- The Phills made one of those “do you really need to be paying millions to guys like this” signings yesterday, adding Abraham Nunez and agreeing to compensate him $3.35 million over the next two seasons. Nunez is a good fielder but a career .248/.314/.326 hitter. He’s the kind of guy whose skills can be found throughout Minor League baseball. What the Phills will get out of Nunez for $1.65+ million per season, they could just as easily have gotten out of any number of freely available guys throughout professional baseball.

- Surely by now you heard that the Mets have guaranteed Billy Wagner $43 million over the next four years. For the JP haters, just consider that B.J. Ryan will be Wagner’s age when his contract expires so maybe that deal isn’t so ridiculous after all.

- Manny talks seem to be heating up and I have to say, I’m coming around. If there is any truth to the talk of Cliff Floyd, Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman coming for Ramirez, it would be just an unbelievable fleecing by the Sox Front Office. Floyd alone was a better ballplayer than Manny in 2005, and to get a dependable righthanded arm and a top-flight outfield prospect seems too good to be true. So it probably is.

Without a doubt, the Toronto Blue Jays overpaid to attract BJ Ryan north of the border. Five years and $47 million is a lot of years and a lot of dough for Ryan, who really only has two dominant seasons to his credit (though his stuff has stood out his whole career). I am of the belief that the 29 year-old Ryan is a true stud, worthy of the sort of money that top-flight relievers are getting. Mariano Rivera will make $10.5 million for his 36-year old season. Billy Wagner is reportedly mulling an offer of 4 years, $40 million for his 34-37 year seasons. Jason Isringhausen pulls down $8.5 million per year.

One of the more popular performance analysis mantras is the notion that relievers are fungible, and that live arms are always freely available. There is considerable truth to this, but I think you gotta go all out when a relief ace with a demonstrable track record that figures to project is available. You can fill around your bullpen ace with the aforementioned “live arms”, and Toronto will do just that with guys like Jason Frasor, Justin Speier and Vinnie Chulk. For all intents and purposes, the Blue Jays have lopped off the final third of the game. There just won’t be much scoring against this bullpen.

So the overpayment story you hear may be true but it just won’t be all that debilitating for Toronto.

Update: A similar thesis with more detail over at the great Blue Jays blog The Batters Box.

Well now the Red Sox have added Guillermo Mota to the mix, while shipping off a guy that gave up over a hit per inning in the Sally league last year, Harvey Garcia. The deal is now official. Say what you will about losing quality prospects like Han-Ram and Anibal, but the more I think about this deal the less I can find fault with it – especially if the Sox can lock Josh Beckett up pre-arbitration at a reasonable price. You can hold out judgment until 2008 on this deal if you would like but what this deal doubtless does is improve the 2006 Red Sox. Taking stock of where the team is right now and considering they won 95 games in 2005, there is reason for optimism in 2006.

In 2005, the Sox featured a dreadful, 4th-worst in the American League 4.74 team-ERA. Their starters’ ERA was 4.56. In that starting fold for 2006, however, there appear to be three power righties that Sox fans can count on to drastically improve their rotation:

- Curt Schilling
Yes, he’s 39. Yes, he’s coming off an injury-plagued season in which he posted a 77 ERA+. But he has another full off-season to heal up the ankle and get back out there. Forecasting a return to 2004 form may be pie-in-the-sky but I don’t see any reason not to expect 200+ innings of 4ish ERA pitching.

- Josh Beckett
At the outset I was not as excited about this deal as I should have been. Beckett’s tremendous and even though the blister problems have been debilitating, the guy has still averaged 25 starts a year and the silver lining of Beckett’s missed time is that he has not pitched enough innings at a young age to merit concerns about his arm.

- Jon Papelbon
Figures to move to the rotation in 2006. In 34 innings for the Sox in 2005, Paps put up a 166 ERA+. His pitching will improve the Sox for sure but the question remains, will the kid hold up over a full season of taking a turn every fifth game. He has never thrown more than 140 innings or so in a given season so if he is in fact handed a rotation spot in 2006, he figures to enter uncharted workload waters come August or so.

In addition to a bad rotation in 2005, the Sox also had a league-worst 5.15 bullpen ERA. But with the addition of Mota, who I grant you is an uncertainty in 2006, Boston has some intriguing prospects to significantly upgrade the relief pitching.

- Guillermo Mota
After throwing over 200 innings between 2003 and 2004, Mota experienced some arm troubles in 2005 and never really recovered. He was awful after coming back from the injury but has had enough success over the course of his career to justify hope for 2006. A bounce-back year from Mota could go a long way to shoring up a major weakness.

