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By Mullet, 10/6/2005 6:33 pm

Apologies for the late recap. Work is kicking our behinds, and combine that with bitch fight between two of the Internet backbone providers leaving me without the ability to access this fair site from the comfy confines of my office cubicle, well, we’re lucky to get this one out at all.

As you all know, the Good Sox lost 5-4 to the Bad Sox due to a single inning outburst by said Bad Sox.

The good:
-The top of the order came through big, even if it was only for 4 runs.
-David Wells pitcher pretty well(s) with the exception of a handful of pitches in the 5th.
-Jon Papelbon continues to get it done in relief.

The bad:
-Tony Graffanino’s error.
-David Wells’ curveball to Tadahito Iguchi.

The Sox were an error and a hanging curve away from coming back with the series knotted. It’s disappointing they couldn’t muster a single run over the game’s final 6 frames, but the White Sox pitching staff isn’t exactly a pushover.

It is what it is. The Sox come home to face Chicago for two games at Fenway. They’ve got the two most veteran pitchers going for them, in a place where they score a million runs, in front of a group of fans who will make the park electric hours before the first pitch. Win and you get to play another game. It’s really that simple.

The offday gives Terry Francona some extra options in the pen, as everyone but Curt Schilling is available. These are the situations where you don’t worry about Game 4 or Game 5. You pull out every stop and deal with tomorrow tomorrow.

Rest up folks. Things are just getting started.

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By Sully, 10/4/2005 10:11 pm

Something about the sort of drubbing Boston took today that’ll suck the creative juices out of a man. Therefore, I will borrow a bit from others to illustrate my feelings on the day. First, there is a great Sox blog out there that is going up on the blogroll that I am embarassed not to have had up. It’s Chad Finn’s Touching All Bases and Chad nailed it today in his Game One preview…

I’m afraid this version of Jose Contreras is quite different from the stage-frightened meatball artist that the Sox used to knock around while he was a Yankee el busto. His command – along with his confidence – has improved significantly, and he has a splitter Curt Schilling would kill for right about now. I expect him to pitch well today. Which means that at the first sign of major trouble for Clement – who usually either has it, or he doesn’t – it’s imperative that Tito get him the hell out of there and get Bronson Arroyo in, because the Sox (Red) can’t afford to fall behind, 5-0.

The Red Sox average over 5.5 runs per game and so even when they were down 5-0, there was reason to believe they still had a shot at the game. There was no reason, however, to believe that Matt Clement had anything today. So again, we’re left to choose between two horrible explanations in order to account for Terry Francona’s actions today. He is either mind-blowiningly inept or he conceded the contest and stuck with Clement to eat innings. There is no other option.

I see little reason to delve much further into today’s contest. As Jeff said to me over IM, “c’est la vie.” Life sure seemed pretty miserable after Game 3 of last year’s ALCS, didn’t it? This thing’s far from over. As pal Rich Lederer of The Baseball Analysts wrote to me in an email with “Scott Podsednik hit a HR, Scott Podsednik hit a HR…” in the subject line…

Sully,

Oh well, if you’re gonna lose, you may as well get your ass kicked up and down the South Side of Chicago…

Tomorrow brings another day.

–Richard

Couldn’t have said it any better myself.

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By Mullet,

Los Angeles Angels (AL West Champions, 95-67) vs. New York Yankees (AL East Champions, 95-67)

A whole lotta folks are picking the Angels to represent the AL in the World Series. They’ve quietly put together one of the better starting pitching staffs in baseball (in ’05, at least), combined with a pretty solid relief corps anchored by Scot Shields and Francisco Rodriguez. And, oh yeah, they’ve got that Vladimir fellow, too. Guerrero is the solid bat in the middle of a pretty pedestrian offense. They face a Yankees team that sucked for the first half of the season, then through some magic by GM Brian Cashman and some logical bounces from some underperforming players, went on a huge run to take the AL East from the Sox and make the playoffs for the 1000th time. The Yankees have an offense that rivals the Sox, with A-Rod, Gary Sheffield, and a rejuvenated (naturally?) Jason Giambi raking away. Unfortunately for the Yankees, they’ve also got a pitching staff that rivals the Sox, saved only by ridiculously out of line performances by the in-season arrivals of Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon. The bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera–who some folks are convinced is an MVP candidate even if he’s not remotely close to one (more on that in the weeks to come).

