I used to buy those things once a month, and got legitimately angry when my Jody Reed card fell to the level of common. Now the Red Sox seem to have the real article.

Let’s assume for a second that the trade goes off without a hitch. Tada! You have won a shiny 25-year-old chock-full-o-potential World Series MVP, and a dude that seemed to forget how to get his hit on. All it cost the Sox was PTBNL (apparently a pitcher who isn’t on the 40…your guess is as good as mine.) Oh, and the 2005 Postseason #3 and #9 prospects in the Eastern League.

First what the Sox get.

Josh Beckett is a 25 year old right handed pitcher that, for reasons only know to His Cruel Master Satan, has never been able to throw 200 innings in a year. Of the 11 times he has found him self on the disabled list since 2001, nine of them have been a result of a blister on his right hand. Other than that, the gentleman has pretty much been all hype, and not much return over the 162, just because of his inability to stay healthy.

Earlier this year, I wondered out loud to the world if Beckett was going to be one of those guys that never lived up to his potential. Be it through his struggles with immaturity (he frequently lashes out at umpires and that fun stuff, which if he were black would earn him a colorful nickname from the dudes that cover Los Sox. Jurassic Josh maybe?) or the fact he can’t seem to throw his explosive fastball without having moisture deposit itself between the dermis and the epidermis (Science!).

Of course, if he stays healthy, and he’s missed less time this year, than he’s got the to be the most dominant starting pitcher for the Red Sox in a long time (not counting the two Cooperstown-bound men that are currently pitching for the Astros and Mets.)

The other player coming to Boston is Mike Lowell, who has a troubling trend of collapsing faster than [insert celebrity's name]‘s [noun]. I’d go with Nicole Ritchie’s weight, but you can do whatever you want there.

Since his breakout 2003, he has done thusly:
2003: 276/350/530
2004: 293/365/505
2005: 236/298/360

Now, players don’t usually just bottom out like that, especially after statistically insignificantly different years, but at age 32, Lowell can’t expected to post a 360 on base or a 500 slug anymore. Basically, what his 18 million over the next two years will get you is a lot of grousing over the lack of production that the Red Sox were used to getting out of Bill Mueller or Kevin Millar.

On the minus side of the ledger…

Hanley Ramirez and Anibel Sanchez heading to South Florida after one’s second bad year of three, and the other after his breakout year.

This brings us to a philosophical point. What is the value of a prospect? It’s a pretty safe assumption that prospect has a pretty low chance of panning out. Even for the studs, like Hanley. They are most valuable in being chits for trade with a team like Boston, who is always contending. Hanley Ramirez’s entire worth to the Red Sox right now is as someone whose potential is good enough for a team to surrender a player who has actually rendered tangible results. Same with Sanchez, and the PTBNL. The Red Sox in essence are paying for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell with Ramirez, Later, and Sanchez’s futures. This is true for all fire-sales…the perceived value of the prospect is worth the major leaguer heading in the other direction.

My estimation that Hanley Ramirez can turn into Edgar Renteria, and Anibel Sanchez could turn into Javier Vazquez. It’s just as likely they turn into Alex Gonzalez (the ex-Cub) and Joel Piniero. Or they might become nothing.

There are limits to equity trading using your farm. Players of dubious value aren’t worth much, never mind Jeff Bagewell…but given what we know about baseball crystal balling, why wouldn’t you do a Mike Boddicker for a spare OF and a thick bodied pitcher trade if it will push you to the playoffs?

The Red Sox has one guy now that truly makes them better, that’s Josh Beckett…as long as he can stay healthy. The real cost is paying for a corpse, and hoping that the Marlins misfire in the throwing of these three particular darts.

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