In case you don’t read Cardnilly, the best Cardinals blog on the web, I thought I would link to what really is a great description of bias, and in particular what bias is all about when it comes to writing about sports. In short, bias is natural, human and perfectly fine. It’s just that writing that aims to be objective should contain the necessary caveat that the writer may have some biases of his own.

For instance, I don’t want to believe that Roberto Petagine’s glove is so bad that the Sox couldn’t put him at first base and help the team. But maybe it is? Anyway, here’s an excerpt…

Bias in and of itself isn’t all that big a deal — it’s always going to be there, and it’s silly to pretend that anyone’s objective about sports in particular. The trick is to recognize where those biases exist, and try to counteract them, or just own up to them and let the reader decide how much weight to give the opinion/analysis/meandering rant.

The piece goes on to identify where some of the writer’s biases exist. It’s just a great read.

Really, really well done, Scott.

- Do you think it was wise of the Red Sox to non-tender Chad Bradford? Yes he struggled against lefties at times, but we are talking about a guy with a 129 career ERA+ who was coming off of an injury last season, and given the Sox bullpen woes last year, stockpiling as many capable arms as possible in the pen would have seemed to me a better course of action. I think the Mets took a nice little flyer on the guy.

- Here’s a little John Flaherty trivia that Jeff brought up over beers with Mullet and me Tuesday night. Flaherty was prominently involved in two of the most memorable Red Sox regular season games of the last ten years. Do you remember the games and how Flaherty was involved?

I’ve got a slightly different perspective on this off-season than does Sully. Let me start by saying that it’s not even 2006 yet, and there’s a long time to go before the roster is finalized, and I’m in no way saying that the Red Sox are doomed …. DOOMED.

However, I am saying that, just as I believed last season, there’s a battle going on in the front office. It’s not just the oft cited and discussed Epstein/Lucchino differences, but a seeming complete strategic overhaul of the short- and long-term plans of the Boston Red Sox. There’s, as much as one can discern from inferences and biased newspaper reporting, a definitive plan to get younger and less dramatic, while simultaneously staying competitive. I certainly don’t disagree with this plan (well, the get younger part, at least). And I fully believe that a team with the second largest payroll in baseball should be able to rebuild and stay competitive.

I’m just not sure the Red Sox are going about things in the best way.

Let’s start with the 2005 regular season and the initial move away from near-strict performance analysis into a more nuanced (and less proven) clubhouse chemistry roster construction. Sticking with older players when younger counterparts were ready to offer up similar or better performance was the initial indicator that things were a-changing. Sticking with Millar and Embree, and bringing in Kapler, when we had cheap minor league resources available was the first sign that the Sox valued the clubhouse contributions of those players over the moderate improvement younger players might have brought. You can actually go back a little ways and look at the Pedro Martinez/Jason Varitek free agency negotiations to see that the Sox were taking a firm stand and saying “we can build a team of people who don’t flap their jaws or expect a separate set of rules for themselves,” even arguably overpaying a catcher who they claimed brought so much more than just his on the field performance.

Cut to the 2005 offseason. The Sox make a big acquisition of Josh Beckett (and Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota), giving up a couple of highly touted prospects. It’s certainly a good deal, acquiring a young, really good pitcher for a pitcher who may never even hit the ceiling of what Beckett has accomplished to this point. Mota’s a throw-in, another arm for the bullpen to churn through to see if he’s got anything left. The problem, of course, is Mike Lowell.

Lowell looked done last year. Cooked. He’s been recovering from a pretty devastating illness, and the likelihood of him bouncing back and being better than league average is probably pretty small. Lowell, in essence, was the acquisition cost of Josh Beckett. And that’s where this deal starts to get a little less pretty.

See, the Sox already have a 3rd baseman who’s cheap and likely to give us a little better than league average performance (Youkilis). And they offered arbitration to 2 other players who would see time at 3B, if they accept (Mueller, Graffanino). Lowell just adds to the logjam at the position, moving Youkilis to 1B, and basically meaning that the cheap, young Josh Beckett is going to be costing the team about $11mm in each of the next 2 seasons. That’s not so cheap.

Still, Beckett is Schilling insurance, and was a solid pickup. Not a steal, but a good deal for the Sox.

Then the Sox made another deal. They traded backup catcher Doug Mirabelli to the Padres for 2B Mark Loretta. This is a steal. Mirabelli should be replaced by Kelly Shoppach, who projects to be a better hitter and catcher than good ol’ Doug. Loretta, although coming off a down, injury-ridden season, is signed fairly cheaply and is a good stop gap until Dustin Pedroia is ready to take over 2B full time. This deal is a great “keep the window open while planning for the future deal.” Now an infield of Lowell, Renteria, Loretta, Youkilis is probably about equal to what the Sox ran out last season (with Lowell playing the role of Kevin Millar), and maybe a little better defensively.