This series is, as much as the Red Sox- White Sox, a battle of offense vs. defense. The Angels really solid pitching and defense against the Yankees slightly-less-than-juggernaut offense. It is hard to imagine the Yankees suspect pitching staff keeping Vladimir Guerrero and the rest of the mediocre Angels offense from scoring at least a few runs a game. On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine that even the great Angels staff will be able to prevent the Yankees from plating at least a few runs a game. It’s strength vs. strength. Weakness vs. weakness. It may simply come down to the team making the fewest mistakes taking the series.

Chicago White Sox (AL Central Champions, 99-63) vs. Boston Red Sox (AL Wild Card, 95-67)
I really wish I had written this preview this morning. Sully covered the White Sox well. You know the Sox. Awful pitching, awesome offense.

Today, the awful pitching outdid the offense.

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By Mullet,

Atlanta Braves (NL East Champions, 90-72) vs. Houston Astros (NL Wild Card, 89-73)
For the 143rd straight season, the Atlanta Braves won the NL East and are headed to the playoffs. While normally folks associate the Braves with fine, fine pitching, this season was as much a result of their bats. The Braves are an interesting mix of young and old players, with young starters Adam LaRoche, Johnny Estrada, and rookie trio Jeff Francoeur, Kelly Johnson, and Ryan Langerhans all seeing significant time. The Braves pitching staff is more mature, lead by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, while the surprising Jorge Sosa rounds out the top 3. Hudson and Smoltz are legitimate starters, but Sosa (and the rest of the Braves staff) seemed to do it more with smoke and mirrors given their iffy peripheral numbers.

Houston vaulted into the playoffs with a second half surge for the second year in a row. Surprsingly for a team that plays in such an offense-inducing park, the Astros lead all of baseball in run prevention, allowing just 609 runs on the season. Why did they struggle to make the playoffs? They were pretty good at run prevention on the offensive side, as well. The 3 players with the most at-bats on the Astros have OBP that look like this: .324, .323, .288. That simply won’t get it done. The Astros have 3 real hitters in Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, and Lance Berkman. That’s all they’ve got on offense. And it proved to be all they would need, as Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Andy Pettitte all had phenomenal seasons on the mound, with Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, and Chad Qualls making the final few innings of games very tough for opposing offenses.

Basically, this series is a balanced team vs. the best pitching in baseball. It’s hard to see the Braves offense giving Oswalt or Clemens trouble …. but the Braves won the season series 5-1. If Hudson and Smoltz can keep the Astros pitiful offense quiet for 5 or 6 innings, the Braves should be able to squeak out enough runs to win the series. Most prognosticators seem to be going with the Astros as the trendy pick, but they don’t have Carlos Beltran this year, and I don’t think an offense that scored less runs than the Mariners can win the World Series.

St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central Champions, 100-62) vs. San Diego Padres (NL West Champions, 82-80)
The best team in baseball for the past 2 seasons against a team that finished 2 games above .500 in the weakest division in baseball. On paper or in pixels, that sounds like a mismatch.

It is.

The Padres don’t score or prevent runs very well, even if you take into account playing in Petco. It’s Brian Giles and a bunch of other guys. Not a single player slugged .500 for the Pads. Not a single player hit 20 HRs for the Pads. Their offense is really just sad. The pitching staff is Jake Peavy and a good bullpen. Akinori Otsuka, Rudy Seanez, Chris Hammond, Scott Linebrink — all guys who should help shut down the St. Louis offense … once they’ve had their way with the Padres starting pitching.

