Just So You Know, The Sky Is Not Falling
Yes I am in California with my future in-laws. Yes I should probably be wrapping some Christmans gifts or even beginning the wedding planning process but you know what? The madness needs to end. Writers, both local and national, have declared the Red Sox a mess in some form or another. The tipping point for these types came Tuesday night when the Red Sox opted not to grant Johnny Damon the same contract Pedro Martinez received last off-season.
Here’s Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports in an article entitled Red Sox’s 2006 season is crumbling:
Time for a new curse. Time to organize a search party for former GM Theo Epstein. Time to panic, as only New England can.
How about Bob Klapisch on espn.com?
Without Damon in 2005, the Bombers finished second to Boston in runs, batting average and on-base percentage. That gap will almost certainly be closed in 2006, unless the Sox can salvage a disastrous offseason.
And finally, everybody’s favorite no-talent hack, the Curly Haired Boyfriend himself.
This signing will polarize the Nation. Most fans will paint the current Sox bosses as buffoons and there’s good evidence to support the charge.
Imagine that, sportswriters pressing the panic button because the Sox lost some guys they had heard of? Well let’s take a step back here, analyze what the Sox have and what they lost and really try and determine if it is time to panic over 2006 yet. I don’t think anybody would argue that with Schilling and Foulke coming back, Beckett and Papelbon in the mix and Guillermo Mota, Rudy Seanez and a more polished Craig Hansen in the bulpen that the Sox will be able to shave a good amount of runs off of that brutal total of 805 that they allowed in 2005. But let’s look at the offense, position by position, to compare last year’s club with what might be expected this season based on Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projection method. I will list what the Red Sox got from that particular position in 2005, folowed by projections for likely candidate(s) to fill the position in 2006.
Catcher
2005 Sox: .262/.346/.458
Jason Varitek: .274/.361/.473
Kelly Shoppach: .233/.312/.436 (Doug Mirabelli had a .673 OPS last year)
First Base
2005 Sox: .279/.358/.436
Kevin Youkilis: .268/.400/.417
Roberto Petagine (fingers crossed): .270/.374/.492
Second Base
2005 Sox: .254/.333/.396
Mark Loretta: .320/.387/.441
Third Base
2005 Sox: .295/.372/.431
Mike Lowell: .283/.356/.489
Andy Marte: .255/.350/.459
Shortstop
2005 Sox: .272/.331/.377
Tony Graffanino: .287/.349/.394
Alex Cora: .269/.334/.368
Left Field
2005 Sox: .286/.377/.566
Manny Ramirez: .292/.389/.563
Centerfield
2005 Sox: .317/.367/.446
Jeremy Reed: .266/.340/.379
Coco Crisp: .303/.353/.448
Adam Stern: .260/.320/.392
David Murphy: .246/.298/.361
Rightfield
2005 Sox: .274/.341/.431
Trot Nixon: .294/.381/.499
Adam Hyzdu: .242/.355/.457 (There’s your 4th OF, front office. All he needs is someone to hand him 200 AB’s and he’ll be fine)
Designated Hitter
2005 Sox: .295/.396/.595
David Ortiz: .298/.392/.595
So there you have it. Barring the acquisition of Cleveland’s Coco Crisp, the Sox do appear as though they are in for a precipitous decline in centerfield. But isn’t that really it? Catcher looks to be about the same, 1st Base should see a small improvement and so should right field with some bounce-back from Trot. And besides, Mark Loretta’s presence alone may provide more than enough upgrade to negate Damon’s absence. This offense will still pound the ball and with improvement all but a guarantee on the pitching side of things, I think the Sox are still in very good shape heading into 2006.
Edit: Adam Hyzdu signed a minor league deal with the Rangers a few weeks back. Two thoughts on that; one, I am a moron for not picking up on it. Two, given the projection, the Sox may have been well-served to hang onto the guy.
December 22nd, 2005 at 1:31 pm
CF. Preston Wilson. Ok, hear me out. It sounded crazy when I first heard it also.
Career OPS+ of 106. Damon is at 102. Last year, he was at 103 (Damon at 113). He’ll be 31, and outside of an injury plagued 2004, his OPS+ has been above 100 every year since 1998 when he was 23 and played in 22 games in the majors. His defense in CF still seems to be above-average.
His OBP isn’t his strength, but we have Loretta and Youk to get on base at 1,2. His strength is right-handed power which makes him a great compliment to Nixon.
The bad rep he’s gained is because he’s been horribly overpaid these last few years. 12.5 mil last year. I haven’t heard any contract rumblings about him, so I’m not sure what it would take. Jacque Jones got 5+mil per year and it seems like he was in more demand. Could we get Preston for 4-5 mil? Am I crazy or would he be a good fit? We wouldn’t have to give up any prospects to get him either.
December 22nd, 2005 at 1:34 pm
As I understand it, his defense has declined pretty badly, Jeff. But it’s a pretty good thought.
December 22nd, 2005 at 2:42 pm
I’m going out on a limb here and saying that if, and only if, the new GM’s don’t make some stupid knee-jerk reactionary move, I don’t see a single reason to be worried about this team. Graffanino is better than the black hole we had at SS this year, and his defense couldn’t be worse than edgar. Meanwhile, our pitching is infinitely improved, our defense is improved, and our hitting roughly stays the same assuming we don’t actually improve.
So our team has managed to both 1). get younger and 2). get better. Boy, those front office guys are so damn stupid, we should throw a 3 year, $28 million contract at Reggie Sanders to get our credibility back.
Screw you, Boston media.
December 22nd, 2005 at 9:40 pm
Agree with almost all of this, but you left out the most important factor: current payroll is in the $105-$110mm range (including Renteria). So take the above projections and add, say, some combo of FA/traded players like Clemens, Millwood, Dunn, Abreu, JD Drew, Glaus, or Wilkerson. Of course CHB et al. would claim these guys strike out too much, or aren’t athletic enough, but the team gets much better from here — and is better positioned for 2007 and beyond.
If I spend another 15 minutes of my life listening to ‘EEI, I might have to kill myself.
December 22nd, 2005 at 10:09 pm
I’m really wondering why we would sign Millwood. I mean, yeah he’s only 30, but every single thing about the 2005 season spells fluke for him. Leaving CBP for Jacob’s field is obviously beneficial, but his peripherals remained almost the exact same and his ERA fell by 2.01. That, in a nutshell, is a fluke.
Plus, unless it’s for someone like Clemens, why do we need another pitcher? As far as I can tell, Beckett / Schilling / Wakefield / Arroyo / Clement / Papelbon makes six, and once we trade one of them for a CF that’s 5. I guess I don’t see why we should get a Millwood at this point in time.
December 23rd, 2005 at 5:17 pm
With the Sox’s farm system in so much better shape than the Yankees, and the new GMs’ establishes willingness to both spend it for A-list talent and restock it by trading away overvalued players, I have no fears for 2007 and beyond, Damon or no Damon. And, frankly, I have few fears for 206. The Yankees are a serious injury to Johnson or Mussina away from being a .500 team.