Kansas City Royals
2005: 56-106, 5th in the AL Central

Projected Lineup
CF David DeJesus
LF Emil Brown
DH Mike Sweeney
RF Reggie Sanders
1B Doug Mientkiewicz
2B Mark Grudzielanek
3B Mark Teahen
SS Angel Berroa
C John Buck

Projected Rotation
Mark Redman
Scott Elarton
Zack Greinke
Runelvys Hernandez
Joe Mays / Mike Wood

Projected Closer
Mike MacDougal

Outlook

There’s just not a whole helluva lot to say about this club that hasn’t already been rehashed by the poor souls that actually regularly subject themselves to this team. Allard Baird has assembled another rotten team, but figured out a whole new way to do it. In the past, Baird preferred one of three routes to futility; one, the early promotion to mediocre prospects route (Dee Brown, Jimmy Gobble, J.P. Howell)… two, the get your ass handed to you in a trade strategy (Beltran for Wood, Teahen and Buck)…and three, the utter and complete inability to identify what a good baseball player is (Jose Lima, Terrence Long). Well he once again has an ace up his sleeve this season, one that may even save his job. It’s called the “Drive for 65.” Here’s how it works. Say you’ve sucked for a number of years, you have no prospects looking like they are able to step in and dramatically turn around the team’s fortunes and your owner has decided to commit some more resources to the baseball operations side of things. What do you do? Survey the free-agent market, find appropriate values and invest in scouting and player development like a small market team should? Nope, you drive for 65. You see, the Royals only won 56 games last year and Baird’s contract is set to expire at the end of this season. Well maybe a 9-game, 16% win increase over 2005 could save Baird’s job. It would be evidence that the team would be heading in the right direction, and he could possibly buy himself more time (and a contract extension). Owner David Glass would be justified in extending Baird for a job well done, right? Wrong. Baird chose to throw lots and lots of money at thirty-something mediocrities, who, even though they may help the Royals win a few more games in 2006, won’t be around for their next 70-win season, much less their next championship. The “Drive for 65” has netted the Royals the injury-prone, 38 year-old Reggie Sanders, the fast declining Mark Grudzielanek, light-hitting first-baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, the brutal Scott Elarton and the very definition of mediocrity himself, Mark Redman. But I am not here to rant. I’ll leave it to the BP guys and Rob and Rany to underscore how there is no long-term plan whatsoever in Kansas City. Let’s simply take a look at the 2006 club and its chances.

There are some things to like about this lineup. They weren’t too far below league average last year (a 91 OPS+) and can safely expect improvement from a number of positions. First, there’s David DeJesus. At 25, he established himself as a very good Major League baseball player. DeJesus should take another step in 2006, and will almost certainly be the Royals’ best player. Emil Brown probably won’t improve upon his 2005 (.286/.349/.455) but he can be expected to wind up in the neighborhood of those numbers. Mike Sweeney, though not worth anywhere near $11 million, should once again be good. The Royals should get a considerable uptick at second base. Mark Grudzielanek will be 36 and isn’t that much of a player, but the Royals got a .235/.293/.334 line out of 2nd Base last season. Grudz can do that in his sleep. Expect something more like .280/.325/.400. Also on the bright side for the Royals’ hopes for 2006, Reggie Sanders will be taking Terrence Long’s at bats. Long hit .279/.321/.378 in 2005, deplorable production for a corner outfielder. Sanders lacks the sort of plate discipline you’d like to see but he can sure slug it. I think a .325/.475 OBA/SLG is perfectly reasonable to expect.

Now the problems start. Despite an organization chock full of guys that can hit a little bit but can’t field for their lives, the Royals decided to go out an sign an oldish, light-hitting first-baseman. Now granted Doug Mientkiewicz is a good gloveman and the Royals have correctly identified that they can’t really field. But their solution to the problem manifests a gross misunderstanding of the defensive spectrum. When you employ useful players like Mike Sweeney, Matt Stairs, Justin Huber and Billy Butler in your organization, there are only two positions on the diamond where these types will net out to be decent players, designated hitter and first base. These two positions represent opportunities to eschew defense and get some pop in your lineup. When running a baseball team, you need to understand this principle in general, and especially so when your most promising players happen to suck in the field. The Royals fail to grasp this, however, and have brought on Mientkiewicz to effectively save five or so runs on the defensive side of the ledger, cost them a whole bunch more on the offensive side and block some of their better young talent. It’s embarrassingly dumb, and symptomatic of Kansas City’s bungling ways.

The other problem with the lineup is more straightforward. That is to say, their worst three hitters are as bad as any bottom-three in baseball. Mark Teahen, Angel Berroa and John Buck will kill rallies all year long for Kansas City. None of the three hits with any real power and between them, they have walked a combined 158 times 3,159 plate appearances. Not good.

The Royals’ starters were abominable in 2005, and just by virtue of discarding Jose Lima, they figure to improve. They should also improve because it is highly unlikely that Zach Greinke will not take a step in the right direction, though if Manager Buddy Bell messes with the kid’s head enough, you never know. Only the Royals. Elarton and Redman will also provide improvement but again, what are we talking about here? Neither guy is really even an average pitcher and though they will toss some innings and allow you to hang around sometimes, paired with a similarly mediocre lineup, can you really expect to be winning ballgames consistently with these two? Improving their pitching will be nice and all, but you have to realize that we are talking about a baseline 2005 team ERA+ of 78. Though tossing a guaranteed $1 million at Joe Mays and handing him a rotation slot may help, you just can’t regress from there.

The bullpen is an actual bright spot on this team. In 2005, the Royals featured three hurlers with an ERA+ over 100. They were Mike MacDougal, Ambiorix Burgos and Andy Sisco. All three are fireballers and all three once again figure to be effective. Good thing too, because the rest of the pen is filled with has-been’s, never-really-were’s and probably-are-never-going-to-be’s.

In that they will win more games than they did the previous season, the Royals figure to be a better club in 2006. Inasmuch as it is a baseball team’s goal to win a World Series each and every year, Kansas City has taken enormous strides backwards. Without the resources to compete for premium free agents, the Royals should be looking to enhance their scouting and player development while improving their ability to manage their own roster and identifying bargains on the free agent market. They appear able to do none of these things and though the “Drive for 65” that took place this off-season may save Allard Baird’s job, it shouldn’t if David Glass has it in mind to one day oversee a winner.

