Fall Classic Preview

Roy Oswalt outclassed Mark Mulder last night and pulled his teammates up off the mat and into the World Series after they had suffered one of the most devastating losses in baseball history just two nights prior. There is a lot to be excited about with respect to the upcoming Fall Classic. From an historical standpoint, the mere fact that within the next 10 days or so, either the Chicago White Sox or Houston Astros will be crowned World Series Champs makes the match-up interesting. Houston, in their 44-year existence, has never been to the World Series while the White Sox haven’t won one of these things since 1917. From a pure baseball vantage point, the traditionalists can really perk up over this one. Pitching and defense have carried both the White Sox and the Astros to where they are today, and the team that pitches and defends better in this Series should be the winner. Think George Steinbrenner will enjoy this one? Jose Contreras and Orlando Hernandez will square off against Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.
Because they were able to dispel the Angels with relative ease, the White Sox hold a significant advantage. Their players are rested and Manager Ozzie Guillen will have the luxury of lining up his starting pitching however he chooses. And what a starting staff he has. In Games 2-5 of the ALCS, Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia and Jose Contreras pitched consecutive complete games, an incomprehensible feat by today’s standards and a remarkable one on its merits alone. The last team to do that in the postseason was the New York Yankees, who pulled it off in the 1956 World Series, including most famously Don Larsen’s Game Five Perfect Game. Guillen also has a remarkable bullpen at his disposal. In Neil Cotts, Damaso Marte, Bobby Jenks, Cliff Politte, Dustin Hermanson and the unflappable El Duque, Guillen will have plenty of live arms to turn to should his starters falter or the game go long into extra innings. Chicago had the American League’s best ERA among starters and 3rd best among relievers.
Like the Angels, Houston will have major trouble putting runs on the board against the White Sox. Houston finished the season 24th in Major League Baseball in runs scored and anyone that has watched this postseason has seen how they operate. If it’s not Lance Berkman, Jason Lane or Morgan Ensberg doing the damage, it’s nobody. Still, when a team finishes the year 24th in runs scored and still manages to get into the World Series, postulating that said team can’t win because they won’t score enough is a tad ridiculous.
It’s particularly ridiculous when you consider that this White Sox offense is hardly a juggernaut itself, and Houston’s pitching should be able to carve through them with relative ease. Ozzie Guillen likes to call his offensive style “Smartball” but really the Pale Hose offense functions this way; they score no runs when they don’t homer, a few runs when they do hit home runs and score a good amount of runs when they homer with men on base. Problem is, they have trouble with that last part. The White Sox had the 4th most home runs in the American League in 2005 but ranked just 11th in on-base percentage. They’re decidedly impatient and give up way too many outs from a tactical standpoint (bunts, stolen base attempts…etc.) but when Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and company are getting a hold of balls, they can score enough to win when backed by that phenomenal pitching staff.
Planning on hitting home runs and in fact doing so are two completely different things, however, particularly against this Astros pitching staff. The Astros front-3 in this Series are as good as any three in recent memory. Everyone knows about Roger Clemens, the Game One starter and many now know about Roy Oswalt, who will get the ball in Game Three. The guy that has flown under the radar this season has been Andy Pettitte, Houston’s Game Two starter. He threw 222 innings this season and had a 2.39 ERA. For all of the talk about Clemens, Chris Carpenter and Dontrelle Willis for the National League Cy Young Award, really only Clemens was better than Pettitte. He had his finest season as a professional baseball player in 2005, though you would never know it because he did it in southeastern Texas and not the Big Apple. Houston Manager Phil Garner also has a very good bullpen he can turn to. Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler were tremendous this season, and Chad Qualls is no slouch either.
These teams are virtual equals, and predicting a winner would be an exercise in guesswork and little more. Houston has a better front three, Chicago the advantage at 4th starter. Lidge is the best reliever in the Series but Chicago features more bullpen depth. The White Sox have the slight offensive advantage but Lance Berkman is a true game-changer…and so on. One team’s strength is cancelled out by the other’s in a different facet. So because of the rest factor, I’ll give the edge to the White Sox, who will clinch their first World Series in 88 years on Saturday, October 29 under a cool sky on the South Side of Chicago.