randa is a nice player to have on your team, in that he’ll be better than league average and a fan favorite. His real value is keeping Edwin Encarnacion in the minors for another season, and pumping a bullet in the head of the Austin Kearns to 3rd experiment.

Around the bag, the Reds have D’Angelo Jimenez at 2nd and what looks like Felipe Lopez at short. Lopez has big shoes to fill, with the 87 year old Barry Larkin retiring and becoming Jim Bowden’s coffee boy down in Washington. Lopez doesn’t have the same skill set has Larkin, meaning he isn’t very good. He’s still only 25 now, and if he can keep the bat on his shoulder a little more, he could become a serviceable. Now, his legacy is the return for the 4-way deal that got rid of Elmer Dessens, and sent Eurbial Durazo to Oakland. Jimenez is one of the more underrated players in the game. His skill set is taking walks, and very occasionally hitting an extra base hit. He won’t win any Gold Gloves, and he’ll never be as famous as former teammate Alfonso Soriano, but the Reds can do worse than keep him around through his arbitration years. He’s good for one .310/.390/.435 year in his career amongst the .265/.355/.380 years.

Now here is where the Reds get interesting. For three spots in the outfield, about 4350 innings, the Reds need to find guys that can play there. They have Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey and Austin Kearns penciled in there, making an outfield most potent. They have a 4th outfielder, in Wily Mo Pena, that could step in any of those spots, hitting for extreme amounts of power, and making an extreme amount of outs in the process. They can also write in Ryan Freel out there from time to time, and he wouldn’t embarrass himself either. Pena and Freel are important to have because, while Dunn is steady, Kearns has been battling injury his whole career, and Ken Griffey was just named the new drummer for Spinal Tap. Because of that, there is an asterisk next to what should be the best outfield in baseball.

By the way, Adam Dunn is my favorite National League player. If anyone on this site or any other does not like Dunn because of the 195 strike outs, I will hunt you down and sell you into Sudanese slavery. Let’s see how you like those K’s now, white man.

Other than Freel and Pena, the Reds bench contains such players as Anderson Machado, and Ray Olmedo. I will continue my policy of not saying anything of substance about benches.

In a crappy Central, the Reds should be a contender. But by putting Milton brand band-aids over machete lacerations left over from the Bowden era, Dan O’Brien, either by misreconizing the market, or as subject to Herr Lindner’s repressive budget, the fans in Queen City will only see marginal improvement, if that. With Houston and Chicago both declining, and the Pirates treading water, the Reds could have made a run for the Wild Card at least. Instead, they’ll battle Milwaukee for “NL Central team that gets their highlights shown before the half way mark of Baseball Tonight.

Predicition: 77-85

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Edwin Encarnacion 3B
2. Joey Votto 1B
3. Richie Gardner RHP
4. Thomas Pauley RHP
5. Homer Bailey RHP
6. Tyler Pelland LHP
7. B.J. Szymanski OF
8. Todd Coffey RHP
9. William Bergola 2B
10. Carlos Guevera RHP

Go and head on over to the Baseball Analysts site, where ya boy conducted a little roundtable discussion on the AL East with Rich, Bryan and Cliff Corcoran, formerly of Big Red Blog fame and currently with Alex Belth over at Bronx Banter.

Chicago White Sox
2004: 83-79 2nd in the AL Central

Projected Lineup:
LF Scott Podsednik
SS Juan Uribe
CF Aaron Rowland
DH Frank Thomas
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
C A.J. Pierzynski
2B Tadahito Iguchi
3B Joe Crede

Projected Rotation:
Mark Buehrle
Freddy Garcia
Jose Contreras
Jon Garland
Orlando Hernandez

Projected Closer:
Shingo Takatsu

Outlook:
Ken Williams is the GM everybody loves to knock. He continually makes deals that run counter to the tenets of sabermetrics, deals that seem to never really improve his team very much. The thing is, they never really hurt the team very much either. For the past 4 seasons, the White Sox have won between 81 and 86 games. The Pale Hose might not be a great team, but they’ve never really become a bad one. Fortunately—or unfortunately, depending on your perspective—the 2005 version of the South Siders looks to follow that trend.