Prediction: 66-96

Top 10 Prospects
1. Alex Gordon, 3B
2. Billy Butler, OF
3. Justin Huber, 1B
4. Luis Cota, RHP
5. Chris Lubanski, OF
6. Jeff Bianchi, SS
7. Chris McConnell, SS
8. Donnie Murphy, 2B
9. Shane Costa, OF
10. Mitch Maier, OF

Texas Rangers
2005: 79-83 3rd in the AL West

Projected Lineup
LF David Dellucci
SS Michael Young
CF Brad Wilkerson
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Hank Blalock
DH Phil Nevin
RF Kevin Mench
2B Ian Kinsler
C Rod Barajas

Projected Rotation
Kevin Millwood
Adam Eaton
Vincente Padilla
Kameron Loe
Juan Dominguez

Projected Closer
Francisco Cordero

Outlook
Given ESPN’s non-stop coverage of the “overhaul” of the Boston Red Sox, the rise of the Toronto Blue Jays, and the attempt to maintain the crown by the New York Yankees, you’d think that maybe there’s little going on outside of the AL East. Rather quietly, the Texas Rangers had a rather impressive off-season, though it remains to be seen whether or not the new-and-improved Rangers are good enough to pass the Angels and Athletics … or whether they’re even good enough to win outside of the cozy confines of Ameriquest Field.

The biggest news from Arlington wasn’t the trade of Alfonso Soriano for Brad Wilkerson, but the announcement that wunderkind Jon Daniels was the new GM. Daniels set about to reform the Rangers in his mold, starting with the aforementioned trade of Alfonso Soriano. Soriano, a 30-30 threat with poor plate patience and pour(ous) defense, was blocking top 50 prospect Ian Kinsler, and isn’t exactly a favorite of the performance-analysis crowd. Showing an acumen rare in new GMs, Daniels knew exactly who to call: Jim Bowden. Bowden’s never been shy about his fondness for the toolsy players, and jumped at the opportunity to acquire Soriano (even though he didn’t have a position for him). Daniels was able to acquire solid CF Brad Wilkerson, who was admittedly coming off of a very down year, along with OF Termell Sledge. Wilkerson shores up what has been a weak spot for the Rangers, as Laynce Nix has simply never developed an offense to go along with his defense (not to mention his constant presence on the DL).

Daniels moved from his acquisition of Wilkerson straight onto fixing the Rangers’ achilles heel—starting pitching. He acquired started Vincente Padilla from the Phillies for a player to be named later. Daniels signed AL ERA champion Kevin Millwood, and traded aging prospect Adrian Gonzales (blocked by potential MVP Mark Teixeira), surprising young pitcher Chris Young, and the recently acquired Sledge for Padres starter Adam Eaton and reliever Akinori Otsuka. All of a sudden, the Rangers had at least the appearance of a real rotation to go along with their ever-present offense.

The trio of Millwood, Eaton, and Padilla isn’t going to strike fear in the hearts of opposing offenses, but it’s certainly better than trotting out a staff that had four pitchers make double-digit starts with ERAs greater than 5.50. Millwood is a bit of an enigma, but is generally going to give you 200 innings of above average pitching. Eaton has yet to hit league average production over a full season, but he’s still young (28) and he doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his arm. Padilla is two seasons removed from his last good season, but, again, he’s not Chan Ho Park. The rotation will be rounded out by youngsters Kameron Loe and Juan Dominguez, who had very successful auditions in late 2005. The staff actually runs a bit deeper, with R.A. Dickey (now throwing a knuckleball alongside the “Thing”), Joaquin Benoit, and even John Wasdin around to fill in for ineffective or injured starters. Things are certainly better in the starting pitching department than they were a season ago.

One suprising strength of the Rangers over the past few seasons has been its bullpen, though that wasn’t as true in ‘05. With injuries (Frank Francisco) and ineffectiveness (Brian Shouse, Doug Brocail), the Rangers’ bullpen wasn’t much better than its starters. Still, they’re anchored by flamethrowing closer Francisco Cordero (37 saves and 79 Ks in 69 IP), and should see a positive bounce with the acquisition of Otsuka and the benefit of having some of the starting pitching depth adding some talent to the bullpen (Benoit and Wasdin were both fairly effective out of the pen in ‘05). This pitching staff certainly isn’t as good as the As or the Angels, but it’s better than the staff that gave up 858 runs in 2005.

The Rangers hitters pound the crap out of the ball. Well, at home, at least. Away from Arlington, the team is much less scary. Things are looking up for Rangers fans—with Soriano gone to Washington, only Hank Blalock has a really amazingly bad home/away split. The rest of the Rangers hitters are certainly better at home than away, but not nearly with the serverity that the team has seen in recent seasons. The offense is paced by Michael Young and Mark Teixeira, two of the best young hitters at their positions in all of baseball. Young has likely moved into the top 3 SS in the AL, quite possibly passing Derek Jeter to trail only Miguel Tejada. Playing in Texas, with boppers like Teixeira and Blalock, Young has toiled in some obscurity, but he’s proven to be a quality ballplayer and has a chance to make some noise on the world stage in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Teixeira, he of the of the annoyingly difficult name to spell, had a breakout season in 2005, showing up all over the leader boards, winning a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. Hank Blalock continues to hit like an All-Star at home (20 HRs, 895 OPS) and like Pokey Reese on the road (5 HR, 611 OPS). At age 25, and with three full seasons under his belt, he’s entering the time where he needs to become a complete player or the Rangers will likely start looking for a replacement. The infield is rounded out by rookie Ian Kinsler. Kinsler has put up solid offensive lines in the minors, and the Rangers have finally given him a chance to prove his worth at the major league level. It’s quite possible that the Rangers could have a double play tandem that will hit a combined 50 HRs, even without Alfonso Soriano. Rod Barajas bats 9th, catches the ball behind the plate, and hits 20 HRs. He doesn’t need to do much else to be one of the better offensive catchers in the AL (even if his career OBP is an anemic .278)

Across the outfield, the Rangers have Dave Dellucci, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench, with Gary Matthews playing the role of super 4th OF. Dellucci had a mini-breakout season at age 31. He’s one to expect some regression from, but he’s had back-to-back nifty seasons for Texas, so his regression to the mean might not be as hard a fall as some are expecting. Wilkerson has 35 HR potential in Texas, and if he can improve his contact rate at all, he’ll once again be a solid offensive player, given his high walk rate. If he’s healthy, he should easily produce as much as Soriano did, while giving the team better defense. Kevin Mench has found his niche: a poor fielder who hits for power and walks a bit, who would be better as a 4th outfielder but isn’t awful as a starter. The DH is Phil Nevin, who was god-awful last season, is now 35, and has always been fragile. Reports are that he’s come into camp in shape and looking great, but that’s what they always say about old players during spring training. If Nevin is particularly bad, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dellucci moved to DH and Matthews moved into the starting lineup.

It’s hard to see how the Rangers could be worse than last season’s near .500 finish. They improved the pitching staff—not enough to win the division, but enough to be competitive. They lost Alfonso Soriano, but replaced him with two players (Wilkerson and Kinsler) who should replace his offense. Even with some regression from players like Dellucci, Barajas, and Matthews, this team is still a good bet to score 825-850 runs. It won’t be enough, but this will be a competitive team and a good, young base for Jon Daniels to build on.

