After starting the season 17-32, the Oakland Athletics are just 1 game behind the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the AL West and 2 games ahead of the New York Yankees for the AL Wild Card. They are 15-3 since the All-Star break and 42-14 since May 30th.
Offensively, the return of Bobby Crosby, the emergence of Dan Johnson, the resurgence of Nick Swisher and Eric Chavez, the addition of Jay Payton and the surprise productivity out of Mark Ellis have all contributed to make this A’s club, once among MLB’s most futile hitting ball-clubs, a top-notch offensive team. At this point, their best hitter is Johnson and credit must go to the A’s front office for handing the full-time reins over to a guy that was unproven on the Major League level but had done more than enough to prove himself in the Minor Leagues (ahem).
On the pitching side, they have survived injuries, no small feat when you consider that Ryan Glynn and Seth Etherton started six times. With Rich Harden and the old Barry Zito at the top, Danny Haren and Joe Blanton coming on and Kirk Saarloos’ deal with the devil showing no signs of expiring anytime soon, their rotation looks as solid as any other in the American League. Same goes for their bullpen. Huston Street and Justin Duscherer have been remarkable, while Kiko Calero has come back strong from injury. Former Rockies Jay Witasick and Joe Kennedy provide depth.
The A’s put together a team with promising but unproven pitchers and hitters. What figured to be excellent for the Athletics all along, however, was their defense. They are tied with the Chicago White Sox atop Major League Baseball in Baseball Prospectus’ Defensive Efficiency. If you’re going to go with a young staff, best to break them in with guys making plays and saving their asses from time to time.
This A’s team will slow down. They’re obviously not a .900 team. But they’re the best team in the American League right now and unless you think Dan Johnson is phony, Crosby injury prone or Eric Chavez a .650 OPS-guy, this offense is going to keep chugging right along. By the same token, unless you think the defense will do a 180, that Blanton and Haren don’t have room to improve (Blanton out-dueled Johan Santana last night) or that the bullpen can’t sustain its dominance, their run prevention should be excellent as well. While so-called traditionalists pull their hair out trying to figure out how a team can win a year after parting with Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, the A’s will ride their “unproven” youngsters all the way into the post-season.
So why, in my view, are the A’s better than both Chicago and Boston? Let’s take a look. Here are the their respective Pythagorean Records based on Equivalent Runs (W2-L2 records from BP’s Current Adjusted Standings Page):
Boston: 59-45
Chicago: 57-47
Oakland: 59-46
The Red Sox are a good team, one whose tremendous strengths tend to cloak its glaring flaws. I believe there is good reason to believe that what you have seen is what you will get with these Red Sox. They are about a 92-win team. They lead the American League in runs scored but have just lost Trot Nixon for an extended period of time. They are 11th in the American League in ERA and despite the potential Curt Schilling’s imminent return to the rotation brings, that this staff strikes out fewer than 6 batters per 9 innings suggests there may not be a ton of room for improvement. If Manny Delcarmen and Jon Papelbon play more prominent roles and Roberto Petagine gets a look in the Bigs, things may change. As such, Boston’s a very good team, but one that is not all that likely to drastically improve.
Chicago is fake. Their Pythag suggests it, recent performances from Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle suggest it and predictable, forthcoming regression from aging hurlers El Duque and Jose Contreras suggests it. They have not played as well as their record suggests and further, they seem to be a team in decline. In July, the Pale Hose found themselves statistically in the middle of the AL pack in both hitting and pitching, where I would submit they belong.
Oakland has managed its Pythagorean record despite being one of the very worst teams in all of baseball for April and May. So why place so much stock in their recent streak as opposed to their start to the season? Isn’t a cold streak a cold streak and a hot streak a hot streak – both to be treated with equal skepticism? Well something very real changed for the A’s right around the end of May. Bobby Crosby played in his first game since his Opening Day injury on May 30th. Dan Johnson was called up and saw his first Big League action on May 27th. Eric Chavez, the 27 year-old who posted a .898 2004 OPS, had just a .597 OPS as of May 31st. He is now at .791. Rich Harden, arguably the AL’s best starting pitcher, did not make a start between May 13th and June 21st. He is now back and in fine form. Kiko Calero, a career 3-ERA and 10-K/9 guy, missed a month and has looked good of late. Put simply, the A’s are an altogether different team than the one that was taking the field during the first two months. The team that is 42-14 since May 30th is a lot more indicative of the caliber of their club than the team that was 17-32 on May 29th.
In short, while Boston, Chicago and Oakland all have comparable Pythagorean records and appear to be indistinguishable in terms of quality, they are three teams in drastically different situations. Boston ought to continue to play right about to their 92-win pace, Chicago should continue to regress and Oakland should continue to outpace their current record. That’s why I believe Oakland is the best team in the American League.
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