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By Mullet, 4/12/2005 9:55 pm

I generally like Bill Simmons. He’s a good writer and has been, over his career, an anomoly amongst the Boston media in his willingness not to just demean and rip on players because they earn money or march to the own drummer. It’s become apparent, though, that once you become a prominent member of the media that you really do lose your ability to think rationally and instead will say things that you have to know are untrue, but are controversial enough to get you a spot as a talking head or generate a few extra clicks.

His article today on Page 2 about being at the ring ceremony is an absolutely perfect example. In what is otherwise a fine, if uninteresting, take on yesterday’s pretty magical event, Simmons makes this remark:

Then the owners handed out the rings, our first chance to cheer the World Series-winning manager, Terry Francona (recovering from a viral infection that looked at first like a heart problem); last year’s Superman (Big Papi, who should just change his last name to “Kennedy” at this point); one returning hero (Derek Lowe, who seemed genuinely touched by the huge ovation); one surprise returning hero (the immortal Dave Roberts, who nearly brought the house down); every key player from last year’s team with the exception of Cabrera (stuck in Anaheim) and Pedro (unconscionably and unforgivably absent); one savior (Schilling, the last player introduced); and one walking reminder of everything that happened since 1918 (Johnny Pesky, the loudest ovation of them all).

The emphasis is mine, but the words are his. Pedro’s absence was unconscionable and unforgivable? Does it take Simmons or his editors at Page 2 too long to click over to their baseball page (see how easy that is) to see that Pedro Martinez and the New York Mets had their home opener on Monday as well? I don’t know, maybe it was best for Pedro to join his teammates for his first appearance in Shea Stadium as a member of the Mets, a team that will be paying him $53 million dollars?

As much as I love Pedro, and I truly do love the guy, I’ll admit that there are plenty of legitimate reasons to harp on him. This simply isn’t one of them. This was simply a columnist being too lazy to think past the radio soundbite and not become the very thing he harped on back when he was cutting his teeth writing for a no-name web site. It’s no wonder the Sox front office doesn’t come across looking like bad guys–they’ve got members of the media from the Globe to the Herald to ESPN to act as their bag men.

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By Sully,

· If I don’t hate A-Rod, like Mark Bellhorn, think Dewey and Boggs were both better ballplayers than Rice and wish Pedro were still a Red Sox, am I still a fan?

· Yesterday was pretty cool. I don’t think I have much value to add on the subject. Surviving Grady said it pretty well, Dirt Dogs made a mockery of it and Simmons beat it into the ground. So what else is knew?

· The early returns on Tim Wakefield sure look encouraging. He turned in his 2nd straight quality start yesterday.

· The pseudo-controversy over Derek Lowe and Dave Roberts donning Sox uniforms that John Kruk and Harold Reynolds cooked up on Baseball Tonight yesterday was an embarrassment. Is there a more revolting human trait than self-righteousness? And yet it is probably the most overarching quality in sports journalism these days. Was that really an issue yesterday? Not that shockingly the reaction from within baseball’s walls has been, “who gives a shit?”

·Watching yesterday’s game closely, I began to marvel at just how many of the Red Sox hitters go up to the plate with an intelligent approach and a clear understanding of what it is to be an offensive asset. The Red Sox have a bunch of good hitters, and I would slot them into 3 categories:

Guys with a ton of ability and an impeccable approach; these guys let balls they can’t drive go by and drive the balls at which they offer. They represent a terrible conundrum for pitchers. Come into them and pay, get cute and issue free passes. They won’t chase pitches out of the zone and won’t miss mistakes:

Trot Nixon
Manny Ramirez
David Ortiz

Guys with an excellent cerebral understanding of how to hit but flawed in their ability to execute due to physical limitations (specific flaws in parentheses). To be clear, these flaws are not necessarily flaws at all but what I see as standing between them and a slot in the first category:

Johnny Damon (good raw athlete with awkward hand-eye, ugly swing that allows him to be jammed and miss the fat part of his bat)

Kevin Millar (bails out…long swing which accounts for his propensity to hit foul balls to the third base side…susceptible to off-speed stuff)

Bill Mueller (slow bat)

Jason Varitek (gets fooled too much but can hammer a fastball…hits out on his front foot too much)

Mark Bellhorn (just not a very good hitter…great with respect to pitch recognition…swings and misses too much…too often fails to offer at hittable pitches as he makes the conscientious, and probably wise, choice of erring on the side of passivity)

Guys with a flawed approach whose athleticism enables them to excel:

Edgar Renteria (has become a free swinger and really seems to lack a plan…since he plays shortstop, however, his athleticism alone allows him to hit well enough to be considered one of the better offensive shortstops in baseball)

It goes without saying that this analysis is hardly analysis due to both its brevity and subjectivity. It’s really just a series of off-the-cuff impressions coming off an impressive day at the plate for the Sox. I would love to hear anyone’s thoughts on the Red Sox hitters and their respective approaches, strengths and limitations.

Provided the snow subsides (WTF?!?!), I will be at Fenway tomorrow night for Curt Schilling’s first start of the season, and will be back with a full game report Thursday.

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By Mullet, 4/10/2005 10:41 am

(Apologies for the belated recap)

The silver lining in Friday’s victory over the Blue Jays was the performance of Bronson Arroyo. Often cited as the pitcher who’ll be moved to the ‘pen upon the arrival of Wade Miller, Arroyo picked right up where he left off last year, throwing six strong innings against a good Blue Jays offense. Unlike pretty much every other pitcher on the Sox right now, Arroyo exhibited his trademark good control, striking out 4 and only issuing one free pass. He looked strong all night, really only making one bad pitch–the one Russ Adams deposited over the flashing neon fence at the Rogers Centre.

Alas, the main storyline that is starting to take shape early this season is the absolute abominable performance by the bullpen (and David Wells). This start reminds me much of the start in 2003, with the exception that, on paper, this bullpen is far superior to the ’03 version. A complete lack of control looks to be one early reason for the troubles of the Sox relievers. It is hard to get too wound up about these struggles, but there are warning signs that the problem could be more than just small sample size-itis. Embree’s lost his 95 mph heat, which leaves him throwing a very flat batting practice fastball. Timlin’s control has been incredibly spotty, and he’s been keeping the ball up in the zone, which is not a good thing for a ground ball pitcher. Foulke has given up at least a hit in each appearance and has shown a disturbing loss of control, similar to Timlin. The rest of the bullpen has been uniformly bad, with only Mike Myers having yet to walk a batter (and he’s only thrown 2/3rds of an inning).

When Jason Varitek signed his massive contract with the Sox, the meme that took hold in the media was that a big part of his value was his ability to manage, prepare, and lead a pitching staff. It looks like we might get a chance to see just how accurate that meme is. Lead on, Captain.

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By Sully,

I don’t think I have a whole heck of a lot of value to add because Chris Snow nails what the real story behind this game was. Four new Sox hurlers, David Wells, John Halama, Matt Mantei and Blaine Neal combined to allow 12 runs on 16 hits against a Jays team that isn’t all that great of a hitting outfit. With respect to Boomer, he has to improve his control within the strike zone. Too many meatballs. The good news is, Wells gets some time to work it out and if he is still throwing batting practice when Wade Miller returns, then he may have to head out to the bullpen.

When I tell people that replacing Curtis Leskanic’s, Ramiro Mendoza’s and Scott Williamson’s combined 90 innings of work in 2004 is going to be a tall order, many seem to brush it off. I think the difficulty of replacing this trio is coming into focus. I am not panicking because I think there is reason to believe Matt Mantei will be a very good pitcher this season. But this bullpen is not deep and adding another quality arm ought to at least be on the radar over at Yawkey Way.

Matt Clement and Ted Lilly for the series today.

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By Sully, 4/8/2005 9:15 am

MLB Extra Innings is offering its free preview this week and though I am logging an average of only about 3.5 hours of sleep per night, I am enjoying a lot of great baseball. Last night was no exception. A number of pitchers making their respective 2005 debuts, some with new teams and some in the same digs, turned in sparkling performances.

