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By PiG, 3/18/2005 10:00 am

Minnesota Twins
2004: 92-70, 1st place AL Central, lost ALDS to New York 3-1

Projected line-up:
DH Shannon Stewart
C Joe Mauer
CF Torii Hunter
1B Justin Morneau
LF Lew Ford
RF Jacque Jones
3B Michael Cuddyer
SS Jason Bartlett
2B Luis Rivas

Projected Rotation:
Johan Santana
Brad Radke
Carlos Silva
Kyle Lohse
Joe Mays

Closer:
Joe Nathan

Outlook:
The 2005 Twins enter the season hoping to avenge last season’s bitter defeat at the hands of the Yankees. The Twins will showcase a brand new left side of the infield, replacing mainstays Corey Koskie and Christian Guzman with two new homegrown players – Michael Cuddyer and Jason Barlett. This offseason, Twins management proved to fans that they were committed to re-signing their players, and Brad Radke showed a tremendous amount of loyalty to the club when he rejected a multi-year offer with the Red Sox, to take a 2 year 18 million dollar contract with the Twins. The Twins return much of the same team that was capable of reaching the ALCS had it not been for Ron Gardenhire’s Grady Little-esque bullpen management, especially in Game 2. The Twins are easily the favorite in the American League Central and are talented enough to make a deep playoff run with Johan Santana and Radke at the top of their rotation, uber prospect Joe Mauer behind the plate, and a collection of flame throwers in the bullpen.

Hitting:
Offensively, the Twins feature a strong top of the order which is led by Pedro Martinez’ nemesis, and former Blue Jay Shannon Stewart. Stewart possesses a career .380 on-base percentage with doubles power and good speed, making him one of the best lead-off hitters in the game. Super prospect Joe Mauer will bat in the two-slot. In limited Major League experience Mauer has shown the ability to hit for average, good patience, and home run power. Mauer, at age 22, has plenty of room to keep growing and should live up to the enormous amount of hype that he has accumulated. Torii Hunter will again take his place in the 3rd spot of the order, after posting four straight seasons with 20 or more home runs. Canadian slugger Justin Morneau, who made Doug Mientkiewicz expendable for the Twins in 2004, will bat clean-up and provides a powerful stick in the heart of the order. Morneau hit 41 home runs between Rochester and Minnesota in 2004 and the Twins hope he can continue to show terrific power at the Homer Dome. Lew Ford, who many felt was deserving of an all-star nod in 2004 will bat 5th for the Twins. Ford, and underrated offensive player does nothing extraordinarily well, but can draw a walk, hit for average, and is one of 6 players at the top of the Twins line-up capable of 20 home runs. Jacque Jones, whom the Twins attempted to trade numerous times in the offseason, will bat 6th and play right field. Jones showed tremendous heart playing in the American League Divisional Series just days after the passing of his father, and responded well to the pressure with a .300 average and 2 home runs in the 4 game series. Jones certainly has plenty of room to improve the .254/.315/.427 line that he posted in 555 at-bats during the regular season. Rounding out the line-up is Michael Cuddyer, the utility man from 2004 who will replace Corey Koskie’s bat at third base, rookie Jason Barlett at shortstop, and light hitting Luis Rivas batting ninth at second base.

The Twins should have no trouble producing for a pitching staff that features the defending American League Cy Young winner and a shutdown bullpen.

Pitching:
Johan Santana continues to be the story of the Twins’ pitching staff and deservedly slow. After toiling in the bullpen for years, the Twins had a wake up call and thought that it may have been a good idea to let this guy start. It paid off, but knowledgeable fans wondered, what the hell took them so long? After a slow start, following an offseason shoulder surgery, Santana dominated hitters, going 13-0 after the all-star break, with a 1.21 ERA in 104.1 IP. Santana finished the season with 20 wins, 265 strikeouts and a league leading 2.61 ERA, and was a unanimous selection for the AL Cy Young. Santana features a mid 90’s fastball, a deceptive change-up that frequently leaves hitters frozen, and may be the best change-up in baseball – even better than that of Pedro Martinez, and a tight slider. Behind Santana are control freaks Brad Radke and Carlos Silva. Combined, Radke and Silva walked only 61 batters in a combined 422.2 innings pitched – the same amount Pedro Martinez walked by himself in 219 innings. The Twins’ top 3 definitely have terrific command of the strike zone and allows the Twins defense to be ready at all times. Kyle Lohse, who is nothing if not mediocre, and Joe Mays – who hopes to overcome numerous arm injuries and return to the form he had in 2001 that earned him a trip to the all-star game, will round out the Twins rotation that definitely appears to be top heavy.

The bullpen of the Twins may be the most intimidating bullpen in baseball, with seemingly every pitcher throwing in the mid to high 90’s. Closer Joe Nathan proved that his 2003 breakout season in San Francisco was no fluke with another overpowering season in 2004. After being acquired from the Giants for AJ Pierzynski, Nathan saved 44 games with a 1.62 ERA, yet unfortunately was best remembered for the controversy surrounding Ron Gardenhire’s managerial decision to keep Nathan in the 12th inning of Game 2 of the ALDS, despite throwing numerous pitches that night, and the night before. Also in the bullpen are right handers Juan Rincon, Grant Balfour, and Jesse Crain who also bring it in the mid 90’s. Lefty JC Romero rounds out the Twins bullpen. There is no doubt that the Twins bullpen is among the most feared in baseball.

The Twins continue to be the only legitimate contender emerging from the American League Central. Despite the Tigers willingness to open up their pockets and splurge on free agents Magglio Ordonez and Troy Percival, the Twins remain the cream of the crop in the Central, and make for a scary postseason match-up for either Boston or New York in the first round. Both the Red Sox and Yankees would dread a 5 game series where they would potentially see Johan Santana and Brad Radke twice each.

The Twins are one of four teams in the American League that could legitimately make it to the World Series.

Prediction: 93-69

Top 10 Prospects
1. Joe Mauer, C
2. Jason Kubel, OF
3. Francisco Liriano, LHP
4. JD Durbin, RHP
5. Jesse Crain, RHP
6. Kyle Waldrop, RHP
7. Anthony Swarzak, RHP
8. Matt Moses, 3B
9. Jason Bartlett, SS
10. Scott Baker, RHP

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By Sully,

Obviously, things are a bit slow with respect to the Sox. And since I don’t give a shit about the charade taking place on Capitol Hill, things are slow all around baseball. So stuff like Curt Schilling tossing an encouraging batting practice session qualifies as news these days.

Opening Day can’t get here quickly enough…

Comments (1)

By Sully, 3/17/2005 9:07 am

Some of the best baseball stories my father has told me were about Dick Radatz. He was the lone bright spot for some miserable Sox teams. Many of the best hitters in baseball were intimidated by him. Think Troy Percival but more real. Before it became fashionable for closers to sport a goatee, have a ferocious wind-up and mark triumph with an outward trademark demonstration, Radatz was the genuine item, mean-looking and flamboyant. What’s more, in his four full seasons with the Sox, Radatz averaged 135 innings and 152 strikeouts a season. He was said to have dominated Mickey Mantle, and accounts of some of his flashes of dominance are fascinating. So if you don’t know much about him, read up. He’s exactly the type of engrossing figure that makes baseball history what it is.

So long, Monster

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By Sully,

Let’s Go Quakers!!!

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By Sully,

Florida Marlins
2004: 83-79 3rd in the NL East

Projected lineup:
CF Juan Pierre
SS Luis Castillo
RF Miguel Cabrera
1B Carlos Delgado
3B Mike Lowell
C Paul Lo Duca
LF Jeff Conine
SS Alex Gonzalez

Projected Rotation:
A.J. Burnett
Josh Beckett
Dontrelle Willis
Al Leiter
Ismael Valdez

Closer:
Guillermo Mota

Outlook:
The Marlins could win anywhere from 70 to 90 games. Neither total would surprise me. The rosiest scenario – health across the board, a rejuvenated Al Leiter, a return to dominance by Carlos Delgado – and this team probably runs away with the National League East. The doomsday scenario – unhealthy Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, over-the-hill Al Leiter, flailing Carlos Delgado – and things are vastly different. The natural follow-up to this admittedly simplistic observation would be “well duh, what team can withstand such misfortune, anyway?” The answer is, “more than you probably think”. All you need is a roster with a little depth, guys that toil between replacement level and average, so that you can fill in here and there, especially where you are predictably thin or vulnerable. If Garret Anderson can’t go for the Angels, Juan Rivera fills in. If Wade Miller doesn’t pitch an inning and Curt Schilling experiences numerous setbacks with his ankle, in steps John Halama or Byung-Hyun Kim for the Sox. The Marlins haven’t covered themselves in this regard. If Josh Beckett goes down, Frank Castilla, under no circumstances, should be the answer. If Jeff Conine’s shoulder continues to nag or if he starts to just plain suck this year, then you can rest assured that Juan Encarnacion will make that offense sputter. The Marlins have about twelve or thirteen good baseball players, enough to win if they all perform to expectations and stay healthy. But best to equip yourself with more than twelve or thirteen in the likely event that one, two, three or seven of your contributors succumb to injury or under-perform.

It’s hard to say how this lineup will perform. Juan Pierre is just average, no matter how early he shows up for batting practice. Luis Castillo isn’t much better. In Miguel Cabrera, Delgado and Mike Lowell, they have a viable middle of the order but it drops off pretty quickly. The Conine-Encarnacion combo won’t get it done while Ol’ Blood N’ Guts Lo Duca will be good for about a .700 OPS and little more. I’ll never understand the contract he was handed this winter. Alex Gonzalez, a legitimately bad baseball player, rounds out the lineup. Three quality run producers, three average ballplayers and two crappy ones make for about an average offense, and that’s before you adjust for injury time. Given Fish reliance on the wearing and tearing Delgado and Conine, I think you can expect to see a below average offense on aggregate by year’s end.

The starting pitching, if healthy, should be a vastly different story. In Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett and Dontrelle Willis, the Marlins boast a potentially dominating front of the rotation, albeit one bearing quite a bit of risk. Burnett looks to complete his first full season since 2002 and Beckett has never thrown 160 innings in a season. Willis will have to battle fits of inconsistency if he is to settle into the bona fide front-man he has the potential to be. At the back end, Al Leiter and, gulp, Ismael Valdez will hold down the four and five spots as much as Al Leiter and Ismael Valdez can hold down anything these days. Leiter will be fine rotation filler if healthy but you have to wonder about what’s going to happen in that 5-slot. Remember, Larry Beinfest and Jack McKeon will be calling on the medium pitch JUGS machine Frank Castillo should Ismael Valdez’s ineffectiveness wear thin. It’s a rotation that badly lacks depth but it is also a rotation that will stand a good chance to win 3 out of 5 days and that’s saying something.

