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By Sully, 9/20/2005 7:24 am

Mullet wrote one helluva game recap that we are hoping to recover. Not sure what happened.

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By Sully,

Papi being Papi: 6 total bases and 4 RBI in an enormous game in the heart of a pennant race.

Trot being Trot: A de facto part-time player. He sat out his 38th game of the season.

Manny being Manny: 33 and regressing

Boomer being Boomer: Old

Edgar being Edgar: A liability in the field without the stick to compensate.

Millar being Millar: A punchline. An abomination that even the greenest amateur can recognize is not a Major League Baseball player.

Hansen being Hansen: Filthy.

Papelbon being Papelbon: Inexperienced

Damon being Damon: Struggling. Just struggling.

Bradford being Bradford: Meat

Cora being Cora: To my surprise, an asset.

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By Mullet, 9/19/2005 6:30 pm

While not quite as bright as Hansen coming up, Hanley Ramirez has also been activated for today’s game.

Hopefully we drop a 10 spot in the first and can see Hanley get some action.

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By Sully,

As Borat would say, “Something is arriving…”

Craig Hansen has been called up and will be joining the team in Tampa tonight. Woo-hoo.

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By Sully,

And it wasn’t even that close. Matt Clement was a trainwreck, Kirk Saarloos was pretty good and Billy Beane’s Christ-child “Chavy” showed glimpses of his prior form. In the “even more bad news” depatment, Kevin Youkilis was hurt and a broken finger may prevent him from returning this season. The Red Sox are now averaging fewer than 4 runs per game in September, something that was not lost on Dan Shaughnessy, who got to dust off the “Kill the Olde Towne Team” routine for the first time in some time. Good for Dan.

There wasn’t a silver lining to be had yesterday unless you were doing some scoreboard watching. The Yankees fell to the Toronto Blue Jays, as Derek Jeter once again made the final out of the game with the tying run standing on 2nd base. For what it’s worth, here are some Jeter splits in 2005.

RISP: .250/.383/.355
RISP, 2 Outs: .238/.385/.365
Close and Late: .268/.355/.378

Still up 1.5 games on the Yanks, Boston now heads to Tampa while the Yanks host Baltimore. As David Pinto would say, Enjoy!

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By Mullet, 9/18/2005 9:28 am

With the Yankees closing out their 1-0 victory over the Blue Jays, the Red Sox stood just a single game above the dreaded Bombers. A loss to the Athletics would leave the Red Sox just a half-game up in the AL East, and with the hard charging Indians playing the lowly Royals, a loss would also mean losing ground in the Wild Card hunt.

So, you’d expect this to be a game where the Red Sox bats wake up, pounding Oakland into submission and maintaining the 1.5 game lead in the East. Unfortunately for the Sox, Danny Haren pitched a gem.

Fortunately for the Sox, so did Bronson Arroyo.

More fortunately, the Red Sox have Manny Ramirez, the forgotten man in the David Ortiz-for-MVP hype.

Bronson Arroyo out-dueled Danny Haren, allowing the As just 3 hits and a single run over 7 innings, while Jon Papelbon and Mike Timlin brought back echoes of last October’s Timlin/Keith Foulke combo, giving up just a single hit over the final 2 innings. Manny Ramirez contributed the offense, driving in both runs, as the Sox won a nailbiter 2-1.

Arroyo cruised through the first 7, only getting into trouble in the 5th inning when he gave up his 1 run, working out of a couple of jams. The As threatened again in the 8th due to Edgar Renteria’s inexplicable 28th error of the season. Jason Kendall laced a double to right-center. Trot Nixon tracked it down, threw a pretty solid strike to second base, where Renteria simply didn’t catch it. Even more inexplicably, veteran defensive presence John Olerud wasn’t backing up the play, allowing the ball to bounce harmlessly to the middle of the infield while Kendall hustled to third. Thankfully, the unflappable Papelbon got Kotsay to fly out to end the inning. Mike Timlin pitched a flawless 9th, including a game-ending strikeout on Jay Payton, which was cathartic for some portion of Red Sox nation.

The wonderful performance by the pitching staff was almost ruined by the continued September nap the Red Sox offense is taking. With Danny Haren throwing just filthy stuff, the Red Sox sent up their batters most likely to look ridiculous at the plate. Jason Varitek, Kevin Millar, and Alex Cora were a combined 0-9 with 5 strikeouts.

But, then there’s Manny. With Edgar Renteria on 3rd (single) and David Ortiz on 1st (single), Manny Ramirez ripped a single to CF scoring Renteria and giving the Sox a 1-0 lead. A few innings later, after the Athletics had tied the game, Ramirez came up in the 6th inning with 1 out. It took all of one pitch for Manny to untie the game, depositing the ball somewhere across Lansdowne St. And that was the game.