- Keith Foulke
Everyone knows about Foulke’s troubles in 2005. Personal issues and an array of injuries turned Foulke into a bona fide batting practice pitcher. Like Schilling however, he will have a full off-season to sort it all out. Maybe we never see the dominant force again but I don’t think portending effectiveness would be over-zealous. Foulke knows how to pitch, and provided he is healthy enough in ’06, he too should help.

- Craig Hansen
Around the web, Sox fans are notorious for overrating their prospects. Over at Baseball Think Factory, the non-Sox fans especially liked to kill us over our premature declarations that Hansen would be the Red Sox bullpen savior. OK maybe I was guilty as charged on that front but look, suggesting that Hansen can help to improve a bullpen that routinely laid waste to comfortable Red Sox leads in 2005 just isn’t that lofty of an expectation. Hansen will be nasty, probably erratic too, but in the end will net out as an asset.

As for position players, the changes we know of so far should help. For starters, the Sox did not get a whole lot out of 2nd Base in 2005. They were 8th in the American League for OPS at that position last season but with Dustin Pedroia on the way, they figure to improve. Pedroia has hit .391/.473 throughout his Minor League career but he is probably even a tad better than that. His AAA numbers were pretty pedestrian and probably so because he was hit on the wrist by a pitch shortly after his call-up from Portland. He missed some time, and wasn’t the same after he returned. Ex out his PawSox numbers and you are looking at a guy that has hit .418/.518 as a Minor Leaguer. Sox 2nd Baseman hit .254/.333/.396 in 2005. Pedroia figures to improve upon this.

The Sox were famously bad at 1st Base in 2005. Kevin Millar chipped in a sub-.400 slugging average and John Olerud, save a hot week or two, was not much of an improvement. With Mike Lowell in the fold this season (I am not even close to as down on him as Mullet), and Kevin Youkilis looking like he is ready to be an everyday MLB 1st Baseman (or at least an improvement on Millar), it looks like the Sox should improve their production there. Even though Lowell was a HACKING MASS darling in 2005, his three-year splits make him look much better. He is 32, and while playing home games in a pitchers park where fly-balls go to die, he put up a .270/.339/.467 line between 2003 and 2005. Lowell himself is a big fly-ball hitter and a dead-pull one at that. Fenway will benefit him. Even still, the Sox should not feel content with just these two in the fold for 1st and 3rd. With guys like Bronson Arroyo, David Wells, Wade Miller, Lenny DiNardo, Abe Alvarez and Matt Clement still in the mix, the Sox could and should net a Lyle Overbay from Milwaukee or Adrian Gonzalez from Texas. Roberto Petagine should be back as well.

The big remaining concern is the outfield. Johnny Damon’s asking price seems to be too high, and given his precipitous late-season drop-off in 2005, could you blame the Sox for passing on him? So there very well may be a big hole in centerfield. If I am the Sox, I am thinking about tossing my hat in the ring for Phillies CF, Jason Michaels. With a career 113 OPS+ and advanced defensive metrics showing him to be a fine center-fielder, it looks to me like all Michaels needs is an everyday chance. WithAaron Rowand now in the fold in Philly, Michaels won’t get that chance there. He’s expendable, probably available and an added benefit may be that Boston could foil the Yankees’ attempt to get a guy that would also make a ton of sense for them.

Staying with the outfield, Manny Ramirez reportedly wants out. If the Sox are to package a deal involving Manny, they must get a big return for the American League’s best left-fielder. The Jim Thome deal looks like a good barometer to me. If Thome + cash can net the Phills a top-10 CF plus two promising minor league pitchers, and Carlos Delgado + cash can net the Fish a top-50 prospect and an MLB-ready 1st Baseman, the Sox ought to be able to retrieve some nice swag for Manny. If the Sox send Manny + cash, they ought to be looking for a very good outfielder and more in return.

As for right field, I am comfortable with neither Trot Nixon’s health nor his performance. Red flags abound for the guy and the Sox will suffer without a good 4th outfielder in the mix. A David Wells-Dave Roberts deal could improve the outfield depth but I think the Sox would be well served to think a little bigger here. A super 4th outfielder along the lines of a Ricky Ledee, Juan Rivera or Reggie Sanders would make the most sense given Nixon’s annual health problems.

As of right now, the Sox appear to be heading in the right direction for 2006. Ready-made solutions are in place for some of the pitching problems, and the club figures to improve at 1st and 2nd Base as well. Judiciousness with respect to outfield construction will go a long way to ensuring more success in the Back Bay next year.

Just a quick note: the Sox managed to get Guillermo Mota added to the Beckett deal, which is a good thing just in the “let’s have another solid arm for the pen” way. I don’t expect Mota to regain the amazing numbers he put up in ‘03 or even the good numbers he put up in ‘04. He’s more likely to just be an league average arm, but that’s better than a bunch of the arms the Sox ran through the pen last year, so that’s ok with me.