Devastating injuries to Magglio Ordonez and Frank Thomas cost the White Sox a lot of production last season. Neither Sandy Alomar nor the later acquired Roberto did much at the plate, nor did Williams-favorite Carl Everett. Yet the White Sox still managed to have a productive offense, behind the career seasons of Juan Uribe and Aaron Rowland. Aaron Rowland might have had the quietest good season in baseball last year. Paul Konerko rebounded after his subpar 2003 to again post solid numbers at 1B. Carlos Lee continued to pound the ball while no one noticed.

Mashers Ordonez and Lee are both gone, Ordonez to Detroit via free agency and Lee to Milwaukee for speedster Scott Podsednik. Podsednik adds some speed and improved defense to the top of the White Sox lineup. He’ll be joined in the outfield by Aaron Rowland, now 27, and free agent acquisition Jermaine Dye. Rowland probably won’t improve upon his 2004 line of .310/.361/.544, but he’s not likely to fall too far off of those numbers. Dye hasn’t been much better than league average when healthy in recent seasons, but that production will be more than the White Sox got out of Joe Borchard and Timo Perez. The infield features Joe Crede at 3B, who has never developed into the hitter he was expected to. He’s got some pop but is absolutely killed by his lack of plate discipline. He’ll likely cede a lot of at bats to Willie Harris, who’ll spell Crede, Juan Uribe at SS, and Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi at 2B. Uribe blossomed after leaving the Mile High City, ironically showing more power than he had shown in Colorado. Iguchi was highly sought after, yet somehow ended up in White, rather than Red, Sox. It’s hard to project exactly how to adjust to MLB pitching, but the expectation is he’s more likely to hit like Kaz Matsui than Hideki Matsui. Any production the White Sox can get out of him will likely be a bonus to their offense. Head case A.J. Pierzynski finally found a suitor in Chicago, allowing him to return to the AL Central after being exiled to San Francisco. Pierzynski can still hit a little, as he’s a pure contact hitter who nearly always puts the ball in play, good or bad. With Konerko and Frank Thomas in front of him, he might again hit into double-digit double plays. Thomas hopes to make a triumphant return to the South Side after an injury shortened 2004. At 37, Thomas can still rake, and a healthy Frank Thomas is a key to the White Sox success, as they do not have a lot of depth. Ross Gload, Carl Everett, and Timo Perez make up the bulk of the bench. Gload is really the only one that has any upside as a hitter, and he’s blocked by Thomas and Konerko. The White Sox should be healthier in 2005, and I think that will lead to them scoring a few more runs, even as they lost two big bats in Ordonez and Lee.

The pitching staff also looks to be improved over its 2004 counterpart. Mark Buehrle returns as the staff ace, but he’s going to miss the first month of the season with a broken foot. In his place will be top prospect Brandon McCarthy. It’s hard to imagine McCarthy will be able to step right into Buehrle’s shoes, but he’s got a stellar minor league track record. If McCarthy can perform adequately, it simply deepens a potentially strong White Sox staff. Freddy Garcia is here for his first full season in Chicago. He’s been an enigma over his career, but Garcia’s still a good pitcher and is certainly an improvement over the the departed Scott Schoeneweis. Jose Contreras is also back for his first full season in black and white. He’s got filthy stuff, but has never harnessed it. If he again fails to mix his splitter and four-seamer effectively, the White Sox might give his spot to McCarthy, should he prove effective in Buehrle’s absence. Jon Garland and ex-Yankee Orlando Hernandez round out the rotation. Garland is still young and has been consistently average for his career. He doesn’t strike many batters out, so he’s going to have to rely on the improved White Sox outfield defense. El Duque made a marvelous return to baseball in 2004, after missing all of 2003. When healthy he has always been a stellar pitcher. He hasn’t thrown near 200 innings since 2000, so the White Sox will have to keep a close eye on the Cuban, who is quite possibly 50 years old.

The Sox pen is average, but is anchored by stellar closer Shingo Takatsu. He’s joined by Damaso Marte, who was similarly effective in 2004. Cliff Politte and Jon Adkins return as well. Both were slightly better than average pitchers last season, something that is helpful in the reconfigured US Cellular field. Luiz Vizcaino and Dustin Hermansen join the pen. Vizcaino came over in the Lee/Podsednik deal. He’s got a live arm, striking out nearly eight batters per nine innings, while maintaining a near 3:1 K:BB ratio. Hermansen isn’t great, but he gives the White Sox a legitimate swingman in the pen, and could come in handy should Contreras or Hernandez give into their age.