For the first time all season, it finally seems like the Red Sox are beginning to realize that they just can’t “Cowboy Up™” — they need to actually execute and win ball games. From Chris Snow’s Globe recap, David Ortiz (who once again received the “M-V-P” chant last night) seems to understand the situation:

”If we don’t come in first place [in the East] . . .,” Ortiz said. He tailed off, making a throat-slash gesture, the implication being that Boston’s season would be dead.

Ortiz may very well be correct. Cleveland has another game against the Royals today, facing off against Jose Lima, which is akin to facing off against a Jugs pitching machine. The Yankees have another game against Toronto, with Ted Lilly throwing for the Jays. Lilly has been destroyed by the Yankees this year (to the tune of a .412 BA and 12 ER in 8 IP).

You have to expect that both the Yankees and Indians will continue their hot streaks, at least for today. So it’s time for the bats to come alive against Kirk Saarloos and his extra vowels, and it’s time for Matt Clement to prove that he deserves a spot in the post-season rotation. If neither of those things happen, there might not be a post-season.

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By Sully, 9/16/2005 11:08 pm

At this point in the year, you take ‘em anyway you can get ‘em.

The Red Sox beat the A’s in 10 innings, 3-2, on a walk off hit-by-pitch off the left elbow of Manny Ramirez. Tony Graffanino and David Ortiz were offensive stars for the Sox and once again, Tim Wakefield turned in a huge performance as he pitched effectively for another nine innings.

None of the macro troubles for the Sox showed signs of relief, however. They plated just 3 runs, making it 66 for the month in 16 games. That’s terrible.

This game was not exactly a managerial clinic. Between ordering Bill Mueller to bunt in the 7th and pulling Tim Wakefield for the 10th (he had thrown just 104 pitches), if Tito has a good feel for strategy and his own personnel, he has an awfully bizarre way of showing it. Perhaps his worst crime of the night was leaving Doug Mirabelli in to face the marvelous Justin Duscherer in the 9th, after deciding to take Wakefield out. Remember people, it’s expanded roster season. Of course because they apparently went on a dual baby-killing spree, Tito hates Roberto Petagine and Kelly Shoppach, and any move that could possibly trigger having to play either one of the two is to be avoided at all costs.

Ken Macha really flubbed the end of the game up. How Juan Cruz starts the 10th inning I’ll never know. How Keiichi Yabu relieves Juan Cruz to face Manny Ramirez, after Macha determined that Cruz was good enough to start the 10th confounds even more. Further, the A’s seemed terribly disorganized trying to figure out optimal defensive alignment in the 10th. Here’s a hint; with less than two outs and the game-winner on third, your rightfielder should be playing less than 360 feet from home plate.

The Sox stayed 1.5 games up on the Yanks, who overcame the early ejection of Randy Johnson and staved off Toronto, 11-10. 7pm tomorrow night, Danny Haren and Branden Arroyo.

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By Sully,

The Red Sox are averaging 4.2 runs per contest in September, a figure that would slot them behind the Minnesota Twins’ offense if it was their season-long total. Getting either non-existant or detrimental performances from Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke all season and virtually nothing out of Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn and, for much of the season, Edgar Renteria, how the Red Sox have been able to win has been a wonder. What it really is, is a tribute to four of its offensive stars that have carried the team all year long. Here is where the Red Sox rank in the American League in OPS, position by position.

C: 1st
1B: 5th
2B: 10th
3B: 3rd
SS: 7th
LF: 1st
CF: 1st
RF: 9th
DH: 1st

David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez have all been necessary components for the Red Sox to win consistently. Skids from any one or two of them slowed the offense down all year while the mere thought of prolonged suckitude from three of them simultaneously was too much to even bear. Well we are witnessing what happens to this offense without 3 of the 4. It grinds to an absolute, screeching, Minnesota Twins-esque halt.

September Stats:

David Ortiz: .319/.452/.702

Manny Ramirez: .245/.298/.377
Jason Varitek: .136/.240/.159
Johnny Damon: .297/.326/.351

The offense is plodding right now, but hopefully not for long. Manny, Damon and Varitek rarely are held down for long, much less simultaneously. I’d expect them to break out soon. In related news, Joe Kennedy takes the hill tonight…

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By Mullet,

Just a handful of pitches into the game, the Oakland As had scored 2 runs and Curt Schilling was already muttering and cursing under his breath. Schilling’s performance left a lot to be desired, giving up 11 hits and 4 ER over 6.2 innings, taking the loss in the Red Sox 6-2 loss to Oakland. Chris Snow’s Globe recap captures a telling, if somewhat befuddling, quote from Schilling:

I had a feeling coming into this game [that] if they watched my last start they would see how many first-pitch fastballs I was throwing and how many balls I left over the middle of the plate. They were aggressive.