Except the Sox then traded Renteria to the Braves for Andy Marte. Marte’s a stud, no doubt, and if the Sox find a way to get a league average bat at SS, then in the long run, this will be a solid move.

But there’s just no way a team that’s trying to win the World Series should go into the season with Alex Cora or Tony Graffanino at SS. Neither has the defensive chops to play the position. Cora’s got a noodle bat, and Graf is coming off a career year. Suddenly the Sox have given back a bunch of the runs they gained when they acquired Beckett.

Still, one weak spot on a contending team isn’t awful.

Then Johnny Damon signed with the Yankees. I will state it clearly: I would not have resigned Johnny Damon for the deal the Yankees got him for. Where the Red Sox failed was giving Damon an ultimatum without having already lined up plan B.

Heading into 2006, the have no CF and no SS. Still no platoon partner for Trot in RF. The already thin free agent market is getting thinner, and now every team in baseball knows the Sox are desparate for a SS and CF. Why would Bill Bavasi trade Jeremy Reed for Bronson Arroyo when he could trade him for Bronson Arroyo and Jeff Corsaletti? Why would Friedman/Hunsicker deal Julio Lugo to the Sox for Matt Clement when they know they can get Clement and Shoppach?

Each move the Sox have made this off-season has looked very good in a vaccuum. If you evaluate just the individual deal, the Sox look brilliant. But when you step back … take a broader look, things aren’t as pretty. The Sox have backed themselves into a corner (further evidenced by the futile attempt to acquire Kevin Millwood). Other teams around baseball know that we don’t want to go into the season with George Lombard or David Murphy in CF and Alex Cora at SS, and they’re going to make the Sox pay to remedy that.

Is this indicative of a failure of the front office? Maybe. Is the 2-headed GM working in concert, or are they pulling in different directions? Is Larry Lucchino’s desire to rid the team of any one who talks out of turn and isn’t a professional overriding the baseball operations group? Have the Sox gone so far in their thinking that they believe that they know the market better than the market?

Who knows. What we do know is, that heading into 2006, the Sox have a stronger pitching staff, top to bottom than they did in 2005. They’ve got a weaker offense, top to bottom, than they did in 2005.

There’s a long way to go until April, so this isn’t a death knell. It’s not even a “woe is me.” It’s simply a notice that the Sox haven’t had a successful or unsuccessful offseason. They’ve had an incomplete offseason. As much as some want to give the GMs all ‘As’ for acquiring Marte and Beckett, and some want to give them all ‘Fs’ for letting Damon and Mueller walk.

They get neither. They get an INC and a kick in the ass to start figuring out how to turn our collection of league average starting pitching and infielders into a bonafide major league SS and CF.

My apologies for a long and rambling post.

According to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Kevin Millwood has signed with Texas for 5 years/$60 million, with the fifth year voidable if Millwood’s maddening habit of missing small to large amounts of innings continues (see 2001, 2004-2005). Millwood, who was perused by the Red Sox if the reports were true, will be 35 if the full contract comes to term.

Sixty million dollars is a hell of a lot of scratch for someone like Millwood. On it’s face, you have a guy who floats within the margin (the completely arbitrary number I just made up of +/- 5%) of completely average, at least for an American League starter at least if you tossing out some years, such as his sublime 1997, his great 2005, and his crappy 2004. Normally I hate doing that, but Millwood is particularly maddening pitcher to that end…he tantalizes with two years of greatness, and usually just notches as a second-banana at best. I don’t think it’s a far stretch to be able to say that Millwood is a very slightly above average pitcher capable of greatness, with a side of suck. Therefore, let’s just accept that point.

The point of this column isn’t to put Kevin Millwood into peer context, or historical context, or really any other context. No, Kevin Millwood simply represents a economic truth that has settled on baseball in this, the hyper-free agent era. Since Moneyball annoyed the sensibilities of baseball men, it’s much more common for the Internet-dwelling baseball fan to see baseball players for what they really are…assets for the baseball team to both win games and assify the seats. The best way to get people into the seats is to be a competitive baseball team (just as the Mariners…the World Series is just a happy eventual coincidence of adding another beer garden in center field. As an aside, I can’t wait to go to Safeco in July.) Players, as long reported by anyone who will listen, be the medium newspaper, TV, or barstool, want money also. Their interest in winning will make the level of cash they will accept float between the minimum acceptable and the most an owner will pay him.