- In San Francisco, Jeff Weaver threw 8 shutout innings as the Dodgers beat the Giants 6-0 to take the season opening series 2-1. Interestingly, not a peep from this guy in the LA Times since Wednesday.

- In San Diego, both new Pirate Mark Redman and 2004 ERA champ Jake Peavy pitched beautifully, as the game wasn’t settled until San Diego notched the contest’s first run in the bottom of the 10th. Peavy struck out 10 in 6 and 2/3rds.

- In the game I was most excited to watch, Dan Haren and Erik Bedard hooked up and provided a glimpse into why I am so excited about both Oakland and Baltimore. From the 2nd through the 7th inning, the two teams combined for 2 hits. Haren mixed a sharp, biting slider with a 95 MPH fastball that moved. Bedard lived on the corners, threw some nice sliders to the lefthanders and even turned over some change-ups. Eric Byrnes untied a 1-1 game in the eighth with a 3-run home run off of Steve Kline.

Tim Hudson and Aaron Harang also stood out yesterday, the sort of day you don’t mind the Red Sox having off. Baseball is in full swing now – no more quirky off-days and movie premieres (serenity now!). Enjoy the weekend series north of the border.

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By Sully, 4/7/2005 8:37 am

Game 3 of the season was another dooze, as Boston, playing without Manager Terry Francona, defeated the New York Yankees 7-3 to salvage the final game of the series. David Ortiz continued to mash and before leaving the game with a leg cramp (don’t ask), Kevin Millar had three hits (more on that later). Encouraging were the respective games Edgar Renteria and Trot Nixon had. Renteria was on the ball all afternoon and delivered a critical ninth inning single off of Mariano Rivera to extend Boston’s lead to 3 runs. Hey, he may not be a bust after all! For his part, Nixon was on base 3 out of 5 plate appearances, working Mike Mussina for two free passes and Tanyon Sturtze for another. One more cause for enthusiasm was the game Tim Wakefield turned in. He made two mistakes all day, inexplicably going to the curveball against A-Rod in the 4th and leaving a knuckler up to Tino Martinez in the very next inning. Both hit solo home runs. He also walked two and gave up a single to His Clutchness Derek Jeter. Other than that, it was smooth sailing for Wake. Tim Wakefield out-pitched Mike Mussina all afternoon long, a pitcher that outstrips him in name cache but hardly in on-field value these days.

ERA+ Totals since 2002:

Wakefield

2002: 157, 163 IP
2003: 115, 202 IP
2004: 100, 188 IP

Moose

2002: 108, 216 IP
2003: 129, 215 IP
2004: 98, 165 IP

Mussina has the far more impressive full body of work but I think differentiating the two at this point in their careers is pretty tough. I am not sure which guy I’d rather have. Hard to portend how it will all shake down when Wake Miller gets healthy but if Wakefield continues to pitch as he did yesterday, it will be difficult to push him out to the bullpen.

Yesterday was not without its moments of frustration. Mike Timlin was awful. He walked two, hit another and gave up a sac fly to Gary Sheffield. Manny Ramirez, despite his first hit of the season, looked lost again. Can’t say I am all that worried about Manny, though. The most damning gaffe yesterday came from fill-in Manager Brad Mills, and we can only hope his thought process is not all that representative of Tito’s. After Kevin Millar left the game with a cramp in his leg (dude, just get in shape for crissakes), Mills looked up and down his bench for a replacement and decided on Big Stupid Swing himself, Dave McCarty. Indefensible. Why Kevin Youkilis is on this roster is beyond me if it is not to fill in for Millar in a spot like that. Yeah he’s there for a spot start to spell Mueller from time to time but he also needs to be the full-time backup first baseman until Roberto Petagine gets healthy. Watching David McCarty, Edgar Renteria and Doug Mirabelli come up in the eighth gave Sox fans an idea of what the Ruben Sierra-Tony Clark-Miguel Cairo clown-show must have felt like to Yanks fans last fall. Painful.

The Sox move on to Toronto now, whose bullpen coughed up the game to the D-Rays in Tampa yesterday.

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By Mullet, 4/6/2005 7:41 am

At a purely visceral, emotional level, the 0-2 start for the Red Sox was about the worst possible way to start the season: versus the Yankees, with their big off-season acquisitions lined up against ours, coming out on the losing end each time. Yesterday’s 4-3 loss was probably even more frustrating than Sunday’s manhandling. Facing Carl Pavano, who many (including myself) encouraged the Red Sox to stay far far away from like he had the herpes (which, after dating Alyssa Milano, he might), Red Sox hitters flailed away at his splitter like they’d never seen it before, seemingly forgetting that they have a teammate who throws an identical pitch. Matt Clement lived up to our worst expectations, showing spotty control, running deep into counts in nearly every at-bat. He was done after just one out in the 5th having walked 3, beaning Jeter, and throwing 91 pitches to get just 13 outs. Edgar Renteria had much of Red Sox Nation crying out for Orlando Cabrera, grounding into a double play to kill a scoring chance for the Sox and committing his first error of the season. And Renteria didn’t do one crazy hand gesture.

It wasn’t all bad news for the Sox. Clement did strike out a batter per inning, showing some filthy stuff when he could get it near the zone. Clement battled out of a bases loaded jam in the 2nd, getting Tino Martinez to foul out and then Tony Womack to meekly pop out to 2nd. In the 4th, Clement made ARod look foolish on a pitch out of the zone to kill another Yankees opportunity. David Ortiz continued his early season tear, crushing a pitch by Pavano (who is becoming more and more of a dead ringer for Dominic Purcell of “John Doe” infamy) to deep center. The Sox continue to be able to get to previously invincible Mariano Rivera, this time with Jason Varitek doing the damage. Unfortunately, Varitek’s homer in the top of the 9th was just the setup for the kick in the balls in the bottom of the 9th when Jeter took Foulke deep to close it out.

Still, it’s just two games. There’s no way Manny Ramirez is going to continue on his current pace of batting .000 with 324 strike outs. Edgar Renteria will come around and start earning his keep, though I hope Terry Francona realizes that he should never bat above the 8 spot.These Red Sox seem to work at their own pace, and while it can be infuriating to watch, things seemed to have worked out ok last year (this is the first and only time I’ll use the World Series Champion excuse).

We’re only at game 3 in a long season. The good news about baseball is that with a 162 games, the better team generally does win out in the end. I’m willing to bet that will be the Sox.

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By Sully, 4/5/2005 4:29 pm

Trot Nixon vs. Southpaws since 2002: .220/.293/.348

Jay Payton vs. Righthanders since 2002: .295/.344/.460

- A couple of pre-game rounds on me at Copperfields for the Dewey’s House reader that comes closest to guessing the amount of times the word “captain” appears in the Globe and Herald sports pages tomorrow morning.

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By Sully,

To be perfectly honest, an article of this sort doesn’t really bother me as much as something like this. At least Mike DiGiovanna is giving some honest analysis the ol’ college try here. I’ll spare everyone another blow-by-blow but the premise of the piece is that the Angels have a better outfield than either New York or Boston, thanks to three things:

1) Balance. DiGiovanna thinks the Angels have a better outfield than Boston because they have three excellent players. After all, Trot Nixon is not “elite”.

2) Counting Stats. Garret Anderson has been able to amass impressive numbers by playing everyday (up until 2004) and coming to bat with runners on base. He is a good slugger but a rather pedestrian on-base man for a corner outfielder. Finley is similar, enjoying a significant slugging advantage over Johnny Damon while Damon does a better job of reaching base.

3) Defense. It’s never really explained in the article how he arrives at the conclusion, but it is just assumed that the Angels enjoy a significant advantage defensively out there. I don’t see it. I can’t find any evidence that Trot Nixon is worse than Vladimir Guerrero in right field. Johnny Damon is a whole lot better than Steve Finley in center, by just about the same margin that Garret Anderson is better than Manny Ramirez in left field.