The bullpen sucks. Guillermo Mota and a bunch of non-factors including the six-fingered Antonia Alfonseca, homophobe Todd Jones, John Riedling, Tinky Winky, Tim Spooneybarger, Nate Bump, Sleepy and Jim Mecir. Mota is a legitimate live arm that will be counted upon to nail down saves. This of course means there will be a whole slew of nights when Mota isn’t used when he should be (like when the Fish are losing a tight one or in tie games) and nights when they go to him when Spooneybarger or Tinky Winky would do just fine (like when they have a 3-run lead in the ninth).

The Marlins posted a 80-82 W3 record last year and even though they added Carlos Delgado, I think that particular area of improvement is more than offset by the losses of Carl Pavano and Armando Benitez, Florida’s two best pitchers from 2004. Further, now that Larry Bowa is out in Philly and the Mets plan on taking 2005 seriously, their immediate competition has stiffened up. And yet there is also hope in the form of a healthy A.J. Burnett making a contract push and a maturing Josh Beckett hopefully turning in a full season. As stated, if it all goes right, it could be another banner year in South Florida. If even a little of it goes wrong, this thing goes awry pretty quickly.

Prediction: 77-85

Top 10 Prospects:

1. Scott Olsen LHP
2. Jeremy Hermida OF
3. Jason Stokes 1B
4. Taylor Tankersley, LHP (I saw him pitch down the Cape, fwiw)
5. Chris Resop, RHP
6. Josh Willingham, C-1B
7. Yorman Bazardo, RHP
8. Jason Vargas, LHP
9. Adam Bostick, LHP
10. Eric Reed, OF

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By Mullet, 3/16/2005 8:17 am

Texas Rangers
2004: 89-73 3rd in the NL West

Projected Lineup:
2B Alfonso Soriano
SS Michael Young
3B Hank Blalock
1B Mark Teixeira
RF Richard Hidalgo
DH Kevin Mench
CF Laynce Nix
LF David Dellucci
C Rod Barajas

Projected Rotation
Kenny Rogers
Ryan Drese
Chan Ho Park
Chris Young
Joaquin Benoit

Projected Closer:
Francisco Cordero

Outlook:
Coming out of nowhere, the Texas Rangers made the AL West the most interesting division in baseball in 2004. Paced by the 4th most prolific offense in baseball, the Texas youngsters (the average age of the offense was 26) put enough crooked numbers up on the scoreboard to make up for the fact that their starting pitching featured the now infamous John Wasdin throwing 65 innings at a robust 74 ERA+. It takes some sort of bizarro world skill to give up 18 homers in 65 innings. That’s the sort of quality the Rangers got out of their starting pitching.

Logic would dictate that John Hart look to improve the starting pitching in 2005. With no significant free agents and not a single offensive regular entering the season over 31, the Rangers went out and signed starting pitcher …. Pedro Astacio? To borrow from the now ubiquitous parlance of the internet: WTF!?

Instead of getting into the bidding on any number of starting pitchers to improve the Rangers shaky rotation—pitchers ranging from Kevin Millwood to Jose Lima or even the much maligned Derek Lowe—Hart acquired outfielder Richard Hidalgo and the corpse of Sandy Alomar, Jr. Hidalgo is a good bet to bounce back from a subpar season, and will likely thrive in the cozy confines of whatever they’re calling the Ballpark in Arlington these days. Alomar Jr. is a good bet to get propped up like Bernie from Weekend at Bernie’s, though I’m not sure Hart was able to acquire Jonathan Silverman.

And that was pretty much it for the Rangers off season. In Hart’s defense, he’s betting on the continued maturation of his young team, which could be adding another potentially huge bat in Adrian Gonzalez. Still, the Rangers have a few things to be concerned about in 2005.

Offensively, the Texas Rangers are a going to put up anywhere between 850 and 900 runs in 2005. The infield of Teixeira, Blalock, Young, and Soriano could be the best offensive infield in all of baseball. Teixeira and Blalock are likely to build on their already stellar numbers from 2004 (when Teixeira may have been one of the most underrated players in baseball). Michael Young is one of the most fun guys in baseball to watch, but he will probably regress a bit from his 106 OPS+ last season. He’ll still be one of the better offensive shortstops, though he’d fit better offensively and defensively at 2B, where his arm wouldn’t be nearly as much of a concern. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Hart has yet to pull the trigger on sending Alfonso Soriano out of Arlington. Soriano is still a solid offensive player, but after tearing up the league in 2002 and 2003, American League pitchers and catchers finally got together and realized that he’ll swing at just about anything low and away. Soriano’s approach resulted in a lot more squibs, lowering his average, OBP, and slugging last season. Now that his true age is known, it’s not very likely we’ll see an improved version of Soriano in 2005. For Ranger fans, that’s frustrating, but it still leaves them with a guy who’ll be, at worst, a league average hitter at 2B. Not a bad weak link.

Across the outfield, the Rangers will play Dellucci or Mench in left (with the other at DH), Laynce Nix in center, and the newly acquired Hidalgo in right. Dellucci and Mench are known entities at this point, guys with decent pop and average plate discipline. Nix is a solid defensive player who needs to work on his approach at the plate to seriously reduce his strikeouts and get his OBP up over .300 to be a value to his team. The Ranger bench is pretty average, though it does have one of my favorite players in Gary Matthews, Jr. “Little Sarge” gives the Rangers some depth and allows them to hedge on their bet on Laynce Nix.

The Texas pitching staff looks nothing like the 1993 staff, manned by such great icons as Nolan Ryan, Charlie Liebrandt, and a young Kenny Rogers. The 2005 staff instead has Ryan Drese, Chan Ho Park, and an old Kenny Rogers. That doesn’t bode well. It looks even more grim when you realize that Rogers had a pretty great season as a 39 year old and he has to start falling apart at some point right? Ryan Drese had a breakout season in 2004 and the Rangers certainly think he can reproduce it in 2005 as the staff ace in production, if not in name. The rumors out of spring training are that Chan Ho Park has started to use a 2-seam fastball and that the team hopes the 2-seamer will help Park keep the ball down, allow him to work inside on hitters without beaning them, and maybe allow Park to actually be moderately effective this season. Probably not, but hey, they’re only paying him about $14 million. The bottom part of the rotation will be used to give some of the Rangers’ former and current prospects a chance. Joaquin Benoit and Chris Young will likely get the first shot, but top 10 prospect Juan Dominguez is said to be pushing for a job in camp.

Francisco Cordero lead the Rangers’ bullpen in saves, but similarly named Frank Francisco lead the team in chairs thrown at blowhard A’s fans. With a host of other pitchers (Doug Brocail, Ron Mahay, Carlos Almanzar, and Brian Shouse to name a few), the Ranger bullpen flew completely under the radar as quite possibly the best bullpen in baseball. It is hard to expect a similarly grand performance out of them in 2005, but there’s no reason to think they’ll implode unless Buck Showalter wears a deep path between his dugout and the mound.

Ranger fans can expect more of the same in 2005. The offense should be productive, the starting pitching pretty awful, and the bullpen asked to put out a lot of fires. Unfortunately for Texas, the Angels and Athletics didn’t lose enough for the Rangers to make up any ground, and Seattle has improved their anemic offense enough to give the Rangers a battle for 3rd in the AL West. I still believe that the Rangers will finish out of the cellar, but that is probably little consolation for Ranger fans, whose hopes for a division title rose when the Angels spent the GNP of Ecuador on Orlando Cabrera and Steve Finley without improving their pitching, and the Athletics traded away two of the Big 3. Those hopes were dashed in a swift and devastating blow when the Rangers major pitching acquisition was “WTF!?” Pedro Astacio. That’s an “America’s Funniest Home Videos” style kick in the balls.

Prediction: 83-79

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Thomas Diamond RHP
2. Ian Kinsler SS
3. John Danks LHP
4. Juan Dominguez RHP
5. Joaquin Arias SS
6. Chris Young RHP
7. Adrian Gonzalez 1B
8. John Hudgins RHP
9. Vincent Sinisi OF
10. Jason Botts 1B

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By Jimmy, 3/15/2005 3:46 pm

Cleveland Indians
2004: 80-82 3rd in the AL Central

Projected lineup:
2B Ronnie Belliard
SS Jhonny Peralta
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
RF Juan Gonzalez
1B Ben Broussard
LF Grady Sizemore
3B Casey Blake
CF Coco Crisp

Projected Rotation:
Kevin Millwood
CC Sabathia
Jake Westbrook
Cliff Lee
Jason Davis

Closer:
Rafael Betancourt

Outlook:
There was a time, in the long-long ago, when the Indians won five straight division titles, and six of seven. The first year in this run featured an incredible 100 win season, out of 144 games. Those days were ravaged by free agency and Dolan penny pinching.

The Indian’s Paradigm at that time was to built from within, and when the prospects first show signs of becoming good major league players, lock them up long term so you can get a few good years out of them before they become expensive. Unfortunately for the Indians, then-GM John Hart lost focus with this plan, and ignored the farm while the team was competing. The end result was when Messers Belle, Ramirez, and Thome came to term; they chased the buck with no suitable reserve in the pipeline. Oh yeah, and they traded Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon.

Now the Indians are climbing back up the rebuilding apex. Omar Vizquel was the lone hold out from those great (albeit championshipless) teams, and now he’s busy being the 4th youngest person in the Giants starting lineup. The oldest position player for the Indians in 2005 will be Casey Blake at 31. Two studly-rookies look ready to bust onto the scene on the Cuyahoga, going by the names Sizemore and Peralta. Things are starting to look up for the brothers of Wahoo again.

Looking at that starting line up, you see that where it lacks in experience (average age: 26), it makes up for in smashing the ball like I’ve beaten this hitting cliché into the ground. The rooks are protected by a starting lineup that had only two below average hitters last year, the departed Vizquel, and the injured Jody Gerut.

