3/21/2006

Some Thoughts On the Trade

Filed under: — Sully @ 9:07 am

Be sure to read Mullet’s recently posted Nats preview, I just want to post my reaction to yesterday’s deal.

Just so we are clear on what the Red Sox have managed to acquire, here is my summation of Wily Mo’s past, present and future.

What Wily Mo Pena Has Been To Date:

- A below average hitter with out-of-this-world power (he has hit a home run every 15.53 plate appearances since 2004).
- A free-swinger that lacks any sort of sensible approach at the plate (he sports a career .303 on-base percentage)
- A brutal outfielder. One of the very worst in baseball according to many of the advanced metrics.
- A lefty masher. He has hit .276/.347/.536 against southpaws since 2003.

What Wily Mo Pena Is at the Moment:

- 24 years old.
- Big, strong, fast and possessor of one of the very best outfield arms in baseball. And yet, a terrible fielder.
- The best platoon partner the Sox have ever had for Trot Nixon.
- Cost controlled
- In need of development in order to become an average everyday ballplayer.
- In need of serious development in order to become a good everyday ballplayer.

What Wily Mo Pena Can Be:

- Just check his comps. Jesse Barfield, Rocky Colavito, Bobby Bonds, Harmon Killibrew? Pena could well be a superstar.
- A total flameout, niche role player who could never develop enough patience at the plate or enough of a clue in the outfield to become a good Major League Baseball player.

As for the value aspect of the deal, I love it. Boston dealt from a position of strength in order to acquire something of which they had very little, right handed power. Bronson Arroyo is a valuable entity, but the Sox had a bunch of guys that can do what he does. The most compelling part of the deal is just how many areas of the team this trade addresses. They have Trot’s platoon partner now, and by extension, one of the best right field situations in baseball. They have someone with experience in leftfield and centerfield as well so when Manny and Coco need breathers, Terry Francona has a viable option. There has been talk about Pena playing some first too, but I don’t see it. He’s raw enough as is and to ask the guy to learn a whole new position may be too much. Finally, Pena may very well be their righty masher of the future.

More than ever, Francona has to be flexible with his roster. He doesn’t have the etched-in-stone nine he had in 2004 or that he thought he had in 2005. His disinclination to utilize Roberto Petagine and Kevin Youkilis last season was disappointing, but he has another deep roster in 2006 and has a chance to show he can grow as a manager. If Alex Gonzalez comes up in a critical, late inning situation, pinch hit for crissakes. If an opposing manager gets his LOOGY to face Trot, counter with Pena. There is an extra burden in this respect as well because if Pena is going to develop, he needs to play. Nothing would be more harmful to his future than Francona stubbornly deciding not to platoon Trot, the injury prone Nixon somehow staying healthy and Pena finishing up the season with 150 plate appearances. The guy needs to play, chiefly because he can help and secondarily because infrequent playing time will stunt his progress.

Anyway, kudos to the management guys in the basement. Now it’s time for the management guys in the dugout to make it work.

8 Responses to “Some Thoughts On the Trade”

  1. Peter* N. Says:

    Your last sentence said it all. Good job! The potential is there for the kid. And Trot will get his rest this year.

  2. SamW Says:

    What do you make of Pena’s glove? Along with plate discipline it seems to be the main area of concern, and I assume that’s what leads to the talk about working him out at first base. Can he learn to be a passable outfielder?

  3. Sully Says:

    Pena’s likelihood of becoming a good fielder is very much akin to his likelihood of becoming a good hitter. He has all the tools. He just needs practice, development and a general refining of his skill-set.

  4. Darryl Says:

    This is one of the best well rounded views of Wily Mo I’ve read since the deal went down.

  5. Sully Says:

    Thanks Darryl.

  6. Craig Says:

    Wily Mo’s a project with tremendous upside. He has a ton of power, a plus arm, he mashes lefties and decent speed (which could translate into decent range in the field.

    On the negative side, he can’t field, he can’t hit righties and he strikes out at a rate that would embarrass Bellhorn.

    The Sox need to get him the at bats. Its that simple.

    Oh, and concerning first base. If Lowell doesn’t recover from his funk, it would not shock me to see them move Youk to third and put Pena at first (which he played in Winter ball).

  7. SoxDog Says:

    There is a 1 in 5 chance that Willy Mo becomes a superstar. Thre is a 1 in 5 chance that Willy Mo is a bust. There is a 3 in 5 chance that Willy Mo stays at the level he’s at right now.

  8. Mullet Says:

    I agree with SoxDog, which pretty much means there’s a 4 in 5 chance that Pena is a frustrating hitter who’ll need to be on the short end of a platoon to be worthwhile, and a 1 in 5 chance that he’s going to turn into a useful player overall.

    Is that worth giving up a starting pitcher? Not usually, but the Sox pickup other incremental gains in the short and long runs (clearing out a bit of the SP logjam in an attempt to get Papelbon more innings; picking up a platoon bat for Nixon; getting a young, cost controlled player who might be good).

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