This sets up a problem for the mediocre franchise. Teams like Detroit, Texas, Arizona (ok, average to awful have this problem) need to win to be able to be viable teams. If they don’t at least show the effort of being competitive, they need to be able to build a top-down franchise that Minnesota has been successful with, and Pittsburgh has Zach Duke and a decade of tumbleweeds. Because of the difficulty of prospecting, jumping the gap between “unexciting” and “competitive” is tough without doing things like overpaying for people to call your fair city home. Frequently, these teams actually take a larger risk, selecting players that have obvious warts and paying them above market in order to build some fan base/winning momentum into the future.

Case in point. Troy Glaus didn’t have a suitor willing to give him a long-term contract because there is always the possibility that he might actually fall apart on the field. In comes Arizona, coming off a successful history followed by an 111 loss year. A signature, four years and $45 million later, Glaus is a DBack. Detroit took Magglio Ordonez on for five years and $75 million despite the fact he can’t actually walk anymore. The Blue Jays, trying to keep up with the Red Sox and Yankees, overpaid for both BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett, adding both more money and years stealing them from the clutches of two have’s…the Cardinals and Yankees. Toronto, Arizona, and Detroit were party to the Glaus Complex…desperation tying into money and overpaying for good players that can really help them out despite warts.

What I’m saying is that some teams, until they build a reputation as a team that will consistently contend need to pay top+1 dollar to get high-ceiling (and in the case of Ordonez, Glaus, and Burnett very high injury risk, or with Ryan, reliever volatility risk) free agents.

Now, here is Texas. The Rangers, despite having one of the strongest pitching staffs in the AL in 2004 (in terms of results), has had a full decade where their pitching has been pretty awful. The reasoning behind this is almost completely geographical. You are in an environment begging baseballs to fly out of your ballpark (high heat and all) and a ballpark that is accommodating to that end. It’s Coors Field South, that wacky Ballpark in Arlington. So the Rangers have two strikes against them when it comes to attracting hurlers to their confines…they aren’t very good (on offense, only Michael Young and Mark Teixeira rank among the best at their positions) and their ballpark kills pitching statistics, which of course, costs players money in the future.

Enough background, I say. We’ll play in hypothetical right now. Texas decides that Millwood is a $9 million a year pitcher, and although he is an injury risk, they have no problem giving him a three year contract with an option for a fourth. Now, Texas is perusing him because they desperately need pitching, since their potential staff next year is injury-risks from trades Vicente Padilla, and Adam Eaton, good-looking youngsters Kameron Loe, and Juan Dominiguez, and the guy that worked the day shift in the canteen of the Oklahoma-to-Texas pitcher shuttle. Or even worse…John Wasdin. Millwood isn’t enamored by this offer but whatever no one else is calling. Here comes Boston, with their deep pockets, and sexy co-GM’s whispering things like “Hey, we’ll give you a 4th year guaranteed.” or “Screw that Texas heat, come pitch in Boston where it’s sub-arctic for a month and if you make contact with a pitch before Memorial Day, you might break a finger.” Or even worse for the mediocre ballclub “Whatever Texas offers you, we’ll give you a few million more.”

Young, and equally as sexy (see, we’re giving more time to non-Boston teams up in here) Rangers GM Jon Daniels panics. “Screw Boston,” says Daniels. “We’ll give you 5 years, at $12 million a year. Just give us a one year out if your arm actually does disintegrate in the next four years.” Such is the life of a mid-major baseball team.

Kevin Millwood at $12 million a year for a team like Boston is death, because it’s expensive and long. With guys like Schilling, Beckett, and Wells having health issues, Arroyo/Clement having goodness issues, and Wakefield having knuckleball issues, it’s too much to expect to have your 2nd highest paid starter be an average pitcher (I would say around Wakefield level) also have injury issues. For a team like Texas, they are going to a loan shark to try and save the family restaurant. The vig might kill them, but dammit, they have good scallops and a decent wine list. The people will come, Ray, oh yes. The people will come.

Kevin Millwood would be death for Boston. But the Rangers are gambling $60 million is the very thing they need.

If you want to know about Boston Sports Media, and in particular their coverage of the Red Sox, take some headache medicine and read through some of the Boston papers over the last four or five days. The best example I have seen to date that shows the negativity, narrow-mindedness and just general obtuseness that Boston writers have applied to the Johnny Damon departure was a piece the Globe ran yesterday called “Quick Shots”. A number of the Globe’s writers contributed paragraphs regarding how badly Damon’s loss will hurt the Sox. We get this nugget from Nick Cafardo…

The Sox will also miss Damon’s clubhouse presence. For four seasons, it was Damon’s clubhouse. He was also the go-to guy for the media, commenting on easy and tough questions in good times and bad. He changed the culture in the Sox’ clubhouse for the better. How do they replace him? Anything short of Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones, and you don’t.