It’s a telling quote in that I think it is indicitive off how difficult it is for Schilling to be effective right now. He has to get ahead in the count to be successful, because his control/location is still suspect. To get ahead, he takes advantage of teams’ apathy on the first pitch, grooving a fastball. Once a team susses that fact out, you get an outcome like last night: a lot of first pitch swings and hits, and Schilling struggling to get ahead in the count (leading to a 3 BB/3 K performance).

It’s a befuddling quote because the Red Sox are paying both Curt Schilling and Jason Varitek a lot of money because they are apparently the most dilligent and prepared of all players at their respective positions. Surely, if Schilling had figured this out before the game, they’d be able to make adjustments and take advantage of the Athletics game plan? It’s a bit of game theory–we know you’re going to be aggressive, so we’re going to mix in some more off-speed pitches, so you’re going to sit back, etc.

Instead, as often seems to be the case, the Sox just barrel ahead and hope that the offense can compensate for inefficiencies elsewhere. Unfortunately for the Sox, Joe Blanton didn’t allow that to happen.

Blanton held the Sox to 2 runs on 6 hits in the first 6 innings, and the solid Oakland bullpen gave up just a single hit the rest of the game. Johnny Damon had a double in his return to the lineup, but is obviously not nearly 100%. Damon’s arm, already one of the worst in baseball, is now the single worst throwing arm in baseball. It’s unfortunate, since Damon has been such a warrior this season (and I’m not one for the platitudes), but the consistent playing through injury has obviously taken its toll. Manny Ramirez and Bill Mueller each had a couple of hits, along side David Ortiz and Trot Nixon who each had 1. That was the Sox offense for the evening.

The pitching-heavy Oakland team looked like the Red Sox at the plate. The top five hitters in their order went a combined 9 for 22 (.409) with 5 RBI and 3 BB (.480 OBP). Every hitter for the Athletics reached base at least once.

So, with the Yankees coming from behind to defeat the Devil Rays, the Red Sox stand just 1.5 games ahead in the AL East, and just a game ahead of Cleveland in the Wild Card. The Red Sox are struggling, and don’t have an off-day until next Thursday.

Thankfully, things could change tonight. Oakland sends Joe Kennedy to the mound against Tim Wakefield. Joe Kennedy isn’t very good. He doesn’t pitch well against the Sox, and he hasn’t pitched well–at all–in 2005. Tonight’s a funk breaker night.

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By Mullet, 9/15/2005 6:01 pm

The AL Central was locked up the Chicago White Sox just a month ago. Unfortunately for fans in Chicago, the Cleveland Indians have decided to just ignore the lock and kick the damn door down.

Current Standings
Chicago White Sox: 88-57
Cleveland Indians: 84-62, 4.5 GB

The White Sox have been in a complete freefall, losing 7 in a row at one point, and 6 of 7 currently. They sandwiched a 7 game winning streak in between, which is the only reason they’re still sitting in a slightly comfortable position. The Indians have done the exact opposite, losing just 7 games in August and 3 games thus far in September. It’s been an amazing run that has put the Indians in the Wild Card lead and given them a chance to win the division title outright.

Cleveland’s remaining schedule:
3 vs Kansas City
3 @ Chicago
4 @ Kansas City
3 vs Tampa Bay
3 vs Chicago

Kansas City has played Cleveland tough this season, but were swept by the Indians in August, and the Indians have favorable pitching matchups in all 3 games, so let’s assume 2 wins for the Indians in the home series and 3 in the away series. The White Sox have owned the Indians thus far, but with the teams going in drastically different directions, and a pennant on the line, I think it is reasonable that Cleveland will take 1 game in Chicago and 2 at home. That leaves 3 games versus Tampa Bay. The Devil Rays swept Cleveland in Cleveland in August, but lost 3 of 4 to the Indians in Florida. Again, let’s go with the hot team and give the Indians 2 wins.

That would leave the Indians with 10 wins, and a 94-68 record.

