Much like Sully did earlier, I’ll be throwing in double duty on two teams who probably don’t deserve such short shrift, but I can’t bring myself to get energized to type much more about them.

Baltimore Orioles
2005: 74-88 4th in the AL East

Projected Lineup
2B Brian Roberts
C Ramon Hernandez
3B Melvin Mora
SS Miguel Tejada
DH Javy Lopez
RF Jay Gibbons
LF Jeff Conine
1B Kevin Millar
CF Nick Markakis

Projected Rotation
Rodrigo Lopez
Erik Bedard
Kris Benson
Daniel Cabrera
Bruce Chen

Projected Closer
Chris Ray

Outlook
Honestly, this team isn’t that bad. Sure, they’ve got Kevin Millar, Jeff Conine, and Nick Markakis starting (since I’m assuming even the O’s are smart enough not to start Corey Patterson). If it’s not rookie phenom Markakis, it’ll be Luis Matos who, when healthy, is a pretty mediocre hitter–but he might be just mediocre enough to make up for it with his glove. Kevin Millar is also a pretty mediocre hitter–but he plays 1B where being mediocre is a crime. The sooner the O’s can get Javy Lopez to 1B, and anyone to DH, they’ll be better off. Jeff Conine, at 40, is pretty much the same hitter he’s always been. He’s upped his OBP a bit to compensate for the decrease in his SLG, but he’ll give you average performance for 400 ABs a season. That’s not necessarily what you want out of a corner OF, but he’s just a placeholder for Val Majewski.

The rest of the offense is really pretty good. Mora’s late career bloom has been a pretty great thing to watch, and it was funny when he sold his octuplets to the circus. Miguel Tejada is one of the two best SS in baseball. Brian Roberts, before he got the super contacts, was a pretty crappy little player. Then he became superman. I’m betting on something in between. Gibbons, Lopez, Hernandez … these are all guys who aren’t holes in your lineup. It’s a thin team, but they’ll score enough runs to be competitive.

The question: Can the pitching staff keep them in games?
The answer: I have absolutely no clue.

Rodrigo Lopez saw a drop in his K rate, and a spike in his ERA. He’s probably a little better than he showed last season. Chen, Cabrera, and Bedard are all starters who’ve got pretty good stuff, but iffy control, and that tends to cause some variance in their performance. The O’s acquired newly single Kris Benson to fill out their rotation–and he fits in nicely in the “good stuff, iffy control, mediocre performance” staff they’ve created. They let B.J. Ryan walk to Toronto, but youngster Chris Ray looks like a good facsimile.

The Orioles will go as far as their big off-season acquisition carries them. If Leo Mazzone can turn this staff into Atlanta north, this team might be good enough to win 85 games–even in the AL East. If Leo Mazzone turns out a staff that looks like last year’s staff, well, they might get passed by the Devil Rays.

The upshot is that, win or lose, there is a good chance they’ll all get a chance to ride the Anna Benson Express.

Prediction: 74-88 (yes, the same as last season)

Arizona Diamondbacks
2005: 77-85 2nd in NL West

Projected Lineup
CF Eric Byrnes
SS Craig Counsell
LF Luis Gonzalez
RF Shawn Green
3B Chad Tracy
1B Conor Jackson
C Johnny Estrada
2B Orlando Hudson

Projected Rotation
Brandon Webb
Orlando Hernandez
Miguel Batista
Russ Ortiz
Claudio Vargas

Projected Closer
Jose Valverde

Outlook
Is it ok to say I hate this franchise? Other than defeating the Yankees, there’s nothing to like about this franchise. They continually suck, their previous management went about building a team in about the most annoying and dishonest way possible (well, this side of Wayne Huizenga), and they made me look stupid last year, even though I predicted Russ Ortiz would be the worst FA signing ever.

It looks like the Dbacks are trying to change things, brining in Josh Byrnes and some of the recent Sox braintrust. On the other hand, it also looks like Byrnes is content to punt this season. His outfield is probably the worst defensive outfield in baseball. I guess that’s not so bad given that most of the balls heading towards the fence in this park, against this pitching staff, are going to be going over the fence not landing in front of it. Green and Gonzalez are both aging, oft-injured players who are rapidly descending into averageness and beyond. Eric Byrnes is already beyond average. He’s crap. Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson at the corners could be a very nice thing for the Snakes, assuming Tracy is for real (he’s not) and Jackson develops (he will). Craig Counsell might be the worst all around SS in baseball, complemented by Orlando Hudson, whose range beyond 2B is the only thing that will keep Brandon Webb from killing himself.

Speaking of Webb, the pitching staff is a weird amalgam talented youngish pitchers (Webb, Vargas) and older, not as talented pitchers (Hernandez, Batista). And Russ Ortiz, the single worst FA signing in the history of baseball (worse than Chan Ho Park, because Park’s signing came when teams were still not paying attention to statistics — everyone knew that Ortiz sucked). Ok, maybe that’s a bit harsh towards Ortiz, but in my defense, he did kill my great uncle in a circus accident.

The only reason to pay attention to Arizona is to watch when they give up and start playing Drew, Upton, and the rest of their stellar prospects. I’m betting July.

Prediction: 70-92

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
95-67, 1st place AL West

Projected Lineup
3B Chone Figgins
CF Darin Erstad
RF Vladimir Guerrero
LF Garret Anderson
1B Casey Kotchman
DH Juan Rivera
2B Adam Kennedy
SS Orlando Cabrera
C Jeff Mathis

Projected Rotation
Bartolo Colon
John Lackey
Jeff Weaver
Kelvim Escobar
Ervin Santana

Projected Closer
Francisco Rodriguez

Outlook

All off-season I have been clamoring to anyone that will listen that the Angels’ time is up and that Oakland will now reign supreme out West. I think I am still comfortable with this contention but upon closer inspection of this Angels squad, they are still pretty good. Their offense is not going to scare anybody but then, they didn’t last year either. Besides, I think there is ample reason to believe that this offense can improve a bit over 2005’s version while the pitching should once again be remarkable, though probably not quite as good as last year’s. Angels fans are a proud lot. The stat crowd always overlooks their team and all the Angels do is continue to win. I picked the A’s last year and I am going to pick them again this year, but this isn’t to say I am down on the Angels organization. I just believe that they will experience a growing pains-year of sorts in 2006.

Offensively, the Angels won’t be very good, but they may very well improve upon last year’s numbers. Darin Erstad moves off of first vase, where the Angels were dead last in the American League for first base OPS by a long shot in 2005. Depending on what you think of Casey Kotchman, the Angels will be anywhere from better to much much much better in 2006 at first base. At second and short, Adam Kennedy and Orlando Cabrera return. The OC is a bad baseball player, and Kennedy is no great shakes either. The sooner Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick can materialize, the better for Halos fans. The invaluable Chone Figgins will take the full-time reins at third and should be fine there. In the outfield, Garret Anderson is done, done and done. Maybe four kinds of done, I’m not sure. He no longer slugs the way a valuable player would need to in order to carry that low on-base but remember, we are talking about a team getting ready to hand DH at-bats to Tim Salmon so if you don’t think G.A. has generated enough goodwill in Anaheim for another 600 plate appearances or so, you are really low-balling the way Angels management values warm fuzzies. Speaking of which, Darin Erstad is slated to bat second. Jeff Mathis will be the full-time catcher, and though I believe he will be a very good player, I am not sure he is there yet. The lineup’s one, surefire producer, Vladimir Guererro returns and will play right field. He is a perennial MVP candidate and about the only hitter that allows this lineup to even hang around in games. All in all, I see the lineup picking up runs at first and in center field, maybe a few more at DH and then giving back a few at catcher, where Bengie Molina had a pretty good year in 2005. They will be better, but not by much, and not by enough to carry the squad to a division crown.

The pitching is the strength of this team but it figures to regress a bit from 2005. Bartolo Colon, despite being one of the least deserving Cy Young candidates in recent memory, still had one whale of a year in 2005, one I don’t believe he is capable of replicating. Colon had the lowest walk rate of his career at the age of 32. It looks like an anomaly from my vantage point, and I would suspect he would settle back into career norms. Colon is not as bad as he looked in 2004, and is not quite as good as he was last year. John Lackey will probably be Los Angeles’ best starter. Lackey will throw more than 200 innings, strike out damn near a batter every frame and if he can pull a Colon-like slashing of his walk-rate, he immediately enters Halladay/Santana territory amongst AL hurlers. I would say it’s not all that likely but he is still young enough to be making such improvements. As is, Lackey still figures to be a rock-solid item in the rotation. Even though I believe the Angels made the right decision in letting both Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd walk, they will have a tough time filling in the 382 innings of 3.49 ERA pitching the two contributed in 2005. Jeff Weaver was a nice snag, but he is the very personification of a dead-average innings eater. Kelvim Escobar is certainly capable but banking on more than 150 innings from him would be foolhardy. Ervin Santana certainly has the stuff but is he ready to put it all together at the age of 23? I am not sure. With Jeff’s younger brother Jered waiting in the wings, the Halos feature a capable replacement should someone go down or falter badly. The Angels have a very good rotation, but one that will probably fall short of last year’s in terms of performance.