…And this from former talent Bob Ryan…

Casey Stengel explained why his first pick for the expansion 1962 Mets was catcher Hobie Landrith: ‘’If you have no catcher, there will be a lot of passed balls.” If the Red Sox were to play this afternoon, there would be a lot of base hits to center field for the same reason. Fact is, they ain’t got none. Ain’t got no (legitimate) leadoff hitter, either. For these and other reasons Johnny Damon was a must keep.

You get the drift. Now, I don’t want people to get the feeling that I don’t think Johnny Damon’s loss will hurt the Sox. It will. But as a baseball team, all you need to be is good in the aggregate. Whether that is with a fantastic centerfielder and a crummy second baseman like the 2005 Red Sox, or vice versa as it appears is possible for the 2006 Sox, it doesn’t much matter. There are a bunch of different ways to assemble a good baseball team. You think pitiching wins? Ask the 2003 Dodgers if pitching alone gets it done. You think you need a lead-off man? 2005’s World Series participants featured two of the very worst lead-off men in baseball in Scott Podsednik and Willy Taveras. How about a centerfielder? Is it imperative to have a top-notch centerfielder in order to be competitive? Of course not. Again, just look at Taveras or Bernie Williams, who both logged significant time in centerfield for playoff teams or conversely, David DeJesus of the Kansas City Royals, who had a very nice season for an abominable Royals team in 2005.

The point is obvious to anybody capable of putting together a rational thought but completely lost upon professionals compensated to understand these sorts of things. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and all you need to do is put together a 25-man roster that, in the aggregate, will allow you to stay competitive. Nothing that has taken place this off-season suggests that the Red Sox do not understand this.

Hey, I am all for warm welcomes but doesn’t all of this hoopla for Johnny Damon down in New York seem to be a bit over the top? I mean, we are talking about a guy that hit .282/.343/.397 after the All-Star Break last year.

Not exactly Charles Lindbergh arriving in town after the first ever trans-Atlantic flight…

The Red Sox signed John Flaherty today. Flaherty is 38, and batted .165/.206/.252 last season for an OPS+ of…wait for it…wait for it…TWENTY!

There are probably 75 catchers making less than $50,000 per year in the Minor Leagues that would be better than Flaherty next year, but John will be able to make up to $750,000 for 2006. Nothing like being rewarded for service time. What a country.

Yes I am in California with my future in-laws. Yes I should probably be wrapping some Christmans gifts or even beginning the wedding planning process but you know what? The madness needs to end. Writers, both local and national, have declared the Red Sox a mess in some form or another. The tipping point for these types came Tuesday night when the Red Sox opted not to grant Johnny Damon the same contract Pedro Martinez received last off-season.

Here’s Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports in an article entitled Red Sox’s 2006 season is crumbling:

Time for a new curse. Time to organize a search party for former GM Theo Epstein. Time to panic, as only New England can.

How about Bob Klapisch on espn.com?

Without Damon in 2005, the Bombers finished second to Boston in runs, batting average and on-base percentage. That gap will almost certainly be closed in 2006, unless the Sox can salvage a disastrous offseason.

And finally, everybody’s favorite no-talent hack, the Curly Haired Boyfriend himself.

This signing will polarize the Nation. Most fans will paint the current Sox bosses as buffoons and there’s good evidence to support the charge.

Imagine that, sportswriters pressing the panic button because the Sox lost some guys they had heard of? Well let’s take a step back here, analyze what the Sox have and what they lost and really try and determine if it is time to panic over 2006 yet. I don’t think anybody would argue that with Schilling and Foulke coming back, Beckett and Papelbon in the mix and Guillermo Mota, Rudy Seanez and a more polished Craig Hansen in the bulpen that the Sox will be able to shave a good amount of runs off of that brutal total of 805 that they allowed in 2005. But let’s look at the offense, position by position, to compare last year’s club with what might be expected this season based on Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projection method. I will list what the Red Sox got from that particular position in 2005, folowed by projections for likely candidate(s) to fill the position in 2006.

Catcher
2005 Sox: .262/.346/.458
Jason Varitek: .274/.361/.473
Kelly Shoppach: .233/.312/.436 (Doug Mirabelli had a .673 OPS last year)

First Base
2005 Sox: .279/.358/.436
Kevin Youkilis: .268/.400/.417
Roberto Petagine (fingers crossed): .270/.374/.492

Second Base
2005 Sox: .254/.333/.396
Mark Loretta: .320/.387/.441

Third Base
2005 Sox: .295/.372/.431
Mike Lowell: .283/.356/.489
Andy Marte: .255/.350/.459

Shortstop
2005 Sox: .272/.331/.377
Tony Graffanino: .287/.349/.394
Alex Cora: .269/.334/.368

