What are we gonna do with all these starters?
Josh Beckett – $4.325 million
Curt Schilling – $13 million
Bronson Arroyo – $3.5 million
Matt Clement – $9.5 million
Jon Papelbon – $326,000
David Wells – $4 million
Tim Wakefield – $4 million
Total: $38.651 million
That’s the amount of guaranteed money owed to the guys the Sox have under contract for 2006. This doesn’t count easy-to-reach incentives for Wells, Wakefield, and Clement.
Of course, Wells is gone after 2006. And the Sox can wish Wakefield adieu at their whimsy, but that doesn’t answer the obvious question…are we going to a seven man rotation?
To knock this down to six, the obvious question is “which one of these guys is the easiest to get rid of?” This would of course be the man with options, and the one making the league minimum. Despite probably being the 3rd or 4th best pitcher in the organization right now, Papelbon gets to eat on Federal Hill for the better part of his summer.
That leaves us with: Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Bronson Arroyo, David Wells, Matt Clement, and Tim Wakefield.
Locks for the Opening Day rotation are Beckett, Schilling, and Wakefield. Beckett and Schilling because of their ability to lead staffs into the World Series (count the ringzzzz bitch!), and Wakefield because the Jimy-lead knuckleballer in relief experiment seems to be extinct.
Snark aside, the real reasons you will see those guys pitching the first three games of the Red Sox season should be obvious. You have the Young Stud guy that you just traded for, and are hoping will be a Red Sox for a while in Beckett. Schilling and Wakefield aren’t going anywhere, which I think is pretty self-evident.
That leaves two spots for David Wells, Matt Clement, and Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo was promised he can’t be traded I guess, which means he’ll remain in the organization. Wells and Clement have been the subject of trade rumors. Arroyo has been subject of demotion (to the minors) rumors.
Therefore, there are only a finite number of combinations for the two spots, assuming the Red Sox uphold their word to Arroyo:
Arroyo
Clement
Wells traded
Arroyo
Wells
Clement traded
Clement
Wells
Arroyo bullpen
Each presents their share of problems, all of which relate to the list I gave you at the beginning of the article. Clement is worth $9.5 million a year over the next two, and he has a fair number of escalators in his contract based on games started. Theoretically, if he hits on these escalators, his contract could go from 2yr/$19 million to 2yr/$21 million. Although this amount is small to the Red Sox (at least small enough to make them easy to reach) this limits the amount of teams that the Sox can trade him to, given the level of his base salary. Plus, I’m not ready to give up on Clement anyway. I wasn’t the biggest fan of his signing, but it’s not like he is the worst pitcher signed to a $20+ million contract in the 2004-2005 off-season. He can be useful in his averageness, since the Sox can obviously afford him.
David Wells has a similar problem on a larger scale. If Wells is the league-average inning eater in 2006 that he has been for a while, than you are also paying him $9 million for the privilege. Add in that he’ll miss a few starts a year due to various health problems, and is somewhere around 94 years old, he is a much bigger risk to have around than Clement is.
Arroyo just signed a contract with the Red Sox. Do you want your longman making $4 million per year? Waste of resources, no? I mean, it’s not like there are a shortage of people that can come in and pitch in the pen. Arroyo as one of the league average guys at the back of the rotation is a good gamble (see: Clement, Matt and Wells, David). Signing him to a cost-controlled 3 year contract and stashing him to teach Julian Tavarez the guitar is folly.
So, what does this all mean?
It means that Arroyo to the pen is actually a pretty bad option. I would guess the worst of the three. This is before looking at the projected bullpen
Mike Timlin
Keith Foulke
Julian Tavarez
Rudy Saenez
David Riske
This is before talking about Rule V-er Jamie Vermiylea, recently-traded-for Jermaine Van Buren, Craig Hansen, and Manny Delcarman. Also the pen lacks a lefty, so if you assume Lenny DiNardo makes it in that role, the bullpen has plenty of depth. Add Arroyo into that mix, you go from depth to overkill.
That leaves a trade for Clement or Wells. As it’s been shown, it hasn’t been easy to move either gentleman. There are financial problems (I know the Sox have gone on record saying they don’t like paying guys to not play for them), perceived mental problems (Clement) and physical problems (I’ll let you figure out which one) that will drive down the price to the point where it is not worth it for the Red Sox to trade either one.
What’s the point, you ask me, as I’m on my 3rd single spaced page of doing nothing more than organizing my thoughts? The point is because of the inability to trade either man (Wells or Clement) for something resembling good value, there is a good chance both of them break camp for the Red Sox. This pushes Arroyo into the pen, where cheaper, younger players will be discarded further, be it the babes in Pawtucket, Vermiylea back to Toronto (which would be a waste of $25,000 taking him in the first place), or Van Buren back to Kinderhook. Now, chances are that as teams shake out in spring training, they will realize they need another pitcher (I’m looking at you, Dodgers) and they might think Wells/Clement is sexy-sexy. But until that happens, we’re looking (cliché alert!) down the barrel of an overloaded gun.