So if they are a defensive wash (or close to it), what is the true differential between the two outfields with respect to offensive ability? While counting stats have their merits, they fail to account for a number of contextual items necessary to gain a clearer understanding of a player’s true value. Runs and RBI’s are dependent on the ability of an individual’s teammates. HR’s, hits, doubles and triples fail to account for how many outs it takes a player to collect the respective totals. DiGiovanna refers to Nixon as “not among the game’s elite” while calling Anderson “one of the game’s most consistent run producers”. Well let’s look at the respective players’ RC/27 figures since 2002 to determine who the better run producer is.

Garret Anderson
2002: 6.63
2003: 7.00
2004: 5.73

Trot Nixon
2002: 5.46
2003: 8.57
2004: 7.07

Now, Anderson has more plate appearances than Nixon over that time frame, and there is certainly an argument that he is the superior player because of this fact. Just as counting stats fail to account for teammate dependence and out-making, rate stats fail to account for playing time. I am contesting the conviction, however, with which DiGiovanna declares Nixon average and Anderson consistent. I happen to think Nixon is the better player but at the very least, a reasonable mind would have to conclude the two are in the same neighborhood.

To gain a complete understanding of each outfield’s respective abilities, I thought I would take a look at some more numbers. Without pro-rating for plate appearances, I have just taken each player’s respective OPS+ figures for the past three seasons in order to come up with a 3-year average. This is a very quick-and-dirty means of concluding anything but it does provide some context, both in the form of Park Effects and league environment.

Manny Ramirez: 190, 160, 152 – 167
Johnny Damon: 113, 94, 117 – 108
Trot Nixon: 114, 149, 123 – 129
Boston Outfield Average: 134.67

Garret Anderson: 130, 137, 105 – 124
Steve Finley: 120, 113, 110 – 114
Vladimir Guerrero: 162, 144, 154 – 153
Los Angeles Outfield Average: 130.33

Here is how I would rank the six players going into 2005:

1) Vladimir Guerrero
2) Manny Ramirez
3) Johnny Damon
4) Trot Nixon
5) Garret Anderson
6) Steve Finley

The Angels have a nice team and will likely contend for much of the year. What’s wrong with just leaving it at that?

Comments (1)

By Sully,

To be perfectly honest, an article of this sort doesn’t really bother me as much as something like this. At least Mike DiGiovanna is giving some honest analysis the ol’ college try here. I’ll spare everyone another blow-by-blow but the premise of the piece is that the Angels have a better outfield than either New York or Boston, thanks to three things:
1) Balance. DiGiovanna thinks the Angels have a better outfield than Boston because they have three excelent players out there and Trot Nixon is not “elite”.
2) Counting Stats. Garret Anderson has been able to amass impressive numbers by playing everyday (up until 2004) and coming to bat with runners on base. He is a good slugger and a rather pedestrian on-base man for a corner outfielder. Finley is similar, enjoying a significant slugging advantage over Johnny Damon while Damon does a better job of reaching base.

Comments (1)

By Sully, 4/4/2005 2:47 pm

12 K’s through 5. God I love that guy.

Sigh.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 4/3/2005 11:03 pm

And so it begins

The Red Sox affectively broke their eight game winning streak by playing perfectly awful baseball, which I suppose is to be expected given the earliness of the season.

Three n00b’s played significant roles in the outcome of the game. Edgar Renteria stunk balls, but every player stinks balls at one point or another. He dropped that grounder that he should have corralled, and he made an ill-advised throw while falling backwards, but his glove will still be there. More distressing is the hacking into a double play. Where I still think Renteria is a better hitter than Orlando Cabrera is, Renteria still shares Cabrera’s affliction for following up good at bats with frustrating ones. Edgar played like poop, but it’s not something to worry about long term.

David Wells is slightly more upsetting. Wells’ value is being league average, and chewing up innings. If Wells pitches 200 innings, at a 4.50 ERA (or so), than the year is a success for him. Unfortunately, that profiles as a fourth starter, not someone who is being counted on to help replace Pedro Martinez. The road for David will be rocky because he is the subject of unreal expectations of being an anchor for the rotation. His role is that of a support pitcher.

Matt Mantei is coming off an injury, sucked balls, and the game was out of hand already. Why mention him? Because when he’s walking guys and giving up home runs, he’s not helping the team win. We’ll be back to the McCarver group right after this….

Games like this, I just shrug at. Because of the dizzying height that the Sox were on last year, and the fact that this is the Yankees, I’m sure the importance of this game will be blown out of proportion. Simply put, this is just one out of 162. There is nothing too alarming about the quality of the game, because heck, we lost the last Opening Day against a team the Sox were much better than and went and won the World Series. The best way to get over stinkers is just to keep repeating that to myself. One game at a time, and whatever cliché you think might fit there.

The old row is that you will win 54 games, lose 54 games, and what you do with the other 54 determines the success of the season. This is just one game in the Loss column.

On to more pleasant news, Sully and I would like to introduce Ryan Toohil as a permanent contributor to Dewey’s House. He wrote a sizeable chunk of the Team Previews that I know you all enjoyed under the pseudonym Mullet. Read his stuff, it’s just good, especially if you like pop culture references and Virginia Tech.

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By Sully,

Boston Red Sox
2004: 98-64 2nd in American League East, defeated the Anaheim Angels 3-0 in the ALDS, defeated the New York Yankees 4-3 in the ALCS and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-0 in the World Effing Series

Projected Lineup:
CF Johnny Damon
RF Trot Nixon
LF Manny Ramirez
DH David Ortiz
SS Edgar Renteria
1B Kevin Millar
C Jason Varitek
3B Bill Mueller
2B Mark Bellhorn

Projected Rotation:
Curt Schilling
Matt Clement
Davis Wells
Bronson Arroyo
Tim Wakefield

Closer:
Keith Foulke

In 2005 the Boston Red Sox, for the first time in 86 years, will look to defend a Major League Baseball World Series Championship. Major League Baseball’s postseason constitutes a succession of one enthralling contest after another with prestige, bragging rights and expensive jewelry on the line. To emerge victorious is to fulfill a life’s dream and nothing should ever be taken away from a World Series winner. But the reality is that the truest test has passed by almost a month by the time the winning team records the final out (or crosses the plate in the case of ’60, ’93 and ’97) of the Fall Classic. Baseball is a sport whose teams are meant to sort themselves out over the long run. As a general rule of thumb, the best teams win 60% of the time and the bad teams 40%. Your ragtag bunch, on a given day, could beat my murderer’s row. So you lengthen the season to ensure you are crowning a fitting champion. Battle it out for 162 and see where everyone ends up. Playoff expansion has compromised this unique feature of baseball – that the absence of a first-order performance during the regular season precludes the possibility of a championship. Eight teams now qualify for Major League Baseball postseason each year, a quadrupling in just over 35 years. Well for the last seven seasons, the Boston Red Sox have failed the truest test, completing the regular season in the very same position; second place. While I fall hook, line and sinker for the prestige and drama of a World Series title just like anybody else, there is still much to accomplish for the Boston Red Sox. In addition to capturing another World Series crown, the 2005 Boston Red Sox will look to win the American League East for the first time since 1995. What follows is an evaluation of their chances of accomplishing these goals in the form of a player-by-player look at the roster and an analysis of how they stack up to their peers.

A primer on how stats will be presented. We will list a player’s Batting Average / On-Base Average / Slugging Average, both for his career and 2004. We will also list his OPS+ for his career and 2004, a figure that adds a player’s on-base and slugging, divides it by the league’s average OPS, multiplies by 100 and then adjusts for Park Factors.

Catcher
Jason Varitek

Career: .271/.347/.451 – 104 OPS+
2004 : .296/.390/.482 – 121

Varitek is 32 and coming off of the best season of his career. As is the custom in Major League Baseball, he was thusly awarded a lucrative contract retroactively compensating him for good, hard work. In and of itself the deal was a terrible one. Varitek is not going to get better from here and this contract will almost definitely appear ridiculous at some point, be it midway through 2006 on the disastrous end or early 2008 in the rosiest scenario. With a little context, however, the contract becomes defensible. The pitchers are comfortable with Varitek, fans revere him as the heart-and soul of the working class faction of the roster and he sort of just seems like a good guy. Further, he does appear to bring more value than his numbers show and the Red Sox can afford an albatross or two with the amount of good, young, cheap talent coming down the Minor League pike. Here’s hoping he can keep up the tremendous offensive work because his defense, and in particular throwing runners out, appears to already be showing signs of slippage.