Prediction: 82-80

Top 10 Prospects
1.John Danks LHP
2.Thomas Diamond RHP
3.Ian Kinsler SS
4.Eric Hurley RHP
5.Edison Volquez RHP
6.Taylor Teagarden C
7.Jason Botts 1B
8.Joaquin Arias SS
9.Armando Galarraga RHP
10.John Mayberry Jr. OF

Jeff’s kicked off our Season Previews with a look at the 2006 Philadelphia Phillies.

So you know, Mullet, Jeff and I will be rotating through all 30 MLB teams over the next month and although there are plenty of outlets where one can get these sorts of previews, we think we can add a little value with our own way of looking at things. As we said a few months back and as it states in our banner, we want to be your Red Sox site for Sox talk and beyond. So here’s our way of trying to provide some interesting reads on the rest of MLB. I will conclude the series just before Opening Day with the Red Sox preview.

We hope you enjoy.

Philadelphia Phillies
2005: 88-74, 2nd in the NL East

Projected Lineup
SS Jimmy Rollins
2B Chase Utley
RF Bobby Abreu
LF Pat Burrell
1B Ryan Howard
CF Aaron Rowand
C Mike Lieberthal
3B David Bell

Projected Rotation
Jon Lieber
Brett Myers
Ryan Franklin
Cory Lidle
Ryan Madsion

Closer
Tom Gordon

Outlook
And all the villagers said, “What are we to do without Ji

Jim Thome.”

In the kick off of our team preview series, I’ve referenced the Simpsons and The Dugout, which is a good start I think. The Phillies jettisoned the biggest free agent signing in franchise history to Chicago’s South Side, admitting that it probably wasn’t the best idea to give a player like Jim Thome a six-year contract.

For the three years the Phillies owned the rights to Thome they were competitive enough, winning 260 games. However, the cost of those teams to win 86 games a year with Jim Thome was $61 million. You see, the Phillies paid $39 million in salary to their savior, and then wanted so badly for him to play for someone else; they are giving the White Sox $22 million over the next three seasons. All that money spent only to win 86 games a year with Jim Thome.

I am probably being slightly unfair, as Thome was the best hitter on the team in 2003, and the second best in 2004 before Ryan Howard deemed him expendable. But part of the problem with investing so much money ($85 million at the time of the signing) in a first baseman in his thirties is that it’s not easy to move him when his salary outpaces his production (hence eating $22 million), and if you happen to have a young, talented player in that position, he’s going to waste in AAA (hence Ryan Howard). Not only that, in the death spasms of the Ed Wade era, he generally complained about the lack of payroll flexibility to build a pitching staff. I’m wondering if using that $13 million a year would have been better served finding someone who can throw the baseball. In a related story, Ed Wade doesn’t have a job right now.

Thome is a very good baseball player, and from all accounts, one of the nicest guys in baseball. That’s great, but that doesn’t excuse a baseball man from throwing money at a player surely not to be worth it by the end of the contract. I know he was hurt last year, but immobile baseball players get hurt when they are 35. This isn’t exactly earth-shattering news.

Year one of the post-Thome era opens under new management with the hiring of Uber-GM Pat Gillick. Gillick presided over two World Series champions in Toronto, a few very good Baltimore franchises, and a Seattle team that had a good run. He’s adored by the observationally-minded of us out there, and generally either treated with antipathy or apathy by the performance-minded. One thing that does bear mentioning with his track record is that he generally takes a pretty good team, makes it better, and then as soon as he leaves, the team collapses something fierce. Word of warning for you Phillie Phaithful out there…the Phillies will reach new levels of suck when Gillick gets bored and walks away from the team. Probably just in time for the next Marlins World Series winner.

Gillick is inheriting/building a pretty strange team right now. Last year, the Phillies were second in the National League in scoring offense, and 10th in scoring defense (just to clarify, that’s runs/game scored and allowed). Things really aren’t what they seem though. Citizen’s Bank Park is particularly hellish on pitchers, increasing offense 16% (when you take away games into account, offense is increased 5.2%). If you tease out the park affects, the Phillies drop from almost 5 runs a game (4.98) down to 4.7 (which drops them to 3rd in the NL). In raw amounts, the runs go from 807 down to 767. By this same analysis, the Reds lose 8 runs, the Cardinals gain 7, and the Rockies lose 91. On the other side of the ledger, the Phillies make up 36 runs, going from 726 to 690, which is good for sixth in the Senior Circuit.

What was the point of all that? The Phillies face the same problem of all teams in an extreme park. They underestimate the weaker standing and overestimate the stronger one. This leads to a misallocation of resources usually, such as the Phillies spending the better part of the offseason trying to move Thome and get some pitching.

The best part about moving Thome is that it opens up a lineup spot for reigning NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard. Howard can do some studly things like completely dismantle pitching through Godly amounts of power, and he walks enough to keep pitchers honest. His strikeouts are pretty high, whiffing about once every three at bats, but that’s not the most concerning part of his repertoire. There is little chance that Ryan Howard will develop into an MVP-level player, despite the Era of Good Feelings he is bringing.

Right now, Howard has 351 at bats in the majors. At age 26. Other 26 year olds with more at bats are: Garrett Atkins (616), Hee Choi (915), Humberto Cota (405), Michael Cuddyer (993) and David DeJesus (831). This doesn’t count players like Coco Crisp, Adrian Beltre, Adam Dunn, anyone under the letter D, or the pitchers that are 26 and have a longer MLB track record. Unfortunately, Howard is more likely to have a Ron Kittle career than a Willie Stargell, due to the fact he just didn’t play until he was 25.

Up the middle, the Phillies are solid, with another oldish star-in-the-making playing second in Chase Utley, and the enigmatic shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Even when you take park into consideration, it’s not easy to find a second baseman that slugs .540 and gets on base almost 40% of the time. He’s not the best with the glove, but he’s not really bad either. His only real problem is that he’s 27 this year, so the chances of him being a superstar are about the same as Howard’s (Utley is older, but has more experience and has a higher baseline.) Rollins is still working on a 36 game hit streak that really saved his season.

Which brings me to this question: What do you think the media coverage will be like if Rollins hits in his first 10 games or so? The streak is still alive, but he’d be working on 46 games at that point and you could say DiMaggio’s streak would be in serious jeopardy at that point. My guess would be that the media would hound him with questions about the legitimacy of working on a 57 game hitting streak, while taking five months off in the middle. I would say that it’s every bit as legitimate as any other streak. Back to the task at hand, David Bell is a horrible baseball player, and Charlie Manual would do well to think about starting just about anyone else there. Except Alex Gonzalez. Stay away from him at all costs (I’m looking at you Theo).