Everyone knows the story of the Angels bullpen. It’s very good, and they even managed to add a few arms in Hector Carrasco and J.C. Romero. With holdovers Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Shields and Brendan Donnelly back, manager Mike Scioscia can feel comfortable any time he has a lead after the sixth or so. He will also have a deep bench at his disposal. Edgardo Alfonso and Robb Quinlan still should have some good swings left in them, while Jose Molina, the team’s second string catcher, is one of the very finest defensive backstops around. Macier Izturis is a darn good utility infielder. With organizational vision, Scioscia may have even better options. Kendry Morales is probably already the franchise’s best choice for designated hitter, Howie Kendrick the best 2nd Baseman and don’t think we have heard the last from Dallas McPherson. If Angels management is quick to demote under-performing veterans, they will be well-served.

2006 may be a small step back for the Angels but this is a team with a bright future. In Ervin Santana and John Lackey, they have two hard-throwing studs to anchor their rotation in the coming years while a bevy of tremendous position player prospects mature into contributors. This season, however, there may be a small hiccup. The incremental gains the Halos should see on the run-scoring side will in all likelihood be mitigated by a starting rotation that will see more of its hard knocks than it did in 2005.

Prediction: 85-77

Top 10 Prospects:

1. Brandon Wood 2B
2. Howie Kendrick 2B
3. Jered Weaver RHP
4. Kendry Morales 1B
5. Jeff Mathis C
6. Erick Aybar SS
7. Nick Adenhart 2B
8. Joe Saunders LHP
9. Tommy Mendoza RHP
10. Steven Shell RHP

Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith of the Baseball Analysts were kind enough to invite Cliff Corcoran of Bronx Banter and me to participate once again in their Two on Two series previewing the American League East.

Check it out.

Since we are a little behind schedule and nobody really cares about these two teams anyway, I am gonna pull some abbreviated, double-duty today….

Cincinnati Reds
73-89, 5th place NL Central

Projected Lineup
SS Felipe Lopez
2B Rich Aurilia
CF Ken Griffey, Jr.
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Scott Hatteberg
RF Austin Kearns
C Jason LaRue

Projected Rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Brandon Claussen
Eric Milton
Dave Williams

Projected Closer
David Weathers

Outlook

Sigh. What the hell is there to say? This team could just not be any more lost, and new General Manager Wayne Krivsky doesn’t seem to understand how to address the problem. I tip my cap to him for locking up Adam Dunn to a 2-year extension, and finally handing a full-time gig to Austin Kearns deserves mention. But after that…there just isn’t much to like about this club. First, they acquired Tony Womack. Sought him out, decided they needed him and pulled the trigger for a 36 year-old that posted a 47 OPS+ for the Yankees last season. Second, they acquired Scott Hatteberg, also 36, who posted a 79 OPS+ last season. Oh and did I mention he is a first baseman? If you asked me at the beginning of this off-season which two players I would consider to be the least desirable in baseball, I think Womack and Hatteberg may have ranked two and three respectively on my list (obviously John Flaherty would have been #1). And yet, the Reds went out and snagged both guys. Worse still, they are going to start Hatteberg, and even gave up on a 24 year-old with Hall-of-Fame comps so that they could make room for him. Yes they acquired Arroyo in the deal but no way would Krivsky does that trade without believing Hatteberg is a viable full-time option. Fortunately for Reds fans, Womack, at least at this point, appears to be buried behind Lopez, Aurilia and Freel for middle infield duties. Still, the lineup will hit. It led the National League in runs scored last season and figures to be up there again.

The problem of course with the Reds is that they can’t pitch. No sense in going into it in much detail. There is no reason to believe they will crack the top-10 in the NL in run prevention, and this once again will make them a 70ish-win club.

Prediction: 71-91

Houston Astros
89-73, 2nd Place NL Central, Wild Card Winner, NLCS winner

Projected Lineup
CF Willy Tavares
2B Craig Biggio
1B Lance Berkman
3B Morgan Ensberg
LF Preston Wilson
RF Jason Lane
SS Adam Everett
C Brad Ausmus

Projected Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Brandon Backe
Wandy Rodriguez
Ezequiel Astacio

Projected Closer
Brad Lidge

Outlook

With a core of stars like the Astros have and coming off a World Series appearance, I should have a warmer, fuzzier feeling about this squad then I do. Lance Berkman is one of the finest hitters in the game, Oswalt and Pettitte two of the very best starters and Brad Lidge is just about as good as it gets nailing games down. Ensberg, Wilson and Lane are a formidable trio of supporting sluggers in Houston’s lineup but after that, this team gets a little ugly. Looking over the guys from whom they will be counting on for major contributions, there are just too many of them that can’t get it done. Willy Tavares sucks, Craig Biggio is more or less done, and neither fact has dawned on Phil Garner. These two should lead the team in plate appearances, to boot. Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus also are offensive dead weight. The 1, 2, 7, 8 and 9 spots will drag this lineup down night in and night out, to the point where you wonder how they will ever win with any of their back-3 starters taking the hill.

And that’s the thing about the pitching too. Two great hurlers in Oswalt and Pettitte, a helluva good closer in Lidge but then what? A couple of nice bullpen arms in Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler but not much more. Handing Backe, Rodriguz and Astacio the ball every fifth day and then just kind of hoping for the best is no way to pursue a repeat NL championship. This Astros club could be so much more, but too much carelessness addressing some key parts will hold it back.

Prediction: 78-84

San Francisco Giants
2005: 75-87 3rd in the NL West

Projected Lineup
CF Randy Winn
2B Ray Durham
LF Barry Bonds
RF Moises Alou
1B Lance Niekro
3B Pedro Feliz
SS Omar Vizquel
C Mike Matheny

Projected Rotation
Jason Schmidt
Matt Morris
Noah Lowry
Matt Cain
Brad Hennessey

Projected Closer
Armando Benitez

Outlook
This is a tough team to project. Last season, the Giants were pretty bad. They had the second worst offense in the National League (actually, second worst in all of baseball). Even in SBC Park, that’s not a good thing. Of course, the Giants were without their best player for all but about 50 plate appearances last season. The offense was lead by Ray Durham and Moises Alou, the only two players to put up above average lines in near-full seasons of action (Randy Winn had a fantastic half-season after arriving from Seattle). But, what can you expect when exactly one player in your regular lineup is under the age of 30 (and said player, Jason Ellison, is looking like he might be a 5th outfielder this season).

Brian Sabean has an age issue. He likes, let’s say, mature offensive players. When healthy, this lineup of mature, finely aged players will score runs. However, how often will the lineup of 41 yo Bonds, 39 yo Alou, 39 yo Omar Vizquel, 35 yo Mike Matheny, and 34 yo Ray Durham actually be healthy? How often will they be able to play in long stretches of back-to-back games without taking a night off? When you’re offense depends on contributions from Mike Matheny (.242/.295/.406), Omar Vizquel (.271/.341/.350), and Pedro Feliz (.250/.295/.422), does it matter?

This offense comes down to one player, and one player alone: Barry Bonds. This team is dependent on one player, and one player alone: Barry Bonds. Brian Sabean’s legacy as a GM is dependent on one player … well, you get the picture. The Giants will go as far as Bonds’ reportedly acne-scarred back will take them. If he stays healthy, has 500 PA, and doesn’t get suspended, the Giants will probably add 100 runs to their 2005 total, just from Bonds alone! In 2004, Barry Bonds created 184 runs in a near full-season of action. In 2005, Michael Tucker and Jason Ellison created 70 runs combined. A normal Bonds season should easily double their production. A normal Bonds is probably a 10-win swing – he’s normally a 12-15 WARP-type player; Ellison and Tucker were worth roughly 3 WARP. Even just an average Bonds season is probably worth at least 5 wins to the Giants.

There are only a couple of changes to the Giants offense, Bonds aside. Randy Winn is back for a full season, and hopes to build on the amazing performance he put up after arriving from Seattle (a Bonds-like .359/.391/.680). He’s stretched a bit in CF, but his bat is more than enough to carry the position, even if he doesn’t hit as well as he did last season. Sabean fulfilled his old player off-season acquisition quota by getting Steve Finley to be the 4th OF. Finley sucked last season (to put it mildly), and at 41, isn’t a good bet to bounce back. Jason Ellison lurks behind, waiting for one of the decrepit outfielders to break a hip or choke on metamucil. Finally, 1B has been given to Lance Niekro, who sadly, does not throw knucklers around the diamond. Niekro had a somewhat disappointing 2005, and at 27, has got to breakout, or fear losing the position to prospect Travis Ishikawa at some point in the next season or so.

Suprisingly, for a front office that eschews first round picks by signing crappy free agents, the Giants have put together a fairly good young crop of pitchers. Noah Lowry is the 3rd starter in name only, as he was the best starter on the team last season, and doesn’t look to be slowing down. He’s now got about 270 IP under his belt at age 25, and saw his K/9 rate spike up to just over 7 last season. That spike came with a small spike in his BB/9 rate as well, which is the only knock on his record. But, having a high walk rate is something a pitcher can generally get away with in SBC Park. With a small increase in his control, Lowry’s looking like a solid anchor for the Giants rotation.