Chicago’s remaining schedule:
3 @ Minnesota
3 vs Cleveland
4 vs Minnesota
4 @ Detroit
3 @ Cleveland

We’ve already guessed that the Sox will take 2 from Cleveland at home and 1 on the road. That gives the White Sox 91 wins, meaning they would need just 4 wins in their remaining games to win the division. The White Sox are fading quickly, but they do end up with a couple of possibly favorable matchups. Let’s be conservative, however, and give the Sox just 1 win in Minnesota and a split series at home for a total of 3 wins (which would leave the White Sox splitting the season series with the Twins). That leaves 4 games @ Detroit to get a single win. The White Sox just swept a 4-game series agains the Tigers at home, and have a 12-3 season series advantage. 2 wins is more than likely, with 3 possible, but let’s be conservative with the fading White Sox.

8 wins, a final record of 96-66, and the White Sox win the division by 2 games.

Projected Standings
Chicago White Sox 96-66
Cleveland Indians 94-68

As you can see, much like the AL West, this division might very well come down to the 7 games between the two teams. For the first time in a good long while, a late season series is going to have a big impact on the AL Central playoff race.

Now, if we throw the teams into our very simple mathematical estimator, let’s see how the standings come out:

Projected Standings
Chicago White Sox 98-64
Cleveland Indians 96-66

Statistically speaking, both teams play pretty easy schedules, minus the 7 games they face each other. Thus, my spreadsheet is a little more optimistic than my gut is. Still, the White Sox come out on top, and again, it’s close enough that the 7 games between the Indians and White Sox will likely decide the division.

Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds report differs slightly, with the White Sox finishing 3 games ahead of the Indians with 97 wins.

Many people think the Indians are powered by a powerful offense and the White Sox sneak by with pitching and defense. These people are then surprised to learn that the Indians have scored only 19 more runs than the small ball White Sox … and have given up 4 less runs. By straight Pythagorean expected record, the Indians are the best team in the AL. BP’s Adjusted Standings like the Indians even more!

With all of the trends going the Indians way, things are looking up for Cleveland to get into the playoffs–either as the Wild Card, or possibly as the AL Central champion.

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By Sully,

David Wells got the win last night, as he battled and labored and managed to get through 7 innings having yielded just 3 runs. That total was good enough for the Sox, who manufactured a run in the firts and got two two-run home runs, one each from Tony Graffanino and David Ortiz respectively. The Boston bullpen chipped in two perfect innings of relief, as Chad the ROOGY and Mike Timlin each looked very good. There were two big stories from the game.

First, was another clutch, late, go-ahead home run off of the bat of David Ortiz. It’s all been said at this point so I don’t think I have anything to add to the discussion but let me just say that what he has been able to do, time and time again in clutch situations, is nothing short of scrumptulescent.

The other big story came on Graf’s home run. I had never seen a play like this and I learned a new rule. The home run came with two outs and was very low, and very much in doubt off the crack of the bat. Accordingly and because he always hustles, Gabe Kapler was on his horse from first base. As he rounded second, he seemed to notice the ball clear the fence and altered his stride ever so slightly. It was enough to rupture his achilles tendon, something I have been told is one of the very most painful sports injuries an athlete can endure. He lay on the turf, looking to the dugout seemingly trying to express that there was no freaking way he was going to be able to make it home. So the new rule I learned is this…

5.10
The ball becomes dead when an umpire calls “Time.” The umpire in chief shall call “Time”_ (a) When in his judgment weather, darkness or similar conditions make immediate further play impossible; (b) When light failure makes it difficult or impossible for the umpires to follow the play; NOTE: A league may adopt its own regulations governing games interrupted by light failure. (c) When an accident incapacitates a player or an umpire; (1) If an accident to a runner is such as to prevent him from proceeding to a base to which he is entitled, as on a home run hit out of the playing field, or an award of one or more bases, a substitute runner shall be permitted to complete the play. (d) When a manager requests “Time” for a substitution, or for a conference with one of his players. (e) When the umpire wishes to examine the ball, to consult with either manager, or for any similar cause. (f) When a fielder, after catching a fly ball, falls into a bench or stand, or falls across ropes into a crowd when spectators are on the field. As pertains to runners, the provisions of 7.04 (c) shall prevail. If a fielder after making a catch steps into a bench, but does not fall, the ball is in play and runners may advance at their own peril. (g) When an umpire orders a player or any other person removed from the playing field. (h) Except in the cases stated in paragraphs (b) and (c) (1) of this rule, no umpire shall call “Time” while a play is in progress.

So Alejandro Machado jogged out to where Kapler stopped and sort of took a wide left towards third and then home, and Tony Graffanino followed behind.