For what seems like the last 100 years, Mike Lieberthal has been backed up by Todd Pratt. Tank (I guess that’s his nickname) has moved on to Braver pastures, playing guardian and drug keeper-awayer to Brian McCann. Pratt is a fun guy to watch, as far as backup catchers go and he’s replaced by possibly the only one more fun, Sal Fasano. If Fasano wasn’t a backup catcher, he’d be the annoying guy in the office that just told you the story about how he met James Gandolfini for the 50th time. As for Lieberthal, one can only assume that he hated the Jon Lieber signing a year ago since it took his “Liebs” nickname. That’s about the only interesting thing about Lieberthal other than his destruction of my fantasy team when he tore his knee. I make it my promise to bring that up every year until Lieberthal retires.

One of the funniest subplots of last season was that Bobby Abreu didn’t really get national recognition as a great baseball player until he won the home run derby by hitting something like 2454436513 home runs. All from a guy who isn’t really a home run hitter, and has legitimately been one of the best players in baseball in the National League for half a decade. Now, some people have noticed his awesomeness, due to the Phillies paying him a good amount of money for a while. 2005 saw some regression of Abreu, mostly in the power department as he went into a length slump after the All Star break, but he was still one of the better hitters in the National League. He also won a Gold Glove with his bat, which is always nice.

Last year, I said that time was running out for Pat Burrell to establish himself as anything more than a overhyped, pretty good player. He e-mailed me to say “shut up, internet geek! I will hit .281/.389/.504 and carry my team’s offense while Chaz Manuel is reluctant to play Howard and Abreu flails at pitches. I hate you!”

I just made that up.

Aaron Rowand was the schwag the Phillies paid to get rid of Jim Thome, and he’s a pretty interesting player. He really doesn’t hit righties well enough to play every day as a hitter, but he really crushes southpaws. And he might be one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, which raises the question if it’s enough to cover his shortfall against 70% of the pitchers in baseball? A guy like Rowand has value to almost every team, but they are basically replacing Jason Michaels with him (despite Michaels sticking around until January). Rowand is entering the back part of his prime, and will probably have enough value to be the second or third best centerfielder in the East.

The Phillies are continuing recent tradition of going into April with a bunch of guys that waiver between 5% of league average and pitch 200 innings. Ryan Madison has a nice live arm, and was one of the better relievers in baseball a few seasons ago. Cory Lidle is still Cory Lidle. Lieber is still Lieber.

The two interesting members of the Phillies rotation are Bret Myers and Ryan Franklin, but for completely different reasons. Myers finally put it together last year and was probably would have had a Cy Young showing (in the top 10 or whatever, not the winner) if the season ended in June. He will definitely be the ace of the 2006 Phillies and might have one of those seasons that people take notice of (18-5, 3.40 rather than last year’s 13-8, 3.72).

Ryan Franklin will go on the disabled list this year, I’m guessing by May 1st, due to acute whiplash in his neck. Pencil him in for 40 HR allowed if he throws 200 innings. I get perverse pleasure from this, pitchers who are homer-prone going to home run parks. My dream would be for Eric Milton to pitch in Colorado.

The bullpen was the bane of Ed Wade’s existence. This year will probably be more of the same, with Arthur Rhodes, and Rheal Cormier playing canasta in between trying to get lefties out. The northpaws in the pen are pretty much unknown, I guess. I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that camp will separate the chaff from the worse chaff a bit. Robinson Tejada is good, I guess. Cole Hamels and Gavin Floyd have been guys to watch forever and either or both might make the pen. Just as likely is that they go to Scranton for a few months.

In the back is Flash (AHHHAH!) Gordon, pitching for his 52nd team and will be pointing to the sky 30 times replacing Billy Wagner. That is if he can stay healthy. Joe Torre rode him pretty hard the last two seasons, and he is 38 years old. Whatever. At least he can get guys out.

The Phillies are facing the closing of their window to win something of note. Soon, the Abreu/Burrell core will be too old to carry teams, and because of an organizational reluctance to hand the keys over to the kids in an effort to win 86 games again, Utley and Howard will be complementary players not soon after. Gillick has done a good job of treading water, which might be enough to steal 2nd place from either the Mets or the Braves, and sneak into a wild card with the NL West being horrible, and the NL Central being schizophrenic. What’s closer to the truth is that the Phillies probably don’t have the horses and will spend their 4th straight year as pretty good

Prediction: 86-76

Top 10 Prospects
1. Gio Gonzalez LHP
2. Cole Hamels LHP
3. Welinson Baez 2B
4. Daniel Haigwood LHP
5. Mike Constanzo 3B
6. Greg Golson OF
7. Michael Bourn OF
8. Jason Jaramillo C
9. J.A. Happ LHP
10. Tim Kennelly 3B

Doing my daily baseball reading, I came across an optimal lineup generator that David Pinto of Baseball Musings had coded, based on a Perl script that Ken Arneson of Catfish Stew wrote, based on the work of Cyril Morong from Beyond the Box Score. Morong has taken Retrosheet data from ‘89-’02 and ran a regression analysis to determine the coefficients for OBP and SLG for each lineup slot.

Got all that?

Then it turns out that BoSoxBob over at HireMeTheo ran the lineup analysis using the ZiPS projections from Baseball Think Factory. He found that the best lineup had Manny Ramirez second and Coco Crisp third. I’m guessing that’s pretty optimistic projection for Crisp (.303/.353/.448).

Well, given that I dork around in Perl most of the day for a living, and given that Ken Arneson did all the work already anyway, I figured I’d toss some Red Sox projections into the script and see what it spit out. Given that I’m partial to the heavily regressed Marcel the Monkey projections, I decided to use those. In the 2006 Marcels, Crisp’s line is a slightly more palatable (for my tastes, anyway) .293/.345/.439.

So … without futher ado … the optimal 2006 Boston Red Sox batting order!
Mark Loretta (.299/.371/.422)
Manny Ramirez (.295/.400/.554)
Jason Varitek (.275/.365/.467)
David Ortiz (.290/.383/.563)
Trot Nixon (.282/.367/.479)
Mike Lowell (.264/.340/.439)
Coco Crisp (.293/.345/.439)
Alex Gonzalez (.251/.315/.406)
Kevin Youkilis (.268/.363/.426)

According to the projections and the lineup analyis, that batting order would score 944 runs. However, it’s not terribly likely that we’ll see Terry Francona trot out a lineup like that this year. Ortiz/Nixon back to back won’t happen very often, and I don’t think Terry will ever bat Manny second. Plus, it sounds like they’re leaning towards batting Crisp leadoff, for “traditional baseball reasons” (i.e. he’s fast and plays CF) and probably because it’s also better PR to do that given that he’s essentially replacing Johnny Damon.

The likely batting order will probably shakeout like this:
Crisp
Loretta
Oritz
Ramirez
Nixon
Varitek
Lowell
Youkilis
Gonzalez

That lineup, according to the analysis, would score 920 runs — 24 runs less than the optimal lineup. 24 sounds like a lot — and it is, given that 10 runs of offense generally improves your team by 1 win — but over the course of the season that might not be worth the headaches that one would deal with when using the optimal lineup. One anecdote: given that there are about 360k permutations of a 9 player lineup (9! or 9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1), there are approximately 140k lineup combinations that would score more runs than the Sox likely lineup. In most cases, it’s literally 1/100th of a run, but I just thought it was an interesting little nugget for you to use on days when the Sox aren’t scoring … “Hey Francona … there’s like a hundred thousand better lineups you could have trotted out today … jackass.”