If Lowry is the ace in practice, Jason Schmidt is the ace in name. Coming back from an injury, Schmidt might finally be showing some wear and tear on his well-used arm. His walk rate increased to an alarming 4 per 9 innings, which is simply too high to be effective. Like Lowry, if Schmidt can increase his control a tiny bit, he’ll be infinitely more valuable to the team. The Giants big off-season acquisition is former Cardinal Matt Morris. Morris is a fairly predictable pitcher. He won’t strike a lot of guys out, but he also won’t walk a ton, and he’ll probably be 5-10% better than your average pitcher. His numbers should look ok in San Francisco, and he’s definitely an improvement on Brett Tomko. The staff is rounded out by youngsters Matt Cain and Brad Hennessey, both of whom saw action last season. Neither looked stellar, but Hennessey should throw about 200 league average innings, which is pretty darn good for a cost controlled guy at the end of your rotation. Matt Cain is a stud and is projected as the future ace of this rotation. It remains to be seen whether or not he’s ready for that label, but he’s ridiculously young and has pretty well proven himself in the minors at this point.

Armando Benitez was injured much of last season, and when healthy, was his normal scary self. Still, he’s talented enough to be an effective anchor for the bullpen. Along with Benitez are veterans Jeff Fassero, Tim Worrell, and Steve Kline. At this point in their careers, none of these guys are great bets to be anything more than passable arms. Tyler Walker was last season’s Benitez insurance, and performed similarly, right down to the scary walk rate and ability to give up bombs even in limited action. The only young arm with any upside in the bullpen is Scott Munter, but his peripherals are awful. His saving grace is being a groundball pitcher in a pitcher’s park. Unfortunately for Munter, he’s now inducing groundballs into a defense that is the combined age of the Golden Girls.

If healthy, as ancient as they are, this team will win somewhere in the neighborhood of 88 games, which might be enough in the NL West. If this team loses Bonds, Winn, Durham, or Alou for any significant period of time, they’ll win 75 games again, and be looking up at everybody but the Diamondbacks and Rockies.

Prediction: 85-77

Top 10 Prospects
1.Matt Cain RHP
2.Merkin Valdez RHP
3.Eddy Martinez-Esteve OF
4.Travis Ishikawa 1B
5.Marcus Sanders 2B
6.Daniel Griffin RHP
7.Jonathan Sanchez LHP
8.Kevin Frandsen 3B
9.Nate Schierholtz OF
10.Pablo Sandoval 3B

In a nifty little snag that could pay big dividends for the 2006 Sox and beyond, Boston claimed Hee Seop Choi off of irrevocable waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Choi, something of a SABR-darling, has never fully been trusted with a full-time role and in all likelihood will not see full-time duties here. Not yet, at least. He has shown the ability to absolutely pound the baseball but does not come without questions. He has struggled famously against southpaws, and Dodger fans will be quick to point out the “holes in his swing.” He struggles with fastballs on the inner half and can look silly when he is behind in the count and the hurler has him where he wants him. C’est la vie, I say, when you are dealing with a relatively young player that has not been afforded an opportunity to work such things out. He is 27, sports a career 107 OPS+, has hit righties at a .253/.357/.461 clip since 2003 in some of the most spacious parks in baseball and has good hands at first.

Here’s the rub. Last season the Red Sox also employed a foreign first baseman who could really hit, had a shaky defensive reputation and for one reason or another had seemingly been blackballed by the “baseball men” from coast to coast. Management never found a role for Roberto Petagine, who was blocked by lesser players in Kevin Millar and John Olerud. Unfortunately, although the characters have changed, a similarly frustrating experience could very easily unfold.

Right now, Hee Seop Choi hits righthanded pitchers better than any corner infielder the Red Sox have. For what it’s worth, ZIPS has Choi at .251/.358/.461 this season and PECOTA has him at .264/.364/.490, and those projections have him playing home games in Dodger Stadium. He should play every time a righty takes the hill and either Kevin Youkilis or Mike Lowell, probably Lowell, should be relegated to the short end of a right/left platoon with Choi. But you and I both know that this won’t happen, not to start the season as it should and probably not even all that soon after. That’s because not only are Lowell and Youkilis in place but Choi is also going ot have to leap frog J.T. Snow, who, if not altogether useless at this point in his career, is damn close. Snow is eminently likeable, a class act by all accounts with a good glove who will be happy in whatever role he plays with the Sox. Terry Francona, if he hasn’t already, is going to fall head over heels for the guy. I can see it now…the Boston media has a new Korean to poop all over, and a crappy veteran has the potential to block not only Choi, but also Kevin Youkilis. It could be a long, long season for Red Sox fans that acually take the time to understand the game.

On the other hand, it could be a gloriously enjoyable year if the bench parts are used optimally. This is shaping up as just a wonderfully deep and resourceful roster. If Wily Mo Pena gets every at bat he ought to and Hee Seop Choi every plate appearence he should see, then this Sox team is going to be just a bear to deal with. But if Terry Francona and Sox management eschew the two youngsters with worlds of potential for the aging trio of declining veterans, Mike Lowell, J.T. Snow and Trot Nixon, then the Sox are going to leave a good amount of runs and wins on the table.

Your move, Tito.

Minnesota Twins
2005: 83-79, 3rd in the AL Central

Projected Lineup
LF Shannon Stewart
2B Luis Castillo
C Joe Mauer
DH Rondell White
CF Torii Hinter
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
3B Tony Batista
SS Jason Bartlett

Projected Rotation
Johan Santana
Brad Radke
Carlos Silva
Kyle Lohse
Scott Baker

Projected Closer
Joe Nathan

The prevailing sentiment that I gather from listening to the media, prognosticators and baseball pals in the know is that both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians have left the Twins in the dust. After all, both clubs won over 90 games last year and while I wouldn’t characterize the Pale Hose as young, I would characterize their General Manager Kenny Williams as relentless and not particularly interested in giving up his post atop the AL Central. The Indians are young, feature a competent General Manager of their own and do not seem to be going anywhere for a number of years. So that’s it for the Twins? Really? Well let’s think about this. They won 83 games last season with a pitiful offense, to which they have added Rondell White, Luis Castillo and perhaps the still promising Jason Kubel, and discarded or demoted Jacque Jones, Nick Punto, Juan Castro and Luis Rivas. The pitching staff will see the arrivals of Scott Baker and uber-prospect Francisco Liriano, while Brad Radke will try and regain his 2004 form. The Twins are a team with incremental improvement potential all over the diamond, and I happen to believe they are a good bet to take back their place atop their division.

So let’s take a look at where and how the Twins may see some improvement. We will take a look at what the Twins got out of a particular player or position in 2005, and compare it to what PECOTA has in store for whoever will be out there in 2006. Let’s start with left field and Shannon Stewart, who had his worst season since the Clinton administration in 2005. He is just 32, and I am not ready to write him off.

Shannon Stewart 2005: .274/.323/.388
Stewart 2006 (PECOTA): .276/.330/.399

I happen to believe this projection looks awfully conservative. For his career, Stewart is a .300/.364/.441 hitter, and I see him more or less splitting the difference between his 2005 and career numbers.

Jacque Jones signed with the Cubs, which in all likelihood shifts Michael Cuddyer to right field with Tony Batista taking Jones’ at bats. Obviously, it is tough to portend improvement here. Terry Ryan’s acquisition of Batista was mystifying at best but it does appear Batista will be starting the season playing everyday. There is hope in the form of Jason Kubel that Batista could be relegated to bench duties but with Kubel struggling to come back from an ACL tear this Spring Training, that possibility appears to be something of a pipedream at this point.

Jacque Jones 2005: .239/.319/.438
Tony Batista PECOTA: .245/.282/.419

Rondell White will take Matthew Lecroy’s at-bats, and though many are down on the White acquisition, I think he should provide a bit of improvent. White has been a consistently solid corner outfielder over the past 10 seasons or so and doesn’t show signs of slowing. Something along the lines of .340/.475 is perfectly doable for White.

The Twins will improve the most at middle infield, where guys like Juan Castro, Nick Punto and Luis Rivas all saw significant time last season. Jason Bartlett, this year’s full-time shortstop, was no great shakes himself but he never was handed the job and therefore was unable to hit his stride. He is a much better player than he showed last season. At second base, the Twins traded for Luis Castillo, one of the very best defensive second basemen in baseball and a reliable on-base man to boot. It was a move that I believe may prove to be the most significant of the off-season in the AL Central.

2005 Twins Second Basemen: .256/.320/.345
Luis Castillo PECOTA: .299/.374/.364

2005 Twins Shortsops: .235/.283/.325
Jason Bartlett PECOTA: .271/.339/.393

Michael Cuddyer and Torii Hunter are both known quantities at this point and should more or less replicate their respective decent 2005 campaigns. Where the Twins can expect to see more improvement, however, is from their two young sluggers, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer took a huge stride last year, asserting himself as one of the game’s very best catchers. Morneau took a step backwards but at just 24, can reasonably be expected to bounce back.

2005 Joe Mauer: .294/.372/.411
Joe Mauer PECOTA: .298/.360/.451

2005 Justin Morneau: .239/.304/.437
Justin Morneau PECOTA: .270/.336/.493

The Twins scored just 688 runs last season, and time and again their offense squandered tremendous pitching performances by guys like Johan Santana and Carlos Silva. I do not necessarily foresee the Twins morphing into a powerhouse overnight but I do see potential for significant improvement.

On the pitching side, the Twins are as rock solid as anybody. With Cy Young favorite Santana anchoring the front of the rotation, the promising Scott Baker holding the back end down and Brad Radke and Carlos Silva in the middle, this rotation will again be one of baseball’s best. I do question why the Twins saw fit to offer Kyle Lohse arbitration, particularly with Francisco Liriano chomping at the bit for a regular turn, but I believe natural selection will play itself out here. Ron Gardenhire won’t be able to resist replacing Lohse with Liriano for too long. The bullpen is also loaded with good arms. Liriano starts the season out there, and Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain will be back to set up the dominant Joe Nathan.