With each bit of good news, comes a bit of bad news. Chris Snow and Gordon Edes, the Globe’s two main Sox writers, had managed to stay above the “Sox-Globe improprieties” mess. They have both proven to be solid, talented writers on occasion, and certainly competent the rest of the time.

But when you see trade “analysis” like in today’s Globe, you certainly wonder if it is simply an impossibility at the Globe to offer a critical eye to anything the Sox do these days.

The bit that rubbed me wrong?

And so, the deal, after this major permutation, reads like this: Beckett (the new ace of the Sox staff), Lowell (the new starting third baseman, and a Gold Glove winner in 2005), and Mota (one of baseball’s premier setup men in 2003 and ‘04) for Double A shortstop Hanley Ramírez, Double A righthander Anibal Sanchez, and Single A righthanders Jesus Delgado and Garcia.

Beckett’s very good, and I like him an awful lot. That being said, he’s never in his career had numbers good enough to be considered an “ace.” He could certainly, and likely will, continue to develop a bit, but if he’s the ace of the staff, the Sox will have one of the worst #1 starters amongst the baseball elites.

The kicker, of course, is Lowell. Right now, he shouldn’t be penciled in for a roster spot, let alone to be the starting third baseman. This is a guy who hit like a crippled Pokey Reese last year. Worse than Bellhorn, or Renteria, or Millar, or anybody the Sox ran out there basically. A sub-.300 OBP, a sub-.370 SLG, and he’s our starting 3B? There’s a whole lot of evidence that he’s done, cooked, busted. And the Globe is trying to spin it like the Sox acquired Scott Rolen. That’s just downright dishonest.

This is an ok trade for the Sox. It’s not a steal. We gave up 2 very highly touted prospects, and 2 high ceiling prospects, for a really good pitcher who may never be great and may never be completely healthy; an aging, declining, possibly cooked, yet still expensive 3B; and a setup guy who had 2 good years in a really good pitching environment, and a whole lot of mediocre years.

It’s a win now move, but this isn’t a steal, it’s not a definite “win,” and it’s not even a no-brainer. Quite frankly, I wonder if this is a move that Theo wouldn’t have stayed away from, as it thins out the farm system a good deal and adds in a couple of players (Mota, Lowell) who’ll probably not be better than the younger counterparts we already have (Youkilis, Delcarmen/Hansen/DiNardo), but “savvy vets” so Terry Francona will feel comfortable using them.

- So it looks like the Sox traded for Josh Beckett, who has had a blister injury recur six times and landed on the DL another three times because of a pulled back muscle, strained oblique and a sprained elbow. Hey, he’s 25 and a very good pitcher when on the mound but I am not gonna do cartwheels over 150 innings of 120 ERA+ pitching, which is really all he appears to be able to chip in. Really that’s just Kirk Saarloos in 2005 minus 7 or 8 earned runs. I think I am supportive of this deal because of Beckett’s potential but I am tempering my enthusiasm. And for what it’s worth, I think Lowell could bounce back pretty nicely this season. Whither Youks?

- Jim Beattie and Jim Bowden were each back for their second interviews yesterday. Still feeling awesome about life?

Yes, yesterday was the very best day for baseball fans here in Boston since the Red Sox clinched a post-season berth on the last day of the 2005 regular season. But we are far from out of the woods.

I used to buy those things once a month, and got legitimately angry when my Jody Reed card fell to the level of common. Now the Red Sox seem to have the real article.

Let’s assume for a second that the trade goes off without a hitch. Tada! You have won a shiny 25-year-old chock-full-o-potential World Series MVP, and a dude that seemed to forget how to get his hit on. All it cost the Sox was PTBNL (apparently a pitcher who isn’t on the 40…your guess is as good as mine.) Oh, and the 2005 Postseason #3 and #9 prospects in the Eastern League.

First what the Sox get.

Josh Beckett is a 25 year old right handed pitcher that, for reasons only know to His Cruel Master Satan, has never been able to throw 200 innings in a year. Of the 11 times he has found him self on the disabled list since 2001, nine of them have been a result of a blister on his right hand. Other than that, the gentleman has pretty much been all hype, and not much return over the 162, just because of his inability to stay healthy.

Earlier this year, I wondered out loud to the world if Beckett was going to be one of those guys that never lived up to his potential. Be it through his struggles with immaturity (he frequently lashes out at umpires and that fun stuff, which if he were black would earn him a colorful nickname from the dudes that cover Los Sox. Jurassic Josh maybe?) or the fact he can’t seem to throw his explosive fastball without having moisture deposit itself between the dermis and the epidermis (Science!).

Of course, if he stays healthy, and he’s missed less time this year, than he’s got the to be the most dominant starting pitcher for the Red Sox in a long time (not counting the two Cooperstown-bound men that are currently pitching for the Astros and Mets.)