Still, there’s got to a better lineup that won’t cost the Sox 2 wins, but also will be palatable to the baseball traditionalists. The best I could find:
Loretta
Youkilis
Ortiz
Ramirez
Nixon
Lowell
Varitek
Gonzalez
Crisp

This version would score 931 runs, so it’s about 1 win worse than optimal, but 1 win likely than the likely lineup. Given that the Sox finished in a dead heat with the Yankees last season, I’ve just found us an AL East title. Go me.

Of course, now let’s discuss the fun questions. How could Terry Francona get himself canned? What lineup is green kryptonite to the Sox offense? What lineup would Grady Little run out there?

Ok, the Grady Little shot was a bit much. But here’s the Sox worst possible lineup:
Gonzalez
Crisp
Nixon
Youkilis
Lowell
Loretta
Varitek
Ramirez
Ortiz

The Bad News Sox would still score 887 runs, but losing almost 60 runs off of your season total might very well be the difference between 1st and 3rd place in the AL East this season.

So there you have it. The optimal Red Sox lineup (using the 2006 Marcel projections). Of course, this is the sort of thing that just spawns more questions (How does PECOTA make the Sox lineup shakeout? What happens if you replace Coco Crisp with Johnny Damon? Randy Winn? What if Lowell is complete ass again this season?).

Well - those questions will need to wait for a future installment. However, I was curious enough to throw the 2006 Johnny Damon projection in and take a look at the production of the likely Red Sox lineup (Damon/Loretta/Ortiz/Ramirez/Nixon/Varitek/Lowell/Gonzalez/Youkilis).

Let’s just say that according to the Marcels, Coco Crisp better be at least 15 runs better than Damon defensively in CF.

If illogical, cockeyed drivel is your sort of thing then boy do I have the perfect combination for you. Ladies and gentlemen, I present the Curly Haired Boyfriend himself and the immortal once pretty good Jim Rice on Rice’s Hall case.

‘’Why is Ripken going in?” he asked.

When the consecutive-game streak (2,632) is offered, Rice said, ‘’Exactly. But would you start your team with Ripken? Can Ripken bat .345?

‘’OK, now give me Gwynn,” he continued. ‘’Why is he going in?”

Three thousand hits (3,141 to be precise) is a good start.

‘’How many years did he play? [20] Would you start your team with Gwynn? Case closed. Longevity. That’s all it is. Longevity.

Wheeeee!!!

Expanding on my Baseball Analysts DH topic, the great Brian Gunn (of Redbird Nation fame) delves further into the issue of which franchises have been best at which positions. It’s a really fun read, so check it out.

Manny is reporting late to Spring Training and I don’t give a shit.

I’m confident Dirt Dogs will slander the guy though and I hear WEEI has streaming audio now so if this sort of thing piques your interest, there ya go.

There has been some chatter around here that seems to suggest people are down on Matt Clement. Given human nature and the notion that last impressions can be lasting impressions, who can blame them? He was shelled in Game One of the 2005 ALDS against Chicago and really wasn’t a great pitcher in the second half of the year. I would just like to say that I expect Clement to be a good deal better than he was last year, or at least the main stats that we look at will reflect a better full season. There are a few reasons for this:

1) He was never really a good pitcher after being hit in the head by a Carl Crawford line drive in Tampa. Though I am no expert and I could never prove this, I have to think the incident had negative, lingering effects after he returned.

2) Of all of the starting pitchers in baseball, only Arizona’s Brad Halsey was hosed worse than Clement by his bullpen in 2005. Clement had an additional 5 runs over and above an average starter tacked onto his earned runs allowed total. Doesn’t sound like much but it would be enough to shave about a quarter of a run off his ERA. If he had even a little luck, it could have been a lot more than a quarter run.

3) Clement’s BABIP (Batting Average (against) on Balls In Play) was .303, well above league average. The Red Sox have a revamped infield defense, with far more capable glovemen at shortstop and arguably, third base. An improved defense converting more balls in play into outs should also help Clement.

Yes, the Red Sox dangled Clement in the off-season and yes, Clement faltered down the stretch a bit in 2005. But I still believe, for the reasons above, that despite his 2005 Clement is capable of 200 slightly above average innings in 2006. He will be an important piece of the 2006 Red Sox puzzle, which is a good thing if you ask me.

Edit: A kind enough soul to spare me from public enbarassment in the comments section has pointed out to me that the AL average BABIP last season was .298, so Clement’s .303 was not “well above average” as I stated. Perhaps a better way to have made the third point would have been to point out his component ERA of 4.23 or his DIPS ERA of 4.17.

With good reason, people are buzzing about Dustin Pedroia. Save injury-related struggles in Pawtucket last season, the former Arizona State Sundevil has torn through the Minor Leagues and very well may be Boston’s starting shortstop before 2006 is all said and done. Hell he might be before March is all said and done. Before Hanley Ramirez was dealt this off-season in the Josh Beckett trade, there was a lot of talk amongst the sober-thinking and fanboys alike that the Sox might have their middle infield of the future in Ramirez and Pedroia. Well the talk was not unsubstantiated, they just had the wrong double-play mate for Pedroia. If the Sox are going to develop a long-term middle infielder to play alongside Pedroia, it is going to be Jed Lowrie, who will begin the year as the starting shortstop for Wilmington in the Carolina League.

Like Pedroia, Lowrie played his college ball in the Pac-1o. In three seasons with the Stanford Cardinal, he made his reputation as an athletic middle infielder with a plus arm and off-the-charts power. He was the very best hitter in the country in 2004, a good bit better in fact than Pedroia. Here are their respective 2004 numbers and keep in mind that, according to Boyd Nation, Arizona State’s home field has played as an advantageous hitter’s park over the years while Stanford’s Sunken Diamond has been very favorable to pitchers.

Pedroia: .393/.502/.611
Lowrie: .399/.505/.734

Lowrie’s stock slipped a bit when his productivity fell off in 2005, though he was still quite good (.317/.416/.594). Still, there was plenty of evidence that Lowrie could play and the Red Sox took him with the 45th overall selection in last June’s Amateur Draft. In 53 games with the Lowell Spinners of the New York-Penn League, Lowrie showed promise, putting up an OPS of .877.

2006 will be huge for Lowrie. Personally, I believe there is a decent chance that he shows a Pedroia-style, meteoric rise through the Minor League ranks. Along with fellow Pac-10′er Jacoby Ellsbury, however, Lowrie will be making the leap from short-season ball in Lowell to high-A ball in the Carolina League. It will be a good test, and we all should have a better sense by late summer for whether a middle infield for years to come of Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie is a likelihood, a possibility or a pipedream.