Doug Mirabelli

Career: .242/.331/.426 – 97
2004: .281/.368/.525 – 124

Doug Mirabelli is probably baseball’s 15th to 20th best catcher. Employing him as a backup catcher is a luxury. He will also once again be Tim Wakefield’s personal catcher and the Red Sox will once again experience little drop-off when he dons the tools of ignorance. Mirabelli is a lefty masher, as evidenced by his .532 slugging average against southpaws over the last three seasons. Hopefully, the Sox will have the roster flexibility to occasionally utilize Mirabelli in a pinch-hitting role against tough lefthanders.

First Base
Kevin Millar

Career: .292/.366/.491 – 121
2004: .297/.383/.474 – 117

Here are Millar’s month-by-month OPS numbers since he joined the Red Sox (Bear with…I’ll get the hang of this formatting stuff).

2003 2004
April .912 642
May .749 .841
June 1.146 .737
July .672 1.067
August .771 .862
Sept. .700 .983

He followed a great start to his Red Sox tenure with six straight horrendous months, during which he was a dreadfully obvious hole in the Red Sox attack. Then after opening his hitting stance during batting practice at SAFECO field in July of 2004, he went gangbusters. On July 19, Millar was slugging .384. By July 31, he had raised his slugging average to .456.

It’s hard to say what we ought to expect out of Millar. I’d submit because of his body type and relative shortage of athleticism that he is as good a candidate as any for the Sox to post some serious regression this season. Smartly, the Red Sox hedged themselves by acquiring Roberto Petagine, who will open the year on the Minor League disabled list but should be ready to play some time in May. Petagine’s performance track record in Japan is such that it is difficult to differentiate him from Hideki Matsui and I think we can all agree that Matsui turned out just fine over here.

David McCarty

Career: .242/.304/.371 – 74
2004: .258/.327/.404 – 85

Bad, bad, bad. He sucks, stinks and sucks some more. Big Stupid Swing, as Mikael over at Baseball Think Factory fondly calls McCarty, has compromising photos of Tito and Theo, right? How else to explain McCarty’s roster spot? Seemingly a very nice man, hopefully he can stay around the organization as a coach of some sort when Adam Stern or Roberto Petagine returns.

Second Base
Mark Bellhorn

Career: .242/.354/.412 – 99
2004: .264/.373/.444 – 107

The 107 OPS+ in 2004 doesn’t do the season he had justice. First, even without further interpretation, a 107 OPS+ for a position such as 2nd Base is darn good. Second, his 107 OPS+ underrates his play because OPS overrates slugging while underrating on-base. The classic hypothetical example to illustrate said point is this; team A can slug 1.000 in a given inning and have a 1-0 lead with a solo home run and three strikeouts. Team B can post an on-base of 1.000 and they would score an infinite amount of runs. Though it is a reliable quick and dirty metric, applying equal weight to the two statistics compromises some of OPS’s accuracy. Bellhorn is the starting 2nd Baseman on the Three True Outcomes All-Star Team (walk, strikeout, home run) and should continue to be so in 2005. Grin and bear the strikeouts, resist the urge to postulate that they are any more or less damaging than any other kind of out and you will end up enjoying a wonderfully intriguing player making the most of his abilities.

Ramon Vazquez

Career: .262/.334/.344 – 85
2004: .235/.297/.322 – 66

Here’s an instance in which the numbers posted above fail to tell Vazquez’s story. He essentially held down a starting post in 2002 and 2003 and performed right around average. He was fine. In 2004, however, he was bothered by a number of injuries and lost playing time to young phenom Khalil Greene and Jackie Robinson, who decided to play under the surname of Mark Loretta last season. Expect Vazquez to be a valuable bench entity, someone to be counted upon for late inning defensive duties, spot starts and extended injury replacements. He’s a guy to whom you can hand the Utility Infielder keys and rest assured he is not going to crash the damn thing Enrique Wilson-style into a discotheque.

Shortstop
Edgar Renteria

Career: .289/.346/.400 – 96
2004: .287/.327/.401 – 90

Played like an MVP in 2003 and like Cesar Izturis in 2004. Funny, that. He posted OPS+ seasons of 116 and 131 in 2002 and 2003 respectively and I think he can reasonably be expected to bounce back to somewhere around his 2002 levels. He is a good player, albeit an overpaid one now, still on the right side of 30 and will be playing amongst a group of guys that hit, and hit and hit some more. I am sure someone could whip up a study refuting the point but I have always been of the mind that hitting, to some degree, is contagious. Mosey around with some sluggers and you’re more inclined to become one yourself. Worked for Bill Mueller and David Ortiz if not Russ Branyan. Why not Renteria?

Third Base
Bill Mueller

Career: .292/.374/.425 – 110
2004: .283/.365/.446 – 106

Though he has experienced a nice power surge in his two seasons as a Red Sox, Mueller, like Bellhorn, is an offensive asset because of his ability to get on base while playing the position he does. The latter point, his defensive position, is becoming more muted however as the hot corner experiences a resurgence. Setting aside for a moment that he is now 34, Mueller will begin to lose ground simply because of his new peers. What had been a position whose average numbers mirrored those of the entire league’s is now a position that features some of the game’s very best. The average 3rd baseman hits better than the average baseball player now. 3rd base is no longer the hot corner of Joe Randa, Corey Koskie, Shane Halter, Jeff Cirillo and Vinny Castilla but rather the hot corner of Alex Rodriguez, Hank Blalock, Eric Chavez, Melvin Mora and Aramis Ramirez. These dudes mash. The Red Sox would do well to post league-average production from 3rd in 2005.

Kevin Youkilis

Career: .260/.367/.413 – 99

Youkilis did a nice job for the Sox in 2004 and should once again be an asset in 2005. It’s hard to say just how he will be used and it does seem a shame that such a talent would not get regular at-bats, but better to have some ability stocked up on your 25-man than not. I am not sure he is long for the Major League roster, however. When Rule V’er Adam Stern and import Roberto Petagine return, Youkilis, along with McCarty, figures to be the odd man out. Until then, expect him to spell Mueller from time to time and represent a viable bench option for Terry Francona should a LOOGY appear late in a ballgame against one of his righty-mashing lefties.

Left Field
Manny Ramirez

Career: .316/.411/.599 – 156
2004: .308/.397/.613 – 152

There’s no reason to think Manny won’t rake again. He appears fit and has stayed relatively injury-free for a while now. There are some signs, however, that he may not be the top-flight superstar to whom we have grown accustomed for all that much longer. Consider Ramirez’s OPS+ totals over the last five seasons:

2000: 185
2001: 162
2002: 190
2003: 160
2004: 152

A 152 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at but a regression trend is nothing to ignore, either. Now 33 years old, Manny isn’t getting any younger, which means he probably ain’t getting any better. Further threatening Manny’s demise is the very nature of ballplayer he is – slugging and relatively burly. These types’ll fall off a cliff on you. No need to worry about him this year but sooner than many think that $20 million-per will start to hurt.

Centerfield
Johnny Damon

Career: .287/.351/.431 – 101
2004: .304/.380/.477 – 117

About Damon last pre-season, I had this to say:

“The 2000 version of Johnny Damon is not coming back. I thought he might in 2002, clung to the hope in 2003, and am now perfectly comfortable with what he is; an above average offensive centerfielder and an excellent defensive one. Here are Damon’s 2000 and 2003 numbers in BA / OBP / SLG (OPS+ added for good measure this time around) format.

2000: .327 / .382 / .495 (117)
2003: .273 / .345 / .405 (94)

He’s just not the same player anymore.”

A soothsayer I am not.

He was basically the exact same player last year as he was in 2000. When hitting at such levels he’s a bona fide star. Damon saved the Sox a chunk of runs in the field while creating a whole bunch more than the average centerfielder at the plate. I don’t think he has another 2004 in him, however. Look for him to post something closer to an .800 OPS than .875.

