NL Wild Card and Mazz Is Doing the Inanity Thing Again
The three division races in the Senior Circuit are all but decided but boy does the National League have a doozy going on for the Wild Card. Three teams remain in contention, and all three have a legitimate crack at winning this thing. Standings and each team’s remaining schedules…
FLA: 78-67 –
PHI: 77-68 1GB
HOU: 76-68 1.5GB
FLA:
2 @ HOU
3 vs. PHI
3 @ NYM
3 @ ATL
3 vs. WAS
3 vs. ATL
PHI
2 vs. ATL
3 @ FLA
3 @ ATL
3 @ CIN
3 vs. NYM
3 @ WAS
HOU
2 vs. FLA
3 vs. MIL
4 @ PIT
3 @ CHC
2 @ STL
4 vs. CHC
Glancing at the schedules, I would say Florida has the easiest route. They’re up a game already and play their last nine against Atlanta (6), who will be on cruise control riding out the season, and Washington (3), just not a good ball-club at this point. Florida’s next eight will determine their season. If they stay within a game or so after this stretch against their two direct competitors and the New York Mets, they ought to be able to post a good enough record over the last 9 games to take the Wild Card. Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds report disagrees, though I suspect some necessary, subjective considerations do not factor into the analysis.
Florida: 32.79778%
Philadelphia: 32.12422%
Houston: 35.67914%
This looks to me as though their projections are not taking into account that Atlanta won’t have very much to play for when Florida plays them in six of their final nine contests. In BP’s system, Atlanta would register as a formidable foe, when in actuality, they will probably be resting their best players.
Either way, it will be an exciting finish and something all baseball fans should keep an eye on.
——————————————————————————————-
Did you happen to catch Tony Massarotti perpetuating the myth that 2003’s strategy and not the pitchers themselves doomed the Red Sox’s bullpen? Money quote…
But the committee approach? No, no, no, no. It doesn’t work. We all saw that during the early stages of the 2003 season, when the bullpen failed so miserably that the Sox went out and acquired Kim from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shea Hillenbrand. Kim stablized the bullpen – at least during the majority of the regular season – the same way Curt Schilling did this year, which is another frightening similarity between this year and that one.
Right, it was the “approach” and not Jason Shiell, Chad Fox or Rudy Seanez that were causing problems. And look, I realize that relievers become comfortable in certain roles and there is something to that. But the reality is that the Red Sox don’t employ anyone that has recently closed, or closed in the modern sense of the word, anyway. Mike Myers’ quote from Mullet’s recap today is relevant because of the particulars of the situation and not because the Closer™ came in during the 7th inning. There were three lefties in a row coming up, a wheelhouse opportunity for Myers to come in and be effective. He has a point, and not the one the local media spinsters will probably try and run with. The Red Sox don’t need a Closer™. They need a multitude of effective relievers and between Jon Papelbon, Chad Harville, Mike Timlin, the OOGIES Mike and Chad and maybe – maybe – Keith Foulke, they may have just that. And that’s all you can ask for.
——————————————————————————————
Well just when you think Mazz couldn’t get any more obtuse, he unfurls this gem in today’s Boston Herald. Money quote in this piece…
David Ortiz has been the best clutch hitter on one of the best teams in baseball this season, but, incredibly, there are those who judge him on his defense. Ortiz does not play any. He is a designated hitter, which is the kiss of death when it comes to winning a Most Valuable Player award.
Maybe it is time to call this what it is:
Discrimination.
This is beyond stupid, to the point my head hurts and I have neither the time nor the inclination to deal with this other than to say…
A-Rod, good 3rd Baseman Playing Home Games in a Tough Hitters Park: .321/.421/.600
David Ortiz, Designated Hitter Playing Home Games in a Bandbox: .297/.397/.600
It’s not discrimination, Mazz. It’s good sense.
Isn’t that what the ‘Hank Aaron’ award is supposed to be, the best DH in the AL? But I guess that’s decided by fan vote. When are these idiotic sportswriters gonna
get firedretire?The discussion is in play – sure. But discrimination? Is that really the only way to account for the legitimacy
of a candidate other than Ortiz? And what need is there to quantify anything when, before you consider that A-Rod
plays good defense, runs well and plays in a pitcher’s park, he STILL has superior numbers!
Further, I love how you poo-poo BA/OBP/SLG as though it’s some quirky novelty and no real measure of a baseball player. Sorry bro, but those are their respective records. I love Ortiz, and think he has been one of the very best players in baseball. But you know what, when you have inferior numbers than a guy that plays defense (much less good defense!) and can run, you, by definition, are not as valuable as the alternative.
Wow, watch the strawmen. I said “good defense” and “runs well”, not “wins gold gloves” and “steals bases”…you do realize that running well helps a baseball team outside of the realm of stolen bases, right? I have actually said that Edgar Martinez deserved the 1995 MVP ahead of Mo and Albert Belle so I have no such inherent conviction that DH’s do not deserve an MVP award. As for your clutch argument, well, it helps Ortiz’s candidacy if “clutch” is your thing but it only serves to narrow the gap while not even coming close to closing it.
There’s still so much for him to overcome. To review, he has worse numbers straight up. He also is a DH, while the other guy is a good 3B. Ortiz also hits in a great hitters park, while the other guy hits in a pitcher’s park. All of that makes it a blowout in my opinion. If you want to give Ortiz credit because he happened to get some of his hits in timely situations, I’m open-minded and will go along with it. But as I said, it only serves to narrow the gap. BP has Ortiz at 8.6 WARP3 to AROD’s 10.7. AROD has Ortiz by 14 runs of VORP. Both numbers are park-adjusted and account for offensive positional value. Factor in actual defense and AROD stretches his advantage. If you think “clutch” makes up for that, I’ll grant you it probably has some value but far less that I suspect you think.
Thanks for posting, by the way. You’ve been thoughtful and I don’t want to ever rail against the mainstream just for the sake of it. But Maz really does rub me the wrong way and the assertion that a vote against Ortiz was “discrimination” I felt was ridiculous.
That’s an interesting point, Sam, but remember why Park Effects are so important. It is because the value of one run may vary greatly from park to park. A run created at Yankee Stadium is worth more than a run created at Fenway Park because fewer total runs are scored in the former.