Left Field
2005 Sox: .286/.377/.566
Manny Ramirez: .292/.389/.563

Centerfield
2005 Sox: .317/.367/.446
Jeremy Reed: .266/.340/.379
Coco Crisp: .303/.353/.448
Adam Stern: .260/.320/.392
David Murphy: .246/.298/.361

Rightfield
2005 Sox: .274/.341/.431
Trot Nixon: .294/.381/.499
Adam Hyzdu: .242/.355/.457 (There’s your 4th OF, front office. All he needs is someone to hand him 200 AB’s and he’ll be fine)

Designated Hitter
2005 Sox: .295/.396/.595
David Ortiz: .298/.392/.595

So there you have it. Barring the acquisition of Cleveland’s Coco Crisp, the Sox do appear as though they are in for a precipitous decline in centerfield. But isn’t that really it? Catcher looks to be about the same, 1st Base should see a small improvement and so should right field with some bounce-back from Trot. And besides, Mark Loretta’s presence alone may provide more than enough upgrade to negate Damon’s absence. This offense will still pound the ball and with improvement all but a guarantee on the pitching side of things, I think the Sox are still in very good shape heading into 2006.

Edit: Adam Hyzdu signed a minor league deal with the Rangers a few weeks back. Two thoughts on that; one, I am a moron for not picking up on it. Two, given the projection, the Sox may have been well-served to hang onto the guy.

Three very different feelings this morning:

First and foremost, thank you Johnny Damon. He was mostly good, at times great but more than anything, his legacy will be this:

As a sports fan, Damon’s Game 7 Grand Slam was the single greatest high I have ever experienced. I was never a huge fan of the Idiot act but Damon always played his ass off so it never bothered me. He got on base well, hit with a little pop and though his range appears to have declined, he played a whale of a centerfield for the most part during his stint here. He gave the Boston Red Sox and its fans four good, hard years and again, the memory of a lifetime that still sends chills up my spine.

Now, with that said, thank the Good Lord we didn’t sign this deal. Warning signs for Damon abound. For starters, he’s 32. The Yankees have committed $52 million for Damon’s 32-35 seasons. Remember, he’s a centerfielder who derives much of his value from his ability to cover ground like a gazelle in centerfield. He does not have Jim Edmonds’ power, a characteristic more likely to stick with an aging player. There are also performance issues at the plate with Damon. On the road from 2002-2004, he hit an unspectacular .278/.340/.433. In 2005, he hit .298/.342/.438. In his last two seasons, two of his three best as a pro, he has seen his numbers greatly inflated by a high batting average at Fenway Park. A lifetime .290 hitter, he batted .334 at Fenway in 2005 and .330 in 2004. I heard Johnny Damon speaking on Boston’s local CBS affiliate last night and he mentioned that the Sox “just didn’t step up.” Well in this particular instance, I have to say I am glad they didn’t.

Finally, making prudent decisions is all well and good but you do of course need a centerfielder, and at this particular moment in time, the Sox find themselves backed into quite a corner. In the outfield the Red Sox have an all-world slugger that wants out, no centerfielder and a rightfielder unlikely to log more than 500 plate appearances who needs a platoon partner when he is healthy anyway. In other words, the Sox need to get to work. Compounding the problem is that other executives will doubtless be able to smell blood. Desperation has never helped anybody, at any time, at any bargaining table. Coco Crisp is an enticing option but I can’t imagine that a savvy General Manager like Mark Shapiro is eager to part with him without a healthy haul in return. Jeremy Reed could look good in a Sox uniform if he’s your thing but you’d really be putting a lot of faith in his development if you were to deal for a kid like that. Yes he raked at Long Beach State (largely as a 1st Baseman mind you), yes he raked in the Minors, but what the hell do you make of a .254/.322/.352 rookie season in which advanced defensive metrics showed him to be above average at best in centerfield? 2005 had better be a mere hiccup if Reed’s going to be the guy. I have said it before and I will say it again. I’m pounding the table on Jason Michaels of the Philadelphia Phillies. Michaels hit .304/.399/.415 in 2005 and though not of a prototypical centerfielder’s build, there is little evidence that he can’t do a good job out there. Further, with Philadelphia’s desperate need for starting pitching, the Red Sox surplus of starters and Philadelphia GM Pat Gillick’s earlier acquisition of Aaron Rowand, it would seem to me that a deal could work.

Off to the West Coast tonight, folks. Take care of yourselves and hug loved ones. People like hugs.

Just wanted to offer up a hat-tip to our resident tech-guru, Mullet. I think the banner looks pretty good up there, picture of a young Dewey and all.

I will be writing sporadically in the coming days. I proposed to my girlfriend Johanna of 5 years on Friday, the 9th of December. She obliged, and now we are heading to her hometown of Long Beach, California for Engagement celebrations and holiday cheer.