St. Louis is a juggernaut. They score runs (3rd in the NL). They stop runs (2nd in the NL). They have a lineup that will kill you 1-5, before you get down to the bottom of the order where Tony LaRussa likes to play around with guys who don’t really do anything that well. The pitching staff is surprisingly strong, led by probably Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter, and then 4 guys who all threw about 200 innings with ERAs from 3.57-4.13. There isn’t a pitcher in the bullpen who will go into the NLDS with an ERA over 3.50. They are, from top to bottom, the strongest and most balanced team in the playoffs.

Why then should St. Louis be worried? For starters, they lost the season series to the Padres. They’ve also go Tony LaRussa as a manager, which isn’t always a great thing as he’ll end up batting his pitcher 5th at some point in this series. But it’s really hard to imagine the Padres overcoming the Cards unless their offense kicks it into some here to unforeseen gear.

——–
Back with the AL previews later.

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By Sully, 10/3/2005 4:15 pm

The Chicago White Sox, flawed though they may be, present a real challenge for the Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Their run prevention unit is one of the best in baseball, as their starters are dependable, their bullpen lights-out and their defense very good. Fortunately for Boston, as superior as Chicago may be at keeping runs off the scoreboard, Boston is that much better at scoring them. This series will provide a litmus test of sorts for the “pitching wins” crowd.

The White Sox have four starting pitchers that all had better seasons than any one of Boston’s starters. Jose Contreras, Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland contributed more than 890 innings of 3.52 ERA pitching. That’s just remarkable. Problem is, I think the Red Sox might present a tough match-up for these four. Like St. Louis’ pitchers last season, these are four guys with under-whelming strikeout totals (combined 5.70 K/9) that rely on batted balls being converted into outs. The Red Sox tend to be able to handle these types, as they are patient enough to work hitters’ counts and wait on a cookie (Think Trot Nixon’s 3-0 double off of Jason Marquis in Game 4 of last season’s World Series). Though Garland, Garcia and Buehrle show a bit of slippage since the All-Star Break, all three have still been pretty good. The Red Sox will just have to go up there with the same approach they normally take; get into favorable counts by exercising sound pitch-recognition and make pitchers pay.

If the Red Sox want to win this thing, they’ll probably have to hit Chicago’s starters because their bullpen is one of the best in the biz. In Neal Cotts, Bobby Jenks, Dustin Hermanson, Damaso Marte, Cliff Politte and Luis Vizcaino, the White Sox have 6 relievers that are probably better than any one option the Sox have. If that’s an overstatement, it’s only a slight one. Shit with Brandon McCarthy and/or El Duque potentially in the mix, it might be an understatement.

Defensively, the White Sox are also superior. Aaron Rowand and Scott Podsednik are two outfielders that can cover real estate with the best of them. Their infield defense is solid as well. Juan Uribe gets to balls Edgar Renteria can only reminisce about being able to reach. Tadahito Iguchi leaves a bit to be desired at 2nd Base but Joe Crede and Paul Konerko are just fine at the corners.

The adage “pitching wins” is not without merit but remember, pitching doesn’t take place in a vacuum. These White Sox pitchers, though better than Boston’s, have a decided handicap when matched up against the Red Sox pitchers. They have to face the Red Sox hitters. So you take your pick. Is Jose Contreras a better pitcher than Matt Clement? Bet your ass he is. But would I bet on Jose Contreras against a team that hits at a .280/.356/.453 clip over Matt Clement against a team batting .263/.323/.425? I’m not sure. The Red Sox offensive advantage is every bit as decisive as Chicago’s pitching edge. Paul Konerko is a bona fide good hitter but Chicago’s 2nd best offensive player, Jermaine Dye, hits at a level that is about in line with what the Sox crop of contributors not named Ortiz or Ramirez chip in. Guys like Damon, Nixon, Graffanino, Olerud, Mueller…you know, the solid guys. Nice players each and every one of them, but probably not the type of guy you want to be your 2nd most productive player on a championship aspirant club. Worse for the Pale Hose, there is a considerable drop-off after Dye. Iguchi is an offensive asset too but the rest of the lineup is made up of guys that would make for nice roster filler and little more. Podsednik and Rowand are well below average and the same goes for Crede and Carl Everett. A.J. Pierzynski is fine but with a .308 On-Base, he ain’t doing all that much. Chicago’s bench won’t help them either. Timo Perez, Russ Gload, Geoff Blum…blah blah blah.