In the center of this Best Offense West of the Hudson, is Victor Martinez. The 26-year-old catcher is a hitter that happens to catch occasionally. This is useful so that CC Sabathia doesn’t have to chase after balls as they hit the back stop, giving him a heart-attack by the 6th pitch of his first start. Martinez almost slugged .500 last year while donning the tools of ignorance. This was the 3rd best mark of all major league catchers (behind IRod and JLo). His only real weakness is that he can be run on, only catching 25% of base stealers last year. This is a weakness because he isn’t yet old enough to have a reputation around the league as being the “hardest working catcher in baseball” and thus, his below average arm can’t be excused by Jerry Remy.

The Indians got Ben Broussard from the Reds for Russ Branyan. You think they’d redo this trade? Broussard very, very quietly put up great numbers last year for the Indians in his age 27 year. If he can continue to build on that, he might actually get noticed! Until last year, the only people that could tell Broussard and Casey Blake apart were their mothers and Twins fans. I promise this is the last time I will mention Casey Blake.

Filling out the infield vets is the rotund Ronnie Belliard. Belliard broke out with a fantastic rookie year in 1999 in Milwaukee. And like most things in Milwaukee, he slowly deteriorated under tons of various wursts and cheese curd. After gaining something in the neighborhood of 30 lbs, and earning a reputation as a malcontent, the Brewers cut him lose. The Rockies signed him and found that a 220 lbs 2b isn’t the best thing to have, especially since Belliard is only 5’8”. They cut tubby loose and he was signed by the Indians and miraculously found his stroke again. He hit 48 doubles once escaping from known pitcher-haven Colorado. Where as his walk rate isn’t quite where it was back in his younger days, he can still help set a table for Martinez and Hafner.

In the outfield, Coco Crisp will continue to do Coco Crisp things, which are mainly run fast, have surprising, pop, and not walk enough. On the plus side, he is a menace on the base paths, because of his inability or unwillingness to use his speed as a weapon rather than a burden.

Juan Gonzalez is back to clog up base paths, right field, and the lineup, homering enough to keep Eric Wedge from stabbing him to death with his lineup pencil. Fear not, Indians fans, for Juan Gone will do something like sneeze, or flex in front of the mirror and pull a back muscle, rendering him DL-ward for the rest of the season.

Last year the Indians had a goodly amount of offense come out of Texas cast-away Travis Hafner. Hafner had the 10th best on base, and the 10th best slugging percentage in baseball last year. That’s right…in baseball. Media types don’t take notice of things like that because guys like Hafner just do their jobs quietly. The only thing that’s keeping me from penciling Travis in as an annual 300/410/590 guy is that he has a bad habit of getting hurt and missing 20 or so games.

Breaking into the Tribe lineup this year are Jhonny Peralta and Grady Sizmore. The usual caveats of first year players exist, but either one has the ability to be the Rookie of the Year in the AL this year, despite the lack of eligibility of both men. What I’m saying is that they are good. Anyway, Peralta was the MVP in the International League last year at the ripe old age of 22. Peralta first was pressed into duty for the Indians a few years ago when Vizquel got hurt. He showed ability with the glove…enough to assume that he will be a good enough shortstop until he starts to lose his speed. His walk rate is acceptable, and I don’t know if he’ll ever have 20 home run power. Conversely, Sizemore was part of GM Mark Shapiro’s ample booty for trading Bartolo Colon’s ample booty out of Cleveland. Grady is the prototype Young Stud Outfielder, right down to his membership in the Gabe Kapler fan club. What keeps Sizemore from being Kapler is that the Babe couldn’t hit righties. Sizemore should have no such problem.

Benches are boring no? Hey, they still have Josh Bard.

The Indians rotation is one of those dicey propositions that I usually call high-risk/high-reward. Unfortunately for you Tribers, the fate of the central rests on the shoulders of Kevin Millwood. If he has one of his Kevin Millwood years, where he pitches like a 4th starter rather than the #1 he was in 1997 and 2002, than the Indians will be looking up at the Twins again. CC Sabathia is a legitimate stud, though his low K-rate and his occasional arm problems are a bit disconcerting. On the other hand, he looks like a tall, black Mickey Lolich, and that’s always fun to have on your team.

At the bottom of the rotation, there is the somewhat insane Jason Davis, who is basically as fungible talent as you’ll find in a rotation. Jake Westbrook is finally showing the promise the Indians wanted when they got him from the Yankees in the Justice trade. Cliff Lee was supposed to be the best lefty in the American League now. I guess being Peter Gammon’s love child isn’t enough to make you more than a #4 starter. It’s still too early to give up on Lee, since he’s only 26, but the chances of him becoming an ace are running out.

The only thing that keeps the Indians from sitting on the chest of the Central and administering the forced tea-bag is the fact that their bullpen is shit. Guys like Rafael Betancourt are nice enough to have, but he’s not good enough to be the best arm on a contending team. The have three young guys with Spanish first names beginning with F and last names starting with C. Fernando Cabrera, Fausto Carmona, and Francisco Cruceta. That’s all I have on them. Scott Sauerbeck is back!

The Indians are one of those young, fun teams to watch. They will probably struggle at the beginning of the year, and by June, officially reach the level of “feisty”. They will be official “Pains in the Ass” by August. By September 2006, they will be the team no one wants to play in the playoffs, while the Twins wonder how they lost with Johan Santana.

Prediction: 83-79

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Adam Miller RHP
2. Michael Aubrey 1B
3. Franklyn Gutierrez OF
4. Ryan Garko C
5. Grady Sizemore OF
6. Brad Snyder OF
7. Fernando Cabrera RHP
8. Jeremy Sowers LHP
9. Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
10. Nick Pesco RHP

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By Jimmy, 3/14/2005 8:48 am

Seattle Mariners (by Chris Klemmer)
2004: 63-99 .389 4th PLace in AL West

Projected lineup:
RF Ichiro Suzuki
LF Randy Winn
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Richie Sexson
2B Bret Boone
DH Raul Ibanez
CF Jeremy Reed
C Miguel Olivo
SS Pokey Reese

Projected Rotation:
Jamie Moyer
Joel Pinero
Bobby Madritsch
Ryan Franklin
Gil Meche

Closer:
J.J. Putz

Outlook:
Imagine you are about to bake a cake and you go to the supermarket to get the ingredients. You bring them home and are about to make the cake when it appears that everything you bought- the eggs, milk, cake mix- is all rotten and old. So in an attempt to fool family and friends, you make the cake anyway. You bring the cake to the function you were going too and it ends up killing your grandmother.

That’s kind of what happened to the 2004 Mariners.

The good news? It’s 2005 baby!

The Mariners went out and spent a ton of cash on Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre but sadly ran out of money and are stuck with Pokey Reese at short. The Mariners are like that friend you have that gets paid on Friday but by Monday he is broke and asking everyone to borrow 20 bucks until Friday.

HITTING:
I know the Mariners play in Safeco but they still had the worst Slugging percentage in the AL last year. The good news is that John Olerud is out of baseball, Rich Aurilila is Ken Griffey Jr’s caddy in Cincy, Edgar Martinez wisely hung it up and with the addition of Beltre, they don’t have to play Scott Speizio (his band name is Sandfrog!) any more.

The bad news is that Pokey Reese is playing everyday for this team.

Catching will be fine with Olivo and Dan “The Man” Wilson sharing time. Neither are good at all but Olivo has power potential and Dan Wilson won’t kill you.

At first, if Sexson is healthy, he could hit 35-40 homers in Seattle which would really be something. No Seattle player has hit over 35 homers in a season since Bret Boone hit 37 in 2001.

Bert Boone is a decent enough second baseman that was hampered by nagging injuries last year and still had a good year for his position.

I do think signing Adrian Beltre was a really nice pickup for the M’s. This is a team that when they brought up prospects, they called a 28 year old named “Bucky”. They did get the fantastic Jeremy Reed in the Freddy Garcia trade but this team didn’t have many hitting prospects and were able to snag a fine one in Reed. Adding Beltre will be only 26 this season and is a nice pickup.

Obviously Beltre has only had the one great season last year. But he has also been very young and was playing in L.A. It’s funny how shit works. Everyone calls Carlos Pena a young hitter who needs to find his way and he is a year older then Beltre.

Pokey Reese may very well be the worst everyday player in baseball and should he hold on to that starting spot in Seattle. They also have a 21 year old named Jose Lopez who had a huge year in AAA (.295/.342/.505) and then sucked ass in the bigs (.232/.263/.367). If I was a Mariners fan, I’d rather see Lopez get playing time and get accustomed to the majors rather then watch Pokey Reese impress only Joe Fans and then promptly get hurt.

In the outfield you got Randy Winn, Jeremy Reed and Ichiro. Randy Winn may be the most boring player in baseball. He does nothing well and nothing poorly. Due to his boring, boring nature I’ve decided to give you some Randy Winn Fun Facts:

-Randy Winn was an original Devil Ray playing 109 games for them in 1998.
-Randy Winn was drafted by the Florida Marlins
-Randy Winn once killed a man with his bare hands. A burglar snuck into his house to steal some rare Beatles 8 tracks that win collected and when he saw Randy Winn he tried to stab him with a Phillips head Screwdriver. Winn jumped over the man and in mid air karate kicked the screwdriver away. Winn then punched through the robbers chest and pulled out his still beating heart.
-Randy Winn weighs 193 pounds.

Jeremy Reed is a fun player to watch in Center. He hit over .400 in 2003 for Birmingham- AA. I saw him play there and he was outstanding. He had a tough time really getting going in AAA lat year but really showed his stuff in a cup of coffee with Seattle with a .470 OBP in 58 At Bats.

Ichiro is Ichiro. I think he is insanely overrated but he is still a great contact hitter.

Raul Ibanez is the DH but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bucky Jacobson’s power lead him to getting a lot of time at DH. Ibanez is a stronger, slower version of Randy Winn. The Mariners also now have the most boring manager in baseball in Mike Hargrove.

The bench will have Scott “Sandfrog” Speizio, Willie Bloomquist and, hopefully, Homeless Ricky Gutierrez who is with the team as a non-roster player.

PITCHING:
Jamie Moyer is going to be 42 this year. His first team was the 1986 Cubs. Greg Maddux and Rafeal Palmerio were also on that club. Imagine if they kept them around all these years? Also on that team: Terry Francona, Hall Of Famer Ryne Sandberg, Hall Of Famer Dennis Eckersley, Lee Smith and Ron Cey. So Jamie Moyer was a teammate of Ron Cey. How fucked up is that?

