Texas Rangers
2005: 79-83 3rd in the AL West

Projected Lineup
LF David Dellucci
SS Michael Young
CF Brad Wilkerson
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Hank Blalock
DH Phil Nevin
RF Kevin Mench
2B Ian Kinsler
C Rod Barajas

Projected Rotation
Kevin Millwood
Adam Eaton
Vincente Padilla
Kameron Loe
Juan Dominguez

Projected Closer
Francisco Cordero

Outlook
Given ESPN’s non-stop coverage of the “overhaul” of the Boston Red Sox, the rise of the Toronto Blue Jays, and the attempt to maintain the crown by the New York Yankees, you’d think that maybe there’s little going on outside of the AL East. Rather quietly, the Texas Rangers had a rather impressive off-season, though it remains to be seen whether or not the new-and-improved Rangers are good enough to pass the Angels and Athletics … or whether they’re even good enough to win outside of the cozy confines of Ameriquest Field.

The biggest news from Arlington wasn’t the trade of Alfonso Soriano for Brad Wilkerson, but the announcement that wunderkind Jon Daniels was the new GM. Daniels set about to reform the Rangers in his mold, starting with the aforementioned trade of Alfonso Soriano. Soriano, a 30-30 threat with poor plate patience and pour(ous) defense, was blocking top 50 prospect Ian Kinsler, and isn’t exactly a favorite of the performance-analysis crowd. Showing an acumen rare in new GMs, Daniels knew exactly who to call: Jim Bowden. Bowden’s never been shy about his fondness for the toolsy players, and jumped at the opportunity to acquire Soriano (even though he didn’t have a position for him). Daniels was able to acquire solid CF Brad Wilkerson, who was admittedly coming off of a very down year, along with OF Termell Sledge. Wilkerson shores up what has been a weak spot for the Rangers, as Laynce Nix has simply never developed an offense to go along with his defense (not to mention his constant presence on the DL).

Daniels moved from his acquisition of Wilkerson straight onto fixing the Rangers’ achilles heel—starting pitching. He acquired started Vincente Padilla from the Phillies for a player to be named later. Daniels signed AL ERA champion Kevin Millwood, and traded aging prospect Adrian Gonzales (blocked by potential MVP Mark Teixeira), surprising young pitcher Chris Young, and the recently acquired Sledge for Padres starter Adam Eaton and reliever Akinori Otsuka. All of a sudden, the Rangers had at least the appearance of a real rotation to go along with their ever-present offense.

The trio of Millwood, Eaton, and Padilla isn’t going to strike fear in the hearts of opposing offenses, but it’s certainly better than trotting out a staff that had four pitchers make double-digit starts with ERAs greater than 5.50. Millwood is a bit of an enigma, but is generally going to give you 200 innings of above average pitching. Eaton has yet to hit league average production over a full season, but he’s still young (28) and he doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his arm. Padilla is two seasons removed from his last good season, but, again, he’s not Chan Ho Park. The rotation will be rounded out by youngsters Kameron Loe and Juan Dominguez, who had very successful auditions in late 2005. The staff actually runs a bit deeper, with R.A. Dickey (now throwing a knuckleball alongside the “Thing”), Joaquin Benoit, and even John Wasdin around to fill in for ineffective or injured starters. Things are certainly better in the starting pitching department than they were a season ago.

One suprising strength of the Rangers over the past few seasons has been its bullpen, though that wasn’t as true in ‘05. With injuries (Frank Francisco) and ineffectiveness (Brian Shouse, Doug Brocail), the Rangers’ bullpen wasn’t much better than its starters. Still, they’re anchored by flamethrowing closer Francisco Cordero (37 saves and 79 Ks in 69 IP), and should see a positive bounce with the acquisition of Otsuka and the benefit of having some of the starting pitching depth adding some talent to the bullpen (Benoit and Wasdin were both fairly effective out of the pen in ‘05). This pitching staff certainly isn’t as good as the As or the Angels, but it’s better than the staff that gave up 858 runs in 2005.

The Rangers hitters pound the crap out of the ball. Well, at home, at least. Away from Arlington, the team is much less scary. Things are looking up for Rangers fans—with Soriano gone to Washington, only Hank Blalock has a really amazingly bad home/away split. The rest of the Rangers hitters are certainly better at home than away, but not nearly with the serverity that the team has seen in recent seasons. The offense is paced by Michael Young and Mark Teixeira, two of the best young hitters at their positions in all of baseball. Young has likely moved into the top 3 SS in the AL, quite possibly passing Derek Jeter to trail only Miguel Tejada. Playing in Texas, with boppers like Teixeira and Blalock, Young has toiled in some obscurity, but he’s proven to be a quality ballplayer and has a chance to make some noise on the world stage in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Teixeira, he of the of the annoyingly difficult name to spell, had a breakout season in 2005, showing up all over the leader boards, winning a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. Hank Blalock continues to hit like an All-Star at home (20 HRs, 895 OPS) and like Pokey Reese on the road (5 HR, 611 OPS). At age 25, and with three full seasons under his belt, he’s entering the time where he needs to become a complete player or the Rangers will likely start looking for a replacement. The infield is rounded out by rookie Ian Kinsler. Kinsler has put up solid offensive lines in the minors, and the Rangers have finally given him a chance to prove his worth at the major league level. It’s quite possible that the Rangers could have a double play tandem that will hit a combined 50 HRs, even without Alfonso Soriano. Rod Barajas bats 9th, catches the ball behind the plate, and hits 20 HRs. He doesn’t need to do much else to be one of the better offensive catchers in the AL (even if his career OBP is an anemic .278)

Across the outfield, the Rangers have Dave Dellucci, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench, with Gary Matthews playing the role of super 4th OF. Dellucci had a mini-breakout season at age 31. He’s one to expect some regression from, but he’s had back-to-back nifty seasons for Texas, so his regression to the mean might not be as hard a fall as some are expecting. Wilkerson has 35 HR potential in Texas, and if he can improve his contact rate at all, he’ll once again be a solid offensive player, given his high walk rate. If he’s healthy, he should easily produce as much as Soriano did, while giving the team better defense. Kevin Mench has found his niche: a poor fielder who hits for power and walks a bit, who would be better as a 4th outfielder but isn’t awful as a starter. The DH is Phil Nevin, who was god-awful last season, is now 35, and has always been fragile. Reports are that he’s come into camp in shape and looking great, but that’s what they always say about old players during spring training. If Nevin is particularly bad, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dellucci moved to DH and Matthews moved into the starting lineup.

It’s hard to see how the Rangers could be worse than last season’s near .500 finish. They improved the pitching staff—not enough to win the division, but enough to be competitive. They lost Alfonso Soriano, but replaced him with two players (Wilkerson and Kinsler) who should replace his offense. Even with some regression from players like Dellucci, Barajas, and Matthews, this team is still a good bet to score 825-850 runs. It won’t be enough, but this will be a competitive team and a good, young base for Jon Daniels to build on.

Prediction: 82-80

Top 10 Prospects
1.John Danks LHP
2.Thomas Diamond RHP
3.Ian Kinsler SS
4.Eric Hurley RHP
5.Edison Volquez RHP
6.Taylor Teagarden C
7.Jason Botts 1B
8.Joaquin Arias SS
9.Armando Galarraga RHP
10.John Mayberry Jr. OF