Without a doubt, the Toronto Blue Jays overpaid to attract BJ Ryan north of the border. Five years and $47 million is a lot of years and a lot of dough for Ryan, who really only has two dominant seasons to his credit (though his stuff has stood out his whole career). I am of the belief that the 29 year-old Ryan is a true stud, worthy of the sort of money that top-flight relievers are getting. Mariano Rivera will make $10.5 million for his 36-year old season. Billy Wagner is reportedly mulling an offer of 4 years, $40 million for his 34-37 year seasons. Jason Isringhausen pulls down $8.5 million per year.

One of the more popular performance analysis mantras is the notion that relievers are fungible, and that live arms are always freely available. There is considerable truth to this, but I think you gotta go all out when a relief ace with a demonstrable track record that figures to project is available. You can fill around your bullpen ace with the aforementioned “live arms”, and Toronto will do just that with guys like Jason Frasor, Justin Speier and Vinnie Chulk. For all intents and purposes, the Blue Jays have lopped off the final third of the game. There just won’t be much scoring against this bullpen.

So the overpayment story you hear may be true but it just won’t be all that debilitating for Toronto.

Update: A similar thesis with more detail over at the great Blue Jays blog The Batters Box.