The other player coming to Boston is Mike Lowell, who has a troubling trend of collapsing faster than [insert celebrity’s name]’s [noun]. I’d go with Nicole Ritchie’s weight, but you can do whatever you want there.

Since his breakout 2003, he has done thusly:
2003: 276/350/530
2004: 293/365/505
2005: 236/298/360

Now, players don’t usually just bottom out like that, especially after statistically insignificantly different years, but at age 32, Lowell can’t expected to post a 360 on base or a 500 slug anymore. Basically, what his 18 million over the next two years will get you is a lot of grousing over the lack of production that the Red Sox were used to getting out of Bill Mueller or Kevin Millar.

On the minus side of the ledger…

Hanley Ramirez and Anibel Sanchez heading to South Florida after one’s second bad year of three, and the other after his breakout year.

This brings us to a philosophical point. What is the value of a prospect? It’s a pretty safe assumption that prospect has a pretty low chance of panning out. Even for the studs, like Hanley. They are most valuable in being chits for trade with a team like Boston, who is always contending. Hanley Ramirez’s entire worth to the Red Sox right now is as someone whose potential is good enough for a team to surrender a player who has actually rendered tangible results. Same with Sanchez, and the PTBNL. The Red Sox in essence are paying for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell with Ramirez, Later, and Sanchez’s futures. This is true for all fire-sales…the perceived value of the prospect is worth the major leaguer heading in the other direction.

My estimation that Hanley Ramirez can turn into Edgar Renteria, and Anibel Sanchez could turn into Javier Vazquez. It’s just as likely they turn into Alex Gonzalez (the ex-Cub) and Joel Piniero. Or they might become nothing.

There are limits to equity trading using your farm. Players of dubious value aren’t worth much, never mind Jeff Bagewell…but given what we know about baseball crystal balling, why wouldn’t you do a Mike Boddicker for a spare OF and a thick bodied pitcher trade if it will push you to the playoffs?

The Red Sox has one guy now that truly makes them better, that’s Josh Beckett…as long as he can stay healthy. The real cost is paying for a corpse, and hoping that the Marlins misfire in the throwing of these three particular darts.

On SportsCenter, Peter Gammons just announced that the Red Sox and Marlins agreed to a trade for Josh Beckett.

To Florida:
SS Hanley Ramirez
SP Anibel Sanchez
PTBNL (Can’t be a 2005 draftee)

To Boston:
3b Mike Lowell
SP Josh Beckett

Trade is pending physicals.

I’ll have more by tomorrow morning.

John Sickels reviews his Pre-Season Red Sox Top-20 Prospects…

5) Jon Lester, LHP
11-6, 2.61 in 26 starts for Portland, 163/57 K/BB in 148 innings. Took a huge step forward this year, refining his control while maintaining his velocity and movement. A top prospect no question.

As anyone who reads John can attest, his work is well worth checking out.

Well it’s that time of year again, when General Managers across baseball fail to take into account things like fluke seasons, age and replaceability. Jim Hendry and the Chicago Cubs have thus far been 2005’s worst offenders, committing significant resources to both Neifi Perez and Scott Eyre. Perez isn’t the least handy guy to have around on your roster because he can field. Problem is, when you start handing him a lot of plate appearances, he’ll hurt your offense badly. When you give him six-hundred plate appearances and bat him second as Dusty Baker almost surely will, he’ll submerge any and all contention hopes you might have. There’s just no need to be handing out serious resources to a guy whose main skill-set you can take advantage of simply by taking a good hard look around your minor league rosters. The Washington Nationals’ current, and Red Sox prospective General Manager Jim Bowen made one such move yesterday as well. The Nats inked Marlon Anderson to a 2-year deal worth a little less than $2 million. Anderson’s pretty much useless at this point. He is not much of a hitter and though he can play multiple positions, he doesn’t play any of them particularly well. $2 million isn’t a ton of money, but there is just no need to be seeking these types of players out.

Eyre provides a different case. On the one hand, he had a very good year in 2005, and assuming he can replicate 2005 in each of the next three seasons, the $11.5 million the Cubs committed to Eyre might make a little sense. But if you even for one second try and actually analyze whether or not Eyre would be worth it, there’s just no way around concluding that this move just smacks of lunacy. For starters, Eyre will be 34 years old next season. Further, even though he had a 157 ERA+ in 2005, his career numbers are far less impressive. Here’s an excerpt from the story in the San Francisco Gate…

Eyre led the league with 86 appearances pitching for San Francisco last season, going 2-2 with a career best 2.63 ERA. He struck out 65 batters and walked 26 in 68 1-3 innings, holding opponents to a .200 batting average.