The Twins had no problem keeping runs off the board last season and in that respect, I can’t imagine this season will be much different. It will be much different, however, on the offensive side and it is for this reason that I believe too many people are sleeping on the Twins.

Prediction: 89-73

1. Francisco Liriano, LHP
2. Scott Baker, RHP
3. Matt Garza, RHP
4. Jason Kubel, OF
5. Anthony Swarzak, RHP
6. Jay Rainville, RHP
7. Matt Moses, 3B
8. Glen Perkins, LHP
9. Kevin Slowey, RHP
10. Denard Span, OF

Be sure to read Mullet’s recently posted Nats preview, I just want to post my reaction to yesterday’s deal.

Just so we are clear on what the Red Sox have managed to acquire, here is my summation of Wily Mo’s past, present and future.

What Wily Mo Pena Has Been To Date:

- A below average hitter with out-of-this-world power (he has hit a home run every 15.53 plate appearances since 2004).
- A free-swinger that lacks any sort of sensible approach at the plate (he sports a career .303 on-base percentage)
- A brutal outfielder. One of the very worst in baseball according to many of the advanced metrics.
- A lefty masher. He has hit .276/.347/.536 against southpaws since 2003.

What Wily Mo Pena Is at the Moment:

- 24 years old.
- Big, strong, fast and possessor of one of the very best outfield arms in baseball. And yet, a terrible fielder.
- The best platoon partner the Sox have ever had for Trot Nixon.
- Cost controlled
- In need of development in order to become an average everyday ballplayer.
- In need of serious development in order to become a good everyday ballplayer.

What Wily Mo Pena Can Be:

- Just check his comps. Jesse Barfield, Rocky Colavito, Bobby Bonds, Harmon Killibrew? Pena could well be a superstar.
- A total flameout, niche role player who could never develop enough patience at the plate or enough of a clue in the outfield to become a good Major League Baseball player.

As for the value aspect of the deal, I love it. Boston dealt from a position of strength in order to acquire something of which they had very little, right handed power. Bronson Arroyo is a valuable entity, but the Sox had a bunch of guys that can do what he does. The most compelling part of the deal is just how many areas of the team this trade addresses. They have Trot’s platoon partner now, and by extension, one of the best right field situations in baseball. They have someone with experience in leftfield and centerfield as well so when Manny and Coco need breathers, Terry Francona has a viable option. There has been talk about Pena playing some first too, but I don’t see it. He’s raw enough as is and to ask the guy to learn a whole new position may be too much. Finally, Pena may very well be their righty masher of the future.

More than ever, Francona has to be flexible with his roster. He doesn’t have the etched-in-stone nine he had in 2004 or that he thought he had in 2005. His disinclination to utilize Roberto Petagine and Kevin Youkilis last season was disappointing, but he has another deep roster in 2006 and has a chance to show he can grow as a manager. If Alex Gonzalez comes up in a critical, late inning situation, pinch hit for crissakes. If an opposing manager gets his LOOGY to face Trot, counter with Pena. There is an extra burden in this respect as well because if Pena is going to develop, he needs to play. Nothing would be more harmful to his future than Francona stubbornly deciding not to platoon Trot, the injury prone Nixon somehow staying healthy and Pena finishing up the season with 150 plate appearances. The guy needs to play, chiefly because he can help and secondarily because infrequent playing time will stunt his progress.

Anyway, kudos to the management guys in the basement. Now it’s time for the management guys in the dugout to make it work.

Washington Nationals
2005: 81-81 5th in the NL East

Projected Lineup
Disgruntled Alfonso Soriano
2B Jose Vidro
CF Ryan Church
1B Nick Johnson
RF Jose Guillen
3B Ryan Zimmerman
C Brian Schneider
SS Christian Guzman

Projected Rotation
Livan Hernandez
John Patterson
Ramon Ortiz
Brian Lawrence (injured) / Tony Armas, Jr.
Ryan Drese

Projected Closer
Chad Cordero

Outlook
Jim Bowden strikes again. Washington had a nifty little team, a little thin on pitching, but with some offensive potential (if they could ever rid themselves of the black hole known as Christian Guzman). Hot prospect Ryan Zimmerman hit a godly .397/.419/.569 in a late season 58 AB stint and looks ready for the full time job at 3B. Jose Vidro and Brian Scheider remain some of the better hitters at their respective positions. Jose Guillen hit well enough to play full time in a corner, and even better, didn’t assault anyone (that we know of). Ryan Church came up and hit well in a half-season stint, well enough to play the other corner and not hurt the team. Nick Johnson stayed healthy (for the most part) and finally had that 850+ OPS/15 HR season folks have been waiting for.

Unfortunately for Nationals fans, Brad Wilkerson had a bit of a down year in CF. Not a bad year, but he just didn’t put the ball in play enough, and his rate stats suffered. It looked like a flukey bad year, and certainly not a sign that he wasn’t fit to hold down a job for the Nats.

Well, Wilkerson isn’t toolsy enough for Jim Bowden. So he went and traded Wilkerson (and more) for Alfonso Soriano. Second baseman Alfonso Soriano. Where the Nationals already have stalwart Jose Vidro. Bowden said Soriano would play the outfield, even though Soriano has always fought against that idea. There’s no doubt that Soriano can hit. There’s also no doubt that he’s an awful 2B. But, he wants to play 2B and he’s shown no signs of agreeing to move elsewhere. “No worries,” said Bowden, “we’ll make it work.”

Yesterday, March 20th, Soriano was slotted into his first spring game after the WBC. He was in the lineup to bat leadoff and play LF. He refused to take the field, and now Bowden is talking about putting him on the disqualified list (or attempting to trade him). Trading him is probably the best option, except teams are going to rape Bowden like he’s Beecher in Oz. Everyone knows the Nationals need to move him, why pay full price?

Bowden’s folly in making this deal leaves the team hurting a bit. The team’s now looking at starting one of Dos Marlons (Marlon Anderson or Marlon Byrd), neither of whom is a particularly good hitter. The Nationals will still be starting the completely useless Guzman at SS, and now a mostly useless Marlon brother in LF. This team simply doesn’t have the offensive power to handle the loss of Wilkerson and Soriano, especially given that they scored only 639 runs in 2005 (I said they were a nifty team, not a great one).

The pitching staff is similarly thin. Livan Hernandez is a freak. He’s probably a better hitter than some of the folks the Nationals have on the bench. He also just keeps throwing about 250 innings of league average pitching every year. He’s helped significantly by his park (which kills offense like Lil Jon kills good hip hop), but he’s also helped by the fact that he’s fat and seems to never tire. I’ve given up trying to figure him out. John Patterson broke out with a solid season in 2005, and his peripherals give one hope that he’ll be able to produce similar numbers this season. He’s only 28 and there’s a chance that Patterson could quietly become one of the tier 1 / 1.5 type guys in the National League.

Here’s where the wheels fall off a bit. Ramon Ortiz is the 3rd starter, but he’s about 4 seasons removed from his last really good season, and is also about 4 years older than his listed age. Removing RFK from the situation, Ortiz is a good bet to suck and suck bad. Brian Lawrence would be one of the best #3 or 4 starters in the NL, and was a steal for Vinny Castilla, except he’s hurt and won’t pitch for a good while. That means Ryan Drese makes the starting rotation. Ryan Drese pitched OK at home, and awful everywhere else. He’s a bad pitcher. Bad. He’s not going to last the season, and will likely lose some starts to Sunny Kim/Zach Day/Jon Rauch. Washington fans, be excited! Finally, Tony Armas, Jr. (the second player in the major leagues to have four body parts in his name) rounds out the staff. He was bad last season, is always hurt, and has simply stopped striking anyone out. There’s a chance he could rebound, but it’s minute and it doesn’t matter since he’ll probably be hurt by May 3rd or so.

There’s a bright spot for Washington: Chad Cordero. He’s 24, strikes guys out, doesn’t walk many, and takes advantage of his home park to put up ridiculously filthy numbers. Even park adjusted, his numbers easily rank amongst the best in baseball. He won’t save 47 games again, not for this team, but if used wisely by Frank Robinson, could help keep this wretched pitching from being deplorable. The rest of the bullpen is similarly solid. Gary Majewski, Luis Ayala, Joey Eischen, and Mike Stanton are all good to great relievers who will be asked to throw a lot of innings this year. Quite frankly, that’s probably a best case scenario for this team.

The Nationals overachieved last year, having a bizarrely good season when their numbers said they should have won about 77 games. The offense got worse, with the loss of Wilkerson, the potential loss of Soriano, and the non-loss of Guzman. The pitching got worse, with the loss of Brian Lawrence, and the addition of Ramon Ortiz and more innings from Ryan Drese.

Just think, Jim Bowden could have been our GM. Enjoy Washington!

Prediction: 72-90

Top 10 Prospects
1.Ryan Zimmerman 3B
2.Kory Casto 3B
3.Larry Broadway 1B
4.Brendan Harris 2B
5.Bill Bray LHP
6.Clint Everts RHP
7.Mike Hinckley LHP
8.Justin Maxwell OF
9.Daryl Thompson RHP
10.Collin Balester RHP

Just came over WEEI, Bronson Arroyo traded to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena.