Right Field
Trot Nixon

Career: .280/.367/.496 – 121
2004: .315/.377/.510 – 123

It never ceases to amaze me how underrated this guy is. Go ahead and try to differentiate him from, say, Paul O’Neill. Then go tell your best Yankee-fan pal that Trot Nixon is every bit the player Paul O’Neill was and see how well that goes over. Four out of every five days, Trot Nixon plays like a superstar, posting tremendous on-base totals and matching them with impressive slugging figures. Quietly, he has also become a proficient defensive right fielder. The well-documented problem with Nixon of course is that he cannot hit lefties. Thankfully, the Red Sox employ a General Manager hell-bent on optimally complementing each of his players’ strengths and weaknesses. Which brings us to…

Jay Payton

Career: .285/.335/.443 – 100
2004: .260/.326/.367 – 86

Payton will start ahead of Nixon against southpaws and see late-inning work as Tito’s most viable offensive bench entity on days right-handers start. Payton has hit at a .275/.346/.461 clip over the last three seasons against lefties. The Nixon-Payton platoon combo should be an effective one. Four out of five days the Sox will get Gary Sheffield production while the other day they will get Torii Hunter pop. Not bad.

Designated Hitter
David Ortiz

Career: .278/.359/.517 – 123
2004: .301/.380/.603 – 145

Ladies and gentlemen we have a superstar. Ortiz now sports the numbers to back up his imposing figure at the plate. There’s no way to pitch Ortiz. He has the quick hands to turn on an inside fastball (see 2004 WS, Game 1) and the solid approach that allows him to take an off-speed pitch the other way (see 2004 ALDS, Game 3). Ortiz, by virtue of his unconscious postseason (.400/.515/.782), will forever be a cult hero around these parts. Just 29 years of age, look for continued great play from Ortiz in 2005.

For pitchers, I will just post their ERA+ figures for both their careers and 2004. ERA+ is arrived at by taking the league average ERA, dividing it into the individual’s ERA, multiplying by 100 and then adjusting for Park Factors. Anything above 100 is average while anythin below is, well, below.

Starting Pitching

Curt Schilling

Career: 131
2004: 150

It is hard to predict much drop-off here but there are some warning signs. First, there’s the ankle. He says he feels good and he has looked fine to me in his outings but it’s difficult to know how much, or even if it will at all, affect his pitching. Then there’s the weight. He’s fatter now. Probably not a problem but it might be. And finally there is the looming question about whether or not he can carry a pitching staff by himself…rrrriiiight. What possible line of logic allows for that to make even a little sense? Because it gets published in credible publications all the freaking time {bangs head against desk}. Why wouldn’t he be able to pitch without Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez on the roster? Were they out there on the mound with him and I just couldn’t see them? I honestly can’t even drum up a hypothetical as to why this would make a lick of sense.

Schilling should be one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball once he returns.

David Wells

Career: 110
2004: 108

A lot of the projection mechanisms out there have Wells pegged for a major drop-off but I don’t see it. Remember, projection systems seek to identify comparable players to derive their numbers but seriously, as Eric Van said to me at the SoSH Trophy Bash, “how many fat 42-year old great athletes that walk about a batter per month did PECOTA have to compare Wells to”? 200 league-average innings would be fine with me.

Matt Clement

Career: 98
2004: 123

Clement still walks more guys than you would like him to but he is quietly showing signs of becoming a top-flight pitcher. Check out his BB/9 trend.

1999: 4.28
2000: 5.49
2001: 4.52
2002: 3.73
2003: 3.52
2004: 3.83

It’s acceptable now, especially when you consider that he is one of the most dynamic strikeout pitchers in baseball. Baseball-reference.com lists San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt as Clement’s closest comp through age 29. Here are Schmidt’s numbers in his 30 and 31 seasons.

30: 207.7 IP, 183 ERA+
31: 225 IP, 139 ERA+

One of the mainstream throwaway storylines associated with Clement is that he is enigmatic, aloof or lacks character in some fashion. Pay it no mind. It’s nothing more than simpletons grasping at straws trying to figure out why Clement only won 9 games last year. You know, because it has nothing to do with the fact the Cubs scored just 4.03 runs a game in Clement’s 2004 starts.

Bronson Arroyo

Career: 101
2004: 123

I really hope he doesn’t go back to the bullpen when Wade Miller returns. If given the ball every fifth game, Arroyo has the potential to be among the American League’s top 15 starters or so. Unfortunately, because tenure-king Tim Wakefield is also in the starting pitching rotation, they may reward him with the good-soldier rotation spot ahead of Arroyo.

Tim Wakefield

Career: 109
2004: 100

Your guess is as good as mine. I can’t imagine age will catch up to Wake as it does for the ordinary flame-thrower so continued reliability seems to be in order. 175 innings around league average would be tremendous.

Wade Miller

Career: 116
2004: 129

Whatever the Sox get will be both gravy and very good. When Miller pitches he is among the best in the biz. The problem is he didn’t pitch very often in 2004 and shoulder injuries tend to recur. Targeted for a mid-May return, he’s the difference between the Sox winning the division by 3-5 games or 8-10 games, in my opinion.

Bullpen

Player by player profiles would be an exercise in tedium for the bullpen so I will forego them for an overview. The bullpen is Boston’s weakest area, which is kind of like saying Sangria is the worst bar on the Hermosa Beach pier. All of Boston’s components are good just as all of the establishments on The Pier are a blast. Keith Foulke returns as the relief ace and even if he doesn’t sport the charisma of K-Rod or Gagne, he’s damn near as effective. Mike Timlin and Alan Embree will play chief set-up men again, and should be fine in the role. Here’s where the Sox drop off a bit. While the Yanks have the fantastic Tom Gordon backing Mariano Rivera and the Angels can go to Scott Shields to support K-Rod, Timlin and Embree, though dependable, are not of their ilk. The potential X-factor is Matt Mantei, who will be starring as Wade Miller in a bullpen near you. Like Miller, what Mantei provides will be gravy. Also like Miller, what Mantei provides will in all likelihood be fantastic. Mantei has averaged just 33 innings a year since 1995 but also sports a shiny 11.37 K/9 figure. Rounding out the bullpen will be John Halama and Mike Myers, the former playing long man and the latter taking up the LOOGY (Lefthanded One Out GuY) post. It’s a decent unit without Mantei and a very good one with him.

Outlook

In 2004, the Red Sox scored 949 runs and gave up 768 for a Pythagorean Record of 96-66. So the question is, what happens to these figures in 2005? On the offensive side, there is really only one looming issue and that is regression attributable to age. I would submit that Jason Varitek, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Millar and Johnny Damon are all good bets to fall back to the pack a little bit. That’s the bad news. The good news is as follows. First, Trot Nixon figures to be healthy for the entire season. Second, Edgar Renteria ought to out-produce the combination of Pokey Reese, Nomar Garciaparra and Orlando Cabrera. Third, the Red Sox depth is better. Jay Payton is an improvement upon Gabe Kapler, just as Ramon Vazquez is an improvement upon Pokey Reese. I’ll call it a straight wash and project 950 runs. On the run prevention side, let’s start with the potential problems. First and foremost is health. If Curt Schilling only makes 25 starts, Wade Miller doesn’t contribute much and David Wells’s back fails to hold up, the starting staff will give back a few runs. Another matter is the 90 innings of steady work that Curtis Leskanic, Ramiro Mendoza and Scott Williamson provided. Without a healthy Matt Mantei, I don’t see how they replace that. On the positive side, the Red Sox have made clear upgrades over the 2004 versions of Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez. Matt Clement, David Wells, Wade Miller and a full season in the rotation out of Bronson Arroyo should go a long way to significantly improving the 400 innings of 4.59 ERA pitching that Lowe and Martinez chipped in last year. Because I see great things for Clement, 125 innings out of Miller and another 50 out of Mantei, I’ll go ahead and say they make a 25 to 30-run improvement, giving up 740. Applying the Pythagorean Formula, this would give the Red Sox a record of 101-61, good for a comfortable American League East division crown – their first since 1995.

