The Red Sox Officially Add Gonzalez
Alex Gonzalez will, in all likelihood, be the Red Sox Opening Day starting shortstop. ESPN is reporting that the deal is done. This is not a deal to do cartwheels over but at 1 year and $3 million, the price is right for a guy that in my estimation is a top-20 offensive shortstop and a top-10 defensive one. And who knows, he’s a righthanded pull hitter with a little pop in his bat - maybe he drops an extra five home runs into the Monster Seats this season? I mean, we all remember this…
Sure the walk rate and on-base figures leave a bit to be desired, but a shortstop slugging .413 over three seasons playing home games at spacious Dolphins Stadium is nothing to sneeze at. In addition to being a sure bet to provide reliable glove-work, I don’t think an OB/SLG like .320/.430 is anywhere close to out of the question for Gonzalez. Nice pickup.
January 31st, 2006 at 12:57 pm
Sully,
I think the Red Sox fan in you spoke there, and not someone who usually provides astute baseball analysis. Alex Gonzalez is a true offensive black hole, and you will soon find out why. Last year he improved contact and OBP, and while he hit only 5 HRs, his OPS+ was 85, 15 points below league average.
In 2004, he hit 23 HRs, but his OPS+ was 77, because his OBP was .270. His career OBP is less than Tony Womack by about 30 points, and his career OPS+ is 78. He was indeed among the top 20 SSs in the league offensively, but at 17 or 18.
If the numbers that you expect are not out of question for Gonzalez, then Alex Gonzalez must be entering his career prime with his best years ahead of him. I think not.
January 31st, 2006 at 4:59 pm
I think you are downplaying the affect Fenway will have on his numbers. He goes from an extreme pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. He has hit .249/.299/.413 over the last three seasons. .320/.430 isn’t really even calling for that much of an improvement. It’s just a park and league adjustment. Interstingly, his ZIPS projection came out today and Szymborski has him at .291/.326/.451. Either way, I think a worst-case has the Sox getting just about as much as they got out of SS in 2005 when you factor defense.
February 1st, 2006 at 12:28 am
I am really sorry, but Szymborski’s numbers are seriously inflated when it comes to Fenway, and it happens every year. Last year it was Renteria. There has to be something wrong with it.
If the ZiPS numbers on most players are to be believed, then there is a really smart way to build a good offensive team: get players from scrap heap, and turn your home park into Fenway. That will magically turn them into above average players for their positions.
I am not saying your projected numbers cannot happen, but this is a guy with serious plate discipline issues. You guys were disgusted with having Millar (who was exactly league average after adjusting for ballpark)? Wait till you see Alex I-will-swing-at-everything Gonzalez.
February 1st, 2006 at 12:35 am
The other thing is this: Gonzalez used to bat in front of the pitcher in Florida, so he got 10 intentional walks (per year) for the last 3 years, which constituted about 32% of his total 31 walks. You have to factor that in too when you consider his OBP when he comes to Fenway.
I know there was not much available, and perhaps he is only keeping the seat warm for Pedroia. He better gets ready by mid-summer for Sox’s sake.
February 1st, 2006 at 9:28 am
Sam, Millar is fat and if not hitting well bringing absolutely nothing to the table. Alex Gonzalez is a plus defender that has managed a slugging percentage over .400 while playing home games in one of baseball’s most severe pitching parks. Tell me you see the difference. I’ve acknowledged his main deficiency (plate dicipline) and noted that he is good at everything else in baseball. He is about a dead-average player, which is more than I can say for what the Sox got out of SS in 2005.
February 1st, 2006 at 11:41 am
Sully-
What are you looking at when you say Gonzalez is a plus defender? His rate stats leave much to be desired, and 16 errors in 124 games is certainly not great.
Can’t wait until we have defensive metrics that agree on anything but Orlando Hudson.
February 1st, 2006 at 3:10 pm
So we signed a clone, when Cora would have been just fine. REMEMBER this—to John Henry, $3 million is PETTY cash. Look back 2 months ago and we all have to say we’re in great shape, and for a multidude ofreasons.