St. Louis Cardinals
2004: 105-57 1st in the NL Central, defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers (3-1) in the NLDS, defeated the Houston Astros (4-3) in the NLCS, lost to the Boston Red Sox (4-0) in the World Series

Projected Lineup:
SS David Eckstein
RF Larry Walker
1B Albert Pujols
3B Scott Rolen
CF Jim Edmonds
LF Reggie Sanders
2B Mark Grudzielanek
C Yadier Molina

Projected Rotation:
Mark Mulder
Matt Morris
Chris Carpenter
Jason Marquis
Jeff Suppan

Projected Closer:
Jason Isringhausen

Outlook:
Unfortunately for Cards fans, after storming through the regular season with the best record in baseball, and then out gunning both the Dodgers and Astros in the postseason, the Redbirds had the unfortunate fate of playing the victim in the Red Sox storybook run to the World Championship. It was not a fitting fate for a team that was far and away the best in baseball and also one of the most well-built teams in recent history. With a mix of homegrown players, smart free agent signings, and a couple of well-placed trades, GM Walt Jocketty built himself a team that was able to overcome age and manager Tony LaRussa’s obsessive-compulsive disorder that requires him to constantly change pitchers and figure out ways to use his roster less than optimally.

Jocketty was left with some major offseason decisions. The middle infielders, SS Edgar Renteria and 2B Tony Womack, were both free agents. “Veteran leader” and sometimes catcher Mike Matheny was also ready to walk. In many cities, a GM would bend over backwards to keep together a team that had just won 105 games. Jocketty, however, let Renteria sign in Boston for $40 million and replaced him with David Eckstein, recently departed from Anaheim. This sounds like a pretty poor move, and it is definitely a step down from Renteria to Eckstein, but not nearly as large a step down as people might think. Renteria has been fantastic against lefties, but has struggled against right-handers, putting up a .296/.340/.411 line over the past 3 years. Eckstein, signed for a good bit less than Renteria, has put up a .273/.340/.337 line over that same period of time. In other words, neither of them hits righties very well, but Eckstein should get on base just as much as Renteria did. Batting in front of the top foursome in baseball, that should be enough to keep the Cardinals moving offensively. 2B Tony Womack, coming off a career year in which he had a grand OPS+ of 93, was snapped up by the Yankees. Jocketty replaced him with Mark Grudzielanek, coming over from the rival Cubs. Grudzielanek and Womack are the same age (i.e. old), but Grudzielanek should be an offensive upgrade over Womack. Defensively, well, defensively the middle infield should be a train wreck. But at least that’s entertaining.

The rest of the lineup stays relatively unchanged from last season. The outfield of Sanders, Edmonds, and Walker is probably the best offensive outfield in baseball. It also now competes with the Giants for the most ancient outfield in baseball, as St. Louis is probably the only place that 35 year old Jim Edmonds would be the baby of the group. The age factor has to come into play at some point. I see no reason to that it will happen in 2005, but player production often drops off a cliff as players age, so it’s something that bears watching (especially since Reggie Sanders’ production has already started to tail off). The infield corners are manned by Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols. Both are probably the best players at their positions in the NL, and arguably, in baseball (not arguably for Pujols—he is the best). Rolen’s a good bet to regress a tiny bit in 2005, but he should still be the best 3B in the NL. Pujols is your odds on favorite to win the NL MVP with Bonds sidelined indefinitely. He’s also your odds on favorite to win the “Subject of the Best ESPN Sportscenter Commercial” ESPY at the next ESPY Awards. The third of the Flying Molina Brothers, Yadier, steps into the full time job as catcher. You might remember him as the guy yelling at Manny Ramirez during the World Series. He’s should be an upgrade over Mike Matheny, who flat out sucks.

Tony LaRussa is known well for using his bench prolifically, but he doesn’t have much to work with. Hector Luna is the utility infielder, with John Mabry backing up 1B and the OF. Roger Cedeno and That’s So Taguchi will be used to keep Walker and Sanders fresh. As a Cardinals fan, you have to hope that the injury fairy doesn’t come to visit St. Louis, as any significant injury is going to hurt badly. There’s simply no depth here.

The Cards’ biggest offseason move was the acquisition of Mark Mulder. Jocketty sent top prospect Daric Barton, young starter Dan Haren, and reliever Kiko Calero to the As to get Mulder. Pundits have often claimed that the Cardinals lacked a true #1 starter, with Matt Morris being more of a #2. The pundits will now shut up, but all may not be well. Mulder is a huge injury risk and saw his K/9 and K/BB ratios slip in 2004. If he can bounce back to his 2000-2003 levels, Mulder will be a very good pitcher in the NL. If not, I’d look for Harold Reynolds or John Kruk to start complaining about the Cards not having an ace around June. Matt Morris is coming off the worst season of his career, but if he’s healthy again, should return to his previous level as a solid, if unspectacular, starter. Chris Carpenter and Jason Marquis both had very good campaigns last year. Marquis finally started to payoff on some of that promise he showed in Atlanta, while Carpenter came back from missing all of 2003 (and much of 2002), pitching just like he did in Toronto 3 years ago. Jeff Suppan eats inning. It’s possible he eats children as well.

The bullpen is lead by Jason Isringhausen, recently signed to an extension. His story is well known by now (bust prospect reinvented) and he’s established himself as a solid closer. The rest of the pen is likewise solid and actually a bit less specialized than you’d expect out of a Tony LaRussa team. Ray King and Julian Tavarez are both very good relievers. Al Reyes and Cal Eldred are a bit more questionable, but certainly aren’t bad for your second tier of relievers. Mike Lincoln and Randy Flores are your third tier of guys—fungible arms at the end of the pen. The final guy in the pen might be prospect Carmen Cali, a lefty who put up stellar numbers in AA last year (47 Ks and 19 BBs in 46 IP).

The 2004 Cardinals scored a lot of runs. There’s no evidence that the 2005 Cardinals won’t due the same, especially playing a majority of their games against the mediocre competition in the NL Central. You think the Big 4 aren’t salivating at the thought of facing Eric Milton? The starting pitching should be improved over 2004, with Mark Mulder replacing Woody Williams, and the rest of the staff pretty much unchanged.

The only thing that can stop the Cardinals from winning the NL Central and being the favorite to win the NL is Father Time. He’s approaching, and approaching fast, but I think he’s probably a year off.

Prediction: 97-65

Top 10 Prospects:
1.Anthony Reyes RHP
2.Chris Lambert RHP
3.Adam Wainwright RHP
4.Brad Thompson RHP
5.Stuart Pomeranz RHP
6.Carmen Cali LHP
7.Blake Hawksworth RHP
8.Cody Haerther OF
9.Chris Duncan 1B
10.Brennan Ryan SS