Enjoy the season everybody. These are truly the glory days.

Top 10 Prospects
1. Hanley Ramirez SS
2. Jon Papelbon RHP
3. Dustin Pedroia SS
4. Brandon Moss OF
5. Jon Lester LHP
6. Abe Alvarez LHP
7. Ian Bladergoren 1B
8. Kelly Shoppach C
9. Christian Lara SS
10. Anibal Sanchez RHP

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By Sully, 4/2/2005 3:27 pm

New York Yankees
2004: 101-61 1st in the AL East – Defeated the Minnesota Twins 3-1 in ALDS, Lost to the Boston Red Sox 4-3 in the ALCS

Projected lineup:
SS Derek Jeter
3B Alex Rodriguez
RF Gary Sheffield
LF Hideki Matsui
C Jorge Posada
DH Jason Giambi
1B Tino Martinez
2B Tony Womack

Projected Rotation:
Randy Johnson
Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Kevin Brown
Jaret Wright

Closer:
Mariano Rivera

Outlook:

While the Yankees seem to be operating like a team without a plan, who could really blame them for a knee-jerk kind of off-season? After losing four straight games to the Red Sox as no other team in the history of major professional sports had, you knew the Boss was going to make sure there were changes. Problem is, change devoid of logic doesn’t really get you anywhere. First the good. Randy Johnson is the type of player you do whatever you have to do in order to acquire him should he become available. He was, and the Yankees paid dearly in the form of two good players (Javie Vazquez and Dioneer Navarro) and a ridiculous contract extension (2 years, $32 million for the 41 year old Unit). Acquiring Tino Martinez to replace Tony Clark was certainly advisable. That was good. Flipping the Run Fairy™ (Felix Heredia) for Mike Stanton and bringing in Felix Rodriguez in exchange for Kenny Lofton probably will help too. Now the bad. The Tony Womack signing is patently indefensible – just awful. Signing Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright to the deals they did were the clearest signals to me that this is a Yankee organization that might not be doing its homework the way they ought to be. It’s as though they scoured the 2004 pitching leaderboards and decided that Pavano and Wright were the two best options out there. Problem is, 2004 was really the only year that either has ever pitched at those respective levels. Of all Major League pitchers,Wright and Pavano may rank 1-2 for best candidates to significantly regress. If the Pavano and Wright signings were indicative of a prevailing analytical laziness in the Bronx (or is it Tampa?), the failure to sign Carlos Beltran suggested that all the hard work in the world may not have done them any good. They seem to lack the ability to properly identify strengths and weaknesses. Bernie Williams is the worst defensive centerfielder in baseball and no longer swings the potent stick to counteract his brutal glove work. That the best free agent centerfielder in recent memory was available this off-season seemed a godsend to the Yankees and their fans but he was passed over for a 41 year-old and a couple of average starters. I don’t think it is too harsh to suggest that the New York Yankees baseball operations staff is currently operating in a misguided manner. The good news for a team as wealthy as the Bombers is that you can still end up with a hell of a team, even when the guys assembling it don’t seem to really have a clue.

The Yankees had the best lineup in baseball last year and figure to have a very good one once again. It’s hard to peg much improvement from anyone, though. Derek Jeter had his best defensive season and a good offensive one as well. He’ll be 31 in June so it’s a stretch to project much improvement. What’s worse, his defense figures to fall back a good deal as well. Alex Rodriguez may improve, but he will be on the wrong side of 30 this season as well. He took a small step back last year but I get the sense he may have a huge year. A lot of talking heads have been questioning his character and I have to think that gets A-Rod’s dander up. For Gary Sheffield and Jorge Posada, you would have to figure each falls back to the pack a bit due to age. Hideki Matsui is now an established star. 7-8-9 gets dicey for New York. Your guess is as good as mine on Giambi. I just have no idea. He could have 600 plate appearances with an .850 OPS or he could have 250 with a .750. Nothing would surprise me. Tino Martinez is another one that’s tough to project. He experienced a resurgence of sorts last season but I would expect his numbers to fall more in line with his 2002-2003 mediocre figures. Tony Womack rounds out the lineup. He’s very bad. Like .274/.319/.362 for his career bad.

This aging Yankees lineup will have little support in the form of a reliable bench. Andy Phillips aside, there is almost no depth to speak of. Bubba Crosby, Ruben Sierra, John Flaherty and Rey Sanchez do not a good bench make.

On the pitching side, there is a mounting consensus that the Yankees are better than the Red Sox. Consider these quotes from various publications.

From the Boston Globe’s Jackie McMullen

I want what the Yankees have. I want their starting rotation of Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Kevin Brown. I want Mariano Rivera in my bullpen (although I must confess, Keith Foulke ain’t too shabby). Pitching wins games.

From the Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy

The Yankees at this hour get the edge in the starting rotation…

From espn.com’s Bob Klapisch

The Boss let those Game 7 images propel him into a cash-crazed winter, capturing his personal holy grail, Randy Johnson, and adding Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. The result? The Yankees finally have the starting pitching to match the Sox in a short series, not to mention a Game 7 doomsday scenario.

And finally, Dewey’s House favorite, Tony Massarotti

(The) New York Yankees have better pitching than the Red Sox.

An opinion? No, no, no. That’s a fact. Many Boston sports followers are still inhaling the fumes from the outbreak of local championships, and they’re so high now that they cannot see straight. That has been the annoying side effect in this golden era of Bill Belichick and Theo Epstein, two leaders who have cultivated such blind faith that nobody bothers to question them anymore.

Again, I don’t see it. Randy is great and Mussina is good but what about the other three? Here are some ERA+ figures.

2002 2003 2004
Pavano 79 94 137
Brown 79 169 110
Wright 29 54 131

Pavano and Wright’s seasons certainly appear to be anomalies. As for Brown, he looks even worse than the 110 ERA+ would suggest. Against teams other than Tampa Bay, Brown sported a 4.69 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. A combined league-average ERA from these three is about the high end as I see it. So the starting pitching is good but one in which injury and regression risk abound. Compounding the problem is the lacking starting pitching depth. Tanyon Sturtze should not be starting games for a championship caliber baseball team.

The Yankees should have an excellent bullpen. The additions of Rodriguez and Stanton should soften the load on Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon and Rivera. The three tired as 2004 wore on but that won’t happen again. In the bullpen is where New York enjoys its biggest advantage over Boston, not in the rotation as some would have you believe.

The Yankees will score fewer runs this year because of age regression and a certain black hole known as Womack. I think their run prevention will only improve marginally, as they will have to scramble to fill in starts for aging pitchers that are bound to miss games with injuries. Call it 885 and 790.

Prediction: 92-70

Top 10 Prospects
1. Eric Duncan 3B
2. Phillip Hughes RHP
3. Chien-Ming Wang RHP
4. Marcos Vechionacci INF
5. Steven White RHP
6. Bronson Sardinha 3B/OF
7. Christian Garcia RHP
8. Tyler Clippard RHP
9. Melky Cabrera OF
10. Colter Bean RHP

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By Jimmy, 4/1/2005 7:59 pm

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2004: 70-91, 4th place in the AL East

Projected Lineup:
LF Carl Crawford
CF Alex Sanchez
RF Aubrey Huff
DH Josh Phelps
1B Travis Lee
SS Julio Lugo
3B Alex Gonzalez
2B Jorge Cantu
C Toby Hall

Projected Rotation:
Dewon Brazleton
Scott Kazmir
Mark Hendrickson
Rob Bell
Hideo Nomo

Closer:
Danys Baez

Outlook:
In order to celebrate their best season in their franchise’s history, the Devil Rays through a ticker tape parade through Ybor City, sipping from the can of Natural Lite of victory. First year with 70 wins! First year out of the basement!