I really wanted to dislike the White Sox off season. There’s just not enough to hate. The Sox played pretty well in 2004, despite getting minimal output from Frank Thomas or Magglio Ordonez. Thomas is back in 2005, and the Sox have added enough offense in Dye and Iguchi to potentially improve on their 2004, or at least put up a similar amount of runs. Couple that with a likely improved staff (upon the return of the injured Buehrle) and I think that’s a recipe for a couple game improvement. 85 wins probably won’t be enough to win the division, especially with every other team in the AL Central arguably improved, but this team is good enough to take the Central should the Twins slip.

On the other hand, they’re managed by Ozzie Guillen. Maybe I should reverse that 85 and 77.

Prediction: 85-77

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Brandon McCarthy RHP
2. Brian Anderson OF
3. Ryan Sweeney OF
4. Giovany Gonzalez LHP
5. Ray Liotta LHP
6. Sean Tracey RHP
7. Josh Fields 3B
8. Chris Young OF
9. Francisco Hernandez C
10. Kris Honel RHP

- Chris Snow has a piece on Derek Lowe pitching against his ex-mates yesterday. It includes another classic from Derek’s “I swear to Christ I’m over it godammit” routine.

We’re way beyond that,” he said. “I saw Pedro [Martinez] 10 days ago. He’s over it. And I’m over it. It’s nice that both the guys who left are pitching Opening Day for their respective clubs. I think that says something about the guys they got rid of.”

- Snow also contributes a solid notebook, highlighted by the news that Dustin Pedroia will shift over to 2nd Base for the Portland Sea Dogs this season. With the Jons (Papelbon and Lester) and the middle infield of Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez, the Sea Dogs should be a great take this summer.

- Finally, Jeff Horrigan, in his notebook in the Herald this morning, has some quotes from Terry Francona voicing his displeasure with Doug Mirabelli over Mirabelli’s comments about Byung-Hyun Kim yesterday.

When your arm goes dead your arm goes dead. Byung-Hyun Kim is not an effective pitcher because he can no longer throw the ball with any sort of velocity, not because he lacks the steely resolve to be a Major League Baseball closer.

It appears as though even Kim’s teammates have joined in on the bizarre piling on. See if you can spot anything of substance in this diatribe from Doug Mirabelli excerpted from Sean McAdam’s piece in the Pro-Jo this morning..

“I don’t get a sense of anything from him,” he said. “You don’t get a sense for what he’s feeling. I have no idea. He stays in his own world. I don’t know if he gets the concept of (being) a teammate or if he grasps that. I don’t know if it’s a knock against him that he doesn’t grasp that, but people have tried to help him out. You’ve got to give him some leeway for [the] language (barrier), but at some point [you realize] he does speak more than he lets on. So at that point, you start to think he’s making that choice.”

I wonder if Doug, in a moment of genuine honesty, could say that he has done everything he could to make Kim feel as comfortable as possible. What a quote like this accomplishes is so far beyond me that I can’t even venture a guess.

I have always pulled for Kim and believe he has gotten a raw deal ever since the 2001 World Series. As anyone who has ever looked into the actual details of that Series knows, it was as much Bob Brenly’s fault as it was Kim’s. Hopefully Kim regains the live arm that allowed him to be one of the most devastating pitchers of the early 21st century but at the very least, let’s hope he can discover some of the jovial exuberance every young adult ought to experience. Kim has seemed to me a tortured soul, robbed of early adulthood by ignorant scribes, Joe-Fans and now mouthy back-up catchers across America.

New York Mets by Chris Klemmer
2004: 71-91, .438 4th in the NL East

Projected Lineup:
RF Mike Cameron
SS Jose Reyes
CF Carlos Beltran
C Mike Piazza
LF Cliff Floyd
3B David Wright
1B Doug Mientkiewicz
2B Kaz Matsui

Projected Rotation:
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Kris Benson
Victor Zambrano
Kaz Ishii

Closer:
Braden Looper

Outlook:

Si.

The “New Mets” are here in 2005! And this time… they are Latin!