John Sickels has his annual top-20 prospects up for the Sox. Craig Hansen tops the list.

With Spring training opening in Arizona for some teams, and the Sox coming up soon, there is a pressing question that has really racked my brain, but I can’t figure out a good answer.

The Red Sox’s best/most MLB ready prospect is Jonathan Papelbon. Writers, message board posters, bar denizens and just about everyone with an opinion about the Sox are in love with the Mississippi State product. I mean, people are comparing him to Roger Clemens based on the bad-assedness of 34 big league innings. Though I’m loath to compare him to one of the best pitcher of all time, Paps (‘cause he’s my boy) makes me happy to be a Red Sox fan.

Unfortunately, there is a 25 man roster limit at the big league level, and our collective boy (I can share) needs to pitch in order to develop into a great pitcher. That means he needs to not waste in a bullpen, unless you want to leave some of his luscious potential on the table and turn him into a closer. This would make me very sad indeed. So sad, in fact, that I’ll post something like “What’s next, Lester as a LOOGY!” on these very pages. This will be followed by an e-mail from Sully telling me to take my meds again.

When I wrote my pitching piece a few days ago, I wrote about Papelbon being easy to stash in Pawtucket, due to the fact he’s cheap and has options. I went on an angry tangent about Red Sox management that I saved for a more sober piece on Paps, of which I will post right over here:

Quick reasons I think this is probably a mistake to keep Papelbon out of Boston:
*I’m of the philosophical thinking that given the choice between an older mediocrity and an unproven, high ceiling youngster, you go with the young guy. The Red Sox pitching staff is full of either the old or the average, and Paps is really neither. He showed last year (in AAA and his ever so short stint in the majors) that he can handle getting big leaguers out. The only questions are is he better suited for relief or starting.

*The answer is starting because his build can easily handle the work load, he started to great success in the minors (the best predictor of MLB success), and he dominated three levels of baseball last year.

*He’s 25. If you don’t give him the chance to be a major league pitcher now, he might never be anything more than another young guy the Sox were too afraid to give playing time to.

I’ve thought about those three points a lot since I wrote them and subsequently scrapped them, and I think I came to a better conclusion.

The worst thing you can do with Papelbon is put him in the bullpen. Starters have more value to a team than relievers do, and only last year’s desperation made him a reliever anyway. He needs to build endurance and refine his secondary pitches in order to be the top-of-the-rotation starter that seems to be the consensus.

The inability to easily move some contracts (read: Wells/Clement) means that Papelbon’s only real option is to put him in Pawtucket and wait for Wells/Schilling/Beckett to miss some time due to an ouchie. He’ll play the important 6th starter role for these Red Sox, and there will be two stages of hand wringing involved…when he is originally optioned down, and when the man he replaces gets healthy.

Pitchers and catchers began reporting yesterday and so you know what that means. Mind-numbing human interest stories about how such-and-such player is excited for camp and ready to meet his new mates and eager to get going…blah blah blah. Well leading off the laziest sports media time of the year, when reporters interview one player a day with a sandwich from the press room in one hand and a microphone in the other, is Josh Beckett. Unless you find the fact that Josh Beckett wishes not to be compared to Roger Clemens riveting, there’s nothing interesting in any of these stories. What is interesting, however, is to think about what Beckett might be able to provide. Can he shake the injury bug this year? He is only 25 and has been more injury-unlucky than injury prone. Even with injuries aside, what sort of pitching can we expect when Beckett is on the mound? Despite his big arm, excellent stuff and memorable World Series heroics, Beckett’s been a tad ordinary away from Dolphins Stadium, one of the friendlier pither’s parks in all of baseball. Since 2003, Beckett’s road ERA has been 4.11 as opposed to an overal ERA of 3.41. His peripheral numbers are also down on the road.

What to make of it all? Not sure, but it will be fun watching a 25-year old with that kind of arm try to once and for all truly hit his stride. That much I do know.

Never much of a fielder to begin with, thanks to an invite from Rich Lederer I am the Designated Hitter today over at the Baseball Analysts.

Hope you like the piece!

Over at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, SG has compiled two sets of Diamond Mind projections. One is based on ZIPS and has the Sox winning the AL East. The other is based upon PECOTA and has the Yanks winning the East by a comfortable margin. I am not really sure what to make of these other than to say it’s kind of fun to look at. So thanks, SG.

One thing to note, though. The ZIPS projection has the Yanks scoring 821 runs while PECOTA has the Yanks scoring 879 in 2006. I have been hearing a lot of people, most notably and lately Tim Kurkjian, saying as though it’s a foregone conclusion that the Yankees are going to score 1,000 runs this year. It’s preposterous. The Yanks scored 886 runs in 2005. Now, they did add Johnny Damon and he will enhance their production out of center field but what about their other hitters? Save Robinson Cano, each of their position players is past an age at which he could reasonably be expected to improve. So yeah, the Yanks will have a nice offense - maybe the best in baseball - but they ain’t scoring no 1,000 runs.

Today I’m leaving the bones un-eaten…

Let’s jump in the way back machine and go to August, 1992. The more astute among you will remember that was last time the Red Sox finished in the basement of their division. I was eleven years old, and true parlance of all of those who were once eleven in the Greater Boston area, I loved the Red Sox.

Three days before my twelfth birthday, my parents told me they were getting divorced, which kind of took me completely by surprise, seeing as though I was eleven and didn’t understand the nuances of grownup relationships. Baseball didn’t really seem that important anymore. For the rest of that summer the Red Sox just didn’t matter. That winter, I didn’t pay attention to the Patriots (this was easy because in the pre-Parcells era, almost none of the home games were televised anyway). I still watched the Celtics with my grandparents, but I didn’t care.

Back in August, we moved (my mom, brother and I…my dad moved to our town a few months later) immediately. I was thrusted into new town, and new school with the specter of my parents split up dangling over my head. I was already kind of a shy kid, and I had trouble finding my niche. Basically, what I’m saying is that 1992 was the worst year of my life.

After a few months of just walking the earth, the fall gave way to winter, and eventually February came. Every morning, my mom sent me to school with The Boston Globe, so I had something to read between classes and other down times (this obviously did not help my reputation. I was too nerdy to know better). So I was sitting at lunch with a few kids I was friendly with and I was perusing the sports section on Truck Day. This was kind of a conversation starter, as they generally didn’t care that I was a baseball fan, and I didn’t go out of my way to let them know. We talked about baseball with the normal sophistication that twelve-year-olds talk about everything. That wasn’t the point…baseball made me feel more comfortable, and it was much easier adjusting to everything once the 1993 season started. It didn’t even matter that the Sox weren’t good again. I not only had baseball, but I had people to discuss it with.

