Philadelphia Phillies
2005: 88-74, 2nd in the NL East

Projected Lineup
SS Jimmy Rollins
2B Chase Utley
RF Bobby Abreu
LF Pat Burrell
1B Ryan Howard
CF Aaron Rowand
C Mike Lieberthal
3B David Bell

Projected Rotation
Jon Lieber
Brett Myers
Ryan Franklin
Cory Lidle
Ryan Madsion

Closer
Tom Gordon

Outlook
And all the villagers said, “What are we to do without Ji

Jim Thome.”

In the kick off of our team preview series, I’ve referenced the Simpsons and The Dugout, which is a good start I think. The Phillies jettisoned the biggest free agent signing in franchise history to Chicago’s South Side, admitting that it probably wasn’t the best idea to give a player like Jim Thome a six-year contract.

For the three years the Phillies owned the rights to Thome they were competitive enough, winning 260 games. However, the cost of those teams to win 86 games a year with Jim Thome was $61 million. You see, the Phillies paid $39 million in salary to their savior, and then wanted so badly for him to play for someone else; they are giving the White Sox $22 million over the next three seasons. All that money spent only to win 86 games a year with Jim Thome.

I am probably being slightly unfair, as Thome was the best hitter on the team in 2003, and the second best in 2004 before Ryan Howard deemed him expendable. But part of the problem with investing so much money ($85 million at the time of the signing) in a first baseman in his thirties is that it’s not easy to move him when his salary outpaces his production (hence eating $22 million), and if you happen to have a young, talented player in that position, he’s going to waste in AAA (hence Ryan Howard). Not only that, in the death spasms of the Ed Wade era, he generally complained about the lack of payroll flexibility to build a pitching staff. I’m wondering if using that $13 million a year would have been better served finding someone who can throw the baseball. In a related story, Ed Wade doesn’t have a job right now.

Thome is a very good baseball player, and from all accounts, one of the nicest guys in baseball. That’s great, but that doesn’t excuse a baseball man from throwing money at a player surely not to be worth it by the end of the contract. I know he was hurt last year, but immobile baseball players get hurt when they are 35. This isn’t exactly earth-shattering news.

Year one of the post-Thome era opens under new management with the hiring of Uber-GM Pat Gillick. Gillick presided over two World Series champions in Toronto, a few very good Baltimore franchises, and a Seattle team that had a good run. He’s adored by the observationally-minded of us out there, and generally either treated with antipathy or apathy by the performance-minded. One thing that does bear mentioning with his track record is that he generally takes a pretty good team, makes it better, and then as soon as he leaves, the team collapses something fierce. Word of warning for you Phillie Phaithful out there…the Phillies will reach new levels of suck when Gillick gets bored and walks away from the team. Probably just in time for the next Marlins World Series winner.

Gillick is inheriting/building a pretty strange team right now. Last year, the Phillies were second in the National League in scoring offense, and 10th in scoring defense (just to clarify, that’s runs/game scored and allowed). Things really aren’t what they seem though. Citizen’s Bank Park is particularly hellish on pitchers, increasing offense 16% (when you take away games into account, offense is increased 5.2%). If you tease out the park affects, the Phillies drop from almost 5 runs a game (4.98) down to 4.7 (which drops them to 3rd in the NL). In raw amounts, the runs go from 807 down to 767. By this same analysis, the Reds lose 8 runs, the Cardinals gain 7, and the Rockies lose 91. On the other side of the ledger, the Phillies make up 36 runs, going from 726 to 690, which is good for sixth in the Senior Circuit.

What was the point of all that? The Phillies face the same problem of all teams in an extreme park. They underestimate the weaker standing and overestimate the stronger one. This leads to a misallocation of resources usually, such as the Phillies spending the better part of the offseason trying to move Thome and get some pitching.

The best part about moving Thome is that it opens up a lineup spot for reigning NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard. Howard can do some studly things like completely dismantle pitching through Godly amounts of power, and he walks enough to keep pitchers honest. His strikeouts are pretty high, whiffing about once every three at bats, but that’s not the most concerning part of his repertoire. There is little chance that Ryan Howard will develop into an MVP-level player, despite the Era of Good Feelings he is bringing.

Right now, Howard has 351 at bats in the majors. At age 26. Other 26 year olds with more at bats are: Garrett Atkins (616), Hee Choi (915), Humberto Cota (405), Michael Cuddyer (993) and David DeJesus (831). This doesn’t count players like Coco Crisp, Adrian Beltre, Adam Dunn, anyone under the letter D, or the pitchers that are 26 and have a longer MLB track record. Unfortunately, Howard is more likely to have a Ron Kittle career than a Willie Stargell, due to the fact he just didn’t play until he was 25.

Up the middle, the Phillies are solid, with another oldish star-in-the-making playing second in Chase Utley, and the enigmatic shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Even when you take park into consideration, it’s not easy to find a second baseman that slugs .540 and gets on base almost 40% of the time. He’s not the best with the glove, but he’s not really bad either. His only real problem is that he’s 27 this year, so the chances of him being a superstar are about the same as Howard’s (Utley is older, but has more experience and has a higher baseline.) Rollins is still working on a 36 game hit streak that really saved his season.