If Joel Pineiro is healthy, he is one of the better starters in the AL. If he is still hurt, the Mariners can call it a season right there.

Bobby Madritsch was another one of those “young” players they called up last year. He’ll be 29 this year. He could have a fine season if continues what he did last year but I doubt he will. He’ll probably flame out once guys get good scouting reports on him. But we’ll see.

Ryan Franklin, Gil Meche and non-roster Aaron Sele fill out the last two spots. Sele hasn’t had an ERA under 4.89 since 2001. Ryan Franklin is 32 and went 4-16 with a 4.90 ERA last year. Gil Meche is always hurt.

Everyday Eddie Guardado has been anything but since coming to Seattle. He’s more like Somedays Eddie. J.J. Putz is an option to close I guess but this bullpen is pretty thin anyway and they really need Putz to be a set-up man if they want to have a nice season.

Shiggy Hasegawa and Julio Mateo need to play much better. Can Rafeal Soriano help at all this season? Ron Villone might be the best long reliever in baseball. They have decent pitching possibilites in AAA with guys like Scott Atchison, Travis Blackley, George Sherrill and others, but can they breakout?

The Mariners will be better then they were last year. But not good enough to make any sort of difference in the AL West.

They have a better chance of being the most boring team in baseball then finishing .500.

Prediction: 79-83

Top 10 Prospects (by Jeff):
1. Felix Hernandez LHP
2. Jeremy Reed OF
3. Shin-Soo Choo OF
4. Matt Tuiasosopo SS
5. Clint Nageotto RHP
6. Chris Snelling OF
7. Adam Jones SS
8. Asdrubal Cabrera SS
9. Wladimir Balentien OF
10. Jamal Strong OF

Comments (4)

By Jimmy, 3/13/2005 2:47 pm

Houston Astros
2004: 92-70 2nd in the NL Central, Lost to the St Louis Cardinals 4-3 in the NLCS

Projected lineup:
LF Craig Biggio
2B Chris Burke
1B Jeff Bagwell
3B Morgan Ensberg
RF Jason Lane
SS Adam Everett
C Brad Ausmus
CF Willy Taveras

Projected Rotation:
Roy Oswalt
Roger Clemens
Andy Pettitte
Brandon Backe
Tim Redding

Closer:
Brad Lidge

Outlook:
Fresh off the signings of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte last year, the Astros were primed to make a run at the World Series. That, of course, happened after the acquisition of Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman having one of the quietest great seasons ever, and exorcizing the specter of Jimy Williams from their ranks.

There will likely be no such run this year. The Astros have some good top-of-the-rotation pitching, and two interesting bottom of the rotation guys, and a strong bullpen, led by Eric-Gagne-Lite closer Brad Lidge. However, their offense will be pretty anemic after finding that Lance Berkman could miss anywhere from six weeks to six months of the season after tearing his ACL playing in a WNBA pro-am event. Not only that, Biggio is coming off what will probably be his Last Good Season, and Bagwell is also in steep decline. And they lost Carlos Beltran to the Mets. The Astros legitimately might have four automatic outs in their lineup this season.

To make matters worse in Houston, they have $18 million tied up in Roger Clemens. While it is accurate to say that Clemens is the best pitcher to ever play in Houston, he’s at the wrong time in his career to be commanding the most money any pitcher has ever made in a season, especially for a team that cries middle-classedness, like the Astros do. To make matters worse, the original arbitration demand, and counter-proposal were based on a sixth Cy Young award that was given to the Rocket more because his name is Roger Clemens than because of actually deserving the award (the second time this has happened. Clemens owes Mike Mussina or Tim Hudson his 2001 Cy.) Also, for all the claims that Clemens puts the asses in the seats, the Astros drew an average of 1600 more people to games that Raga pitched. Is that worth even $8 million above what he is probably worth?

Now that is all out of my system, Clemens is legitimately still a top starter in the league. The tandem he and Roy Oswalt create at the top of their rotation is among the best in baseball. If you add in the questionably healthy Andy Pettitte, that creates a top three that would be hard to beat in any short series, or any other pitching=wins cliché you want to toss in there.

As far as the bottom goes, Tim Redding was the man in 2003, being one of the best pitchers in the National League that was completely ignored. I’m semi-ignoring the fact he was horrible in 2004. The last man in this rotation is Brandon Backe who at this time a few years ago was trying to hang on as an outfielder in the Devil Rays system. The fact that he wasn’t able to is probably enough to justify a move to the mound or to working the weekend shift at Sears, but he was actually pretty successful last year in the spot starting/long relief spot. He even carved out a nifty niche by winning a few playoff games. Of course, this will mean articles like “Watch out for Brandon Backe!” in Sports Illustrated in early May if he’s 3-1 2.20. If that happens, you can pencil in his final numbers to be in the 9-13 5.40 range.

Brad Lidge was tossed into the closers role last year after being Octavio Dotel’s set up man. After Dotal was adeptly turned into a shiny Beltran, Lidge grabbed the saves by their haunches and humped them into submission. Since Lidge took over on June 24th, he posted 28 saves, a 1.48 ERA, and struck out in the neighborhood of 23,143 men. The rest of the bullpen rounds out with other interesting arms like Chad Qualls, Peter Munro, and Mike Gallo. Not interesting at all really, but decent enough pitchers. New GM Tim Purpura even brought in AARP member John Franco so Roger Clemens has someone to play canasta with on road trips.

Things are much bleaker standing at the dish. When Berkman was lost until May, their outfield is made up of an aging/defensive monstrosity in left with Craig Biggio, a one-time prospect who never got a chance in right with Jason Lane, and a fast guy that has decent on base ability and no power prospect in center named Willy Taveras. That really isn’t going bring back memories of the Berkman/Hidalgo/Alou outfield of 2001. Hell, that isn’t really much better than Mejias/Warwick/Spangler outfield in 62. Unlike the Colt 45’s outfield in those days, this one will be relieved when Berkman trots out to left for the first time. The one thing that will keep the Stros’ outfield afloat while waiting for Berkman is Jason Lane’s ability to hit now that he has a job essentially handed to him. While in the minors, Lane hit pitching both hard and often. However, since his prospect label was rubbed off by Jimy Williams playing such people like Orlando Merced, he’s never really gotten at bats enough to see if he can be a useful outfielder. Now at age 28, and likely to double his career at bat output, he would do well not to become Morgan Ensberg redeux.

The shine of offense isn’t much brighter once you hit the dirt. Jeff Bagwell has played well, but his overall production is merely an afterthought compared to his heyday. His power is slowly deteriorating as he slides into his late thirties as his contact rate drop. Within the next few years, he’ll be both putting up Mark Grace power numbers and playing first for the Nationals.

Around the keystone, you have a rookie and a proven veteran. Chris Burke, who spent last year making PCL pitchers cry. As the heir-apparent to Biggio, Burke will have some unfair expectations to live up to. Burke is 25 this season, so the Hall of Fame will likely be a reach for him, but he’s solid enough, both with bat and glove, to not make the Biggio comps laughable. On the other side of him is Adam Everett (or depending on Phil Garner’s mood, Jose Vizcaino). Both gentlemen have two things in common. They are veterans and they can’t hit. No matter, they’ll get a combined 600 at bats anyway.

The Morgan Ensberg enigma is entering year three now. Handed the third baseman’s job last year, Ensberg struggled to hit and eventually lost his job to Mike Lamb. Once Jimy was shown the gate, Ensberg was given the job back, but still struggled with the bat and glove. Basically, the reason he was out there was because he wasn’t Mike Lamb. Rewind a bit more and you see Ensberg in part-time play hitting .291/.377/.530. I really don’t know what to expect from Ensberg from here on in, but something tells me if I was an Astros fan, I would be throwing my remote control a lot.

Brad Ausmus would make me break my control. The fact that he is still an everyday catcher in the majors makes be not only believe there is a God, but he was a crappy hitting catcher in Little League. Then again, I suppose creating existence leaves very little time to learn how to hit a curve ball.

The Astros enter 2005 with a shaky lineup and a nice pitching staff. The question is, do they have enough fire power to over throw a Cardinals team that received Mark Mulder and has four players in the top 3 of their position in the National League? One thousand times no. The Astros will struggle to hold off the Cubs in the central. Expectations are a bitch, and this Houston team is ill-equipped to handle them.

Prediction: 85-77

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Chris Burke 2B
2. Mitch Einerston OF
3. Ezquiel Astacio RHP
4. Matt Albers RHP
5. Fernando Nieve RHP
6. Hunter Pence OF
7. Ben Zobrist SS
8. Willy Taveras OF
9. Troy Patton LHP
10. Taylor Buchholz RHP

Comments (1)

By Sully, 3/11/2005 5:14 pm

Scott Miller penned a trainwreck up on the front page of CBS Sportsline. It’s another in a long line of fact-ignoring, mud-flinging, ignorant attacks from a host of famous columnists this offseason. I’ll take it bit by bit.

But even then, the Dodgers infield defense is significantly worse than it was last year following general manager Paul DePodesta’s winter ice sculpture.

Really? At third, Adrian Beltre was excellent; there is no doubt about that. But Jose Valentin is coming off a gold-glove type season at shortstop. Much will be made of the difficulties of switching positions but pay it no mind. If you can excel at shortstop, you can excel at third base. At worst, this change will be a defensive wash. Jeff Kent replaces Alex Cora at second. Impressions aside, if you can find some real evidence that Cora is significantly better than Kent defensively, I would like to see it. Given that their defense is comparable and Kent’s stick represents an enormous offensive upgrade, this swap is a definite net upgrade and even a possible defensive one. At first, Hee Seop Choi will get the majority of the time, replacing Shawn Green. Choi appears to be a slightly above average fielder while Green really wasn’t any good at first.

So at one position, at least, where Adrian Beltre bloomed into one of the game’s best players in 2004, the Dodgers will settle for adequate defensively.
Oh boy, is this going to be fun.

Smarmy is unbecoming when smart people act that way. But for dumb people, smarmy can be more fun than you can shake a stick at. I love when ignorant people are really opinionated. At the very best, the evidence that Jose Valentin will be a defensive downgrade is flimsy.

Most of the moves (DePodesta’s offseason moves) made about as much sense as Tommy Lasorda in a vegetarian restaurant.