Last year the Mets combined failure and boredom in what was a very disappointing season. My favorite part of the 2004 Mets was when they fired manager Art Howe with like 2 weeks left but allowed him to keep working. Jeff said that if he was Howe in that situation, he would do crazy things like have the pitcher leadoff and put Mike Piazza at shortstop. Howe did none of these things (except have Todd Zeile catch but Zeile wanted to that and obviously had caught before so that’s not really even that crazy.). Jeff was also disappointed at the lack of Howe making pitching changes wearing the Mr. Met head.

So in the off season they went out and got a new manager in Willie Randolph. Randolph is a member of the Hall Of Very Good and is/was always a good quote so the NY press will probably give him far more breaks then they gave Art Howe. This is Metsie good news!

But the NEW METS did not stop there. They went out and signed Pedro Martinez, the best pitcher in the free agent market, and the best hitter in Carlos Beltran. This is even more Metsie good news!

Sadly, they lost out in the Delgado Sweepstakes and got stuck with Doug Mientkiewicz at first base. Minky was one of those rare players who you liked less the more you saw him. I heard a rumor he has a great glove which would be great except he plays first base.

This could be a 90+ win very easily and it could also go 80-82 just as easily.

Things that need to go right:
-Kaz Matsui and Jose Reyes need to hit all year and stay healthy. If they can play like they can (Matsui showed strong signs last year and Reyes was decent in 2003), they could be a force in that infield.

-Victor Zambrano needs to really maximize the benefit of not facing a DH. Zambrano obviously has huge control problems, but when a pitcher like a Zambrano goes to the NL, he benefits from the automatic out. Facing the pitcher is a real relief when he has already clogged the bases. Zambrano has very good stuff, and will win 15 games if he stays healthy.

-Tom Glavine and Cliff Floyd need to stop being old. Glavine has turned into an OK pitcher seemingly right after leaving Atlanta. This has to stop. He doesn’t have to be the ace anymore now that Pedro is in New York and really needs to get that walk total down.

Floyd meanwhile looked great when I saw him play the Tigers here in Spring Training. For the past two years, he has had a worse limp then the one legged guy I saw today at a restaurant. He showed no signs of that limp in the game I saw and his bat would a huge plus for a team that needs all the power it can get if it really wants to contend.

Other things that strike me:

-The Mets needed to do the Ishii/Phillips deal. The only problem is that Ishii isn’t very good and Piazza is an injury risk. It also shows how out of favor the Mets are with Jae Seo and Aaron Heilmann.

-Before being sent down, do you think Andy Dominque would sit with Pedro and Minky and discuss the old days?

-David Wright is one of the best prospects in the game and could easily- EASILY be in the All-Star game this season. A 21 year old puts up .293/.332/.525 in his first taste of the Majors…in Shea no less. It’s so funny the Mets have their best hitting prospect in years playing third base after the “Curse” that the Mets never had a good third baseman. Of course Howard Johnson led the league in homers playing third base for them but when did Curses need logic?

-The Mets bullpen really sucks. Looper is good, but you only have Mike Dejean, Felix Heredia and Matt Ginter to get to him? Roberto Hernandez and Mike Matthews are there too but wow… that sucks ass. The Devil Rays have been crying all Spring about how they need an outfield bat. They should trade Travis Harper to the Mets for Victor Diaz. But that trade makes way too much sense to happen.

Until the Traschel hurt his back, I thought the Mets had a good shot of winning the NL East. I still think they could but the Marlins are the favorites in my eyes.

Prediction: 88-74

Top 10 Prospects (by Jeff):
1. Yusmeiro Petit RHP
2. Lastings Milledge OF
3. Phil Humber RHP
4. Gaby Hernandez RHP
5. Victor Diaz OF
6. Aarom Baldiris 3B
7. Matt Durkin RHP
8. Ambroix Concepcion OF
9. Brian Bannister RHP
10. Jeff Keppinger 2B

Baltimore Orioles
2004: 78-84 3rd in the AL East

Projected Lineup:
2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
SS Miguel Tejada
RF Sammy Sosa
DH Rafael Palmeiro
C Javy Lopez
1B Jay Gibbons
LF Larry Bigbie
CF Luis Matos

Projected Rotation:
Sidney Ponson
Rodrigo Lopez
Erik Bedard
Daniel Cabrera
Matt Riley

Projected Closer:
B.J. Ryan

Outlook:
The 2004 version of the Baltimore Orioles had no problem scoring runs—amassing 842 runs, good for 8th in MLB and 6th in the AL. Unfortunately for the Orioles, they had two significant problems:

• the Orioles are in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, two of the teams who scored more runs in 2004.
• the Orioles pitching staff gave up 830 runs, which made them 9th worst in MLB.