I’ll have more on this later tonight.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2005: 67-95 6th in the NL Central

Projected lineup:
CF Chris Duffy
SS Jack Wilson
1B Sean Casey
LF Jason Bay
RF Jeromy Burnitz
3B Joe Randa
2B Jose Castillo
C Ryan Doumit

Projected Rotation:
Zack Duke
Oliver Perez
Paul Maholm
Sean Burnett
Ian Snell

Closer:
Mike Gonzalez

Outlook
What is there really to say about the Pittsburgh Pirates?

The last winning season in Pittsburgh was in 1992. The Bucs have a small core group of fans, but nothing compared to their neighbors, the Steelers. They don’t even have a young, exciting player to draw people to the ballpark like the Penguins do with Sidney Crosby. The Pirates are in a perilous situation in terms of relevancy in their own city, let alone in the realm of baseball.

Ever since Ted Simmons picked Andy Van Slyke over Barry Bonds, the Pirates have been on a five year plan to get back to the top of the National League. Simmons resigned in 93, replaced by Cam Bonifay, Reaper of Souls. The Pittsburgh Associates group sold the team to thrifty (cheap) owner Kevin McClatchy in 1996. McClatchy presumably noticed that Bonifay was doing wacky things like giving Derek Bell a monied contract, and fired him a short five years after buying the team. Dave Littlefield inherited a mess, and has maintained the status quo.

Jim Leyland begat Gene Lamont. Lamont begat Lloyd McClendon. McClendon begat Pete Mackanin, who think was just a stuffed corps on the bench for the death spasms of year 12 of the five year plan (thanks, Cam). I’m not even a Pirates fan and I’m getting pissed off writing this. Mackanin was relieved of his baby sitting duties for exiled manager Jim Tracy, who did his best to help the situation in Los Angeles by not controlling the clubhouse and publicly feuding with Paul DePodesta.
For the 2006 season, the Pirates are doing the same thing they’ve done the last few years. They’ve signed cheap veterans, hopeful to trade them for sweet, sweet prospects at the trading deadline to the teams that care enough about baseball to actually put a product on the field that might win over 75 baseball games. They acquired Jeromy Burnitz, Sean Casey and Joe Randa for the lineup, despite having other options there, while leaving 2nd base in the hands of Jose Castillo. Burnitz and Randa are taking at bats from useful players like Craig Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. Well, in Sanchez’s case, I’ll say moderately useful. Burnitz and Randa do have one thing going for them: they have easily movable contracts.

The other player received in this whirl wind off-season was the trade that netted them Sean Casey. Casey gives them a local veteran, in a transparent attempt to get people to come to the ballpark without winning baseball games. The Casey acquisition really hurts the Pirates in some non-Casey performance ways. First is that the Bucs are paying $7.5 million to bring his averageness to Steel City. The other, is that Brad Eldred is left sitting in Nashville. But Casey is local, and doesn’t strike out. Screw the prospect. If Eldred thinks the same way I do about country music, the body count will probably be in the dozens. The one thing that Casey does have is that PNC is a perfect park for a left-handed line drive hitter. Given the slight rebound in his walk rate last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him actually come close to earning that dough.

Across from Casey is Proven Veteran Number Two Joe Randa. Last year, Randa was having a career year in Cincinnati at 35 before he was sent to San Diego for two minor leaguers and promptly died. As far as a plan B goes (Bill Mueller rebuffed their higher salary offer for more years from the Dodgers), Randa isn’t really a poor choice. It’s just an indictment on the Pirates that they haven’t been able to develop a 3b in their system since Aramis Ramirez became too expensive for them. The two ways to look at this is asking why they didn’t hold on to Ramirez to add some punch to the lineup since they didn’t have a replacement in the system. Another way is that they might have with Freddy Sanchez, who is 28 and cheap, and the Bucs are giving up on him after one season as a regular. It’s tough to sell a youth movement when you sign 36 year olds.

Up the middle, the Pirates have two of the worst hitters at their position in the National League. The 25-year-old Jose Castillo has no bat at all, and has had a tough time remaining healthy the last two years. Right now, his upside is locked into Billy Ripken without the bloodline, or maybe Joe Crede without the power. Jack Wilson will remain in baseball until he’s 40, just based on his well-deserved glove reputation and hitting .300 when he was 26. The Pirates are paying him $24.2 million until 2009 to try and be Mark Grudzielanek. That doesn’t include the completely inexplicable $8.4 million option for 2010.

There are two gentlemen fighting it out for the right to receive pitches thrown toward home plate, defensive reputation-having Humberto Cota and Ryan Doumit. While neither guy is going to win any silver sluggers, Doumit profiles as a better hitter, and has a better arm (Doumit threw out 40% of base stealers last year, vs. 28% for Cota). Cota has the superior rep, and has been in the league for longer, so it will be interesting if Jim Tracy forgoes the tangible edge that Doumit has.

The outfield is where the Pirates actually have some interesting players. Jeromy Burnitz is the same guy he always was, lots of power and strikeouts, some okay defense, and the most violent swing in baseball. After spending six years in Milwaukee, Burnitz has become a wanderer, with stops in New York, Los Angeles, Colorado, and Chicago’s North Side. Three years ago, there was the first serious downtick of his career, by posting a sub-.300 on base, which was buoyed by a .487 slugging. Last year in Chicago, he posted a poor .258/.322/.435 line. Thankfully for the Pirates, Burnitz is only signed for one year, after turning down a two year contract from the Orioles.

Joining Burnitz on the other side of the outfield is Jason Bay. Bay was one of the best hitters in baseball last year, languishing for the last place Pirates. This offseason, the Pirates locked him up (like they did with Brian Giles before him) until 2009 at the bargin price of $18.25 million. Despite making about $6 million less than Jack Wilson during this time, Bay’s nice, Canadian manners will keep him in line, eh.

In the middle is Chris Duffy, who came out of nowhere to post a pretty good season once they thankfully ended the Tike Redman experiment. Duffy, who didn’t make my list of the Pirates top 10 prospects last year, hit .340 and played a pretty mean centerfield. He’ll be 26 this year, and probably won’t hit .340 again, but a .290/.340/.400 line isn’t out of the question. This will make Duffman the third best hitter on the club. Duffman plays centerfield!

The before the last two years, the Pirates had spent five years taking pitchers in the first round of the draft. They started in 1999 and 2000 with high school teammates Bobby Bradley and Sean Burnett, then took three college pitchers, John VanBenschoten, Bryan Bullington (first overall pick), and Paul Maholm. Right now, they haven’t received much return on their picks, with only Burnett and Maholm expected to make the big club, VanBenschoten fighting serious injury problems, and Bullington profiling as a bottom of the rotation starter.

Besides Burnett and Maholm (Maholm is a lock, Burnett still has to win a job) the rotation figures to be Zack Duke, who pitched well but not nearly as well as his microscopic ERA would state, and the best of a bunch of uninspiring 5th starter candidates, which looks like Ian Snell right now. Snell has a good background in the minors, and is legitimately one of the Pirates best prospects, but it’s doubtful he’s anything more than a 3rd starter in his best season.

The ace of the staff (especially since Kip Wells’ arm finally exploded) is Oliver Perez, who has a maddening problem with keeping hitters from dropping their bats and trotting down to first. He was the scratch (with Bay) the Pirates received in the Brian Giles trade, and in 2004, responded with a great season. In 2005, he fought injury (never a good thing for pitchers with windups as violent as his), and saw his walk rate increase 65%, his strike out rate decline 23% and his K:BB decline 53%. Perez is only 24, so there is plenty of time to rebound, and it’s not catastrophic if he has an arm injury now. The only fear the Pirates should have with him is if 2005 is the trend and not the blip.

With their rotation a mess, the bullpen by extension is also all over the place. The only locks are Saloman Torres, Damaso Marte, Ryan Vogelsong, and Mike Gonzalez, with Gonzalez as the designated closer. Not exactly invoking memories of the Nasty Boys, but Torres can be effective, Marte is pretty good as long as he’s healthy and not pitching to David Ortiz, and Gonzalez is filthy. Sorry Vogs, I’m sure your family likes you.

In a weak NL Central, the Pirates will continue to push teams toward the Wild Card. This year should have more hope than previous campaigns, but only if they cash in their vets, Duffy and Bay continue to hit, and their young pitchers develop. Otherwise, decade two of Bonifay’s Five Year Plan will probably end up like Stalin’s.