Oh that Scott Miller is a real cut-up.

Their infield defense, barring a shipment from Brinks, will not be nearly as golden as last year’s.

Again, some evidence would be nice.

The deals for Drew, Lowe (four years, $36 million) and Kent (two years, $17 million) made it more difficult to label McCourt a cheapskate, though the money the Dodgers forked over to Drew sure looked like a panic move after the club ran outfielder Shawn Green off to Arizona…

Forget for a second that this is the most poorly written sentence I have ever read. Portraying the replacing of Shawn Green with JD Drew as a panic move is just moronic. Here are their respective 2004 lines…

Green: .266/.352/.459
Drew: .305/.436/.569

…showed no love to Beltre (who put up All-Star numbers while playing essentially on one foot last year; the other was injured) and needed ear plugs to block out the disapproving roar of its fan base.

Oh so now it’s a GM’s job to “show love” to his players and appease a fan base being informed by the most disingenuous and hacktastic sports media in the country. OK, Scott.

Will Lowe be so charitable if, come April and May, he snaps off some terrific sinkers that go to waste if the infield defense doesn’t catch the ball?

Scott, the defense didn’t regress. If you are going to slam us over the head with this notion, please, show us.

Lowe neglected to say which flavor of Kool-Aid the front office poured for him over the winter.

Ah, journalism…

Maybe we’re all surprised and DePodesta will spin gold from his lump of Play-Doh

No Scott, you’ll be surprised because you don’t have the first clue about the sport you cover. Those of us that spend a little time trying to understand the game will smile knowingly, however, when the Dodgers win the NL West going away.

If you want some more laughs, take a look at some of Miller’s past stuff. He’s a simpleton’s simpleton, an intellectual non-entity covering a sport that has passed him by. A hearty “fuck you” from DePo to Plaschke, Miller and their ilk will be in order come September when the Dodgers are resting their starters getting ready for the postseason. If you lack understanding of the game, fine. But if you combine ignorance with total disregard for journalistic integrity, well that gets my dander up.

Go Dodgers. I have never rooted for a non-Boston team as hard as I will be for “dem Bums” in 2005.

Comments (2)

By Mullet,

Arizona Diamondbacks
2004: 51-11 5th in the NL West

Projected Lineup:
2B Craig Counsell
CF Jose Cruz, Jr.
3B Troy Glaus
LF Luis Gonzalez
RF Shawn Green
1B Chad Tracy
SS Royce Clayton
C Koyie Hill

Projected Rotation
Javier Vazquez
Russ Ortiz
Brandon Webb
Shawn Estes
Brad Halsey

Closer:
Greg Aquino

Outlook:
In 2004, the Arizona Diamondbacks were abysmally bad. But what could you possibly have expected from a franchise that started out from Day One on a course to mortgage the future for a successful present? It is hard to fault that philosophy, as it brought the Dbacks a World Series crown and a remarkable run of three division titles in their short tenure as an MLB franchise.

That management philosophy, however, comes with a price. The 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks were part of that price. From the looks of the 2005 roster, the fans of Arizona aren’t done paying for that championship yet.

With the Diamondbacks recent ownership change, the team decided it would not be satisfied to sit and wait for the youngsters to develop—especially since the Diamondbacks really haven’t ever developed a bonafide star. Joe Garagiola, Jr. made the 2004-05 offseason an interesting one. Gone are the Diamondbacks superstar pitcher Randy Johnson (finally traded to the Yankees for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey and Dioner Navarro) and leading hitter “Swing Away” Shea Hillenbrand (sent off to the Blue Jays for middling pitching prospect Adam Peterson). Garagiola, Jr. hit the free agent market hard, giving huge deals to oft-injured slugger Troy Glaus and overrated innings eater Russ Ortiz. The GM turned the just acquired Navarro into slumping and unhappy Dodgers outfielder Shawn Green. Minor deals to bring in veterans Craig Counsell, Shawn Estes, and Royce Clayton ensure that the front office at least looks like it’s making improvements, even if the new guys really aren’t upgrades at all over the cheap youngsters who manned their roles last year. On paper, many people have the initial reaction that this was a great offseason for the Diamondbacks. If you look closely, the facts just don’t support that conclusion.

On offense, the Diamondbacks are certainly improved. Replacing Shea Hillenbrand with Troy Glaus is a huge upgrade, if you assume that Glaus will be healthy for a full season for the first time since 2002. Chad Tracy’s very average bat moves from 3rd to 1st base, where his offense looks even more out of place. The middle infield got older. That’s about all you can say about moving from Alex Cintron and Scott Hairston/Matt Kata to Royce Clayton and Craig Counsell. Cintron was uniformly bad in 2004, but he’s only a season removed from a very good 2003 campaign. Royce Clayton was uniformly bad in 2004, but he’s now 6 years removed from the last time his bat was useful for anything other than propping him up in the on-deck circle. Neither Hairston nor Kata were very good, but Hairston is only 25 and as recently as last year was a highly thought of prospect. Craig Counsell was actually worse than Hairston at the plate last year, but Counsell happened to have the one good season of his entire career in 2000 in Arizona, so he comes back as the conquering hero, even though he probably makes the lineup a little bit worse. Koyie Hill and Kelly Stinnett will probably battle for the catching job, with neither of them being worth much at the plate.

Around the outfield, only Luis Gonzales returns from the 2004 squad, and Gonzo spent a lot of that time on the DL. Gonzales isn’t the feared hitter he once was, and, at the age of 37, is a good candidate to regress further. Newly acquired Jose Cruz, Jr. (stolen from the Devil Rays for Casey Fossum) might be Garagiola’s lone coup of the offseason, as he’s a pretty solid defensive outfielder who also happens to be a decent hitter. Shawn Green fills in RF, but he’s now a few seasons removed from being a great hitter. Still, both the combined offense and defense of Cruz and Green are certainly moderate upgrades over Steve Finley and Danny Bautista.

The new look pitching staff replaces Randy Johnson with Javier Vazquez. Even as someone who expects good things from Vazquez, that’s a net loss for the team. Additionally, Vazquez could be a bit scary pitching in the BOB, as he’s homer-prone and that number could rise further in Arizona. The same is true for Russ Ortiz, quite possibly the most overrated pitcher in baseball. Arizona’s new number 2 starter, Ortiz is pretty much a a little better than league average, walks far too many hitters, doesn’t strike enough out, and has consistently been bailed out by a good offense. He won’t have that in Arizona, and will have quite a few innings where he walks a hitter or two and then gives up a 3 run bomb. If he has an ERA under 4.75, that’s a moral victory. Brandon Webb hopes to rebound from last season’s control woes to regain the form he showed in 2003 when he deserved to win the Rookie of the Year award. Shawn Estes has really been a pretty bad pitcher since about 1998 and I doubt that will change this season. The last spot in the rotation could go to a number of young pitchers, including Brad Halsey, Mike Gosling, or former closer Oscar Villarreal. The smart money is on Halsey who, at age 24, might have the best chance of becoming a legitimate major league starter—just not in 2005. As bad as this rotation might be, it is an improvement on the array of misfits that Arizona ran out to the mound in 2004.

The Arizona bullpen is a collection of low cost, mostly young pitchers. That’s about the best thing I can say about them. Expected closer Greg Aquino isn’t really a stellar pitcher, but he happened to be the guy who got the most saves last season. Villarreal’s arm and composure seem to have been wrecked by former manager Bob Brenly. Brandon Lyon, Randy Choate, and Mike Koplove might be the only other recognizable faces in a bullpen that is probably going to churn through a ton of pitchers as they search for anyone who can come in the game and get batters out.

The good news for Diamondback fans is that the 2005 season should be better than the 2004 season. The team has improved over the squad that won 51 games. The bad news is that the small improvements are simply not enough, and this team won’t be much better than the 2004 squad, even after throwing around money all winter. The team has tied up a lot of payroll in some older players (Gonzales), some fragile players (Glaus), and some players who just flat out don’t deserve it (Ortiz, Estes, Green). There is some help on the farm (but not nearly enough), but it won’t make a difference next season. The farm system isn’t nearly as deep as it looked a couple of seasons ago, though 2005 draftee Stephen Drew could make a big splash if the Dbacks can sign him. In the end, the Diamondbacks will very likely bring up the rear in the NL West again, and can only hope that they are able to turn some of their aging, declining stars into younger players and prospects. Otherwise, the fans of Arizona might be paying the price for the 2001 World Series for a long time to come.

Prediction: 62-100

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Carlos Quentin OF
2. Conor Jackson OF
3. Jonathan Zeringue OF
4. Josh Kroeger OF
5. Chris Snyder C
6. Sergio Santos SS
7. Jamie D’Antona 3B
8. Enrique Gonzalez RHP
9. Garrett Mock RHP
10. Ramon Pena RHP

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By Sully, 3/10/2005 5:02 pm

The most demoralizing news regarding the Red Sox in quite a while…

Roberto Petagine will have knee surgery next Tuesday, a procedure that could shatter his hopes of making the Big League roster. Since the Sox signed Petagine, I had become more and more convinced that he was an excellent candidate to be 2005′s Bill Mueller, David Ortiz or Mark Bellhorn. You know, the savvy pickup that exceeds all expectations. To be perfectly honest, I even thought he would have Kevin Millar’s job by July 1.

Alas, it appears as though the Sox will have to make due with Yappy McLoudpants.

Comments (2)

By Sully,

Well relax.

Matt Clement and Edgar Renteria are getting along with their teammates.

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By PiG,

Colorado Rockies
2004: 68-94, 4th in the NL West

Projected line-up:
2B Aaron Miles
SS Clint Barnes
1B Todd Helton
CF Preston Wilson
3B Garrett Atkins
RF Dustan Mohr
C JD Closser
LF Matt Holliday

Projected Rotation:
Joe Kennedy
Jason Jennings
Shawn Chacon
Jeff Francis
Darren Oliver

Closer:
Chin-hui Tsao

Outlook:
Rockies fans that have been following the Tulsa Drillers and Colorado Springs Sky Sox are in for quite the treat this summer. They will get to watch their beloved minor leaguers graduate to the big leagues. The Rockies possess one of the most homegrown line-ups in the game. 5 of the 8 hitters in their starting line-up have never had an at-bat in any other Major League uniform. However, this will be the only thing Rockies fans will have to be proud of. The Rockies are in the midst of an intense rebuilding process and their record should reflect that this summer as they struggle to rack up W’s. Only 3 of the Rockies’ starting line-up have had greater than 2 full years of experience in the Majors – not good news for a pitching staff who has consistently had trouble keeping opposing teams from racking up runs, and trouble keeping the ball in the park.