Despite all that glory, the Tampa Bay franchise is still light years away and millions of dollars short of competing in the American League East. Not only that, but they are run by two people who have very little idea in how to run a baseball franchise with Vince Namoli being the current CEO, and Chuck LaMar being the current GM. Namoli has directed this rudderless ship to change directions approximately 23 times in the franchise’s seven year history. LaMar has made some great moves, such as picking up the telephone when the Mets flipped out last year. One Scott Kazmir doesn’t make up for the Vinnie Castilla’s of the world, as Jim Bowden will find out this year. On the plus side, Namoli’s time as the CEO might be limited as New York investor Stuart Steinberg continues to buy up shares of the franchise, and might eventually buy the team outright. On the minus side, LaMar was signed to a contract extension last year, making either his price tag or his physical presence a hindrance to the club if/when Steinberg actually gets to own his toy. Worst case scenario is LaMar hitting on all of the male members of the front office while remembering his days as a Tri-Lam.

Because Tampa Bay is a body of water, and not a city, and because Gregg Easterbrook does it, I will be referring to Tampa Bay as Tampa. Forever.

It’s a good thing Tampa is young and exciting, because otherwise, no one will come see them play baseball. Start with the outfield. Alex Sanchez hit .322 last year, while posting an on base of .335 and a slugging of .386. That is almost impossible to do. I mean, try to wrap your head around that for a second. As a comparison, if you kept everything else the same, and you gave Mark Bellhorn a .322 batting average in 2004, his line would have been .322/.431/.502. Pretty remarkable, eh? Anyway, he’s a Devil Ray on the virtue of not being able to play defense enough for the Tigers.

When Sanchez is facing the infield, and a ball is hit to his right, Carl Crawford will be there to catch it. Crawford is not only a very good defensive left fielder, but he’s a fantasy stud extraordinaire, kind of like an Uber-Juan Pierre. LaMar must have had Crawford on one of his fantasy teams, because he signed the 24-year-old speedster to a contract that might eventually be worth 6 years and $31 million. Which means it will be over just in time to have Crawford’s wheels go and he turn into a slower Willie Wilson, circa 1986. For 2005, the Devil Rays will be paying Crawford more than the Red Sox are paying David Ortiz.

Of course, Aubrey Huff actually deserves to be paid $6 million a year, by virtue of him being the one Devil Ray that can actually produce runs by using skills rather than raw tools. Even though he’s about 10 steps slower, Huff is a much better outfielder than Sanchez is, which makes me wonder why Sanchez is in the majors. I mean, is he really better than Jonny Gomes, or Joey Gathright at this point? Anyway, cool Aubrey Huff story. Last year, at the end April, I was sitting at Fenway right by the Tampa dugout. Huff was signing autographs, and I had been imbibing in some libations when I yelled “Hey Aubrey, you’re killing my fantasy team.” He looked up and said “Sorry about that man, I’m killing mine too.” I have nothing but good things to say about Aubrey Huff.

Behind the plate, the Rays have Toby Hall and Kevin Cash currently in some sort of Baseball Prospectus Overhyped Prospects of Suck timeshare. I wish I had something to say about them…Huff had the biggest hit of his life this last year when he took a gassed Bronson Arroyo for a grand slam at the Trop. Thankfully, Cash will soon be optioned to Durham to work with Tim Robbins. Charles Johnson is expected to be signed as soon has he clears waivers to back up Hall and make sure Lou Piniella isn’t the most crotchety man in the Tampa dugout.

Remember when Travis Lee was a great prospect out of San Diego State? Now he’s begging to have Doug Mientkiewicz’s career. Tampa is a great place for him because he can be the best Travis Lee he can be, without anyone bugging him about returning the World Series ball. He’s backed up by Eduardo Perez, who as far as I can tell, is imaginary.

One thing the Rays have had trouble with is getting someone to play 3rd base for them for any amount of time at all. Continuing with this theme, rather than expensively trying to get Troy Glaus, or Adrian Beltre, or cheaply trying to get Joe Randa, LaMar very cheaply decided to sign Alex “Worse than the one in Florida, if you can believe it” Gonzalez. The good part about his signing is that B.J. Upton gets more badly needed time down in AAA. The bad part is that he will be taking valuable at bats away from Michael Restovich (moving Huff to 3b) or newly acquired Nick Green (who isn’t good, but better than Gonzalez). Actually, you’ll probably get a higher offensive output if you put the dummy that Rick Vaughn used in Major Leagues up at the bat. Tampa just doesn’t want to pay for the head re-attachment.

Jorge Cantu is ugly. Julio Lugo is most famous for bouncing his girlfriend’s head off the hood of a car. Cantu is nice enough to have in a reserve role, if your team likes to do such things as win games. Lugo is probably good enough to start, being at the top level of the second tier of MLB shortstops. Basically, he’s better than Cristian Guzman, and also cheaper. Also, despite being acquitted, he’ll always be known as the dude that whipped the shit out of his girlfriend. Next year, a savvy franchise will realize that and sign him on the cheap, while he posts average production at below average prices. Bitch set him up.

Josh Phelps has led a checkered career of being a top catching prospect, then being a serviceable DH to being a BPro cover boy to being traded for Eric Crozier to being released by Cleveland and signed by the Tampa Rehabilitation Center. It’s really as simple as this, if Phelps hits, he goes to riches in Oakland, or Boston, or San Diego or some team like that. If he doesn’t, he kicks around the Milwaukee’s or Pittsburgh’s of the league until he does pull it together. That’s just history separating the John Jaha’s from the Ben Grieve’s.

Ever since Sweet Lou took control of this motley crew (THE CRÜE!!!!!!!), the Tampa bullpen has been the best in the American League East, believe it or not. The Ray’s pen saved 105 runs in 2003, which is 36 runs better than 2nd best New York. Last year, they put up 116 runs saved, which was a much small margin of dominance over 2nd place Boston (111 bully runs saved). Messers. Baez, Carter, and Colome might have some drop off, just because it’s hard to sustain this level of greatness for an extended amount of time. The pen will also be stocked fully with a bunch of slightly-above replacement level types, like Travis Miller and Casey Fossum, with some interesting live arms, like Bobby Seay and Seth McClung.

I have avoided talking about the rotation for the time being because I really don’t know what to make of it. Hideo Nomo made 18 starts last year and was the worst pitcher in baseball that made that many starts. To say he was terrible is an insult to folks like Wes Obermueller, and Gil Meche. They don’t want to be associated with the likes of Nomo v. 2004. Fortunately for the Ray’s, he’s their 5th starter. Unfortunately for the Rays, Rob Bell and Mark Hendrickson, two good fifth starters, are their 3 and 4. At the top of the rotation is the Wunderkinds Dewon Brazleton and Scott Kazmir. Kazmir, as I’m sure you know, was the booty from the Mets to have the privilege of having Victor Zambrano on their team. Rick Peterson says that he can fix Zambo’s mechanics to change him from Remy Punchline to serviceable major league starter. Peterson has a great track record, but you would have to assume the price tag for this experiment would be a little less than Scott Kazmir. Kazmir’s PECOTA (please don’t leave me, I only get to geek out so often) comp lists have names like Oliver Perez, Denny McClain, Johnny Podres, Ken Holtzman, Wade Blasingame, Rich Harden and Jake Peavy littering it. Food for thought.

As for Brazleton, he’s pitched about 185nnings in the Bigs, which is about season’s worth of starts, and his line has one ugly ERA (2003’s 6.89) and whole acceptable ERA’s in 2002 and 2004 (4.85/4.77). He’ll be 25 this year, so he’s still developing. There is a worry though…a career ERA of 5.34 only really works in Colorado or 1930 or something like that. He’s never been dominant. He walks only a handful less than he strikes out, indicating that he doesn’t really have much command over his pitches. I’m not writing off Brazelton…I know better, since he’s only 25, but it’s curious he hasn’t yet been good, merely acceptable. That isn’t what you want in your ace. Also, his clock is ticking, and he’s a good bet to be expensive in the next two years. The Rays would do well to figure out sooner than later whether or not Brazelton can turn into a Kelvim Escobar.