You might think that the course of action for 2005 would be obvious, upgrade the pitching staff and add some depth to a bench that is rapidly aging. Well, Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan don’t follow conventional wisdom. Baltimore will trot out pretty much the same rotation as they did in 2004, but with the off season addition of Sammy Sosa, the Orioles offense is going to try to outslug the rest of the baseball world.

When the Cubs were looking to find a team that would take on Sosa’s contract and other baggage (questions about potential steroid usage, a decline in production), they found a taker in the Orioles, who had been turned down by Carlos Delgago. For a mere pittance (Jerry Hairston Jr, and a couple of minor leaguers who probably fall outside of Chicago’s top 20), the Orioles acquired a slugger who triggers a bit of a domino effect that makes the Orioles already potent offense even more potent. With Sosa in RF, Jay Gibbons can move to 1B, allowing Rafael Palmeiro to move to DH, enabling super-sub David Newhan to be utilized to spell nearly any player on the field. Larry Bigbie and Luis Matos round out the outfield. Both players are entering what should be their prime seasons. Bigbie is a decent bet to put up around an .800 OPS. Matos is probably the weakest link in a very strong offense, a hitter who doesn’t walk or hit for much power. If he plays as poorly as he did in 2004,the Orioles might play Bigbie in CF with Newhan playing in LF. Javy Lopez, Miguel Tejada, and Melvin Mora fill out the rest of the batting order at C, SS, and 3B, respectively. That trio might just be the most underrated in baseball. Tejada has easily surpassed fellow SS Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter to be the premiere SS in the game. Mora has quietly put up two straight big seasons, but most people only know him as the dad of quintuplets. Lopez regressed as expected after his career year in 2003, but is still one of the top hitting catchers and is a good bet to put up similarly good numbers in 2005. All told, the 2005 Orioles have one of the best offenses in all of baseball, top to bottom. If they avoid injuries, the Orioles might very well score more runs than anybody save the Boston Red Sox.

While the offense is scoring a ton of runs, the pitching staff will try not to give them all back. They probably won’t be successful, but they’ll try. Judge-beater Sir Sidney Ponson is the staff ace, but in name only. He’s still living off of the sheen from his one pretty good season in 2003. Rodrigo Lopez is probably the best pitcher in the rotation, with two good seasons (2002 and 2004) surrounding a pretty awful season (2003). Lopez is actually a year older than Ponson, but has thrown only half as many innings. Orioles fans hope they haven’t seen his best yet. Young starters Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, and Matt Riley will fill out the rotation. All three are 26 or younger and have control issues, but have shown glimpses of good stuff. On a good team, these guys would be competing for the 5th starter role, with the others working out of the pen. In Baltimore, they’re pretty much guaranteed the 3-4-5 slots. That does not bode well for the folks in Balmer.

One area the Orioles did improve is their bullpen. Returning are likely new closer B.J. Ryan and fireballer Jorge Julio. Ryan has the ability to be one of the best relievers in baseball. Julio’s got heat and strikes out about a batter an inning, but has control issues that cause him to get hit hard on occasion. Newly acquired Steve Kline is a lefty-killer who can also be used against righties. Jason Grimsley was part of the worst deal in recent Orioles history when he was acquired for top prospect Denny Bautista. Despite that, he’s still a decent arm in the bullpen and is working on a string of good seasons back to 1999. Steve Reed, another off season acquisition, is 40, but has been fantastic everywhere he’s pitched, which at this point covers pretty much half of baseball.

The 2005 Orioles are built such that they’re going to have to outslug teams over the first 7 innings and hope that the pen can close things out. If Baltimore was in Indiana and not in Maryland, the Orioles would have a legitimate shot at winning either Central division, where a majority of the offenses wouldn’t stand a chance against the lineup the Orioles have accumulated. But Baltimore is in Maryland, and the Orioles play in the AL East. They’re probably still good enough to finish 3rd, but the pitching isn’t good enough to compete for the Wild Card unless the Yankees or Red Sox completely implode. That’s simply not likely to happen, so Oriole fans are going to have to hold their breath and hope that Beattie and Flanagan find a way to upgrade the starting pitching before the Orioles dominant offense ages and becomes pedestrian.