I am the luckiest guy in the world in that I will be wed to a woman more loving and supportive than a guy could ever hope for. And you know what else? She’s a baseball fan too.

Happy Holidays everybody.

Behold! The 2005 Chicago White Sox!

As you see, this team is pretty much a garden variety “Secondary market team” payroll wise. You have a few high priced players, a bunch of young guys, and a few vets on short contracts/money.

Now, enter the Wu…

The italics signify estimated arb awards.

Part of the issue with anything but the big market teams winning the World Series is that the younger guys will get big bumps in their arb awards, due to the “winning the World Series” thing.

However, we are looking at a $30 million bump in actual payouts to players from one year to the other. It’s unlikely the White Sox would win 99 games again, due to a few guys having very good years, and the oddity of them winning 99 games in the first place*. Even if you assume that Thome and Vazquez perform to their talent level, the White Sox wouldn’t be expected to put together a 110 win season. They basically added $30 million to tread water.

Now, the White Sox will probably still win the Central, due to the Twins running in circles, the Indians having some holes unfilled, and the Lions and Chiefs playing football. A 2nd consecutive Central title will probably cover the $30 million more in revenue, meaning the only thing that is really affected is Jerry Reinsdorf’s profit margin.

Still, jumping from $73 million in payouts to $100 million is a 36% nudge in salary, which I am willing to bet is pretty historic (save the New York teams). The White Sox are making a gamble on the weakness of their opponents as much as their own strengths.

*Jumping 16 wins while really only adding Podsednik, Dye, and AJP seems a bit much, given conventional weaponry, no?

Note: Neil Brenner and Ryan Toohil gave a hand with this thing. Blame them for the mistakes.

If you can see this, then you know we’re back up and running. Took a little bit longer than expected, but the new and improved site should make things a whole lot easier on me, which means things will be easier for you too.

Comments are open. URLs should be a bit easier to remember now (everything is off of the deweyshouse.com domain). If you subscribed to our RSS feed, you’ll need to update it.

It also means I’ll spend less time working on tech stuff and more time giving you my wonderful thoughts on baseball. For instance, why I think Sully is slightly wrong about the Beckett and Marte deals.

While I have been adamant in my belief that the outfield presents the most pressing concerns for the Red Sox, an interesting signing took place today that could give the Red Sox (and other teams) a chance to score some nice talent on the cheap. Nomar Garciaparra was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday, and they plan on using him at 1st Base. With Rafael Furcal already having been signed earlier this off-season by LA, it would seem to me that Cesar Izturis and Hee Seop Choi could very well be had at considerable discounts. While the Red Sox do not have dire needs at shortstop or 1st, both of these players would represent nice little upgrades at both positions. I think it’s worth a look.

Twice in the last week I have read unfavorable remarks concerning the Edgar Renteria for Andy Marte trade. Granted they came from two writers that tend to mail it in but still, I wanted to do my part to help people understand just how fantastic this trade was. Here is what Tony Mazz had to say last Sunday in the Boston Herald.

In the span of two weeks, both the shortstop of the future (Hanley Ramirez) and the shortstop of the present (Edgar Renteria) were traded, which makes no sense at all.

Jim Donaldson of the Providence Journal had this to say on Tuesday.

In a glaring indication of just how poorly the Sox currently are being run, they had to agree to pay the Atlanta Braves as much as perhaps $11 million over the next three years to get them to take Renteria off their hands, in exchange for a promising, but still unproven, prospect in Andy Marte.

In Edgar Renteria, the Red Sox had one of their worst shortstops in recent memory. Mike Lansing is the only guy that comes to mind who was even close to as bad as Edgar. He couldn’t cover any ground and his hands weren’t particularly good. At the plate, he was a real disappointment, coming nowhere close to his 2003 MVP-type levels or even his adequate 2004 numbers. Free agent flops don’t get any bigger than this. So the Red Sox were able to rid themselves of the problem and yes, they sent some money along in order to do so, but what they were able to get in return is not a good prospect, but a remarkable one. Baseball Prospectus thinks Andy Marte is the very best prospect in baseball, or at least they did last Winter when BP2K5 went to press. Here’s Marte’s snippet from the book:

The best prospect in baseball and a future superstar. As a 20-year-old toiling in the mostly hitter-unfriendly Southern Leage, Marte hit .269/.364/.525. In only 387 at-bats, he smacked 52 extra-base hits. He’s got monstrous power and a broad base of hitting skills. In his prime, expect a few seasons of Adrian Beltre, circa 2004.

Though he struggled in a late season stint with Atlanta, Marte hit .275/.372/.506 with AAA Richmond. Here’s what Baseball America had to say on Marte just after the deal was announced (BA ranked Marte 9th on their Top-100 prospects list last year).