Fast forward to the fall of 1999, I moved onto a hall that was basically intact from the last year…well, of the 26 or so people on the floor, I think there were five freshmen or someone that didn’t know someone else. Still being somewhat tentative around people I didn’t know (I wasn’t so much shy anymore), baseball was my in again. The floor was a nice mosaic of Red Sox, Yankee, and Met fans, all three teams in the playoffs. The floor was entertainingly festive for that whole week. And I was in the thick of it, with some people I still consider my best friends. Among those was my current girlfriend, who was a Yankees fan. Of course, she unyoked that particular brand of fascism and joined the Red Sox fandom after a particularly Grady-rific loss in 2003. I’ll probably unleash that story at another time.

Normally, I hate the stories that wax poetic about something that is generally just entertainment at its face. But today is the day that the trucks leave Boston for Ft. Myers. A little waxing is allowed on a day like today. Opening Day is but a mere month and a half away.

We’ve been tough on Tony Massarotti here over the years and so in fairness to the guy I thought I would point you all to his column today. It’s a solid effort and does a nice job capturing the range of possibilities for the Red Sox this season. It’s nothing earth-shattering - he basically points out that the Red Sox might do well or they might not - but it’s more balanced analytically than anything I have seen Mazz write in a while. No axes to grind and a pretty good grasp of the questions facing the Sox.

Obviously, there is significant potential here. If Josh Beckett stays healthy . . . if Curt Schilling returns to form . . . if Keith Foulke rediscovers himself . . . if Mike Lowell bounces back . . . if Coco Crisp adapts . . . if Kevin Youkilis blossoms . . . the Red Sox will remain a legitimate contender for both a wild card spot and a championship.

And there are more questions beyond those.

Here’s the problem: The more ifs, the worse your chances. In the case of the 2006 Red Sox, some of those ifs are calculated risks, but you get the idea. The good news is that Varitek, Ortiz and Ramirez, in particular, are still centerpieces of the club. But given the amount of turnover on the roster, we need to see how this team fits together — on and off the field.

Baseball’s coming, people. It’s Truck Day.

I generally don’t like picking on such low-hanging fruit but let’s be honest. The Providence Journal’s Jim Donaldson is a first-rate horse’s ass whose disdain for the Red Sox and dimwitted analytical abilities have both been well documented over the years. His latest effort includes a back-of-the-envelope, position-by-position look at the Red Sox lineup changes and how the respective players can expect to fare in comparison to the player that held the position in 2005. It’s painful stuff, and a quintessential example of the shoddy work being trotted out by so many of the mainstream papers. I’ll take it bit by bit.

Instead of Kevin Millar at first base (.272, 9 HR, 50 RBI, .355 on-base percentage, in 134 games), we have Kevin Youkilis (.278, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .400 OBP, in 44 games) and J.T. Snow, recently of the San Francisco Giants, for whom he batted .275, with 4 HR and 40 RBI, in 117 games. His OBP was .343.

Offensively, that’s arguably a wash. And there’s no question, at least when Snow’s on the field, the position will be stronger defensively.

This is how the analysis goes throughout the whole piece. By virtue of parenthetically telling you the player’s batting average and on-base percentage, along with how many home runs, RBI’s and games played a player logged in the prior season alone, Donaldson feels that he is able to perform the sort of statistical analysis that can allow one to draw conclusions. Now, I am no mathematician but there are so many problems with this. First, it’s evident that Donaldson has no clue that players’ performances tend to vary greatly from year to year. For instance, J.T. Snow has a career OPS+ of 106, but has only come within 3 points of that figure once in any given season. So obviously, simply reeling off even relevant numbers for the previous season, much less RBI totals, would not prove to have a helluva lot of predictive value. Second, he clearly hasn’t the foggiest idea about park factors, and this will grow increasingly evident in other examples. And finally, it still ceases to amaze me that writers refuse to use more straightforward and accurate means of noting performance. I wouldn’t dare think Donaldson’s ilk would adopt any sort of Runs Created formula or OPS+ which requires not only a more advanced (and accurate) means of expressing performance quality but they also show, gasp, context. Even on a broadsheet like the ProJo, it’s high time we see at least the occasional BA/OBP/SLG. Anyway, for a reliable comparison, here is how Youks and Snow stack up compared to Millar.

Millar (2005): .272/.355/.399
Youkilis: .268/.400/.417 (ZIPS), .256/.374/.429 (PECOTA)
Snow: .267/.346/.378 (ZIPS), .267/.340/.418 (PECOTA

Donaldson goes on…

New second baseman Mark Loretta hit .280 in 105 games last season for San Diego, with 3 HR, 38 RBI, a .360 OBP, and 8 steals in 12 attempts in 105 games. Tony Graffanino, who took over from Mark Bellhorn last year in Boston, batted .309, with 7 HR, 38 RBI, and an OBP of .366. He had 7 steals in 9 tries. Give the offensive edge to Graffanino, but only slightly.

First of all, Graffanino hit .319 but had a lower on-base. It was .355, not .366. Second, I don’t think that Donaldson has any clue that Petco Park can suppress one’s offensive numbers or that Fenway can enhance them. To simply reel off numbers without mentioning where either player played his home games manifests such a fundamental lack of understanding of the game of baseball that it becomes almost unthinkable to me that he gets to professionally cover the sport.

Graffanino (2005): .319/.355/.457
Loretta: .320/.387/.441 (ZIPS), .292/.360/.423 (PECOTA)

Renteria batted .276 in 153 games, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 70 RBI, and an OBP of .335. He had 9 steals in 13 attempts and, although he struck out 100 times, he walked 55 — a better ratio than Gonzalez’s 31 walks and 81 strikeouts. Gonzalez batted .264 last year, with 30 doubles, 5 homers, 45 RBI, and on OBP of .319 in 130 games. He attempted 8 steals and was caught 3 times.

Clearly, the Red Sox are hoping the runs Gonzalez can save with his glove will make up for his lack of production at the plate.

Another park factors story. Nothing new. Gonzalez was worse than Renteria last year but only slightly so. He looks a lot worse of course because he played home games in spacious Dolphins Stadium, something that is obviously lost on poor Jim.

Renteria (2005): .276/.335/.385
Gonzalez: .275/.326/.451 (ZIPS), .261/.311/.442 (PECOTA)

At third base, there’s no question Boston was better off with Bill Mueller, who hit .295 in 150 games, with 10 HR, 62 RBI, and a .369 OBP, than Mike Lowell, whose .236 average last year was a career-low. Lowell hit just 8 HR in 150 games for Florida, drove in 58 runs, and had an OBP of .298.

And everybody knows that if you put up successive all-star seasons and then your performance falls off the table, there’s no chance that the down year was simply an outlier.

Mueller (2005): .295/.369/.430
Lowell: .283/.356/.489 (ZIPS), .263/.330/.454 (PECOTA)

That brings us to center field, where Coco Crisp will be replacing the charismatic Johnny Damon, who’ll be batting leadoff for the Yankees this season.