Prediction: 74-88

Top 10 Prospects
1. Neil Walker C
2. Andrew McCutchen OF
3. Paul Malohm, LHP
4. Tom Gorzelanny LHP
5. Nate McLouth OF
6. Jose Bautista 3B
7. Ronny Palino C
8. Matt Capps RHP
9. Brent Lillibridge SS
10. Craig Stansberry 2B

Detroit Tigers
71-91, 4th place AL Central

Projected Lineup:
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
SS Carlos Guillen
RF Magglio Ordonez
1B Chris Shelton
DH Dmitri Young
C Ivan Rodriguez
3B Craig Monroe
LF Ivan Rodriguez

Projected Rotation:
Jeremy Bonderman
Kenny Rogers
Mike Maroth
Nate Robertson
Justin Verlander

There is genuine cause for optimism in the Motor City for the first time in a long time and the Tigers have arrived at this point by virtue of their ability to finally distinguish between a good baseball player and a bad one. It’s funny, but for all of the teeth gnashing about payroll discrepancies and the other matters of the sort, the biggest problem as I see it with the very worst teams is their inability to conceptualize just how debilitating very bad players can be to a team. Merely good, or even average players can help a lot. Think of the Red Sox. Let’s say a theoretical team full of dead average players would go 81-81 over a season. Well what if you replace on of those average players with David Ortiz? Then you’re what? Conservatively, an 85-win team? And then you replace another one of the average Joe’s with Manny Ramirez. And then another with Josh Beckett. You see the point. With each above average player, you’re inching closer and closer to 90, 95, 100 wins. So gone from the ugly Tigers of yore are guys like Shane Halter, Eric Munson, Wendell Magee, Chris Truby and Bobby Higginson while players such as Omar Infante and Nook Logan will have dramatically reduced roles. On the pitching side, no more Adam Bernero or Gary Knotts. It appears the Tigers have learned how to go and seek out guys that won’t devastate your ability to compete over a long season. Mix in a few very good players with these average filler types and all of a sudden you’re looking at a ball club. The Tigers will get a full season out of Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco and Chris Shelton, all good enough players to have key roles on a championship caliber club. With health, the Tigers may get a full season out of Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, two more players who can reasonably be relied upon for average-to-above average production. Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Justin Verlander will all look to make another stride developmentally while The Gambler will see if he can hang on for another season or two. Mike Maroth, well, don’t ask me how he does it – I realize he only throws 71 MPH – but at this point I think we all just have to accept that the guy can pitch a little bit. The 2006 Tigers are a team without holes, and I think it may surprise a lot of people just how far not having holes can take you.

Despite 908 combined plate appearances from Nook Logan (73 OPS+), Omar Infante (64) and Marcus Thames (78), Detroit managed to sport an average offense last season. Rondell White, who quietly continues to put up one solid season after another has skipped town for Minneapolis but Craig Monroe has the ability to approximate White’s production, or at least do so to the point that Granderson and Polanco taking at bats from Logan and Infante will more than off-set the downgrade from White to Monroe. For all of the praise I have directly or indirectly heaped upon Tiger’s management thus far, I don’t want to confuse ending up with a good baseball team with shrewd management. The Tigers boast two of the game’s most ridiculous contracts, in Magglio Ordonez’s and Pudge Rodriguez’s (and they added Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones this off-season). Magglio, if healthy, still might be able to be productive but Pudge is over and done with. If he didn’t have another 3 years, and $30 million left on his deal, it would be time. Heck if Pudge has any dignity at all, it may be time to cue up Sarah Brightman and Andrea Bocelli. In 2005, Pudge posted a .290 on-base, had just 11 walks and struck out 93 times. Pudge still hit for some power (.444 slug) but looked like a lost soul at the plate. At his age, I don’t see any reason why he would revert back to his old self. In my estimation, he will be Detroit’s worst regular. But that’s it for the bad news. Craig Monroe probably doesn’t have the offensive chops to hack it as corner outfielder but he won’t kill you out there either. Shelton, at 25, put up fantastic numbers and should do more of the same this season. Placido Polanco, overlooked time and again for one reason or another, finally gets his full-time crack. Polanco is a wonderful defender and well above average for a second baseman with the stick. He will still be the same player he has been for five years now, but this year he gets the star recognition he has long merited. Dmitri Young swings a pretty good bat too, and Carlos Pena seemed to take a big stride in 2005. All in all, it’s a very promising lineup. Pudge should stink but then so does every other catcher in baseball, Craig Monroe will be a bit below average but after that, this lineup is filled with above average hitters and should be able to improve upon the 100 team OPS+ it posted last season. The offense will be a real strength on this club.

The pitching situation is far more tenuous, but not without hope. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson both have it in them to improve upon their 2006 campaigns. The gleam may have worn off Bonderman a little bit but he is still just 23 and has a great arm. 200 average innings would be a nice step in the right direction for Jeremy. Robertson is just 28 himself, and over the last two seasons has become a reliable starter. The Tigers would be well-served if Robertson could make the leap from reliable to good. For the life of me I didn’t understand the Kenny Rogers signing but hey, what do I know? Maybe Rogers can piece together a couple more good seasons. I’ll believe it when I see it. As I said at the outset, I have given up trying to figure out Mike Maroth. He is what he is. He can’t break a pane of glass with his fastball but will notch 200 innings and have an ERA somewhere in the 4’s. That works with an offense this good. The wild card will be youngster Justin Verlander, a guy who had a lights-out minor league campaign in 2005 who will have to put it together at the Major League level for the Tigers to have a chance at threatening in a very competitive American League Central.

The bullpen is going to be a problem. Fernando Rodney can get it up there but after him, there is a precipitous decline. Todd Jones is going to suck. You know it, I know it but he still continues to get richer. After these two, it’s a bunch of warm bodies. Some live arms for sure in Wil Ledezma and Franklyn German, but nobody that has demonstrated any consistency. As for the bench, new manager Jim Leyland will find it hard to get much use out of anybody beyond Dmitri Young or Carlos Pena, whoever the odd-man out of the lineup is that day. I suppose Omar Infante and Nook Logan are ok bench items but neither is a very good player. Vance Wilson will back up Pudge.

Like the Red Sox, the Tigers are a team with a wide variance in potential outcomes for 2006. If Mags and Guillen miss a lot of time, a starter or two gets hurt, Kenny Rogers stinks and the Brandon Inge of 2002 and 2003 fame reappears, the Tigers probably won’t crack 75 wins. But if a lot of the things that have the potential to go well do in fact go well, then you can toss another team into the Cleveland / Chicago / Minnesota AL Central mix. For some reason I am getting a pretty decent vibe about this club, and think they will come a lot closer to the higher end of their possible outcomes than the lower. At the very least, the good people of the Motor City are going to have a legitimate baseball club to cheer on.

Prediction: 84-78

Top 10 Prospects:
1. Justin Verlander, RHP
2. Joel Zumaya, RHP
3. Brent Clevlen, OF
4. Cameron Maybin, OF
5. Tony Giarratano, SS
6. Humberto Sanchez, RHP
7. Jordan Tata, RHP
8. Kevin Whelan, RHP
9. Jeff Larish, 1B
10. Clete Thomas, OF

- So team USA lost last night, and has failed to advance to the World Baseball Classic semifinals. Is it unpatriotic of me to find amusement in the fact that Hee Seop Choi’s and Byung Hyun Kim’s team have been the story of the classic while Jason Varitek and Derek Jeter are going to watch them play for the World title this weekend? How confused do you think Bill Plaschke and Dan Shaughnessy are?

- Jon Papelbon’s struggles this pre-season have been well-documented but Jon Lester hasn’t exacty been lighting the world on fire. He was terrible again yesterday, allowing seven of the eleven batters he faced to reach base. I think some people may need to temper expectations and realize that, at best, it is going to take some time before either of these guys is a consistently good Major League starting pitcher. There was outrage when PECOTA forecasts came out and neither Papelbon’s nor Lester’s projections seemed all that favorable. Well that’s life for a young pitcher. Look at Mark Mulder’s rookie season, or hell, Chris Carpenter’s first six seasons!

- On the other hand, David Wells and Josh Beckett both looked excellent yesterday.

Link.

Hard to quibble with this but let’s just hope that Terry keeps an open mind, discusses strategy with some of the more forward thinking minds in the front office and then applies better and more sensible in-game tactics. As I see it, a manager’s job is to do three things: one, make sure the day-to-day workings of the club run smoothly. I happen to think Francona excels at this. Two, make sure that tactical decisions are well thought out. Francona is ok with this. He rarely wastes outs by too frequently sacrificing or attempting stolen bases but then I also happen to believe he struggles managing a bullpen. Finally, it is a manager’s job to ensure that the best players garner the majority of the playing time. Burying Roberto Petagine cost the Red Sox wins last year. As did sticking with Kevin Millar. Kevin Youkilis should have a whole bunch more big league plate appearances to his name than he does. It is here where Tito must improve; no messing around in the name of team chemistry, no trying to let Trot “work through” his struggles against southpaws (that ship has long since sailed). On each and every night, factor in matchups, injuries and fatigue and get your best on the field.

I like Francona, and believe he can continue to grow as a manager. Besides, there is something to be said for continuity, especially in the face of so much off-season turnover. Good move by the Sox.

Colorado Rockies
67-95, 5th in the NL West

Projected Lineup
CF Cory Sullivan
SS Clint Barmes
1B Todd Helton
LF Matt Holliday
3B Garret Atkins
RF Brad Hawpe
2B Luis Gonzalez
C Yorvit Torrealba

Projected Rotation
Jason Jennings
Aaron Cook
Jeff Francis
Byung-Hyun Kim
Zach Day

Projected Closer
Brad Fuentes

In 2004 and 2005, the Colorado Rockies posted their two worst campaigns since their inaugural two in 1993 and 1994. In 1995, they won the Wild Card under Don Baylor, making the franchise’s first ever post-season appearance. While I am not ready to portend such a leap this season for the Colorado Rockies, I do think there is reason to believe the team will make some strides. Whether it was by design or not, General Manager Dan O’Dowd decided to more or less stand pat in an off-season that featured a diluted free agent market. O’Dowd doesn’t really have the track record to merit the benefit of the doubt so he could have just failed to notice that it even was the off-season or that his team had won a mere 67 games last year but still, he played it right. With a squad that went 30-28 over its final 58 games and with its entire lineup except for one spot, its best spot, all simultaneously entering their primes, holding tight was exactly the right way to approach this off-season. O’Dowd did add Jose Mesa, who isn’t really my cup of tea but he is another decent arm to have in your pen. He also traded for Yorvit Torrealba, a talented catcher that has somehow or another managed to get lost in the shuffle over his three Big League seasons. It’s a team that should take positive steps over the next couple of seasons, and with impact prospects Ian Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki on the horizon, a club that could be a player again before too long.