Kapler seems like a really likeable guy and it is too bad that he was hurt so seriously. With respect to the impact on the field though, I think this presents an interesting opportunity for Sox fans to familiarize themselves with the term, Replacement Level. Gabe Kapler has hit .247/.282/.351 for the Sox so far, and judging from the tone of voices from local sportscasters lamenting Kapler’s loss, you would think the Sox will be without Dominic Dimaggio himself. Keith Woolner writes in the above-linked piece…

Baseball is a zero sum game. One team always wins at the expense of another. It is not possible for one team to win without another losing. In order to win, a team must be able to produce more runs (or prevent runs from scoring) than the opposition. It’s success in producing wins is directly tied to its ability to produce more runs than its opponent. Any competitive advantage a team has must, in some way, translate to better on-field performance to be valuable.

A commodity which is easily available to all teams at no or low cost confers no competitive advantage, and therefore is of minimal value. Thus, baseball value comes from scarcity.

The talent distribution in baseball can be summed up as follows: there are very few “superstar” level players, a somewhat larger number of “average” producers, and a practically unlimited number of “scrubs”. This is usually represented as the tail end of a bell curve or normal distribution, with the vast majority of the overall population already weeded out through other factors prior to reaching professional ball.

As the above relates to the current topic, put simply, what Kapler provides just is not scarce. Alejandro Machado or George Lombard or some other guy locals will be panicking over will fill in Kapler’s role and you know what? The Sox won’t skip a beat. What Kapler provides a baseball team can, and will be easily replaced, even if it requires handing the job to a guy that hasn’t yet had the opportunity to suck the way Kapler has. I urge the Sox not to worry too much about this one. There are a lot of players that can suck at Major league Baseball the way Kapler has over the last few months.

The Sox got a win last night they very much needed, and now come home to face the formidable Athletics of Oakland, who are scratching and clawing and fighting for their postseason lives. While the Sox try their hand with the A’s, the Yanks, just 2.5 games back, finish up with Tampa tonight before heading to Toronto tomorrow for a three-game weekend set.

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By Sully, 9/14/2005 3:53 pm

The three division races in the Senior Circuit are all but decided but boy does the National League have a doozy going on for the Wild Card. Three teams remain in contention, and all three have a legitimate crack at winning this thing. Standings and each team’s remaining schedules…

FLA: 78-67 –
PHI: 77-68 1GB
HOU: 76-68 1.5GB

FLA:
2 @ HOU
3 vs. PHI
3 @ NYM
3 @ ATL
3 vs. WAS
3 vs. ATL

PHI
2 vs. ATL
3 @ FLA
3 @ ATL
3 @ CIN
3 vs. NYM
3 @ WAS

HOU
2 vs. FLA
3 vs. MIL
4 @ PIT
3 @ CHC
2 @ STL
4 vs. CHC

Glancing at the schedules, I would say Florida has the easiest route. They’re up a game already and play their last nine against Atlanta (6), who will be on cruise control riding out the season, and Washington (3), just not a good ball-club at this point. Florida’s next eight will determine their season. If they stay within a game or so after this stretch against their two direct competitors and the New York Mets, they ought to be able to post a good enough record over the last 9 games to take the Wild Card. Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds report disagrees, though I suspect some necessary, subjective considerations do not factor into the analysis.

Florida: 32.79778%
Philadelphia: 32.12422%
Houston: 35.67914%

This looks to me as though their projections are not taking into account that Atlanta won’t have very much to play for when Florida plays them in six of their final nine contests. In BP’s system, Atlanta would register as a formidable foe, when in actuality, they will probably be resting their best players.

Either way, it will be an exciting finish and something all baseball fans should keep an eye on.

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Did you happen to catch Tony Massarotti perpetuating the myth that 2003’s strategy and not the pitchers themselves doomed the Red Sox’s bullpen? Money quote…

But the committee approach? No, no, no, no. It doesn’t work. We all saw that during the early stages of the 2003 season, when the bullpen failed so miserably that the Sox went out and acquired Kim from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shea Hillenbrand. Kim stablized the bullpen – at least during the majority of the regular season – the same way Curt Schilling did this year, which is another frightening similarity between this year and that one.

Right, it was the “approach” and not Jason Shiell, Chad Fox or Rudy Seanez that were causing problems. And look, I realize that relievers become comfortable in certain roles and there is something to that. But the reality is that the Red Sox don’t employ anyone that has recently closed, or closed in the modern sense of the word, anyway. Mike Myers’ quote from Mullet’s recap today is relevant because of the particulars of the situation and not because the Closer™ came in during the 7th inning. There were three lefties in a row coming up, a wheelhouse opportunity for Myers to come in and be effective. He has a point, and not the one the local media spinsters will probably try and run with. The Red Sox don’t need a Closer™. They need a multitude of effective relievers and between Jon Papelbon, Chad Harville, Mike Timlin, the OOGIES Mike and Chad and maybe – maybe – Keith Foulke, they may have just that. And that’s all you can ask for.