Crisp hit .300 last year to Damon’s .316. Crisp had 42 doubles; Damon, 35. Crisp had 16 homers; Damon, 10. Crisp scored 86 runs and drove in 69. Damon scored 117 and had 75 RBI. Crisp played 145 games; Damon, 148. While Crisp stole 15 bases in 21 tries, Damon was 18-for-19.

In 2006, I’d rather have Damon, even though he can’t throw at all…

I am not sure how he arrived at that conclusion but whatever. Here’s how Coco compares based on actual, sophisticated mathematical projections.

Damon (2005): .316/.366/.439
Crisp: .321/.370/.466 (ZIPS) .299/.357/.467 (PECOTA)

So according to the most sophisticated projection systems that are publicly available, the Red Sox have not only not regressed at the positions Donaldson references, but they have actually improved at each. But hey if Donaldson wants to surmise that the Sox offense might take a hit, there’s an argument to be made. Projections are just that – projections – and there is room for human observation going into a given season. But Donaldson has this to say at the outset of the piece…this isn’t an observational column but instead an attempt at statistical analysis.

A statistical comparison — you know that the stat geeks reign supreme at Fenway these days — of the ‘06 Sox to last year’s lineup, on a position-by-position basis, seems to indicate that this year’s team packs less offensive power than the ‘05 bunch.

See, he called it a “statistical comparison,” not me, and even took a potshot in the process. And boy did he ever embarrass himself.

Josh Beckett - $4.325 million
Curt Schilling - $13 million
Bronson Arroyo - $3.5 million
Matt Clement - $9.5 million
Jon Papelbon - $326,000
David Wells - $4 million
Tim Wakefield - $4 million
Total: $38.651 million

That’s the amount of guaranteed money owed to the guys the Sox have under contract for 2006. This doesn’t count easy-to-reach incentives for Wells, Wakefield, and Clement.

Of course, Wells is gone after 2006. And the Sox can wish Wakefield adieu at their whimsy, but that doesn’t answer the obvious question…are we going to a seven man rotation?

To knock this down to six, the obvious question is “which one of these guys is the easiest to get rid of?” This would of course be the man with options, and the one making the league minimum. Despite probably being the 3rd or 4th best pitcher in the organization right now, Papelbon gets to eat on Federal Hill for the better part of his summer.

That leaves us with: Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Bronson Arroyo, David Wells, Matt Clement, and Tim Wakefield.

Locks for the Opening Day rotation are Beckett, Schilling, and Wakefield. Beckett and Schilling because of their ability to lead staffs into the World Series (count the ringzzzz bitch!), and Wakefield because the Jimy-lead knuckleballer in relief experiment seems to be extinct.

Snark aside, the real reasons you will see those guys pitching the first three games of the Red Sox season should be obvious. You have the Young Stud guy that you just traded for, and are hoping will be a Red Sox for a while in Beckett. Schilling and Wakefield aren’t going anywhere, which I think is pretty self-evident.

That leaves two spots for David Wells, Matt Clement, and Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo was promised he can’t be traded I guess, which means he’ll remain in the organization. Wells and Clement have been the subject of trade rumors. Arroyo has been subject of demotion (to the minors) rumors.

Therefore, there are only a finite number of combinations for the two spots, assuming the Red Sox uphold their word to Arroyo:
Arroyo
Clement
Wells traded

Arroyo
Wells
Clement traded

Clement
Wells
Arroyo bullpen

Each presents their share of problems, all of which relate to the list I gave you at the beginning of the article. Clement is worth $9.5 million a year over the next two, and he has a fair number of escalators in his contract based on games started. Theoretically, if he hits on these escalators, his contract could go from 2yr/$19 million to 2yr/$21 million. Although this amount is small to the Red Sox (at least small enough to make them easy to reach) this limits the amount of teams that the Sox can trade him to, given the level of his base salary. Plus, I’m not ready to give up on Clement anyway. I wasn’t the biggest fan of his signing, but it’s not like he is the worst pitcher signed to a $20+ million contract in the 2004-2005 off-season. He can be useful in his averageness, since the Sox can obviously afford him.

David Wells has a similar problem on a larger scale. If Wells is the league-average inning eater in 2006 that he has been for a while, than you are also paying him $9 million for the privilege. Add in that he’ll miss a few starts a year due to various health problems, and is somewhere around 94 years old, he is a much bigger risk to have around than Clement is.

Arroyo just signed a contract with the Red Sox. Do you want your longman making $4 million per year? Waste of resources, no? I mean, it’s not like there are a shortage of people that can come in and pitch in the pen. Arroyo as one of the league average guys at the back of the rotation is a good gamble (see: Clement, Matt and Wells, David). Signing him to a cost-controlled 3 year contract and stashing him to teach Julian Tavarez the guitar is folly.

So, what does this all mean?

It means that Arroyo to the pen is actually a pretty bad option. I would guess the worst of the three. This is before looking at the projected bullpen
Mike Timlin
Keith Foulke
Julian Tavarez
Rudy Saenez
David Riske

This is before talking about Rule V-er Jamie Vermiylea, recently-traded-for Jermaine Van Buren, Craig Hansen, and Manny Delcarman. Also the pen lacks a lefty, so if you assume Lenny DiNardo makes it in that role, the bullpen has plenty of depth. Add Arroyo into that mix, you go from depth to overkill.
That leaves a trade for Clement or Wells. As it’s been shown, it hasn’t been easy to move either gentleman. There are financial problems (I know the Sox have gone on record saying they don’t like paying guys to not play for them), perceived mental problems (Clement) and physical problems (I’ll let you figure out which one) that will drive down the price to the point where it is not worth it for the Red Sox to trade either one.

What’s the point, you ask me, as I’m on my 3rd single spaced page of doing nothing more than organizing my thoughts? The point is because of the inability to trade either man (Wells or Clement) for something resembling good value, there is a good chance both of them break camp for the Red Sox. This pushes Arroyo into the pen, where cheaper, younger players will be discarded further, be it the babes in Pawtucket, Vermiylea back to Toronto (which would be a waste of $25,000 taking him in the first place), or Van Buren back to Kinderhook. Now, chances are that as teams shake out in spring training, they will realize they need another pitcher (I’m looking at you, Dodgers) and they might think Wells/Clement is sexy-sexy. But until that happens, we’re looking (cliché alert!) down the barrel of an overloaded gun.

Now, if we sign Clemens…

We hardly knew ye.

To make room for González on the 40-man major league roster, the Sox, as expected, designated first baseman Roberto Petagine for assignment, which gives the club maneuvering room while trying to work out a deal in the next seven days for Petagine.

Roberto Petagine is probably the third best hitter in the organization, and has been since he signed. That he never got a real shake to log regular playing time will always represent a black mark on Sox management as far as I am concerned. He leaves now while John Flaherty occupies a spot on this roster, a fitting end to Petagine’s mismanaged time as a Boston Red Sox. Anyway, good luck to him…wherever he plays this year, you can bet he’ll hit. Remember this when Tito is straight platooning J.T. Snow come mid-May or so.