I can’t wait for the day when a story like this one says something like this…

“The Cubs inked Scott Eyre yesterday to a three-year, $11.5 million dollar deal. Eyre is 34 years-old and sports a career 4.52 ERA.”

What’s worse for the Cubs, Eyre doesn’t really fit all that well on their roster. Wil Ohman is a perfectly fine LOOGY, and Glendon Rusch has proven to be useful over the last few seasons. Committing finite resources to guys like Perez and Eyre will almost certainly limit their ability to add an additional hitter or two to a lineup that is in desperate need of another impact bat.

I guess I am not surprised but it never ceases to amaze me that GM’s don’t learn from their past mistakes. I mean the Cubs are just now getting out of their crippling, three-year obligation to Mike Remlinger, whom they signed after he had his very best year in his mid-thirties. If General Managers could understand three things about roster construction, they would do a lot to avoid the pitfalls of a bad acquisition. First, that there are a lot of minor leaguers that could do just as well as the lower tier of Major League players and effectively rewarding players for service time is a mistake. Second, players have excellent seasons sometimes that do not necessarily portend the replication of that season. A player’s full record is more instrutive than his most recent season. And finally, guys regress as they age.

Replaceability, fluke seasons and regression due to age. Just keep those things in mind and you’ll be ok.

We’re having some minor hosting issues, which will cause some blips in the next two weeks or so.

Sorry for any inconvience…we suck at interweb.

1) How do you win the Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and lose the MVP to a guy that plays your position?

2) How does someone as inferior to Derrek Lee (.335/.418/.662) as Andruw Jones (.263/.347/.575) finish ahead of Lee in the voting?

3) How does Bobby Abreu finish fourth amongst Phillies in MVP voting?

Oh and congrats to Trevor Hoffman and David Eckstein on the fourth-place and fifth-place votes, respectively.

David Ortiz, DH: .300/.397/.604 (161 OPS+)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: .321/.421/.610 (167 OPS+)

From today’s Herald…

Apparently, America is not ready to elect a designated hitter as its Most Valuable Player. We can put Geena Davis in the White House, but we can’t give the MVP to a man who routinely snatches victory from the jaws of defeat.

Alex Rodriguez won the American League MVP award yesterday, but the story here in Boston is that David Ortiz did not. Ortiz did everything a designated hitter possibly could do to win the award, but the voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America continue to treat the DH as if it were VD.

Mr. Massorotti, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Well they got the American League MVP right but much of the ballot is still pretty crazy. For instance, did you know that Bob Wickman got a 9th place vote but his teammate, the slick-fielding Jhonny Perlata (.292/.366/.520) was altogether left off of the ballot? Scott Podsednik showed up on four ballots. Here is a complete list of AL position players to garner at least one top-10 vote plus Peralta, sorted by OPS+.

Hafner: 170
A-Rod: 167
Ortiz: 161
Guererro: 156
Manny: 156
Giambi: 156
Teixeira: 146
Roberts: 145
Sexson: 140
Peralta: 139
Konerko: 136
Young: 133
Tejada: 133
Sheffield: 132
V. Mart: 132
Matsui: 125
Varitek: 125
Sizemore: 125
Jeter: 121
Damon: 113
Cantu: 112
Chavez: 106
Figgins: 103
Podsednik: 86

Paul Konerko, a 1st Baseman with a 136 OPS+ this season, finished 6th on the ballot. Peralta, a good SS with a 139 OPS+, couldn’t crack the Top-28 in the AL according to the BBWAA. Eric Chavez? Scott Podsednik? Bob Wickman?

Doesn’t baseball deserve better than this?

Chicago Cubs
Finish: Fourth in the NL Central 79-83, 21 games behind the Cardinals
Pythag Record: 80-82

General Manager: Jim Hendry
Manager: Dusty Baker

Adj RS/G: 4.2 (11th in the NL)
Offensive Efficiency: 94.5%
Sacrifices (per 550): 6.7
Stolen Bases Gained: -39.1
Park adjustment: 1.014 (over 1.000 favors hitters)
Run rate: .214 (Leader: D Lee [.305], Trailer: Patterson [.151])
DP rate: 1 per 19.3 ops (leader Patterson [37.4], Trailer: Perez [10.5])
“Little things” runs lost: -20.11

Runs Saved
Starters: 135.690 (7th in the NL)
Relievers: 57.730 (11th in the NL)
Adj RA/G: 4.4
Defensive Efficiency: 70.0%

The Hitters
C: Michael Barrett .276/.345/.479 5.54 898 PVR
1b: Derrek Lee .335/.418/.662 8.68 1406 PVR
2b: Todd Walker .305/.355/.474 5.20 842 PVR
3b: Aramis Ramirez .302/.358/.568 6.22 1008 PVR
SS: Neifi Perez .274/.298/.383 3.38 547 PVR
LF: Todd Hollandsworth .254/.301/.338 3.45 559 PVR
CF: Corey Patterson .215/.254/.348 2.30 373 PVR
RF: Jeromy Burnitz .258/.322/.435 4.49 727 PVR