Which brings me to this question: What do you think the media coverage will be like if Rollins hits in his first 10 games or so? The streak is still alive, but he’d be working on 46 games at that point and you could say DiMaggio’s streak would be in serious jeopardy at that point. My guess would be that the media would hound him with questions about the legitimacy of working on a 57 game hitting streak, while taking five months off in the middle. I would say that it’s every bit as legitimate as any other streak. Back to the task at hand, David Bell is a horrible baseball player, and Charlie Manual would do well to think about starting just about anyone else there. Except Alex Gonzalez. Stay away from him at all costs (I’m looking at you Theo).

For what seems like the last 100 years, Mike Lieberthal has been backed up by Todd Pratt. Tank (I guess that’s his nickname) has moved on to Braver pastures, playing guardian and drug keeper-awayer to Brian McCann. Pratt is a fun guy to watch, as far as backup catchers go and he’s replaced by possibly the only one more fun, Sal Fasano. If Fasano wasn’t a backup catcher, he’d be the annoying guy in the office that just told you the story about how he met James Gandolfini for the 50th time. As for Lieberthal, one can only assume that he hated the Jon Lieber signing a year ago since it took his “Liebs” nickname. That’s about the only interesting thing about Lieberthal other than his destruction of my fantasy team when he tore his knee. I make it my promise to bring that up every year until Lieberthal retires.

One of the funniest subplots of last season was that Bobby Abreu didn’t really get national recognition as a great baseball player until he won the home run derby by hitting something like 2454436513 home runs. All from a guy who isn’t really a home run hitter, and has legitimately been one of the best players in baseball in the National League for half a decade. Now, some people have noticed his awesomeness, due to the Phillies paying him a good amount of money for a while. 2005 saw some regression of Abreu, mostly in the power department as he went into a length slump after the All Star break, but he was still one of the better hitters in the National League. He also won a Gold Glove with his bat, which is always nice.

Last year, I said that time was running out for Pat Burrell to establish himself as anything more than a overhyped, pretty good player. He e-mailed me to say “shut up, internet geek! I will hit .281/.389/.504 and carry my team’s offense while Chaz Manuel is reluctant to play Howard and Abreu flails at pitches. I hate you!”

I just made that up.

Aaron Rowand was the schwag the Phillies paid to get rid of Jim Thome, and he’s a pretty interesting player. He really doesn’t hit righties well enough to play every day as a hitter, but he really crushes southpaws. And he might be one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, which raises the question if it’s enough to cover his shortfall against 70% of the pitchers in baseball? A guy like Rowand has value to almost every team, but they are basically replacing Jason Michaels with him (despite Michaels sticking around until January). Rowand is entering the back part of his prime, and will probably have enough value to be the second or third best centerfielder in the East.

The Phillies are continuing recent tradition of going into April with a bunch of guys that waiver between 5% of league average and pitch 200 innings. Ryan Madison has a nice live arm, and was one of the better relievers in baseball a few seasons ago. Cory Lidle is still Cory Lidle. Lieber is still Lieber.

The two interesting members of the Phillies rotation are Bret Myers and Ryan Franklin, but for completely different reasons. Myers finally put it together last year and was probably would have had a Cy Young showing (in the top 10 or whatever, not the winner) if the season ended in June. He will definitely be the ace of the 2006 Phillies and might have one of those seasons that people take notice of (18-5, 3.40 rather than last year’s 13-8, 3.72).

Ryan Franklin will go on the disabled list this year, I’m guessing by May 1st, due to acute whiplash in his neck. Pencil him in for 40 HR allowed if he throws 200 innings. I get perverse pleasure from this, pitchers who are homer-prone going to home run parks. My dream would be for Eric Milton to pitch in Colorado.

The bullpen was the bane of Ed Wade’s existence. This year will probably be more of the same, with Arthur Rhodes, and Rheal Cormier playing canasta in between trying to get lefties out. The northpaws in the pen are pretty much unknown, I guess. I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that camp will separate the chaff from the worse chaff a bit. Robinson Tejada is good, I guess. Cole Hamels and Gavin Floyd have been guys to watch forever and either or both might make the pen. Just as likely is that they go to Scranton for a few months.

In the back is Flash (AHHHAH!) Gordon, pitching for his 52nd team and will be pointing to the sky 30 times replacing Billy Wagner. That is if he can stay healthy. Joe Torre rode him pretty hard the last two seasons, and he is 38 years old. Whatever. At least he can get guys out.

The Phillies are facing the closing of their window to win something of note. Soon, the Abreu/Burrell core will be too old to carry teams, and because of an organizational reluctance to hand the keys over to the kids in an effort to win 86 games again, Utley and Howard will be complementary players not soon after. Gillick has done a good job of treading water, which might be enough to steal 2nd place from either the Mets or the Braves, and sneak into a wild card with the NL West being horrible, and the NL Central being schizophrenic. What’s closer to the truth is that the Phillies probably don’t have the horses and will spend their 4th straight year as pretty good

Prediction: 86-76

Top 10 Prospects
1. Gio Gonzalez LHP
2. Cole Hamels LHP
3. Welinson Baez 2B
4. Daniel Haigwood LHP
5. Mike Constanzo 3B
6. Greg Golson OF
7. Michael Bourn OF
8. Jason Jaramillo C
9. J.A. Happ LHP
10. Tim Kennelly 3B