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Well just when you think Mazz couldn’t get any more obtuse, he unfurls this gem in today’s Boston Herald. Money quote in this piece…

David Ortiz has been the best clutch hitter on one of the best teams in baseball this season, but, incredibly, there are those who judge him on his defense. Ortiz does not play any. He is a designated hitter, which is the kiss of death when it comes to winning a Most Valuable Player award.

Maybe it is time to call this what it is:

Discrimination.

This is beyond stupid, to the point my head hurts and I have neither the time nor the inclination to deal with this other than to say…

A-Rod, good 3rd Baseman Playing Home Games in a Tough Hitters Park: .321/.421/.600
David Ortiz, Designated Hitter Playing Home Games in a Bandbox: .297/.397/.600

It’s not discrimination, Mazz. It’s good sense.

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By Mullet,

An incredibly bad 2nd inning doomed the Red Sox last night, as the Blue Jays teed off on Matt Clement for 5 runs on their way to a 9-3 victory over the Sox. Clement was flat out bad in the 2nd, leaving pitches up in the zone, falling behind hitters consistently, and the Blue Jays capitalized, including Gabe Gross’ first home run in almost a year. Clement, to his credit, sucked it up and gave the Sox a full 6 innings, allowing 6 runs on 6 hits. He walked 2 and struck out 4, as his K rate continues to decline in the second half.

Attempting to pick up the slack for Clement was Keith Foulke, who came on in the 7th to allow 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks and a HBP. Chad Harville rounded out the night giving up 1 run on 1 hit and 1 walk. The pitching staff didn’t get it done, but they at least left some nifty looking pitching lines.

The defense didn’t get it done either. Foulke’s inning was extended by an Edgar Renteria error, a sight that has been all too familiar this season. The defensive deficiencies of the Red Sox outfield without Damon and Nixon likely contributed to Clement’s poor 2nd. The $150 million dollar roster doesn’t seem to have the ability to withstand an injury and a left-handed pitcher, leaving you with corner outfielders of Manny Ramirez and Kevin Millar, with Gabe Kapler taking “Family Circus”-esque routes to the ball in center.

Once again, David Ortiz led the offense, hitting his 41st homer and having the only multi-hit game of the night. But the Sox couldn’t get to the Toronto bullpen, being held scoreless with just 3 hits over the last 3.2 innings.

Just a frustrating night all around, compounding the exposed nerves left after Francona’s bullpen usage the night before. Gordon Edes’ article in the Globe has comments from a couple of Sox pitchers expressing concern about bullpen usage and Francona bringing Timlin into the game in the 7th.

”There was a lot of scratching of heads down there,” Myers said . . . ”No one had any pre-warning of what was going on. They’ve got three lefties in a row coming up and I don’t get up. You put [Keith] Foulke in there, then you bring in Timlin, who hasn’t seen the seventh inning in a long time without letting him know early on that you’re going to do this?”

Not the type of comments you hope to see from your team down the stretch, especially with the Yankees closing to within 2.5 games of the Sox after a 17-3 trouncing of their nemesis, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. With Cleveland also winning, the Indians are the Wild Card leaders, but more disturbing, only a 1.5 back of the Sox.

The Red Sox have no room for error, no room for bickering about how they get used out of the bullpen, and no room for playing favorites. Terry Francona needs to put his best 9 players out there every night–something that hasn’t happened very often this season.

The Sox close out the series with Toronto tonight, with David Wells facing off against Kevin Towers. Towers has pitched really well since the All-Star Break, so this will be yet another test for the faltering Sox offense. The Yankees face off against Mark Hendrickson in Tampa. If the Sox don’t win tonight, the Yankees will likely be 1.5 GB tomorrow morning.

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By Mullet, 9/13/2005 3:06 pm

We stand about 20 games from the end of the season. Two of the three American League divisions are still in doubt. The American League Wild Card looks like it could turn into a complete mess. Let’s take a step back and take a look at each of these races.

We’ll start out in California, with the AL West.

Current Standings
Los Angeles: 81-62
Oakland: 80-63, 1 GB

The As stand a game back of the Angels. Oakland has gone 5-6 thus far in September, while Los Anaheim has been on a bit better streak, rolling off a 7-4 record this month. The Angels have beaten the team they should (Seattle), swept one division leader (Chicago), and lost a couple to the other division leader (the Sox). Oakland has not performed as well, dropping series to the Yankees and Mariners.