Marte’s swing has a natural uppercut that generates plenty of loft power, and the ball jumps off his bat. He can hit with power to all fields and has improved his walk rate as he has gained experience. He was rated the best defensive third baseman in the Triple-A International League in 2005, the fourth consecutive year he won such an honor in his league in Baseball America’s annual survey of minor league managers.

The Edgar Renteria signing was a terrible mistake. Getting out from under that mistake was nice. Netting one of baseball’s very best prospects in the process was a masterstroke. The Red Sox will enjoy 6 cost-controlled seasons of one of the most promising prospects in baseball. It was a tremendous deal.

Kudos to the Boston Red Sox for naming Ben Cherington and Jed Hoyer co-General Managers. Ben knows about all there is to know about Player Development and how to run an organization up to the Major Leagues. And that’s where Jed will come in. Hoyer has an impressive grasp of Major League talent and understands the balance between scouting and performance analysis that needs to enter into any personnel decision. If, like Mazz, you were for some reason or another concerned about how the Red Sox were operating despite two A+ trades (Loretta and Marte) and another solid one (Beckett and Lowell), you can relax. Yesterday the Red Sox were in good hands, only unofficially so. Today they wisely bypassed Jim Beattie, Jim Bowden and others and made it official. The guys pulling off the shiny trades were handed titles befitting of their work. Congrats to Jed and Ben.

A snapshot of Red Sox position players and a reminder that there is a ways to go here…

C: Varitek / Shoppach
1B: Youkilis
2B: Loretta / Pedroia
3B: Lowell / Marte
SS: Cora
LF: Ramirez
CF:
RF: Nixon
DH: Ortiz

The Red Sox have done a great job this off-season of making the right deals. When Mark Loretta comes available for your backup catcher, you don’t walk, you run to go and sign off on that thing. Same goes for when another GM wants to offer up one of baseball’s very best prospects for the biggest problem facing your team (an expensive, declining SS). But neither of these deals did a ton to address needs. The Red Sox are doing a nice job of stockpiling talent but they still need a shortstop and a centerfielder at this point. Trading Manny for Miguel Tejada would result in another incremental talent boost but the hole will have simply shifted from short to left. Even if Manny hangs around and Damon is retained, a good 4th outfielder - and not Gabe Kapler warm and fuzzy intangibles good - like a real 4th outfielder will be in order. The outfield has to be the focus for Boston right now. Save a real thumper at first, the infield has come together, and though it may be a tad chaotic, Terry Francona has plenty of talent to assemble a good infield. This isn’t to say you turn your back on a Tejada deal - of course not, let’s hope it happens - but the Sox really need to be focusing on what in the hell they will do with the outfield for 2006. There isn’t much more talent available on the open market, and so creativity will be in order.

- Mirabelli for Loretta

- Renteria for Marte

- As soon as we have confirmation on the rumored Timlin-for-K-Rod and Trot-for-Miggy Cabrera deals, we will update.

Man, how sweet is this?

For anybody wanting a quick primer on Thursday’s Rule Five Draft, Bryan Smith’s preview over at Baseball Analysts is a must-read.

Go and check it out and decide for yourselves if the Sox should be active come Thursday or not.

The annual two-team dogfight to which fans of the American League East have grown so accustomed is no longer. Jays fans will hope against hope no longer. Make no mistake, the Toronto Blue Jays now have a formidable enough club to challenge the Red Sox and Yankees for AL East supremacy in 2006. Snakebit by the one-run loss bug in 2005, the Jays badly under-performed their Pythagorean record. According to their run-differential, their play in 2005 suggested they were more like a 88-win ball-club. The Jays have added A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan to a pitching staff that yielded just 705 total runs in 2005, an already impressively low total given their division (one of the heaviest hitting in baseball) and home ballpark (the Rogers Centre slightly favors hitters). Between the additional 80-to-100 innings Roy Halladay ought to provide and the two pricey additions, the Jays are a good bet to give up 650 runs or fewer. So if their hitting stays the same and they chop off 55 runs, where does that put them? According to Pythag, the Jays, today, appear to be a 95-win team. You can haggle with some of the logic. Burnett and Halladay carry injury risk. Despite an impressive rookie season, Gustavo Chacin's peripherals leave quite a bit to be desired. Will the supporting bullpen cast of Vinnie Chulk, Scott Schoenweis, Justin Speier and Jason Frasor be able to replicate their impressive 2005 seasons? Should we really place so much stock in Pythag? These are all legitimate concerns, but there are also other, offsetting considerations as well. Ted Lilly is a good bet to pitch both more, and better. Dustin McGowan and Scott Downs are likely to pitch less, and this is a good thing. Also, with these additions and an increased workload from Halladay, the Jays can either systematically demote, or trade if they happen to possess value, guys that pitched a number of ineffective innings (like Brandon League). Here is what figures to be the Jays pitching staff in 2006, with 2005 ERA+ listed followed by career ERA+:

SP: Roy Halladay (184, 127)
SP: A.J. Burnett (117, 110)
SP: Ted Lilly (80, 97)
SP: Gustavo Chacin (119, 123)
SP: Josh Towers (120, 100)

RP: Jason Frasor (137, 127)
RP: Vinnie Chulk (115, 109)
RP: Justin Speier (173, 115)
Loogy: Scott Schoenweis (134, 94)
Relief Ace: B.J. Ryan (170, 126)
Long-man: Dustin Mcgowan / Shaun Marcum (n/a)

That, folks, is one hell of a formidable staff. Probably the American League's best.

Of course there are some notable names left off of this list, and peddling some of them for additional some hitting will be J.P. Ricciardi's next task. Miguel Batista should be available. Same goes for Brandon League, who is just 22 and has an awfully live arm. But critics, and there are plenty, should understand that this offense does not need to improve by all that much in order for the Blue Jays to be AL East favorites, much less contenders. Replace Alex Rios with Kevin Mench and all of a sudden you have a productive corner outfielder instead of a gaping hole in the offense. Trade for Lyle Overbay, slide Aaron Hill to 3rd Base, move Corie Koskie (Koskie's should be a lot better this year) to DH and all of a sudden you have improved both your offense and defense. With some combination of Shea Hillenbrand, Rios, League, Batista and either Lilly or Chacin, players of Mench's and Overbay's caliber should be available. Just patching up the big holes would go a long way to shoring up this offense.

Critics will point to the money spent and analyze this on a strict value basis. No, these aren't great value signings but A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan are both premium talents. J.P. had a choice with cash in hand, play ball with the big boys or endure another 80-85 win season. He chose to play ball, hope it turns into more revenue and worry about 2008 after he wins his 90-100 games in 2006. Frankly, I am not sure I wouldn’t have done the same. In his column today Joe Sheehan trotted out an old standby of his; the omniscient, crystal ball routine in which he extends to you the courtesy of allowing you to know exactly what the future has in store. You might remember this classic from his August 1, 2004 column:

"The Red Sox essentially gave their playoff spot to the Cubs."

Well about J.P.’s tactics this off-season, Sheehan has this to say today:

"It's really not a matter of whether the Devil Rays will pass the Blue Jays in the AL East, just a question of when. To look at how these two franchises, each caught in a difficult competitive environment, have chosen to tackle the problem, is to see the difference between the game's past and its present, between money as a panacea and money as a tool.

Between getting it and not."

Theo got his laugh out of Sheehan, and something tells me around October of this year, Ricciardi will have his.

But hey, Joe gets it. Which is nice.

Each of these guys have had their names floated about as potential Hot Stove acquisitions for the Sox. Whether the sources were credible or not is an altogether different story. Without further ado…

Alfonso Soriano (.268/.309/.512 in 2005, .224/.265/.324 on road)

An atrocious fielder and an overrated hitter, his Big-Apple enhanced name, athleticism and tools will always outstrip his real value.

Corey Patterson (.215/.254/.348 in 2005)

Fine as a 4th outfielder I suppose, but shouldn't be counted on for much. His clueless free-swinging approach seems to have caught up with him and he is a relatively easy out for most decent pitchers.

Sean Casey (.312/.371/.423 in 2005)

Just don't. He will be 31 next season, and just doesn't hit with enough power to net out to an asset as a first-baseman, especially when you consider that he is past his peak. His contract is one of baseball's most ridiculous.

Juan Pierre (.276/.326/.354 in 2005)

A fun-loving personality and a tireless work ethic may make you a potentially qualified ambassador for the game, but a noodle arm, mediocre range, an inability to regularly reach base and a propensity to get gunned down when attempting stolen bases make you a poor choice to be Johnny Damon's successor.

Todd Jones (112 career ERA+, 37 years old)

Ugh. Homophobia and general closed-mindedness aside, Jones simply represents a case of a guy coming off one of his best seasons and looking to cash in as though it is a damn foregone conclusion that he will continue to replicate that stand-alone, stellar season - age and track record be damned. Stay far, far away.

Darin Erstad (.273/.325/.371 in 2005, OPS+ < 100 each season since 2001)

Like Pierre, "Ersty" (God I hate Rex Hudler) gets by on reputation. He's a miserable hitter and particularly so when playing first base everyday. His slick mitt counts for quite a bit and I guess his good attitude something too but that brutal bat of his easily nets Erstad out to more of a detriment than a contributor to any club's winning efforts.