It will be a rocky ride for the 2005 edition of the Rox.

Hitting:
Todd Helton returns as one of the premier hitters in the league. Helton, the active leader in batting average, and slugging percentage, and second among active players in on-base percentage – will earn $16.6 million, but is definitely producing as if he is earning that money. Helton won’t be surrounded by much, however. Centerfielder Preston Wilson will provide protection in the order for Helton, hoping to capitalize on opportunities with runners on base as Helton will reach base quite frequently. Wilson, if healthy provides a bat capable of hitting 30-35 Home Runs. At third base will be Garrett Atkins, the former UCLA standout who was selected in the 5th round by the Rox in the 2000 draft. The Rockies hope that he can produce like another former UCLA third baseman, Troy Glaus. Atkins was among PCL leaders in AVG, OBP, and SLG last season while posting a .366/.434/.515 line. Atkins will definitely benefit from Coors Field and could produce 25 home runs and plenty of RBIs behind Helton and Wilson.

Behind the plate, Charles Johnson will be reduced to a back-up role as prospect JD Closser will be given the starting catching duties. Also with limited major league experience, Closser showed good plate discipline and decent pop in AAA Colorado Springs with an average of .299, while producing an on-base percentage of .384.

Up the middle will be Clint Barnes and Aaron Miles. Barnes has had trouble defensively in the past, but is known more for his bat. Barnes, who was taken in the 10th round of the 2000 draft – like Atkins – is not known for his defensive talent. Miles, who was acquired from the Chicago White Sox prior to the 2004 season for Juan Uribe could miss the start of the season with a knee he injured in Spring Training.

Hitting has never been a problem for the Rockies, and this season will be no different. The problem has been keeping the opposing team off the board again, this season will be no different.

Pitching:
Anchoring the pitching staff is the Rockies single-season ERA champ, you guessed it – Joe Kennedy. Kennedy was able to do last year what no Rockies pitcher had been able to do in 12 seasons – post an ERA under 4.00. Alongside Kennedy in the rotation will be former NL Rookie of the Year Jason Jennings (no relation to Ken) who if produces another season with an ERA in the mid-5’s would be considered a success given his home park. Also, after a failed season at closer – despite saving 35 games – Shawn Chacon and his 7.11 ERA will be moved to the starting rotation. While Mike Williams would consider that to be an all-star like season, the Rockies will abandon their Chacon-as-closer project and move him into the rotation, replacing him with Chin-hui Tsao in the closer’s role. Perhaps the most intriguing pitcher on the Rockies staff is Canadian left-hander, and former University of British Columbia Thunderbird Jeff Francis. After a controversial 2004, in which the Rockies did not allow Francis to travel to Athens to play for Canada, the 2004 Minor League pitcher of the year will be given a job in the starting rotation. Francis does not have overpowering stuff, featuring a fastball in the low 90’s, but relies on pinpoint accuracy and a good slider and change-up. It must be working, as he’s posted terrific strikeout rates at every level of baseball. After struggling in August, Francis showed why he is regarded as the best pitching prospect in baseball in September, going 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA. The Rockies hope that this is a sign of things to come in 2005. Battling it out for the last spot in the rotation is Darren Oliver and Jamey Wright, neither of whom will be anything spectacular.

Anchoring the bullpen will be Taiwanese right-hander Chin-hui Tsao, who after starting his entire minor league career has expressed his desire to manager Clint Hurdle to close. Tsao has averaged greater than a strikeout per inning in his minor league career and has walked only 2.26 batters per 9 innings in 369 minor league innings. Among the candidates for the remaining bullpen slots include Javier Lopez (former Red Sox Rule 5 selection) and relative unknowns Eddie Gaillard, Aaron Taylor, Marcos Carvajal, David Cortes, and Brian Fuentes. The only sure thing this bullpen provides is the assurance that many programs will be sold at Coors Field so that fans know who these guys are.
Last year, the only thing preventing the Rockies from a last place finish was the Diamondbacks posting 109 losses. Despite losing Vinny Castilla and Jeromy Burnitz, I believe their offense will not miss a beat. And if Jeff Francis emerges as the ace type starter that he can be, and then the Rockies could finish with more victories than last season – it’s just not very likely. However, this won’t be enough to stop them from finishing in last place in an improved National League West.

Prediction:
63-99

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Jeff Francis, LHP
2. Ian Stewart, 3B
3. Chris Nelson, SS
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
5. Jeff Baker, 3B
6. Seth Smith, OF
7. Jeff Salazar, OF
8. Clint Barnes, SS
9. Juan Morillo, RHP
10. Jayson Nix, 2B

Comments (3)

By Sully, 3/9/2005 9:54 am

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2004: 92-70 AL West Champions, Lost to the Boston Red Sox 3-0 in the ALDS

Projected lineup:
1B Darin Erstad
SS Orlando Cabrera
RF Vladimir Guerrero
LF Garret Anderson
CF Steve Finley
3B Dallas McPherson
DH Jeff Davanon
C Ben Molina
2B Adam Kennedy

Projected Rotation:
Bartolo Colon
Kelvim Escobar
John Lackey
Jarrod Washburn
Paul Byrd

Closer:
Francisco Rodriguez

Outlook:
Here’s another team that will win its share of games but fall short of their potential due to front office gaffes and managerial misplacements. Like the Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles has some nice pieces in place. They boast the American League’s very best player in Vladimir Guerrero, they have an underrated 2nd baseman in Adam Kennedy, they can go to a fantastic bench late in a game or in an injury situation and they possess a host of talent coming up through the minors. They will fully unveil uber-prospect Dallas McPherson this year and if God in fact looks after these Angels, the Halo faithful will see Casey Kotchman replace Darin “the Drain” Erstad. Problem is, Erstad embodies everything this franchise thinks is good; a dirty uniform, a sporting personality and a propensity to notch outs at a steady rate. Consider this excerpt from Erstad in the March 3rd, 2005 edition of the Los Angeles Times:

“I’m the first to admit, I feel I’ve underachieved the last few years. My power numbers haven’t been where they should be. I should hit 20 home runs and 35 doubles every year. But I’m not going to jeopardize this team for the benefit of personal statistics.”…

…”I know my power numbers are not on par [with other first basemen], but making productive outs is more important to me,” Erstad said. “The ‘Moneyball’ approach is a different philosophy, a strong philosophy. I don’t walk a ton, and my on-base percentage isn’t as high as it should be. But I also roll about 30 ground balls a year to second base, getting runners to third.”

You get the idea. The Angels have enough talent to overcome their philosophy and are probably the favorites to win the division…which means you should get some odds, find your old-schooliest pal and throw some hay on Oakland. They’ll be your 2005 AL West champion.

The Angels lost Troy Glaus, Jose Guillen and David Eckstein from their 2004 lineup. They will replace them with Dallas McPherson, Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera. From a performance standpoint, this is as sideways as a three-person swap can be. Whatever performance gap between Troy Glaus and Dallas McPherson exists will be made up by the greater likelihood that McPherson will stay healthy. Here are a couple of comps between the other two outgoings and incomings.

2004
Guillen: .294/.352/.497
Finley: .271/.333/.490

Eckstein: .276/.339/.332
Cabrera: .264/.306/.383

There is a major problem with both trade-offs. In the outfield, Finley probably represents a small downgrade from a straight performance perspective, especially when you consider his defense has long been vastly overrated. But the major problem is that Los Angeles has committed $14 million over the next two seasons to a 40 year-old centerfielder that already doesn’t carry his weight on the defensive side of things. Playing Erstad in centerfield, allowing Kotchman to assume full-time duties at first base and allocating Finley’s dough to the rotation would have been the more desirable solution. At shortstop, again, it’s the money. The Halos owe the OC $32 million over the next four years and at some point will be paying him to block one of the very best shortstop prospects in baseball, Erick Aybar. The potential for performance upgrade over Eckstein exists, but not ostensibly enough to justify the contract.

As far as the rest of the lineup, Kennedy will be reliable, albeit most likely from his misplaced position in the nine-hole. Ben Molina had his $3 million option picked up in true Jason-Varitek-keep-everyone-happy fashion. He’s not good. Vlad is Vlad. Garret Anderson will hack and flail and post some nice counting stats. Erstad will suck – the sooner Kotchman plays the better. Jeff Davanon will once again be underrated and help the offense along. The bench is a true strength. Chone Figgins is versatile, speedy and reliable. Juan Rivera was a nice fetch in the Jose Guillen deal. Robb Quinlan provides some on-base with a little pop and Kotchman is a star waiting for some regular run. Jose Molina, um, has two brothers that also catch. Mike Scioscia has the creativity and inclination to effectively utilize his bench. In terms of recognizing the advantages to be gained by assembling and utilizing 1-25 on the roster, few do it better than the Angels.

Just as Los Angeles’s bench will go a long way to cover up some problems in their lineup, their bullpen should cloak failings in their starting rotation. Bartolo Colon is no longer an ace. An unforeseeable decline in his ability to strike batters out has turned him into a pumpkin – quite literally – and he is now merely good. The good news for Angels fans, however, is that Kelvim Escobar just may emerge as the ace Colon has failed to become in an Angels uniform. He can strike guys out and if he can put it all together, could be the difference between a good Angels club and a very good one. John Lackey and Jarrod Washburn just chew up innings. With run support, something the Angels will provide more often than not, they’re fine. But their respective performance records don’t justify their reps. People have been waiting for a Lackey breakout but at this point, he is what he is. Paul Byrd will round out the rotation and if he can stay healthy, he could be a real asset. Don’t bet on it, though. Of the teams with a crack at the postseason in 2005, the Angels have one of the worst rotations.

As stated above, the bullpen is Los Angeles’ meal ticket. Even without closer Troy Percival, this unit can deal. Their closer, Francisco Rodriguez has some of the filthiest stuff I’ve ever seen. He combines a blistering fastball with a sharp hook and strikes batters out at a ridiculous rate. Steve Finley can probably lie down and rest his 40 year-old bones when K-Rod enters the ballgame. Setting him up will be Brendan Donnelly, who will look to rebound to his 2003 levels. Kevin Gregg, Scot Shields and Esteban Yan will fill out the bullpen power-arm contingent while Matt Hensley and Scott Dunn will chip in too. The Angels are testament to the notion that valuing a particular arm, right or left, over actual talent is foolhardy. A good righty is better than a bad lefty, no matter whom you are facing. That the Angels have boasted such a lights-out bullpen without a prominent southpaw the last few years pays tribute to this.

