Atlanta Braves
2004: 96-66, 1st place NL East, lost NLDS to Houston (3-2)

Projected line-up:
Rafael Furcal SS
Marcus Giles 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Andruw Jones CF
Johnny Estrada C
Raul Mondesi RF
Adam LaRoche 1B
Brian Jordan LF

Starting Rotation:
Tim Hudson
John Smoltz
Mike Hampton
John Thomson
Horacio Ramirez

Closer:
Dan Kolb

Outlook:
The last time the Braves finished worse than first in their division, the author of this preview had not even entered first grade. The Braves look to continue their decade of dominance in the National League East, and most likely will face their toughest challenge in 2005. The Braves face a retooling season and are once against faced with the same questions surrounding them that have been asked for the past few seasons. Will this be the year the streak ends and another team finishes the year atop the NL East standings? The offseason was difficult for the Braves, who for some unknown reason failed to offer JD Drew arbitration, and lost starting pitchers Russ Ortiz to Arizona, Jaret Wright to New York, and Paul Byrd to Anaheim. John Schuerholz knew the pitching had to be addressed and acquired ace right-hander Tim Hudson from Atlanta for Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz and Dan Meyer. He then traded relief prospect Jose Capellan to Milwaukee for closer Dan Kolb, clearing the way for a return to the rotation for John Smoltz. The 2005 Braves have a lot of question marks, but this is nothing new for a franchise that has seen the departure of future Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux in the past two seasons.

Batting:
Setting the table for the Braves will be the speedy Rafael Furcal who not only possesses one of the strongest throwing arms in the Majors at shortstop, but can hit for average and cause havoc on the basepaths. And although there is no designated hitter in the National League, an area of concern for the Bravos will be assigning a designated driver for Furcal whose DUI charge had him servin’ hard time down in Cobb County Georgia.

Brian Giles’ little brother, better known as Marcus, will continue to establish himself as one of the best second basemen in baseball. Giles, who had an injury plagued 2004 features terrific plate discipline and hits for great power out of the 2 slot. Giles will be part of a dynamic top of the order that will set the table for Chipper Jones.

Chipper Jones saw a decline in production in 2004, finishing the season with a .248 batting average but continued to walk at a terrific rate and still maintained an on-base percentage of .362. Following a dreadful beginning to the season, Jones produced the way he has for much of his career with a .278/.391/.548 line. This year, the Braves will need Jones to hit like this consistently as they will be missing their most productive hitter from 2004, JD Drew.

Drew, in a boneheaded move by Schuerholz, was not offered arbitration following the 2004 season. The Dodgers signed Drew and the Braves did not receive the compensatory pick that they would have had they offered arbitration. Instead, they were left to replace Drew’s monster bat with over the hill outfielders Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan. Mondesi has struggled the past few seasons and has found himself on his 5th team since 2003. Mondesi battled personal problems in 2004 and a knee injury, but still has one of the strongest arms in baseball. Jordan is coming off two injury plagued seasons, including a forgettable 2004 campaign where he had an on-base percentage below .300 and an OPS in Pokey Reese territory. Unfortunately for the Braves, this combo will not come close to replacing Drew’s production and their offensive output will suffer accordingly.

Handling the catching duties will be Johnny Estrada, who Schuerholz acquired for Kevin Millwood. Estrada had a breakout 2004 season, making the all-star team and hitting .314. He will bat behind Andruw Jones, who in addition to being a terrific defensive centerfielder, can still hit for power and draw a walk. Jones’ batting average numbers are nothing spectacular being consistently in the .260-.280 range over the past three seasons.

The Braves offense will be an average offensive team, and that may not be enough for a pitching staff that will not live up to those of past years in Atlanta.

Pitching:
How does Leo Mazzone do it? For years he has been able to get the most out of his starters. Countless pitchers have experienced a career rejuvenation in Turner Field under the tutelage of Mazzone. John Burkett, Mike Hampton, Jaret Wright, John Thomson, the list goes on. This year, Mazzone has a legitimate ace in Tim Hudson. Hudson has very good control, features a sinking fastball, splitter and curveball and can spot each of them very well and throw them in any count. He has never been a big strikeout pitcher but with a good Braves infield defense and moving into a league with no designated hitter, Hudson could legitimately contend for the Cy Young. Hudson is the best pitcher that Mazzone has had to work with since Greg Maddux, and with the career path he’s on, he is a potential Hall of Famer.

John Smoltz returns to the rotation after 2 seasons as a lights-out closer. Smoltz who battled arm troubles in the rotation and in the closer’s role will be an integral part of this Braves staff. If Smoltz can remain healthy and pitch the way he has this spring and throughout his career, the duo of Hudson and Smoltz will be among the best in the league.
The remainder of the rotation is lackluster, but Mazzone seems to get the most out of his pitchers. Mike Hampton, who was lit up like a Christmas tree in Coors Canaveral has rebounded with two seasons with an ERA below the major league average. Mazzone also found a serviceable pitcher in former Rangers right-hander John Thomson who was beaten up regularly with in the American League. Thomson has always had impressive control, and has continued that trend for the Braves. I don’t know what it is that makes Mazzone such an effective pitching coach, but it works. And the Braves should enjoy another season of quality starting pitching from 1 through 5 in the rotation.

The Braves bullpen took a hit with Smoltz moving to the rotation, but that gap has been filled with Dan Kolb. Kolb pounds the strike zone consistently and features a heavy sinkerball. Kolb should enjoy much of the same success he did with the Brewers, and the Braves may not miss a beat moving from Smoltz to Kolb. Gone however, is Juan Cruz who was a valuable contributor to the Braves pen with 70 innings of 2.75 ERA baseball. That means Chris Reitsma will have a more prominent role and will get the majority of time in the 8th inning setting up Kolb. Reitsma, the former Red Sox prospect does a good job of keeping the ball in the park and rarely issues free passes. He throws hard and keeps the ball on the ground with a good sinker, giving the Braves two sinkerballers at the end of the game. Late inning home runs will be difficult to come by against this staff.

The names in the pitching staff will have people questioning whether or not the Braves have the pitching to contend in the NL East. However, the only name people should be concerned about in the Braves pitching staff is Mazzone. As long as he is the pitching coach, the Braves pitching will continue to keep the team in the game.

The Braves will likely face their toughest challenge in defending their streak of 13 consecutive division championships this season. The Mets are vastly improved with the additions of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, and the Marlins have improved with the addition of Carlos Delgado and have a terrific pitching staff if Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett can stay healthy. The Braves will likely be predicted to finish 3rd according to most, however you can never count out the Braves. This year though, I believe the streak ends.

Prediction:
83-79, 3rd place National League East

Top 10 prospects:
1. Andy Marte, 3b
2. Jeff Francoeur, OF
3. Brian McCann, C
4. Kyle Davies, RHP
5. Anthony Lerew, LHP
6. Jake Stevens, LHP
7. Luis Hernandez, SS
8. Kelly Johnson, OF
9. Jarod Saltalamacchia, C
10. Blaine Boyer, RHP