Notable Benchmen:
Jerry Hairston .261/.336/.368 4.10 665 PVR
Nomar Garciaparra .283/.320/.452 4.28 693 PVR
Jose Macias .254/.274/.316 3.56 577 PVR
Henry Blanco .242/.286/.391 3.26 528 PVR
Jason DuBois .239/.272/.472 3.44 557 PVR
Matt Murton .321/.386/.521 4.85 786 PVR

Pitching
Rotation (5 best by Runs Saved)
Carlos Zambrano 14-6 3.26 52.065
Mark Prior 11-7 3.67 32.049
Greg Maddux 13-15 4.24 29.066
Jerome Williams 6-8 3.91 16.430
Glendon Rusch 9-8 4.52 13.232

5 Best Relievers (by Runs Saved)
Ryan Dempster 63g 92.0ip 33 sv 23.017
Mike Wuertz 75g 75.7ip 0 sv 13.422
Will Ohman 69g 43.3ip 0 sv 12.013
Roberto Novoa 49g 44.7ip 0 sv 4.813
Latroy Hawkins 21g 19.0ip 0 sv 4.406

Other notable starting pitchers:
Kerry Wood 3-3 4.67 4.416

Other notable relievers:
Mike Remlinger 35g 33.0ip 0 sv 1.810

Starters Rates:
K/9: 7.24
BB/9: 3.04
HR/9: 1.11
K:BB: 2.38
DIPS ERA: 4.18

Relievers Rates:
K/9: 9.20
BB/9: 3.34
HR/9: 1.05
K:BB: 1.75
DIPS ERA: 4.44

Staff Usage:
6.1 Innings per start
2.8 Relievers per Game
0.98 Innings per Appearance

Jeff offered up a brief explanation in his Pirates Season in Review piece but I thought I would delve a little further into our vision for the future of this place.

Basically, we don’t want to be writing if we aren’t adding value to the larger discussion. The more we considered what this place should look like from that angle, we realized a few things. Inasmuch as we are a fan site, we don’t do it as well as Surviving Grady. Inasmuch as we are a place to report and comment on Red Sox games and news, we don’t do it as well as Joy of Sox. So what really is our niche? What differentiates us? We thought long and hard about this and here’s what I think. I think that we are as strong as any Sox blog out there analytically, so we have that going for us. I think we have our finger on the pulse of the rest of Major League Baseball more than most Sox blogs. And finally, all three of us, even though we love the Boston Red Sox, love the game of baseball even more. So we concluded that, going forward, we ought to have more of a bent towards baseball in general and a little less focus on the Red Sox.

So what of the name of our site? After all, Dwight Evans was a Red Sox and aren’t we shifting our focus away from the Sox? Well we’re comfy with it. We all happen to share some fundamental beliefs with respect to what makes a baseball player good and we all believe that Dwight Evans ran the gamut in terms of possessing a skill set that many baseball fans probably under-appreciate. He was exactly the kind of player that, still today, can be had at a discount. He was a rangey rightfielder with a cannon for an arm, a run-of-the-mill batting average, a propensity to draw walks and plenty of pop in his bat. So in a sense, Dewey - or his ilk to be exact - did sort of build this place. After reading and learning more about baseball than I ever thought possible, it was the conviction I developed in my belief that players like Dwight Evans were overlooked that drove me to write here. Jeff named this site after him not only because he was one of his favorites growing up, but also because he came to understand just how good Evans was. And finally, we’ll be maintaining enough of an output-quantity bias towards the Sox that the Dewey moniker will not seem inappropriate anyway.

Our goal is to be the Sox blogosphere’s #1 destination for Sox-and-beyond coverage. We’ll do game recaps but we want to do them while looking to extract macro themes. For instance, if Terry Francona pulls his starter and goes to some mediocrity with the bases loaded in a tie game in the 5th because his best relievers are earmarked for the end of a ballgame, we may shift focus from the game itself to the larger theme of bullpen usage. In trying to seek out larger themes our goal is to come up with a format resembling a mini-version of Jonah Keri’s “Prospectus Game of the Week” for our recaps. We’ll also keep a keen eye on the rest of MLB. We will once again do team previews next March. We will be all over the Hot Stove. We’ll be dishing out our share to the mainstream media I imagine too. Hopefully the format ends up feeling something like Futility Infielder (only with worse writing), where Jay Jaffe ruminates on whatever the hell he feels like but more often than not, the Dodgers or Yankees. We’ll do the same but with a Red Sox bias and we’ll also feature Sox game recaps.