The Angels are a good team. There is no doubt about that. But they could be so much more. The ability to identify roster needs can carry a team a long ways but the Angels seem to lack it. Instead of addressing their starting pitching, they made a series of loud, sideways moves that will probably hold them back from 90 wins and worse, cost them a division they ought to win.

Prediction: 87-75

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Dallas McPherson, 3B
2. Casey Kotchman, 1B
3. Erick Aybar, SS
4. Kendry Morales, OF-1B
5. Ervin Santana, RHP
6. Brandon Wood, SS
7. Steve Shell, RHP
8. Jeff Mathis, C
9. Howie Kendrick, 2B
10. Alberto Callaspo, 2B-SS

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By Berry, 3/8/2005 11:03 am

Kansas City Royals
2004: 58-104, .358 5th Place in AL Central

Projected lineup:
1.David DeJesus CF
2.Angel Berroa SS
3.Ken Harvey DH
4.Mike Sweeney 1B
5.Matt Stairs LF
6.Terrence Long RF
7.John Buck C
8.Chris Truby 3B
9.Tony Graffanino 2B

Projected Rotation:
Zach Grienke
Jose Lima
Runelvys Hernandez
Brian Anderson
Jimmy Gobble

Closer:
Jeremy Affledt

Outlook:
The Royals royally suck.

The fun part of the 2005 season for Kansas City fans will be the thrilling discussion about whether this squad is the worst team in Royal history.

So this should be a fun year for Royal fans.

Catcher:

This isn’t a lost cause for Kansas City. They have John Buck, a catcher entering his Age 24 season and showed real power potential last year. He managed to hit 12 homers in 238 AB’s after being called up by KC after the Beltran deal. He also had success at the AAA level with New Orleans (.300/.368/.507).

Should he get hurt, they are basically fucked. Justin Huber (acquired from the Mets last year) has a lot of potential but is still at least a year away. Paul Phillips is like Tony Phillips only without the talent and any other feature that would remind you of Tony Phillips.

Infield:

Imagine watching your grandmother making out with a homeless guy while she pawns lampshades with defection on them. That’s kind of what it should be like watching the Royals infield this year.

Mike Sweeney will be at first base until he gets traded (which is only a matter of time if you ask me). Now Sweeney used to be a very nice player but he was never great. It’s important to remember that Sweeney never hit 30 homers in a season and his play has really fallen off since his 1999-2000 seasons. He also hasn’t played in 127 games since 2001.

*****WILD THEORY*****
If you ask me, Mike Sweeney benefits from playing for a crappy team for his whole career. If he was on a good/great team, he’d be another part. In Kansas City, he gets undeserved star treatment.
**********************

At second base, you have Tony Graffanino. Graffanino is a Litmus Player. He tells you how good you team is pretty quickly. If you have Tony Graffanino on the bench, you probably have a playoff team. If you are starting him, you probably suck. Guess what the Royals are going to do with him? He’ll be good for a .260/.330/.390 season and will be “scrappy” no less then 37 times.

Who won the AL Rookie Of The Year in 2003? Hard to remember? That’s because it was starting shortstop Angel Berroa! That’s right! This is the same Angel Berroa who was worthless last year putting up a .262/.308/.385 line.

In fairness, I do think he is better then he was last season and he is only 27. But even in his ROY season, he still only went .287/.338/.451. We’re not talking Vada Pinson here (In other Vada Pinson news, he spent the last 2 seasons of his career with the Royals in 1975-76. To commemorate his 30th anniversary of joining the team, they are going to dig his body up and cut his body into 1 inch X 1 inch square to be placed on the back of Upper Deck baseball cards to handed out June 3rd Vs. Texas!).

At third base, you have Joe Randa. Oh wait. He’s gone. They let him to go to the Reds. Luckily the replaced him with a very familiar face to anyone who knows Chris Truby personally. That’s right! They got Chris Truby! You might remember Chris Truby from such teams as the 2000 Astros and the 2003 Devil Rays!

Truby did have a really nice year in Nashville last year (.300/.367/.558 130 games). I don’t understand this move outside of just filling a spot. He’s 31 years old and has had no MLB success despite numerous chances. If you have any question why the Royals will suck an amazing amount next year, look at a guy like Chris Truby playing everyday. Why not play Mark Teahan?

Outfield:

Matt Stairs has had a nice career and made more out of his mechanic-esque body then almost anyone could. He still should not start everyday in Left Field and to be honest, I don’t think he is going to hold up based on the fact he has never played 150 games in any season and he is in Age 37. Not to beat the Chris Truby thing any further, but why? Why play Matt Stairs? Trade him for a cheap, younger alternative. Why not use the Rule V better? But yes, the Royals who will lose 95 games easily will play a 37 year old man in Left.

In Center Field, you get David DeJesus. He is a fun, young and interesting baseball player on any team. I really think he could have a nice season. He is only 25 and went .287/.360/.402 with the big club after slugging over .500 in AAA. He’s the kind of player that does everything well but nothing great and can be a real asset and building block for this team. If you ask me, easily the most exciting hitter they have.

In Right Field, you get Terrence Long. He is not fun or interesting baseball player on any team. I really think he’ll have a lousy season. He is 29 and went 295/.335/.420 after spending most of the season platooning in San Diego. He is the kind of player that does nothing well but nothing great and isn’t an asset or a building block for this team. If you ask me, Long is easily one of the worst regulars in Major League Baseball.

Ken Harvey is the DH and will probably be running a used car lot outside of Kansas City in 2014. What the Hell do you want me to say about Ken Harvey? That he is one of the worst All-Stars ever, winning the Mike Williams Award last year? Or that he is entering Age 27 in a power position with career numbers that read 276/.324 /.413? Why did Jeff make me write about the Royals? I feel like Hunter S. Thompson after writing this.

Bench:
Who cares?

I don’t know. Expect to see some sort of mix of Calvin Pickering (who could be fun to watch), Denny Hocking (who won’t be), Eli Marrero and other people who are actually much less talented then those people.

Starting Rotation:
Zack Grienke will be a flat out stud. It may not be this year or even next year, but he will win 20 games. He will have a Top 5 in ERA for more then three seasons. He will be one of the most successful pitchers in his era. When a 20 year old pitcher has an ERA a half-run lower then the League Average… well that’s awesome. Combine that with his flat out stuff and you can’t help but be impressed.

Fuck Jose Canseco! The real “Jose Scandal” this season occurred in December when it came out that not only does Jose Lima have herpes (Lima Time!) but he passed them to some lady that is not his wife! Lima went 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 2003 with the Royals. Expect the same ERA but you can add about 10 losses to his record this year.

Runelvys Hernandez was a decent enough pitcher before he got hurt in 2003. Now he’s 27 and he bores me. He was never a great pitcher, may be could have been an OK/good one and now he hasn’t pitched in over 20 months. Aside from that, I like him!

Brian Anderson is a kooky lefty who had a 5.64 ERA last year and will make over 3 million dollar this year. Kevin Appier is over 83 years old and actually played with Bob Boone and Bill Buckner. Jimmy Gobble is a 23 year old who should be getting chances but won’t because they have guys like Anderson and Lima. Kyle Snyder is yet another Royals pitcher who didn’t pitch in 2004 due to injury.

Bullpen:
Jeremy Affeldt has talent but I don’t think he should be in the bullpen. To give up on a 25 year old who still is well below the league average in ERA and shuttle him to be the closer is foolish if you ask me. It’s fucking retarded if you have Jose Lima, Kevin Appier and Brian Anderson fighting for starting roles.

Mike MacDougal is another guy the Royals gave up for no real reason. Did he struggle seriously at times while he was closing games for the 2003 Royals? Yup. So what? Why not give him a real shot and have Affeldt start and free up some money by trading a Brain Anderson or not signing a Jose Lima? Hopefully his confidence will improve but it’s pretty obvious the Royals have no idea what to do with him.

Denny Bautsita has what could be a fun arm to watch. Nate Feld and Scott Sullivan are serviceable. The bullpen kinda sucks.

Conclusion: This team is awful. Horrible players, worse choices and nothing anyone would want to watch. At least with some lousy teams like the Devil Rays, you can see young players who just need more time. The Royals just need all new players. I haven’t even mentioned Tony “Why they” Pena. Why should I? He doesn’t matter as this team is crap with or without him.

The 2005 Royals: They Are The Suck.

Prediction: 59-103

Top 10 Prospects (by Jeff)
1. Denny Bautista RHP
2. JP Howell LHP
3. Billy Butler 3B
4. Mark Teahen 3B
5. Justin Huber C
6. Billy Buckner RHP
7. Mitch Maier 3B-OF
8. Shane Costa OF
9. Don Murphy 2B
10. Matt Campbell LHP

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 3/7/2005 9:59 am

Los Angeles Dodgers
2004: 93-85 1st in the NL West; Lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS 3-1

Projected Lineup:
SS: Cesar Izturis
RF: Milton Bradley
CF: JD Drew
2B: Jeff Kent
3B: Jose Valentin
LF: Jayson Werth
1B: Hee Choi
C: Paul Bako/David Ross

Projected Rotation:
Odalis Perez
Jeff Weaver
Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Kaz Ishii

Closer:
Eric Gagne

Outlook:
A year ago, Frank McCourt bought the Dodgers from News Corp. The Boston-based McCourt was thought to be a Selig pick, much like the current Red Sox ownership was pre-Spring in 2002. McCourt was also thought to have a cash flow problem, borrowing millions from News Corp. for the right to buy the team from them. These complaints were intensified when ex-Moneyball poster boy, Paul DePodesta was hired under the guise of “financial responsibility.” This, of course, means that the Dodgers wanted to rate a low payroll over wins.