Playing one of the league’s youngest lineups, Colorado’s offense finished 2005 with an OPS+ of 91, well below the league’s average. There were a number of reasons for this, but none more significant than Todd Helton’s slow start. Here’s how uncharacteristic Todd Helton’s first half of 2005 was. In 2002, Helton’s worst month was July, when he posted an .886 OPS. His worst month in 2003 was May. He had a .936 OPS. With a .902 OPS, May was once again his worst month in 2004. Here’s how he started last year:

April: .775
May: .853
June: .778

That’s right, his three worst months since the beginning of 2002 were, in order, April, June and May of 2005. Even though Helton is another year older, I think we can safely predict an improvement upon his overall 2005 numbers for 2006.

Another reason that Colorado’s lineup struggled a bit was that they employed a number of players that project to be bona fide Major League contributors who had not yet quite reached their stride. But take a look at the ages of the starting lineup for 2006.

Sullivan, 26
Barmes, 27
Helton, 32
Holliday, 26
Atkins, 26
Hawpe, 26
Gonzalez, 26
Torrealba, 27

Maybe these aren’t spectacular players, but they should all be peaking simultaneously. Seven spots in a lineup that net out to about average plus Todd Helton performing like Todd Helton equals a decent offense. Over 2005, the Rockies should see improvement from Helton, from Torrealba over the very bad Danny Ardoin and from Luis Gonzalez taking at bats away from the departed Aaron Miles. This is not a great offense, not by any stretch, but it is a functional one.

The Rox starting pitching should be its downfall. Jason Jennings and his 5-plus career ERA should not be headlining anything, much less a Major League Baseball club’s rotation. Aaron Cook strikes somebody out about as often as, well, every other time the pitcher’s spot in the lineup comes to the plate. I am convinced Cook could go a full 150 innings or so in the American League without a strikeout. Zach Day won’t help the cause too much and in Sunny Kim and Josh Fogg, Colorado hasn’t so much insured themselves as they have ensured themselves more dreadful starting pitching should one of the aforementioned be replaced. There are two bright spots. Jeff Francis is now 25 and will look to take another developmental step forward. I think he’ll be an asset for the club. Byung-Hyun Kim also will make an encore appearance in the Colorado rotation after an all-things-considered impressive 2005. Don’t laugh, Kim haters, the guy the Sox gave away for a hill of beans was only out-pitched on the 2005 Sox by Tim Wakefield in the rotation and Mike Timlin in the bullpen. Had the Sox retained his services – who knows – maybe they would have won their first division crown in a decade. Oh well, this is our hill. And these are our beans.

Colorado’s bullpen should be ok. Brad Fuentes should be one of the more reliable closers in the National League, and with guys like Ray King, Mike DeJean, Mesa and David Cortes, Clint Hurdle has enough to work with. As always with a Colorado bullpen, these guys will have to work. Hurlers a little further down on the depth chart like Chin-Hui Tsao and Scott Dohman should also be prepared to see action this season, especially if Ray King eats Jamey Carroll. Speaking of Carroll, Hurdle will also have a few dependable bench items. Jorge Piedra will be a good fourth outfielder and here’s to hoping the club sees fit to bring Ryan Shealy along to Denver. That guy can hit. Carroll will be the utility man and Danny Ardoin and J.D. Closser will vie for the backup catcher spot, though Eli Marrerro’s presence makes one wonder if there is even really a need for a full-time backup.

Don’t expect anything spectacular from the Colorado Rockies in 2006 but don’t anticipate doormat futility either. They have a young, functional offense, a solid bench, 40% of a starting rotation and a decent pen. I don’t think it will amount to much more than a six or seven game improvement but who knows? That’s a whacky division they play in and with the unbalanced schedule, maybe they have a crack at surprising a few teams.

Prediction: 73-89

Top 10 Prospects
1. Ian Stewart, 3B
2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
3. Ryan Shealy, 1B
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
5. Franklin Morales, LHP
6. Chaz Roe, RHP
7. Jim Miller, RHP
8. Chris Ianetta, C
9. Chris Nelson, SS
10. Juan Morillo, RHP

Seattle Mariners
2005: 69-93 4th in the AL West

Projected Lineup
RF Ichiro Suzuki
C Kenji Johjima
LF Raul Ibanez
1B Richie Sexson
3B Adrian Beltre
DH Carl Everett
CF Jeremy Reed
2B Jose Lopez
SS Yuniesky Betancourt

Projected Rotation
Jamie Moyer
Jarrod Washburn
Joel Pineiro
Gil Meche
Felix Hernandez

Projected Closer
Eddie Guardado

Outlook
After turning into the AL’s version of Brian Sabean, collecting as many overpaid veteran players as he could muster, Seattle GM Bill Bavasi pretty much did a complete 180 in 2005. Sure, he kept around some of the older veteran players, but he handed over CF to 24 yo Jeremy Reed, SS to 23 yo Yuniesky Betancourt, and 2B to 21 yo Jose Lopez. Sure, all three of these players put up pretty abysmal lines, even adjusting for the offense-depressing design of Safeco Field. Reed’s line of .254/.322/.352 is almost palatable, given that he grew into his role of fly catcher in the outfield, but Lopez and Betancourt’s respective sub-.300 OBPs and sub-.380 SLG put them pretty close to replacement level talent (with VORPs of 1.5 and 2.7, respectively). There is some upside here—Lopez, Reed, and Betancourt are all young, they are cheap, and they are arguably all solid defensive players. Reed, in particular, is a good bet to improve some upon his mediocre offensive line, given that he’s been a pretty solid hitter throughout his collegiate and minor league years (his knock was always whether or not his glove was good enough for centerfield, not his bat). Given that Reed was the off-season poster child for up and coming centerfielders desired by other teams, he’s the most likely of the three to develop into a salvageable major league player. Neither Betancourt nor Lopez have great track records, or anything in their history to suggest they’re ever going to be much better than they are now, though, admittedly, Betancourt simply doesn’t have a track record. In the end, this Seattle youth movement is going to have to be carried by the other bats in the lineup: whether it’s 2 or 3 replacement level hitters, Bavasi is going to have to load up the rest of his lineup to compensate.

That’s exactly what Bavasi tried in 2005. He brought in Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre on huge contracts. One of them paid off. Sexson was worth almost 4 times as much as Beltre was last season, putting together a season that probably ranked him amongst the top 30 hitters in baseball. And I give Bavasi credit for sticking with him, even as some of the Seattle faithful balked at his AL-leading 167 Ks. Beltre, on the other hand, played like he had a fork sticking out of his back, which is odd given that he was only 26 yo. Beltre’s 2005 fits much better into his overall career than his 2004 season did, so, in reality, Bavasi got what he paid for. If you’re keeping track at home, we’re now up to four regulars in the Seattle offense putting up below league average offense. Let’s make it five, as catcher was a black hole all season. Literally a black hole, sucking out the offensive talent of anyone who came near the position. Bavasi used much of the money I’ve paid to Nintendo over the years (Mario Kart is like crack) to bring in Kenji Johjima, the latest Japanese import. Johjima has shown some tremendous power in Japan, mixed with a good contact rate and iffy plate patience. It’s impossible to say how he’ll do in the US, but it is also impossible for him to be as bad as the catcher spot was last season. There’s no doubt this is an ugprade, and, if Johjima follows the Ichiro/Hideki Matsui route, he could be among the top 3 catchers in baseball. If he follows that Kaz Matsui route, he’ll still be better than what the Mariners had last season. So it’s win-win for Seattle fans.

Bavasi’s first big free agent acquisition was Raul Ibanez, something I was ridiculously critical of, as Ibanez was heading into his 32 yo season after about a season and a half of 115 OPS+ after an entire career of suckitude. Well, Bavasi had it right, as Ibanez has been ridiculously consistent at DH/LF/1B for the Ms. He’s not a great player, but he’s an offensive value for a team that is not deep and really needs players who can hold their own with the bat. Bavasi’s recent big free agent acquisition is noted dino-non-believer Carl Everett. It’s impossible not to be riveted by Everett, as he is certifiably insane. Everett is going to play the role of DH/backup OF. He’s probably not going to hit enough to be a valuable asset, but again, the Mariners need all the offense they can muster, and Everett is an improvement over what they had last season, even if he’s barely average at this point in his career. Now, this is a spot where Bavasi could have continued the youth movement, with either Chris Snelling or Shin-soo Choo taking over in LF and Ibanez continuing at DH, but Snelling has this issue where he can’t stay healthy (I think because he’s Australian and he expects the water to flush the other way. He really needs a good “booting.”) and Choo might not have enough pop for a corner spot. Bavasi took flyers on Everett and also Matt Lawton (which is amusing, given the steroid issues in the Seattle organization). That’s a lot of depth to rotate through the DH/4th outfield spot, and that’s a smart move by Bavasi, who desparately needs to uncover offensive talent for his team.