Oakland’s recent drop off can be directly attributed to the loss of Bobby Crosby. Crosby is a good hitting and fielding SS and a major cog in the Athetics’ offense. Crosby is expected back next week, which bodes well for Oakland.

Oakland’s upcoming schedule: 2 games at Cleveland, 4 at Boston, 3 vs. Minnesota, 3 vs. Texas, 4 vs. Los Angeles, and finally 3 at Seattle.

The As are 3-4 versus Cleveland thus far this season, and will likely split those games. Oakland is likely to lose 3 of 4 at Fenway where they are 0-3 this season. Against Minnesota, with Bobby Crosby possibly back, 2 wins is reasonable (especially since they’re likely to miss Johan Santana). Oakland should again take 2 out of 3 versus Texas, whom they are 10-6 against this season (with the bulk of those losses happening in May. A split with the Angels and 2 out of 3 from Seattle would round out the Athletics regular season.

Given those series, the Athletics would pick up 10 more wins this season, finishing at 90-72.

Los Angeles’ upcoming schedule: 2 at Seattle, 4 vs. Detroit, 3 vs. Texas, 3 vs. Tampa Bay, 4 at Oakland, 3 at Texas.

The Angels are 9-7 against the Mariners this season, including 5 out of the last 6. The Angels miss King Felix and very likely will take both games from Seattle. A split versus Detroit and 2 out of 3 against the Rangers would put the Angels at 6 wins. The next two series become extremely interesting. Tampa Bay is the hottest team in baseball and swept the Angels just last month. Let’s assume the Rays take 2 from the Halos, and then the Angels/Athletics split the big series. That puts the Angels at 9 wins and 90 wins overall, with 3 games to go against Texas on the road. They’ll win one of those games and finish with 91 wins.

Projected Standings:
Los Angeles – 91-71
Oakland – 90-72

Taking a slightly more mathematical approach, we can compare the Angels and Athletics respective winning percentages (home/away) against the winning percentages (home/away) of their opponents to come up with some projected win totals for the rest of the season. By this simple measure, we end up with standings that look like this:

Projected Standings:
Los Angeles – 93-69
Oakland – 91-71

However, the Angels record includes a sweep of a Tampa Bay team that has been very hot in the second half. If we use the D-Rays second half numbers, our standings change by one game:

Projected Standings:
Los Angeles – 92-70
Oakland – 91-71

These numbers all look awfully close to the Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds report, which is a much more advanced way of coming up with an end of season projection. Regardless of which method we use–scouting or stats–the AL West looks like it will be a very tight race. How quickly Bobby Crosby can come back from injury, how much Seattle or Texas mail it in with young players, or the Oakland/LA series in late September might each contribute enough to swing the division one way or the other. If the Athletics can take one more game from the Angels, we might see a 1-game playoff that would have divisional and wild card implications.

Comments (3)

By Sully, 9/12/2005 10:40 pm

If there was any doubt before as to whether or not David Ortiz is most qualified to replace Sandra Day O’Connor on the United States Supreme Court, there can be no more. The man can do no wrong, and has one hell of a judicial temperament. FEMA director? Sign him up. Need to win a ballgame? No problem. David Ortiz, once again, hit a late home run to give the Boston Red Sox a crucial victory. This one was in Toronto. Ortiz was undoubtedly the star but he had company. Manny Ramirez hit a 1,374 foot home run to dead centerfield and Jonathan Papelbon pitched three scoreless innings to earn his first Major League win. Bronson Arroyo started the game, and despite pitching like poop, mostly held the Jays down.

One of the bizarre statistical tidbits from this Red Sox season has been the off-the-table drop in Bronson Arroyo’s K-rate from over 7 K/9 in 2004 to well below 5 K/9 in 2005. To his credit or maybe just out of sheer luck, he has somehow maintained effectiveness though, and last night’s start was no exception. Despite failing to record even one stinkin’ strikeout, Arroyo managed to leave the ballgame in the 7th with a 5-0 lead. He did give up 5 hits and 5 walks, however, and I think some people are fooling themselves if they think that Arroyo is going to provide a lot of help out of the bullpen should Boston reach the postseason. From my vantage point, he would seem to be just a righthanded specialist, something the Sox already have in the form of Chad Bradford.