Prediction: 80-82

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Nick Markakis OF
2. Jeff Fiorentino OF
3. Hayden Penn RHP
4. Val Majewski OF
5. Adam Loewen LHP
6. John Maine RHP
7. Chris Ray RHP
8. Tripper Johnson 3B
9. Jacobo Sequea RHP
10. Walter Young 1B

Oakland Athletics
2004: 91-71 2nd in the AL West

Projected Lineup:
CF Mark Kotsay
C Jason Kendall
3B Eric Chavez
DH Eurbial Durazo
SS Bobby Crosby
1B Scott Hatteberg
2B Keith Ginter
LF Nick Swisher
RF Eric Byrnes

Projected Rotation:
Barry Zito
Rich Harden
Joe Blanton
Danny Haren
Dan Meyer

Closer:
Octavio Dotel

Outlook:
You have to hand it to Billy Beane. He could have been content just being known as the Smart Kid, but no, he had to go and write Moneyball and be slavish to stats, and be mean to scouts! I mean, when did Beane every play baseball!?

For all the legitimate criticisms of Beane, there are some things that can not be denied, most of all is that he has no problem being bold when the situation calls for complacency. If you listen to his critics, the main reason for the Athletics’ success in recent years hasn’t been exploiting market inefficiencies in order to make the best use of the assets that you have, heavens no. It was Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito, who Beane had no say in drafting, nor in their development. Beane also didn’t build his team around their strengths at all. Just HudsonMulderZito. Nothing else. Inefficiencies is hard to spell anyway.

As a delightful Fuck You to his competitors, I would hope anyway, Beane traded Hudson to Atlanta for Dan Meyer, Charles Thomas, and Juan Cruz. Two days later, Mulder was sent to St Louis for Daric Barton, Dan Haren, and Kiko Calero. In two swoops, two of the better pitchers in baseball were magically turned into two lesser pitchers into the rotation. And based on a Kieltian whimsy, a 4th/5th outfielder. And two members of what should be a very good bullpen. And the top catching prospect in baseball. Damn you Bill Beane!

As scribes all over bemoan the losses of Hudson and Mulder, lost is the fact that the A’s are still a pretty good baseball team. The success of the team will be determined on the arms that begin the game. At the top of the rotation sits Barry Zito. Zito is a Cy Young winner, based on the alter of pitcher’s wins. Because of that, his 2003 was seemingly underrated, as he was a top 10 pitcher in the American League. Last year, Zito had a rebound in his strikeouts, back to acceptability. However, he still walks too many guys, and gives up a goodly number of home runs for a pitcher who lives in Al Davis’s Playhouse. Though it’s not fair to call him a one pitch pitcher, if Zito’s curve isn’t working, he gets turned out like a blond boy in prison.

As for the rest of the rotation, it’s going to be a serious gut check for the A’s faithful (ironically named. They’ve turned on Beane almost as many times has he’s put together 90 win teams on a shoestring). Rich Harden is one good season away from being the next in line of A’s pitchers that will be explained away by the Luddites. Joe Blanton is penciled into rotation to take Harden’s place as “starter that is one season away from being great”. The Emeriti of this position in the past few years have been Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Harden. Not bad company for a fat guy that makes people hit ground balls. Danny Haren looks like he smokes more weed than anyone this side of Delonte West. I really want to be a fly on the wall the first time Haren puffs that third time and Zito is next in the circle. Especially if the end result is Haren 15-Day DL (Acoustic guitar splinters in eye).

The fifth spot should be up toss up with Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, Seth Etherton, Jimmy Serrano, and Kirk Saarloos, all wanting to clinch a spot in the rotation. I would give the nod to Saarloos, simply because I don’t know if Meyer is ready, Etherton isn’t good, Cruz is pretty much penciled for the bullpen, and Serreno can’t throw curve ball. Straight ball they hit very much, but curve ball, bats are afraid. In truth, I have no idea if Serrano can throw a hook. I’m still taking the 5’2” righty, simply because we need as many Dutch players on the A’s as possible. More weed jokes for Jeff. Make Jeff happy. I’m freakin’ out, man.