The Dodgers also won the division, making the most controversial trade of the 2004 season (yes, including Nomar’s exile). Because I refuse to look at one color over the whole picture, here is how it all broke down:

Dodgers gave up:
Paul LoDuca
Juan Encarnacion
Guillermo Mota
Tom Martin
Dave Roberts
Reggie Abercrombie
Koyle Hill
Bill Murphy

Dodgers received:
Steve Finley
Brent Mayne
Henri Stanley
Matt Mericks
Hee Choi
Brad Penny
Yhencey Brazoban (called up from minors)
Bill Murphy

The heart and soul of the team in LoDuca and ace setup man Mota were traded for oft-injured Brad Penny, and big Korean Choi. In the press (and in the minds of most baseball fans I talked to) the Dodgers got raped, Oz-shower style. Of course, the LA Nine won their division, and Florida fell behind the Phillies, all while the Dodgers got younger and cheaper.

DePodesta’s reign in Los Angeles has been shaky, despite the first playoff appearance since 1996. Between the controversial LoDuca, and their hand in the on-again/off-again Randy Johnson trade, he’s taken his fair share of bad press. One can only think that after losing Adrian Beltre to the Mariners this off-season, and throwing beaucoup monies at oft-injured JD Drew, old-ish Jeff Kent, and inconsistent Derek Lowe, Depo is up from more pressure from the likes of Bill Plaschke.

In year two of the McCourt era in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have retooled again. However, this year, rather than picking up nifty parts like Jayson Werth and Milton Bradley, big ticket items Lowe, Drew, and Kent were signed, at the expense of the draft and McCourt’s previously empty wallet. It remains to be seen if the moves from this off-season actually improved the Dodgers from 2004. The offense should have more balance replacing Encarnacion, Beltre, Mayne, and Alex Cora with Jeff Kent, Jose Valentin, JD Drew, and the two catchers (who should add nothing).

The problem with the Dodgers infield is that it is volatile. Kent has generally been pretty steady with his production, but he is also getting older, and there are concerns about his durability as his career enters its twilight. Cesar Izturis is coming off his first acceptable year. Now he has to build that up to “slightly below average” Jose Valentin has good walk rates, and power in spades, but he lacks the ability to make contact which drive his batting average and on base down to craptastic levels.

On the other corner is the enigmatic Hee Choi. When he was involved in a collision with Kerry Wood a few years ago, he was among the top half of the league’s first basemen. After, he was buried and forgotten by Dusty Baker (he wasn’t as good as Jose Macias, I suppose). He was the Marlins’ second best hitter at the time of the trade in 2004 (behind Miguel Cabrera) and promptly “blew chunks” after (technical term). I don’t know which is the sample size myth, the good before routine disruption or the bad after. I’m willing to bet that he’s as good a bet to go .220/.330/.380 as he is to go .280/.400/.580.

The outfield is also high risk/reward. Jayson Werth has been hit by an injury bug, first with a knee injury that was supposed to end his season, but I guess was just kidding and then jamming his wrist this spring. Last year he showed a lot of power, but didn’t really get on base as much as he should. To his left stands the fragile JD Drew. I’m starting to think that if Drew and Werth ever had a collision on the field, 15 might end up dead. Eitherway, Drew, playing his first full season since Hahira Little League, put up the numbers dreamed of when the Phillies drafted and then shortchanged him. If he can stay healthy, he should be a top 10 hitter in the National League again. If Drew collides with the gentleman on his left, he will likely be shanked to death on his hospital gurney. And I like Milton Bradley.

The Los Angeles rotation has two #2 starters in Perez and Weaver, who was tailor-made for an environment like Los Angeles. The question marks in the rotation are the bottom guys. What will Chavez Ravine have in store for Derek Lowe? The former Red Sox won’t be hurt by the one thing that Dodger Stadium allows, which is home runs. On the flip side, he won’t be playing in front of an offense that scores 7 runs a game either. Can Brad Penny actually pitch for more than 6 weeks at a time? Can Kaz Ishii pitch well at all? Is Edwin Jackson still alive? These are balls that need to bounce in the Dodgers favor, or DePo will be busy at the deadline again, and probably make a few deals that are universally panned by people that don’t know any better.

As much as I would like to be the optimist, I don’t see every break going the Dodgers way. They have too many questions in their pitching staff (main setup man is rookie and Gammons’ towel boy Yhency Brazoban), and their offense will likely score in the neighborhood of 750 runs. I don’t expect them to win the West again, but hey, the West is pretty terrible, and I’ve been wrong before..

Prediction: 89-73

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Joel Guzman
2. Chad Billingsley
3. Edwin Jackson
4. Delwyn Young
5. Jonathan Broxton
6. Mike Megrew
7. Chuck Tiffany
8. Russ Martin
9. Cory Dunlap
10. Blake DeWitt

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By Sully,

I hadn’t read anything remotely like this in any of the So-Cal publications. Of course with Simers, Plaschke and Kirkorian as flag bearers for the local sports press corps, it’s not surprising you have to look pretty hard for a fresh angle.

Here.

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By Sully, 3/6/2005 3:14 pm

Enjoy it while it’s free, folks.

And yeah, don’t look now but the Sox have a good farm system. Clearly above average, if you ask me.

If you don’t believe that Hanley is a good prospect, he turned a triple play today in Fort Myers.

Sample size, my ass.

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By Sully, 3/5/2005 12:27 pm

Detroit Tigers
2004: 72-90 4th in the AL Central

Projected lineup:
2B Omar Infante
SS Carlos Guillen
C Ivan Rodriguez
RF Magglio Ordonez
DH Dmitri Young
1B Carlos Pena
LF Rondell White
3B Brandon Inge
CF Alex Sanchez

Projected Rotation:
Jeremy Bonderman
Jason Johnson
Mike Maroth
Nate Robertson
Wil Ledezma

Closer:
Troy Percival

Outlook:

It’s not like it’s all bad for the Tigers. Two years removed from losing 119 games, the team features some worthwhile components, and in a division that features nothing but vanilla ballclubs, it would be hasty to rule out a division title. That they can be considered even in fringe contention for a bad division, alone, is a feat. But they’re not optimizing. The core is there. They have a young ace in Jeremy Bonderman that should continue to develop. Jason Johnson will throw some innings – average innings at best – but innings. Carlos Guillen, as long as he can shake off his 2004 knee injury, appears to have become a star. Pudge is Pudge. And even though they owe him a fortune, the Tigers have every reason to expect considerable production from Magglio Ordonez. The contract is an awful one, maybe the worst handed out all winter, but there is no doubt that Magglio can hit and there are now reports that his injury is not as bad as had been initially reported. What’s not there is the type of quality roster construction on the fringe that can make such a huge difference. Dave Dombrowski has fallen short in this regard. Let’s explore.

The Tigers feature five very good candidates to post better than an .800 OPS, and a couple are good candidates to better .900. That two of these five players play shortstop and catcher means that they could very well form the core of an excellent lineup. Guillen, Pudge, Mags, Dmitri Young and Carlos Pena will doubtless strike fear into opposing pitchers. The problem is what the Tigers throw up there around these guys. Omar Infante, Rondell White and Alex Sanchez are all out-machines and lest you think Brandon Inge will help, I ought to remind you that despite last year’s .340 on-base, his career mark sits at .283. If Inge is the answer, what the hell’s the question?

So what could Dombrowski have done? Well for starters, he already seems to have a solution for Alex Sanchez. Promising prospect Curtis Granderson should arrive full-time this season at some point to wrestle away centerfield duties. The bad news is that, Dmitri Young rehab stints aside, Granderson will be the last Tiger to emerge from their Minor League system to make meaningful contributions on the Big League level for a long time. This system is one of baseball’s worst and Dombrowski hired former Sox employee David Chadd to try and resurrect it. But back to what Dombrowski could have done on the fringes. What about Rondell White? For cheaply available outfield talent this off-season, Dombroski could have signed the Cubs’ Todd Hollandsworth or St. Louis’ John Mabry. If he wanted to crack open the wallet just a little bit more, they could have signed David Dellucci. All three of these players could have, at the very least, represented nifty platoon partners for the big-swinging right-hander, White. Something should have been done about Omar Infante, as well. His average glove doesn’t justify his noodle bat and Fernando Vina isn’t the solution, either. Now granted this guy would have been a bit pricey, but if Dombrowski saw fit to commit wads of cash to aging reliever Troy Percival and another $75 million to Mags, then don’t tell me they couldn’t have afforded Placido Polanco. Polanco is a perennially underrated item, a player that when going good, is every bit the player that Edgar Renteria and Derek Jeter are. 2 years, $10 million on Polanco would have gone a lot further than the contract for Percival, and that’s before factoring that Percival is due for a sharp decline. It’s tough to get too worked up over Inge as the cheap 3rd base booty was nothing to pop about, but Jose Valentin and Jose Hernandez were probably worth a look.

This season will be a frustrating one for Tigers fans as potentially huge rallies sputter and the bottom of the order flails. But they will score some runs, probably a good 800-820 or so and that ain’t so bad.

The starting pitchers, after Bonderman, are uninspiring. Johnson is an innings eater, pitching at a level barely acceptable enough so that you can classify him as such. A little slippage and he will be the kind of innings eater that is actually holding your team back. As presently constituted, Johnson helps you tread water. And that’s really the deal for Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson too. They’ll help you hang around a game but they probably won’t win you any. Wil Ledezma has some breakout potential but has never really quite put it together. That Detroit has assembled a pitching staff that needs a big lineup to win makes the careless transgressions on the fringes of the offense all the more damning. The pitching market blew up this off-season. You want to stay away? Fine. But make damn sure you know your offense will be able to carry you most days. OmarRondell SanchInge makes this an impossibility.

I actually like the bullpen. Percival, though overpaid, is still pretty good. Ugueth Urbina is dependable. Kyle Farnsworth, Jamie Walker and Fernando Rodney all have live arms. Get this team to the sixth or seventh with a lead and they’ll win a great majority of the time.

If the Tigers make noise this season, it will be as much because of a crappy division as it will be because of any progress they may have made. Too many black holes surrounding the pop in the lineup. Too many innings-eaters and not enough out-getters in the rotation. It’s all a formula for mediocrity, albeit mediocrity of the provocative variety given the core of stars.

Prediction: 78-84

Top 10 Prospects:

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Justin Verlander, RHP
3. Joel Zumaya, RHP
4. Tony Giarratano, SS
5. Ryan Raburn, 2B
6. Chris Shelton, 1B
7. Kyle Sleeth, RHP
8. Humberto Sanchez, RHP
9. Juan Tejada, 1B
10. Eulogia de la Cruz, RHP