We’ve spent the last few years figuring out what it is we’re good at and think we have been able to identify how it is that we add value. We are looking forward to formatting Dewey’s House with a focus on our strengths and stepping the quality up.

Over on our little message board, I do a stat breakdown on each series. It’s very light on analysis, heavy on numbers. I let you infer what you want.

Well, in an effort to put more of a Major League Baseball spin on this, I’ll be simulcasting the team by team stat breakdowns that I post on Dewey’s House over here. If you don’t like numbers, just tune me out…I’ll be back being occasionally smarmy in 2 months or so.

If you want to know what a number means, here is the Stat glossary

The team name is hyperlinked to the post and discussion on BWP, in case you have trouble reading the numbers (they are hard to seperate a bit).

Pittsburgh Pirates
Finish: Sixth in the NL Central 67-95 33 games behind the Cardinals
Pythag Record: 72-90

General Manager: David Littlefield
Manager: Lloyd McClendon

Adj RS/G: 4.2 (13th in the NL)
Offensive Efficiency: 94.3%
Sacrifices (per 550): 5.0
Stolen Bases Gained: -7.1
Park adjustment: 0.994 (over 1.000 favors hitters)
Run rate: .215 (Leader: Bay [.299], Trailer: J Wilson [.177])
DP rate: 1 per 19.3 ops (leader Mackowiak [31.3], Trailer: Ward [10.9])
“Little things” runs lost: -15.17

Runs Saved
Starters: 68.143 (14th in the NL)
Relievers: 69.123 (8th in the NL)
Adj RA/G: 4.9
Defensive Efficiency: 69.5%

Hitting
C: Humberto Cota .242/.285/.387 3.44 557 PVR
1b: Daryle Ward .260/.318/.405 4.10 664 PVR
2b: Jose Castillo .268/.307/.416 4.10 664 PVR
3b: Freddy Sanchez .291/.336/.400 4.65 753 PVR
SS: Jack Wilson .257/.299/.363 3.54 573 PVR
LF: Jason Bay .306/.402/.559 8.06 1305 PVR
CF: Tike Redman .251/.292/.332 3.33 539 PVR
RF: Matt Lawton .273/.380/.433 5.70 923 PVR

Notable Benchmen:
Rob Mackowiak .272/.337/.389 4.63 750 PVR
Craig Wilson .264/.387/.421 4.98 807 PVR
Brad Eldred .221/.279/.458 2.50 405 PVR
Ty Wigginton .258/.324/.465 4.91 796 PVR
Chris Duffy .341/.385/.429 6.77 1096 PVR
Nate McLouth .257/.305/.450 2.97 482 PVR
Dave Ross .222/.263/.380 2.56 414 PVR

Pitching
Rotation (5 best by Runs Saved)
Zach Duke 8-2 1.81 32.837
Paul Maholm 3-1 2.18 14.330
Dave Williams 10-11 4.41 13.623
Mark Redman 5-15 4.90 7.972
Josh Fogg 6-11 5.05 5.946

5 Best Relievers (by Runs Saved)
Salomon Torres 78g 94.7ip 3 sv 26.723
Mike Gonzalez 51g 50.0ip 3 sv 14.431
Rick White 71g 75.0ip 2 sv 13.147
Ryan Vogelsong 44g 81.3ip 0 sv 7.875
Brian Meadows 65g 74.7ip 0 sv 5.951

Other notable starting pitchers:
Kip Wells 8-18 5.09 4.130
Oliver Perez 7-5 5.85 -6.372

Other notable relievers:
Jose Mesa 55g 56.7ip 27 sv 3.355
John Grabow 63g 52.0ip 0sv 4.7

Starters Rates:
K/9: 5.82
BB/9: 3.79
HR/9: 1.17
K:BB: 1.56
DIPS ERA: 4.76

Relievers Rates:
K/9: 6.15
BB/9: 3.92
HR/9: 0.73
K:BB: 1.57
DIPS ERA: 4.18

Staff Usage:
5.7 Innings per start
2.8 Relievers per Game
1.15 Innings per Appearance

Those clever parody sketch-aristists, the BBWAA, came out with another doozy today. Chris Carpenter was awarded the National League Cy Young, because you know, those additional 30 innings of 9ish ERA pitching that Carpenter had over Roger Clemens made him just that much better this season.

Oh and Chad Cordero pulled down a 3rd place vote. Think about that for a minute or two.

Kudos, Bruce Allen. Here’s Bruce in today’s recap of the GM situation.