Chicago has doubtless overachieved this season, but that doesn’t mean they can’t do considerable damage in these playoffs. Any one of their starters is capable of spinning a gem, while their bullpen is good enough to bail them out early and often should a starter or two have some problems. They very well may struggle with the bats, but then again, they haven’t excelled all year at putting runs on the board and they’ve come this far. Besides, there isn’t an offense above Double-A that, on a given day, couldn’t put some crooked numbers up against this Red Sox pitching staff. The Carmine Hose overlook their Pale brethren at their own peril.

For in-depth White Sox coverage, check out Exile in Wrigleyville over at All-Baseball.

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By Sully,

The Red Sox won a bizarre game yesterday, 10-1, that turned out to mean very little after the Cleveland Indians’ game went final during the 6th inning. To be perfectly honest, if you told me before the season that the Sox would tie for the best record in the AL East and that tie-breaker rules would officially make them the Wild Card winner, which would allow them an easier draw and less travel than the “Champion”, I would have taken it in a heartbeat. As far as I am concerned, the Sox are co-champs of the AL East. No matter how we got here, no matter what could have been done differently, 95 wins is a heck of a good year considering the non-contributions from Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke. The Red Sox deserved to celebrate like they did yesterday.

Manny Ramirez homered once again for Boston yesterday, his 10th since September 16th. Curt Schilling was quite good, but it’s tough to figure out just how much stock to place in the performance, given just how little the Yanks had to play for. So now it’s off to Chicago to take on the White Sox. They had been stumbling for much of the 2nd Half before finding their stride over the last couple of weeks. Their starters are OK, their hitters the same and their bullpen quite good.

One of us will be back a bit later on with some White Sox coverage and we’ll also fire up a complete playoff preview. We will also hand out our picks for the respective MLB awards during the coming weeks. So stick with us, the next month should be a lot of fun.

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By Mullet, 10/1/2005 9:38 pm

I think it’s probably still too recent and raw for me to give a good, rational recap of the Sox 8-4 loss to the Yankees that put the Yankees into the playoffs and allowed them to clinch the AL East … again. Honestly, if I tried to recap it I’d just descend into a series of expletives and long, rambling text about how reprehensible and apalling it was for a team to walk into a season-altering game against their rivals–at home, no less–and play such an abomination of a game.

I’d probably spend paragraphs on manager Terry Francona and general manager Theo Epstein and their inability to make in-season adjustments. That would segue into a tome on how sad and ridiculous it is that Kevin Millar was allowed to bat 3 times and play the field in such an important game. More expletives would be used.

Actually, for Millar, I’d probably have a whole paragraph or two of just expletives and expletives combined in new and exciting ways. And maybe even some words that aren’t expletives used as expletives. I think it’d be fun to use the word “ellipsis” as a derogatory term towards Millar.

I’d have some good words to say about the heroes. Guys like Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, who seem to bring it when it matters. And for a new guy like Tony Graffanino, who’s evolving into a similar role. I’d even throw in some good words about the young guys, the DiNardos and Hansens and Papelbons who’ve had to fight to get playing time and have really done nothing but get it done.

That would lead me into more cursing of Francona for refusing to use them (for the most part).

But, I’m not going to write that post.

Instead, I’m going to treat you to some thoughts on what it means to win. Is it enough for the Sox to back into the playoffs, if Cleveland manages to lose again tomorrow to a White Sox team that’s trying to hand them the game? Does it matter that the Sox aren’t the AL East champs, even if they finish with the same record as the Yankees? Should we even care, given that the Sox won the World Series just a short 12 months ago?

In order, the answers are no, yes, and hell yes!

