Philadelphia Phillies
2004: 86-76, 2nd in the NL East

Projected Lineup:
CF Kenny Lofton
SS Jimmy Rollins
RF Bobby Abreu
1B Jim Thome
LF Pat Burrell
C Mike Leiberthal
2B Chase Utley
3B David Bell

Projected Rotation:
John Leiber
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Cory Lidle
Brett Myers

Closer:
Billy Wagner

Outlook:
The Phillies are run by a bunch of pricks. Or at least they were previous to the beginning of this season. While I’m sure Ed Wade is a nice enough fellow, field manager Larry Bowa was a classic red ass, and Dallas Green is perhaps one of the more reprehensible member of any baseball Ops team, unless you think that he was justified in questioning Scott Rolen’s manhood and leadership ability. In the two years after that trade, the Cardinals have been NL champions and the Philles have won 86 games each year, having David Bell as the third baseman. At least Green has his record of developing Generation K to lean back on…

Anyway, as Bob Dylan once warbled “egjowret wshgoiwnerowqihfdf sniwqhe”. That’s right, the times, they are a-changin’. Gone is Larry Bowa and his complete insanity, replaced by Mild-Mannered Charlie Manuel, known as the non-Hispanic looking Manuel in the AL Central in 2000. For the first offseason since he came back to Philly, Green has kept the ass attached to his face shut, as Ed Wade has been allowed to do his job in relative peace. Keeping with his tradition of acquiring as many 2/3 starters as possible, John Lieber was signed. Bucking his previous traditions, rather than giving someone like Steve Kline a 4 year/ $18 million contract, Wade has seemed content in just handing bullpen spots to young, live arms, like Ryan Madison, and Gavin Floyd. Heck, he even traded Felix Rodriguez to the Yankees for Kenny Lofton, presumably because they wanted that all-important 3rd centerfielder. Because God has a sense of humor, or perhaps because Kenny Lofton does, Lofton has neither played much, nor been silent this spring.

The Phillies rotation was stabilized this offseason, going from mediocre to stabley mediocre. John Leiber was the most effective pitcher on the Yankees staff last year, and he’s been penciled in at the top of the rotation. Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla round out the top three, and while they have been effective in the past, they have the same affliction as Leiber does. All three men have missed time due to arm ailments in the past year. That, of course, doesn’t bode will for the City of Brotherly Love, unless you live there and are a Braves fan or something.

Wolf has struggled with an elbow problem the last two seasons, after starting out very good in 2003. His 136.7 innings pitched in 2004 was the lowest since he was a rookie under Terry Francona in 1999. Padilla has a balky elbow too, and might require extra rest in order to be healthy. His inning numbers were his three-year-as-a-starter low as well. Leiber, as you know, is in his 2nd year coming off Tommy John surgery. He’s a better bet to stay healthy than Padilla or Wolf, but his mechanics put an awful lot of strain on his elbow. If there was a gun to my head, I would say Leiber would break down before the contract is over, but he should be fine for 2005.

At the back end of the rotation, Cory Lidle is still cashing in on his two good seasons in Oakland and his ability to propel a baseball somewhere near the homeplate area, and look back quicky without suffering whiplash. Brett Myers is an interesting case because he’s still young enough to have some upside (turned 24 in August) but he hasn’t yet reached the lofted “league average” status. He started out in the majors when he was 21, so he might put it all together, by striking out more guys, walking a handful less, and somehow keeping the ball in the ballpark, and turn into a top of the rotation guy. Or he might battle Cory Lidle for “Guy not replaced by Gavin Floyd in the rotation”. Myers might need a change of scenery, be it ball park or city.

The bullpen is a cast of various free agents of various skill levels (Cormier, Worrell, Terry Adams), and young guys the Phillies grew (Ryan Madison and Gavin Floyd). They are also held in the back by Billy Wagner, a gentleman that stands at 5’10” and throws somewhere in the low-300’s. He’s also coming off a season where he injured his groin and shoulder, neither which injury is good for someone who throws as hard as he does. Worrell provides good enough insurance for Wagner so that the bullpen shouldn’t take any major hits if someone goes down. Wade hasn’t yet met his bullpen utopia, but he might have one of the better ones in his tenure.

The Phillies locked up Mike Leiberthal a few years ago to catch for them going into the middle of the decade. Then he promptly tore his knee up. Immediately after trading for him in my fantasy league…quite literally the next day. He profiles as a second tier catcher, amongst the 5 or 6 that are 32-33 and starting everyday in the majors. He was essentially league average last year, and will probably continue to be league average until his career enters it’s death spasms. Sitting behind him as always is Garth Pratt. Party on Mike.

At first is Jim Thome, who was loudly praised by national media types as being the center of the Phillie lineup, despite quietly having a worse year than Bobby Abreu. You know what you will get with Thome, someone who kicks ass, takes names, and is one of the nicest guys in baseball, reportedly. Across from him is either Placido Polonco or David Bell, depending on Manuel’s fancy. Bell’s veteran leadership, and clubhouse presence will probably win out over Polonco’s superior ability to play baseball. Funny sport sometimes.

Jimmy Rollins continues to flash leather, and grab some bases, but in 2004 he did a few things different. The first was that he cut his strikeouts by 40, and he became the base stealer he was when he was but a young pup in 2001. He also hit for significant power for the first time in his major league stint. Rollins might have finally turned the corner into being one of the better shortstops in baseball. His keystone compadre seems to be Chase Utley, who has seemingly been a star in the making for his whole pro career. In the Majors, he’s shown some good pop, and no ability to get on base. I don’t know if this is true or not, but it might be interesting to see what skills players flash when they are promoted from utility guy to starter. Fun Utley fact…he’s three weeks younger than Rollins.

Bobby Abreu is a Hall of Famer in the making. Since he became a regular, he’s had 1 year with a BA below .300, 1 year with an on-base below .400, and 2 years with a sub-.500 slugging. He’s become a high-percentage base stealer, going 40/45 last year, he walks 100 times a year, hits bushels of doubles, and smaller bushels of home runs. He doesn’t ground into many double plays. His outfield play is goodish, I suppose. Basically, he’s the most underrated player in the game, which means soon he will be overrated because of people paying attention saying how underrated he is.

Quickley, Pat Burrell is running out of time to become the star he should be. Kenny Lofton, Marlon Byrd, and Jason Michaels make up one pretty good ballplayer.

Even more quickly, Larry Bowa is gone, and Charlie Manuel is the manager. The Phillies should win 90 game, but they will win 86 for the third straight year.

Prediction: 86-76

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Gavin Floyd RHP
2. Michael Bourn OF
3. Ryan Howard 1B
4. Cole Hammels LHP
5. Greg Golson OF
6. Jake Blalock OF
7. J.A. Happ LHP
8. Scott Mitchenson RHP
9. Nate Cabrera RHP
10. Scott Mathieson RHP