There were some managerial frustrations last night. Why was Keith Foulke brought in with the bases loaded in the 7th, only to be pulled after finally settling down and striking out Frank Catalanotto for the second out of the inning with men on 1st and 3rd? I didn’t understand going to Foulke there to begin with and then I was really confounded by the decision to pull him only after he appeared to have become effective. Mike Timlin relieved Foulke with two outs and two on, and surrendered a game-tying, 3-run home run to Vernon Wells. The other decision I failed to understand was the one to allow Gabe Kapler to hit with Bill Mueller on 1st with 2 outs in the 10th inning. Someone needs to say it. Kapler sucks. And even if you think he has his uses (he probably does), he sure as hell still sucks enough to not be hitting in that situation – not with Johnny Damon and Alejandro Machado still available on the bench.

Anyway, those are nitpicks and not grave enough to temper my excitement after a truly exciting ballgame. The Yanks were off, the A’s beat the Tribe and the Angels lost 8-1 to Seattle.

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By Sully,

In August of 2003, I wrote about a classic I was fortunate enough to attend at Dodger Stadium. Kevin Brown and Mark Prior each had their best stuff, and two home runs off the bat of Sammy Sosa accounted for the difference in the ballgame. The main point of that entry was that great ballgames happen everyday but true classics only become such because of the principals involved. Oral history operates in baseball in such a way that when the greatest players play the most prominent roles in an important, tightly contested ballgame, it can have the makings of a classic.

Yesterday was one such game. I wouldn’t even know where to begin but I’ll try and reel off everything I can think of. Randy Johnson pitched his best game of the season while Tim Wakefield pitched the best game of his career. Jason Giambi’s solo home run in the 1st accounted for the only run of the ballgame, and it travelled only about 315 feet. In the top-of-the-8th inning, fans watching this particular ballgame witnessed David Ortiz come up in a pinch-hitting role, representing the go-ahead run against Mariano Rivera, perhaps the greatest reliever of all time. Ortiz would walk, setting up a 10-pitch showdown with Johnny Damon that included a blooper landing inches foul down the right-field line and concluded with a slow ground ball to 1st and an easy put out. An inning later, Manny Ramirez would come up against Mo as Boston’s last chance with nobody on and 2 outs. Ramirez would walk, and after Kevin Millar singled to right-center field, John Olerud came up with men on 1st and 3rd. Olerud struck out and the Red Sox lost but it almost didn’t matter. Johnson, Wakefield, Rivera, Giambi, Ortiz, Damon, Ramirez and Olerud. Wow. It was one of the best baseball games I had ever witnessed.

I’ll admit that I am excited that football season is upon us. But yesterday’s Sox-Yanks game reinforced for me that baseball is still the greatest sport in the world.

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I am sure many of you would agree that we haven’t been posting the same sort of quality around here that we have in the past. There is a reason for this. Between moving, job switching and school starting, we have all been a little too busy with real-life matters to maintain real quality here in this space. We plan on changing that. We will be cranking it up, both in terms of quantity and quality, as we enter the home stretch here and into the playoffs. This is the best time of year, and we want to make sure the material here is befitting of such a fun time for baseball fans.

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By Sully, 9/11/2005 11:11 am

Bar none, the most fulfilling win of the season. Schilling was great against a great offense and the Sox extended their American League East lead back to 4 games. Schilling, might, might, be back. And if he is, watch out. Jon Papelbon and Chad Harville have looked good, the offense is bangin’ per ususal and if the Sox get their ace back the way he can pitch, well it just may be time to perk up a little bit again.

Unit and Wake today.

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By Sully,

Bar none, the most fulfilling win of the season. Schilling was great against a great offense and the Sox extended their American League East lead back to 4 games. Schilling, might, might, be back. And if he is, watch out. Jon Papelbon and Chad Harville have looked good, the offense is bangin’ per ususal and if the Sox get their ace back the way he can pitch, well it just may be time to perk up a little bit again.

Unit and Wake today.

Comments (3)

By Mullet, 9/10/2005 10:21 am

Last night’s game was a failure. A failure by the pitching staff and a failure by the defense. It was a microcosm of the Red Sox 2005 season, with the offense churning out 11 hits, the defense committing 4 errors, and the pitching staff giving up 14 hits and 8 runs. I don’t think I can say much more about it. It all adds up to an 8-4 loss and a game gained by the Yankees (and Indians and Angels and Oakland).

If you need to read about the excuses and explanations, you can check them out in Chris Snow’s article in today’s Globe.

Me? I’m putting that game behind us. The bigger task is today when Curt Schilling takes the mound against the Yankees. This is *the* game to determine whether or not he can be helpful this year. This isn’t the White Sox offense or the Devil Rays offense or the Royals offense. This is the Yankees, the third best offense in baseball, and a possible post-season opponent. It’s time for Schilling to step up.