Finally, there’s Ichiro. He’s really an impossible player to discuss. His approach at the plate makes him alternately more valuable and less valuable than his component numbers. He’s a super valuable fantasy player, with his high average and stolen bases, but might be less valuable to his offense (well, not the Seattle offense, but a real major league offense) due to his trading a lot of walks for singles. Ask ten people, and you’ll get ten answers about where he ranks among his peers. All I’ll say is that he’s the Mariners RF and easily their most valuable offensive player this side of Richie Sexson (and even some fans would argue that fact!)

All that discussion about a Mariner offense that scored 699 runs in 2005 (22nd in baseball!), and is probably on pace to add maybe 25 runs to that total in 2006? Well, what else would you talk about when talking about the Mariners? 90 year old Jamie Moyer? The mediocrity of Joel Pineiro? The suckicity of Gil Meche? The vastly overrated acquisition of Jarrod Washburn (always a good bet to implode, given his scarily low strikeout rates)? The surprisingly good, hard throwing bullpen with luminaries such as Eddie Guardado, Rafael Soriano, J.J. Putz, and Julio Mateo?

Oh wait. The Mariners have Felix Hernandez. “King Felix.” King Felix.

Felix Hernandez is everyone’s odds on favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, or he would be, if he hadn’t already dominated AL batters for 80+ innings last season. He’s the modern day Dwight Gooden, a 19 yo pitcher who burst onto the seem with a smoking fastball and secondary pitches to match. Flawless mechanics, a track record that says that what he did in 2005 (2.67 ERA, 7.8 K/9, .5 HR/9) is exactly what we should expect from him, and a ballpark conducive to his pitching. Basically, Felix Hernandez is the next big thing. Strike that, he’s the current big thing. If there’s a single story to follow on the Mariners this season, it’s the progression of Felix Hernandez, who’ll turn 20 shortly after opening day, and will immediately become a Cy Young contender. He’s one of the players to watch in 2006, a reason to go to the ballpark, a reason to take a vacation to Seattle.

Basically, he’s pretty much the only thing standing between the Mariners and complete obscurity.

Prediction: 75-87

Top 10 Prospects
1.Jeff Clement C
2.Kenji Johjima C
3.Adam Jones OF
4.Clint Nageotte RHP
5.Chris Snelling OF
6.Asdrubal Cabrera SS
7.Shin-soo Choo OF
8.Yorman Bazardo RHP
9.Matt Tuiasosopo SS
10.Bobby Livingston LHP

Dan Shaughnessy opens today’s column with this…

He’s an important piece. The Red Sox aren’t going anywhere without Curt Schilling.

Not to discount what Schill has the potential to contribute, but if the Sox can win 95 games while getting 93 innings of 77 ERA+ pitching out of him like they did in 2005, isn’t it a tad dishonest to be addressing the topic in such absolutes?

Today was one of baseball’s darkest days in years and so lest we all get too down over the passing of Kirby Puckett or the extent to which it appears Barry Bonds has cheated, there is some good news on the Red Sox front. John Flaherty, he of the 20 OPS+ in 2005, has retired.

I was certain he was going to make the club. In fairness to Flaherty, he made over $16,000,000 in baseball, so good for him for carving out a really nice career.

Projected Lineup
SS Hanley Ramirez
LF Chris Aguila
RF Jeremy Hermida
3B Miguel Cabrera
1B Mike Jacobs
C Josh Willingham
2B Dan Uggla
CF Eric Reed

Projected Rotation
Dontrelle Willis
Sergio Mitre
Brian Moehler
Jason Vargas
Joshua Johnson

Projected Closer
Joe Borowski

Outlook

If you’re gonna blow it up, you ought to just go ahead and blow it up. In this respect, the Marlins deserve some credit. Gone are A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Juan Pierre, Alex Gonzalez and more. Obviously, 2006 is not going to be the Marlins’ year. At the same time, it will not be anything like the 43-win 2003 Detroit Tigers. This Marlins team is not there yet but they are loaded with young talent. Sure most of it is raw but it’s still talent, and talent will keep you hanging around ballgames. Depending on how guys like Yusmeiro Petit, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Olsen, Jason Vargas, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Willingham, Mike Jacobs and Dan Uggla adjust, I see the Fish winning anywhere between 55 and 70 games. I don’t hold out much hope for Chris Aguila or Eric Reed. But if the others demonstrate that they can play, this Marlins team won’t be the laughing stock that many think they will be.

The lineup is a little bit intriguing. A little bit. As I stated above, I don’t think Reed can play at all and I see Aguila struggling. Reed may have his attributes but he has never posted an OPS above .800, or at least he hasn’t since he was in high school. Not as an Aggie at Texas A&M, not in the minors. I don’t tend to try and put together MLE’s (Major League Equivalent numbers) but I don’t reckon that bodes too well for a rookie stepping in to play full time at Dolphins Stadium. Aguila will have to make another step in the developmental process to be an asset, a long shot given that he is 27 years old. There is something to work with, however. For starters, there is Miguel Cabrera. He rakes, pounds, mashes and rakes some more like few his age have ever done. Cabrera is 23, and after two-plus seasons he sports a career OPS+ of 131 with legends like Henry Aaron and Frank Robinson popping up on his comp list over at Baseball Reference. He’s on a very, very short list of most desirable commodities in baseball. The Marlins plan on handing uber-prospect Jeremy Hermida a starting job this year, something that surely bears watching. He doesn’t have Cabrera’s track record but he can sure rake too, and he features a mature approach, as evidenced by his .399 career Minor League on-base average. Two oldish prospects will also have to carry their weight, and I happen to think they are both perfectly capable. Josh Willingham has a chance to be one of the better catchers in the National League while Mike Jacobs figures to capably take over first base. Dan Uggla may or may not produce at the Keystone Corner – he’s been too inconsistent in the minors to really portend a flop or competence – while Hanley Ramirez may be one of the very worst regulars in Major League Baseball. Eric Reed should give him a good run for his money. A superstar, a budding star, a couple of reliable sticks, two question marks and two gaping holes; what does it add up to? Probably not a whole helluva lot, but it will be fun to see how speedily some of the youngsters can develop.

Barring significant strides forward from prospects Yusmeiro Petit and Anibal Sanchez, this pitching staff looks atrocious. At the top will be Dontrelle Willis, a perfectly fine ace that many teams would covet but after Willis, it gets ugly in a hurry. Sergio Mitre has yet to show signs that he can put it together at the Major League level, and he’s the #2. Brian Moehler is just awful and Joshua Johnson doesn’t figure to be much of a help. There is at least reason for hope with Jason Vargas. The 23 year-old out of Long Beach State looked impressive in his first season in the Bigs, and his previous track record suggests he has a shot at being a pretty good Major League pitcher. Scott Olsen, like Vargas, is promising but will be counted on for more than he is likely capable of providing at this point. So we have a star, a couple of big-time prospects, three virtual locks to turn in below average seasons and two youngsters who figure to be about average; it’s just not a recipe for quality run-prevention.

It’s hard to portend the bullpen chipping in a great amount, either. Joe Borowski was lights-out in the second half with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays last year and could well be a fine closer, but he has had injury problems and has been up-and-down even when healthy. Travis Bowyer has a live arm, but really, who knows? He was the main booty in the Luis Castillo deal and has a great amount of potential but his walk totals have been high over the years and there are some injury concerns as well. He would be fine as a back of the bullpen type with upside but he is not the kind of guy you want to be counting on a great deal. Same thing with Chris Resop – lots of potential but they are rushing him. Petit and Sanchez figure to start the year in the pen too, and they should help. Nate Bump, Renyel Pinto, Randy Messenger, Logan Kensing…blah blah blah. Maybe they can throw something effective together but I doubt it.

If the each of the Marlins players were to each simultaneously achieve their respective peaks, this would be one scary team. They have positioned themselves nicely for the future, with a bevy of prospects and virtually no salary on the books. But their chances in 2006 look dire whether Joe Girardi allows facial hair or not. There will be an interesting aspect to the 2006 Fish that I will be watching for. At a number of positions, the Marlins will be testing the concept of “replacement player” and opposing teams may or may not take note. It will be interesting, for instance, to watch Chris Aguila make the minimum and post numbers similar to Jacque Jones. Likewise, Dan Uggla is probably a great bet to outperform a guy like Tony Womack. The Marlins will be competitive this season with a payroll around $20 million and a mix of superstars, prospects, and high-level minor league performers being given a chance. Maybe some GM’s will learn that when tinkering with the roster, some of the best, most cost-effective options are right underneath their nose, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Prediction: 64-98

Top 10 Prospects
1. Jeremy Hermida, OF
2. Anibal Sanchez, RHP
3. Yusmeiro Petit, RHP
4. Chris Volstad, RHP
5. Josh Willingham, C-1B
6. Scott Olsen, LHP
7. Gaby Hernandez, RHP
8. Aaron Thompson, LHP
9. Hanley Ramirez, SS
10. Travis Bowyer, RHP

My goodness, how sad. For the first time, a superstar I can vividly recall playing has passed away. The 1991 World Series was un-freaking-believable, thanks largely to Kirby.

My cousins grew up in Minnesota, and I remember that they had a neighbor with a dog named Kirby and there were assorted Puckett dolls around the house and I think maybe even something called a “Kirby-bear.” He was a Minnesota icon.

It was a shame that he turned out to be such a deeply flawed man. But hey, we can all learn from him. Do whatever it is you do with infectious enthusiasm, joy and energy and then try and go about the rest of your life in an upstanding and healthy manner. Here he is, in his very finest moment.