The A’s do have an abundance of power arms in the bullpen. What that means is that they might be as good as the Angels get credit for being at the bottom of the staff. Octavio Dotel, Jario Garcia, Juan Cruz, and Kiko Calerio can all bring it stinky, where as guys like Tim Harikkula and Ricardo Rincon still throw hard, sans the gaudy K numbers that hurlers like Dotel and Cruz have been known to post. The X-factor is Japanese import Keiichi Yabu. He’s 37 and Japanese. Yee ha.

The only thing more enjoyable than watching dominant pitchers is watching borderline insane pitchers. Dotel is so intense that he might be the first pitcher to charge the plate since Kyle Farnsworth, without the nut-hugging uniform pants.

The biggest misconception about the A’s in the Beane era has been this is a team that didn’t care about defense at the expense of offense. The last few years, this has obviously not been true as the A’s have been at the top of the league in run prevention, and near the bottom in run production. This year, the trend should reverse a little.

Last year, Damian Miller had a decent, Damian Miller-esque season in Oakland. When he left for Milwaukee’s millions, and the dust settled, Jason Kendall was manning the dish for Oakland. While he’s expensive, and not likely to produce anything close to what he is paid, he only cost Mark Redman and Matt Lawton via Arthur Rhodes. For that, he will post an on base around .400 with occasional doubles power. Adam Melhuse will continue to be the best Adam Melhuse he can be.

The Athletics infield defense is really the only place on the diamond where the shift on the spectrum might be slanted back in the fun loving Giambi A’s days. Mark Ellis, a capable glove man of dubious hitting skill, will probably head bench ward for recently acquired Keith Ginter, who as far as I can tell only occasionally halts a ball headed for right field. He can hit a ton though. Scott Hatteberg stands to Ginter’s left, coming off a big year with the bat. Don’t worry Scotty, if you regress, Gammons will still love you.

On the left side of the infield, we have Eric Chavez, who is otherworldly. Basically, if Chavez rides his peak for five years and plays until he’s in his late-30s, you’re looking at a Hall of Famer. Bobby Crosby is no such thing, but he has power in spades. If he can push his batting average up 20 points, and draws a few more walks, Crosby will be a step below the elite shortstops. If he can hit .290, he’ll be the player Yankee fans think Jeter is.

The Oakland outfield is set up as a five-headed monster that might draw 400 walks between its members. Sure, Charles Thomas isn’t very good, as I mentioned before, and Bobby Kielty really shouldn’t ever play against a northpaw, but Swisher/Kotsay/Byrnes make up a pretty good, if unspectacular starting trio.

Kotsay started out last season playing impotent baseball. When April and May floated into June, he turned himself into the best non-Damon leadoff man in the American League. Kotsay will always be one of my favorite players, ever sense he was with the Marlins and threw out two guys at first base from right field. I also might have just made that up. On either side are Eric Byrnes, and Nick Swisher. Swisher is a nice looking ballplayer that I’m sure you will hear much about this year by virtue of him being named by Baseball America as the likely AL Rookie of the Year, and him being the crown jewel of the Moneyball draft. I’d talk about Byrnes, but I’m out of weed jokes. He might be the dumbest player in the league, also.

The lynchpin of the A’s offense is Eurbial Durazo. He was acquired for Jason Arnold, a minor leaguer that came to Oakland in the Jeff Weaver trade. In 2003, Durazo was disappointing, based against the unreal expectation of being Billy Beane’s Great White Whale. This all turned around in 2004. Durazo’s walk rate was essentially halved, but rather than fall into the trap of watching his productivity decline, it exploded. Gone were 44 walks, replaced by one home run, six doubles, a triple, and 21 singles. In more mathematic terms, he went from 259/374/430 to a more White Whale like 321/396/523. If these trends continue…aaaaaaaayyyyyeeeeeee.

The AL West will be a dogfight between the A’s and Angels again. Unfortunatly for the A’s, they are in year one of what should be a two or three year retooling. That means the margin for error is much smaller than it was last year. What that means is that the A’s might be looking at their first sub-90 win season since 1999. No matter, there will be plently of time for the Athletics to compile victories at the expense of weaker opponents. That time is later.

Prediction: 89-73

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Dan Meyer LHP
2. Huston Street RHP
3. Daric Barton C
4. Joe Blanton RHP
5. Nick Swisher OF
6. Omar Quintanella SS
7. Richie Robnett OF
8. Jairo Garcia RHP
9. Dan Johnson 1B
10. Dan Putnam OF