Washington Nationals
2005: 81-81 5th in the NL East

Projected Lineup
Disgruntled Alfonso Soriano
2B Jose Vidro
CF Ryan Church
1B Nick Johnson
RF Jose Guillen
3B Ryan Zimmerman
C Brian Schneider
SS Christian Guzman

Projected Rotation
Livan Hernandez
John Patterson
Ramon Ortiz
Brian Lawrence (injured) / Tony Armas, Jr.
Ryan Drese

Projected Closer
Chad Cordero

Outlook
Jim Bowden strikes again. Washington had a nifty little team, a little thin on pitching, but with some offensive potential (if they could ever rid themselves of the black hole known as Christian Guzman). Hot prospect Ryan Zimmerman hit a godly .397/.419/.569 in a late season 58 AB stint and looks ready for the full time job at 3B. Jose Vidro and Brian Scheider remain some of the better hitters at their respective positions. Jose Guillen hit well enough to play full time in a corner, and even better, didn’t assault anyone (that we know of). Ryan Church came up and hit well in a half-season stint, well enough to play the other corner and not hurt the team. Nick Johnson stayed healthy (for the most part) and finally had that 850+ OPS/15 HR season folks have been waiting for.

Unfortunately for Nationals fans, Brad Wilkerson had a bit of a down year in CF. Not a bad year, but he just didn’t put the ball in play enough, and his rate stats suffered. It looked like a flukey bad year, and certainly not a sign that he wasn’t fit to hold down a job for the Nats.

Well, Wilkerson isn’t toolsy enough for Jim Bowden. So he went and traded Wilkerson (and more) for Alfonso Soriano. Second baseman Alfonso Soriano. Where the Nationals already have stalwart Jose Vidro. Bowden said Soriano would play the outfield, even though Soriano has always fought against that idea. There’s no doubt that Soriano can hit. There’s also no doubt that he’s an awful 2B. But, he wants to play 2B and he’s shown no signs of agreeing to move elsewhere. “No worries,” said Bowden, “we’ll make it work.”

Yesterday, March 20th, Soriano was slotted into his first spring game after the WBC. He was in the lineup to bat leadoff and play LF. He refused to take the field, and now Bowden is talking about putting him on the disqualified list (or attempting to trade him). Trading him is probably the best option, except teams are going to rape Bowden like he’s Beecher in Oz. Everyone knows the Nationals need to move him, why pay full price?

Bowden’s folly in making this deal leaves the team hurting a bit. The team’s now looking at starting one of Dos Marlons (Marlon Anderson or Marlon Byrd), neither of whom is a particularly good hitter. The Nationals will still be starting the completely useless Guzman at SS, and now a mostly useless Marlon brother in LF. This team simply doesn’t have the offensive power to handle the loss of Wilkerson and Soriano, especially given that they scored only 639 runs in 2005 (I said they were a nifty team, not a great one).

The pitching staff is similarly thin. Livan Hernandez is a freak. He’s probably a better hitter than some of the folks the Nationals have on the bench. He also just keeps throwing about 250 innings of league average pitching every year. He’s helped significantly by his park (which kills offense like Lil Jon kills good hip hop), but he’s also helped by the fact that he’s fat and seems to never tire. I’ve given up trying to figure him out. John Patterson broke out with a solid season in 2005, and his peripherals give one hope that he’ll be able to produce similar numbers this season. He’s only 28 and there’s a chance that Patterson could quietly become one of the tier 1 / 1.5 type guys in the National League.

Here’s where the wheels fall off a bit. Ramon Ortiz is the 3rd starter, but he’s about 4 seasons removed from his last really good season, and is also about 4 years older than his listed age. Removing RFK from the situation, Ortiz is a good bet to suck and suck bad. Brian Lawrence would be one of the best #3 or 4 starters in the NL, and was a steal for Vinny Castilla, except he’s hurt and won’t pitch for a good while. That means Ryan Drese makes the starting rotation. Ryan Drese pitched OK at home, and awful everywhere else. He’s a bad pitcher. Bad. He’s not going to last the season, and will likely lose some starts to Sunny Kim/Zach Day/Jon Rauch. Washington fans, be excited! Finally, Tony Armas, Jr. (the second player in the major leagues to have four body parts in his name) rounds out the staff. He was bad last season, is always hurt, and has simply stopped striking anyone out. There’s a chance he could rebound, but it’s minute and it doesn’t matter since he’ll probably be hurt by May 3rd or so.

There’s a bright spot for Washington: Chad Cordero. He’s 24, strikes guys out, doesn’t walk many, and takes advantage of his home park to put up ridiculously filthy numbers. Even park adjusted, his numbers easily rank amongst the best in baseball. He won’t save 47 games again, not for this team, but if used wisely by Frank Robinson, could help keep this wretched pitching from being deplorable. The rest of the bullpen is similarly solid. Gary Majewski, Luis Ayala, Joey Eischen, and Mike Stanton are all good to great relievers who will be asked to throw a lot of innings this year. Quite frankly, that’s probably a best case scenario for this team.

The Nationals overachieved last year, having a bizarrely good season when their numbers said they should have won about 77 games. The offense got worse, with the loss of Wilkerson, the potential loss of Soriano, and the non-loss of Guzman. The pitching got worse, with the loss of Brian Lawrence, and the addition of Ramon Ortiz and more innings from Ryan Drese.

Just think, Jim Bowden could have been our GM. Enjoy Washington!

Prediction: 72-90

Top 10 Prospects
1.Ryan Zimmerman 3B
2.Kory Casto 3B
3.Larry Broadway 1B
4.Brendan Harris 2B
5.Bill Bray LHP
6.Clint Everts RHP
7.Mike Hinckley LHP
8.Justin Maxwell OF
9.Daryl Thompson RHP
10.Collin Balester RHP