Gordon Edes and Michael Silverman report that the Red Sox are not trying to lure Theo Epstein back into the fold, so that rumor can be put to bed. Sean McAdam also reports on the rumors, but apparently prior to the announcement last night by John Henry and Tom Werner that they were not pursuing Theo. Part of me says that these rumors of the Red Sox trying to get Theo to change his mind are coming from the Red Sox, as an effort at damage control. Even with the denial last night, with recent events you can’t help but think that. Do you think the irrelevant one, Dan Shaughnessy, wrote that column yesterday on his own? He can deny to his grave that he wasn’t told to write, but events of the recent (and distant) past put a cloud of doubt and distrust over that claim. It can’t be pointed out enough that Shaughnessy used a Red Sox owner (Werner) to get his daughter a Hollywood internship. You don’t think he “owes” them big time? And don’t email me, Dan.

CHB, Mr. Irrelevant.

* The Yankees have expressed interest in Rafael Furcal and would play him in centerfield if he were to sign.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman asked one of Furcal’s representatives if Furcal would be willing to play center. Furcal, 28, likely will rule nothing out at this early stage of free agency — he routinely shags fly balls with Braves teammate Andruw Jones and jokes about replacing him in center. He not only is athletic enough to play the position, but also could bat leadoff for the Yankees, forming a dynamic 1-2 combination with Derek Jeter.

So Alex Rodriguez at 3rd, Rafael Furcal in centerfield. Maybe Ozzie Smith can play right and Mark Belanger can catch too while Derek Jeter can still hold down shortstop.

* A good summation by Edes here regarding the Sox GM situation. Reports of Theo mulling a return, or even of the Sox wanting him back, appear to be premature. So it’s onward and upward with…Jim Bowden? Yep, that’s about what we’re looking at (Dayton Moore notwithstanding) because every qualified front office executive that seems to feature the right mix of scouting and performance analysis has turned down the opportunity to interview for the job. Larry Lucchino, doing his best Baghdad Bob routine feels confident that everything will be fine.

You know, John [Henry, the principal owner], Tom, and I are optimistic about the future of the club. We have outstanding people filling roles throughout the organization. There’s every reason to look forward to exciting times ahead, and I predict successful seasons.”

Hey, just hire from within and you might be right.

* My thoughts on a potential Manny trade. For the right price, it makes sense. If they want to trade Ramirez simply because Larry’s sick of signing his $900,000 checks every two weeks, it does not make sense. If some of this talk of Lastings Milledge, Mike Cameron and Aaron Heilman has any truth to it, I think the Sox would be crazy not to listen. That said, Manny is too productive to dump simply because he is expensive. There just aren’t players out there that will be able to replicate his production.

* Rich and Bryan did a whale of a job getting folks ready for the hot-stove season. If you want to be informed with respect to who is both available and desirable, you’ll want to have a look at their three-part free agent rankings.

Part 1

Konerko is already at or near the far end of the defensive spectrum and, as a 1B, has nowhere to go other than to become a DH. Smart teams don’t overpay for 1B/DH, especially those who will be 30 years old on Opening Day. Konerko already has the skill-set of an older player (a first baseman with strong power and little or no speed) and one has to wonder how well he will age.

Listening, Sox brass?

Part 2
Part 3

At what point does an award like this lose its allure, stature and prestige? At what point is every last iota of credibility sapped from the BBWAA? Consider the following leaders in the pitching statistics most indicative of a pitcher’s quality for 2005 in the American League…

Adjusted ERA+
1. Johan Santana - 153
2. Kevin Millwood - 143
3. Mark Buehrle - 143
4. Jarrod Washburn - 131
5. Kenny Rogers - 130

Strikeouts
1. Johan Santana - 238
2. Randy Johnson - 211
3. John Lackey - 199
4. Scott Kazmir - 174
5. Barry Zito - 171

WHIP
1. Johan Santan - 0.971
2. Randy Johnson - 1.126
3. Bartolo Colon - 1.159
4. Jon Garland - 1.172
5. Carlos Silva - 1.173

VORP
1. Johan Santana - 73.1
2. Mark Buehrle - 54.2
3. Roy Halladay - 52.7
4. Kevin Millwood - 52.3
5. Bartolo Colon - 51.1

So naturally, Bartolo Colon was voted the winner. Wanna know why? Yep, you guessed it. Because the Cy Young award is simply the award given out to the pitcher whose team performs the best on days he pitches, and not the best pitcher at all. Incidentally, check out 2005’s Wins leaders…

1. Bartolo Colon - 21
2. Cliff Lee - 18
3. Jon Garland - 18
4. Randy Johnson - 17
5. Mark Buehrle - 16
Johan Santana - 16
Tim Wakefield - 16

If the Cy Young were given out to the best pitcher, it would have been Santana winning the thing in a runaway and not Colon. To his credit, Jayson Stark sees the sham for what it is (Jayson’s come a long way since his Shannon Stewart for MVP days, no?).

If you are a mainstream columnist and a BBWAA member who happens to stumble over here and read this, and you voted for Colon or Rivera over Santana, know that you’re ignorant.