Now, if we sign Clemens…
Take a look at Dayn Perry’s article on Baseball Prospectus yesterday about this very issue. Long story short, between age, injury and ineffectiveness, the Sox are just fine with their glut of starters.
If the biggest problem they have is that Beckett/Schilling/Clement/Wakefield/Wells all make 30 starts, then they’ll probably win 105 games and cruise to a division title
The problem is, like much of BPro’s writing, that he doesn’t look at the whole issue.
The Red Sox could do things like carry all six starters, putting Arroyo in the bullpen, but he seems to suggest Papelbon will be in the pen also.
So now the Red Sox have a 13 man staff? Unless the Sox start to cut relievers like Saenez, there is no reason to believe that Arroyo/Papelbon will be relievers. That’s the problem with gaurenteed contracts, you have to actually honor them.
Mentioning the “shaky pen” just shows how deep Perry looked at the issue. There are far less question marks with the Sox pen than with say…the Yankees.
Your point is valid, the point you aren’t exploring is the likelihood of injury. Schilling, Wells, Wakefield and Timlin are all 40+. Seanez, Foulke and Beckett both have to be considered significant injury risks. IF everyone is healthy, Arroyo is in the ‘pen and Papelbon in Pawtucket to start, the fact is by May 1, someone on that staff is going to be on the DL.
At WORST, the starters stay healthy, Seanez, Riske, Timlin, Tavarez and Foulke all stay healthy and effective and we don’t have room for Papelbon. This is neither likely nor problematic in my view. Seanez in particular is someone I wouldn’t be surprised to see jettisoned if he goes Alan Embree on us.
As for the Yanks, if one more person tells me they’ve upgraded their bullpen, I’m going to throw up. That staff is a disaster waiting to happen. If the Unit gets hurt, they could allow 850-900 runs this year.
… and if the Unit doesn’t get hurt, they could allow 825-850 runs this year. He is not their answer, since he can’t play the outfield, second base, or DH.
I don’t understand how the Yankees can play horrible baseball for 3 months, make no changes except to replace an aging center fielder with an aging center fielder, and suddenly they’re the ‘99 Indians. Doesn’t make sense.
Joe, I think we’re talking about something different though, since the threat of injury is real.
My problem is that these guys aren’t likely to get hurt in spring training. It could happen, but it’s not likely. Anyway, when the team breaks camp, there is going to have to be a plan in terms of pitching staff construction. Injuries are something you fix when they happen, by doing things like calling up Papelbon. You can’t shoe horn a starter into the bullpen because Beckett’s blisters are going to act up.
I think there is a plan; Arroyo in the ‘pen, Papelbon in Pawtucket. I’d prefer to see Jonathan here but as long as we get 100-125IP out of him at some point, I’m not going to worry about it.
More importantly, I expect Wells to be gone by April 4th.
Sean O – they aren’t the 99 Indians but they can hit. Johnny is MUCH better than what Bernie was last year. Having said that, they are going to have problems stopping other teams from scoring against them. The flip side of your question is “how can the Yankees be unstoppable for 3 months, add one of the two best centerfielders in the AL to their lineup and not be expected to win 110 games?” — I don’t think that’s going to happen, but it’s just as good a question as yours is.
I guess I’m really leery about Damon outside of Fenway, and specifically in Yankee Stadium. This year is going to prove whether or not Damon really is an excellent player, since he’ll have to completely change his approach at that park. Instead of a slap hitter who aimed for the wall, now he’s going to have to either become a solid linedrive hitter (with every year, some grounders go for outs instead of hits as he slows), or a real pull hitter. If he can adjust, good for him, but if not he’ll have a horrific season.
And Matsui / Damon with a 399′ left-center alley? ouch.
Mark my words on the 9th day of Feb. 2006. Jonathon Papelbon WILL BE in the Sox rotation for this season. Just remember.
I don’t think that’s really going out on a limb though. It’s pretty forgone that he’ll be in the rotation somewhere.
As for the Arroyo in the pen/Papelbon in AAA, I agree that’s the course most likely to be taken, but it’s the least effiecent since:
1. You have to cut a gaurenteed contract to make room, or go with a short bench.
2. Are keeping a goodish starting pitcher in the bullpen for guys that aren’t much better, but sure are older and more expensive.
I don’t like the idea of having the pitching staff wait out an injury to become effiecent.