Right now we’re entering year three of the Great Piniella experiment. The team is improved from the days of Randy Winn and Brian McRae, but can Lou really turn around a franchise? Piniella himself is an enigma…he wins a World Series in 1990 and 116 games with the 2001 Mariners, but also vastly underachieved during the ARod accention days, when he had Edgar Martinez, Ken Griffey, and Jay Buhner at their peaks. He says the right things about winning and believing in this team, one thing Lou can’t overcome is lack of Major League talent. The Tampas are talented to be sure, but they have tools that haven’t developed into skills yet. A guy like Sanchez is terrible, but when Rocco Baldelli comes back towards the middle of the year, he will be stuck in the same lull as the Crawford’s and Cantu’s of the team…not being good enough to be dangerous, but too good to be in Durham to develop more. The Rays future depends on Piniella’s ability to develop these guys into baseball players rather than just stocking the team with athletes who can’t help Huff score some runs.

Prediction: 70-92

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Delmon Young OF
2. Scott Kazmir LHP
3. Jeff Niemann RHP
4. Wes Bankston 1B
5. Chad Orvella RHP
6. Elijah Dukes OF
7. Reid Brignac SS
8. Jason Hamel RHP
9. Joey Gathright OF
10. James Howser LHP

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By Sully,

Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts has a great piece up on Los Angeles Dodgers General Manager Paul DePodesta.

“We’re trying to predict the performance of human beings in special situations,” he said. “We’re never going to be right about that. We’re going to try to build a decision-making process where we’re right more often than we’re wrong. We know we’re not going to be right all the time.”

Go check it out. It’s a well-written and interesting take on what the Dodgers are up to these days.

Comments (1)

By Mullet,

San Francisco Giants
2004: 91-71 2nd in the NL West

Projected Lineup:
2B Ray Durham
SS Omar Vizquel
1B J.T. Snow
LF Barry Bonds
RF Moises Alou
3B Edgardo Alfonzo
CF Marquis Grissom
C Mike Matheny

Projected Rotation:
Jason Schmidt
Kirk Rueter
Brett Tomko
Jerome Williams
Noah Lowry

Projected Closer:
Armando Benitez

Outlook:
Steroids. Juice juice juice. Asterisk. BALCO. Cream and clear. Big giant head not caused by a special nerve tonic prone to cause gigantism (similar to Ken Griffey’s grotesquely swollen jaw).

Hopefully the above is the only time I’ll use any of those words when discussing the San Francisco Giants 2005 Season. After a tumultuous offseason, Felipe Alou’s bunch returns to SBC Park attempting to regain their claim to the NL West from the Los Angeles Dodgers and stave off the young and boisterous San Diego Padres. General Manager Brian Sabean knows that the window is closing on Barry Bonds’ illustrious career and knows that his best chance to win a World Series is to hitch himself to Barry and hope that they win one before he retires. Unfortunately, Sabean has seemingly developed gerontophilia—a sexual fetish where the afflicted is attracted to old people (thanks Google!)—and continues to sign players who are well past their primes in a misguided attempt to bring the Giants back to prominance. The age of the Giants was finally a factor in 2004, and looks like it could very likely be the achilles heel of the 2005 bunch as well.

The Giants offense begins and ends with one man: Barry Bonds. Probably the second greatest player in major league history, Bonds’ career is slowly approaching its finale. Of course, at age 39, he was still the best hitter in the league, so it’s hard to expect much of a decline at age 40. Bonds is dealing with some injuries that have been accumulating over the past few seasons and will miss the first quarter of the season, and maybe more. Spelling him will be Pedro Feliz, the Giants main reserve. Felix has made a little bit of a name for himself over the past couple of seasons, but he’s really just a guy with above average pop and a below average ability to get on base. When Bonds returns, Feliz will be the main bench option, which is a perfect role for a player with his talents. Joining Bonds and Feliz in the outfield are Marquis Grissom and Moises Alou (both 38). Grissom has reinvented himself as a CF with some power and not much else. Somehow the player who once stole 78 bases in a season managed to ground into 22 DPs in 2004. Alou has managed to hold off the grim reaper, even putting up one of his best seasons in 2004. Obviously this is due to his urinating on his bare hands, which is why I have done the same before typing this preview. Hopefully that comes through in my writing. Pee or not, you have to expect that there will be some age related regression in both Alou (who is also injury prone) and Grissom (who doesn’t urinate on his hands).

Sabean has had trouble filling the SS spot on recent Giants teams. This offseason he decided to go out and set the market. With all of the great shortstops available, Sabean spent a bunch of money on . . . 37 year old Omar Vizquel. See what’s I’m saying? The man has a serious old man fetish. Vizquel’s claim to fame has always been his defense, but that’s no longer the case, as he’s probably declined to about league average as a SS. He has developed a bit of plate discipline, which allows him to at least maintain some offensive value, but he’s not going to be a major cog in the offense. On the other hand, 2B Ray Durham will be a major cog, assuming he can stay healthy and on the field. Durham has always been underrated by the traditional baseball media, and at a spry 32, he’s one of the youngest players in the lineup. Edgardo Alfonzo mans the hot corner, but it is looking more and more like his 2002 was an aberration. Alfonzo bounced back a little from his disastrous 2003, but he’s still below league average at what is increasingly a very deep position across baseball. Across the diamond is J.T. Snow, who quietly had a very good 2004 season—the best of his career. He’s bound for a big decline back down to his more normal levels in 2005. The Giants let insane catcher A.J. Pierzynski walk and replaced him with the veteran presence of Mike Matheny. Pierzynski had his worst season in 2004, and it was still better than any season Matheny has ever had. Matheny, however, is older than Pierzynski, and that stirs Sabean’s loins. (It is only fair to mention that Matheny also does not have the reputation for being a grade-A asshole like Pierzynski.) Age related declines across the offense and a lack of Barry Bonds just doesn’t bode well for an offense that last year put up the second most runs in the National League.

Jason Schmidt leads the starting rotation. The Cy Young Award candidate has been the Giants workhorse, but in 2004 he took a big step back from his dominant ‘03 season. He should still be one of the top pitchers in the NL, but I don’t think it’s fair to expect him to return to an ERA+ of 183 like two seasons back. Kirk Rueter and Brett Tomko both rely on the spacious outfield of SBC to help them keep the ball in the park. Neither strikes out many batters or has stellar control and both are big question marks in the rotation. Youngsters Jerome Williams and Noah Lowry round out the rotation. Williams and Lowry have both been excellent pitchers for their age and are better bets to be successful than Rueter or Tomko. This rotation will go as far as Schmidt can carry them, and if Williams and Lowry continue to improve, the Giants’ pitching could be decent enough to keep the team in contention.

In 2004, the bullpen was a disaster for the Giants, with Dustin Hermanson as the closer. Only Jim Brower and Felix Rodriguez were really any good, and Rodriguez isn’t returning. Sabean signed Armando Benitez to close out games for the Giants, assuming they can get to him with a lead. Benitez had an absolutely stellar season in Florida and should be a huge upgrade for the Giants pen. Matt Herges, Scott Eyre, Jason Christiansen, and Tyler Walker will probably finish out the pen as the collection of mediocre arms the Giants hope can help them maintain leads. Outside of Benitez, the bullpen is the same collection of crap that blew countless leads in 2004.

The Giants are old, injury plagued, have little depth, and a GM who is determined to sign awful players early in free agency so that he doesn’t have to use a #1 draft pick. The Giants also have Barry Bonds and Jason Schmidt. Over the past few seasons, the Bonds/Schmidt tandem has been able to overcome the rest of the liabilities that Sabean has collected. It simply won’t keep working. Minus Bonds for a potentially significant portion of the season, the Giants would normally a hard time competing for a division title. But, this is the NL West, where 88-90 wins might be enough. I don’t think the Giants will even reach that rarefied air, but the return of a healthy Bonds might be enough to keep them ahead of the San Diego Padres and competitive for a Wild Card berth.

Prediction: 85-77

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Matt Cain RHP
2. Merkin Valdez RHP
3. Nate Schierholtz OF/3B
4. David Aardsma RHP
5. Eddy Martinez-Esteve OF
6. Fred Lewis OF
7. Craig Whitaker RHP
8. Pat Misch LHP
9. John Bowker OF
10. Alfredo Simon RHP