If you don’t root for your team to win every game in every season, what kind of a fan are you? Sure, it’s not rational to think your team will win every game. And, as a manager, you certainly can’t burn out your guys trying to go balls out to squeeze out every win.

But the goal you set at the beginning of the year is to win the World Series, and when you’re in Boston, with the resources available to you, anything short of that is a defeat. A nauseating, pit of the stomach defeat. Each defeat along the way is a small portion of that pain. Some losses hurt more than others.

Losing the AL East crown on your home field with the playoffs on the line to a team that should have been dead a long time ago is like getting hit by a train.

Some people are arguing and will argue that today’s loss doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things if the Sox still make the playoffs. Of course it means something! How can a rational competitive baseball fan, player, manager, or team say with a straight face that just making the playoffs is enough?! Winning the division would have meant something, and losing it does mean something.

Now, tomorrow is another must win game. The Sox win and they’re in. And that’s the first step towards redemption. Towards redeeming themselves after today’s debacle. Towards reclaiming a little pride after losing the division. Towards not losing the season. Towards the only victory that really matters. Towards the World Series. Towards another championship.

Anything less is unacceptable.

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By Sully,

Just as he did on the crisp, clear afternoon of October 14, 2003, David Wells took to the Fenway hill last night in a pressure-packed game between baseball’s most bitter of rivals and didn’t back down at all. He weathered a shaky start, uncharacteristically issuing back-to-back walks to Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi before plunking Gary Sheffield on the right foot. Hideki Matsui singled to plate one of the runs but the Yanks were done in the 1st after Jorge Posada and Ruben Sierra were retired to end the threat. It’s really sort of just how the Yankees lineup works. You do your best to scratch and claw your way through the top-5 and then you can breathe a little easier after you get past Matsui. The Yanks jumped out to a quick 1-0 lead but couldn’t score again until the 7th.

For his part, Chien Ming Wang did his best against a Boston lineup that offers a tough match-up for him. Like Derek Lowe, Wang relies on the opposition swinging at pitches that initially appear to be strikes but then dive downward beneath the strike zone. These pitches induce a lot of ground balls, and Wang has made a living off them this season. When Lowe was with the Red Sox he often struggled against the Yankees because they would wait him out. When Lowe was going best, he wouldn’t be forced to throw many called strikes because the opposition would swing at plenty of non-strikes anyway. Well Wang met his match in the Red Sox the same way Lowe had found his match so many times in the Bombers. In his final regular season start of a year in which he allowed 32 walks in over 116 innings pitched, he gave up 6 in 6 and 2/3rds. His stuff was very good – the Sox managed just 4 hits – but his strategy was a flawed one against a Red Sox team that will let pitches just outside the strike-zone pass all night long.

Offensively for the Sox, there were a number of contributors. Johnny Damon, after leading the game off with a walk and a steal, scored on David Ortiz’s single. In the 2nd, Jason Varitek, after a big 8th-inning single Thursday night, hit a long home run into the Monster seats in left-center field. He seems to have perhaps turned a corner. That was all the Red Sox would get until the 6th, when the wheels came off a bit for Wang. The Sox were able to parlay two walks, two hits and a costly Jason Giambi error into 3 runs, and took a 5-1 lead into the bottom of the 7th.

David Wells would finish off his outing after retiring Jason Giambi to end the 7th but not before surrendering a two-run home run to Derek Jeter. Boomer had done his part and then some, however. He struck out five and allowed nine baserunners in seven innings. Between the end of the 1st and the 5th, he retired 14 of 15 batters. Not quite vintage Wells, but a much-needed solid outing in his biggest start this season.

The OOGIES and Timlin finished the Yanks off in the 8th and 9th and the Sox held on for a 5-3 win.

The Tribe lost in 13 to the ChiSox, so that’s nice too. The Yanks and Sox are tied for both the Division and Wild Card leads, but not for long. At 1:15pm, Randy Johnson and Tim Wakefield will see if they can’t replicate the classic they hooked up for just weeks ago. Again people, make sure you enjoy this stuff.