Minnesota Twins
2005: 83-79, 3rd in the AL Central

Projected Lineup
LF Shannon Stewart
2B Luis Castillo
C Joe Mauer
DH Rondell White
CF Torii Hinter
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
3B Tony Batista
SS Jason Bartlett

Projected Rotation
Johan Santana
Brad Radke
Carlos Silva
Kyle Lohse
Scott Baker

Projected Closer
Joe Nathan

The prevailing sentiment that I gather from listening to the media, prognosticators and baseball pals in the know is that both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians have left the Twins in the dust. After all, both clubs won over 90 games last year and while I wouldn’t characterize the Pale Hose as young, I would characterize their General Manager Kenny Williams as relentless and not particularly interested in giving up his post atop the AL Central. The Indians are young, feature a competent General Manager of their own and do not seem to be going anywhere for a number of years. So that’s it for the Twins? Really? Well let’s think about this. They won 83 games last season with a pitiful offense, to which they have added Rondell White, Luis Castillo and perhaps the still promising Jason Kubel, and discarded or demoted Jacque Jones, Nick Punto, Juan Castro and Luis Rivas. The pitching staff will see the arrivals of Scott Baker and uber-prospect Francisco Liriano, while Brad Radke will try and regain his 2004 form. The Twins are a team with incremental improvement potential all over the diamond, and I happen to believe they are a good bet to take back their place atop their division.

So let’s take a look at where and how the Twins may see some improvement. We will take a look at what the Twins got out of a particular player or position in 2005, and compare it to what PECOTA has in store for whoever will be out there in 2006. Let’s start with left field and Shannon Stewart, who had his worst season since the Clinton administration in 2005. He is just 32, and I am not ready to write him off.

Shannon Stewart 2005: .274/.323/.388
Stewart 2006 (PECOTA): .276/.330/.399

I happen to believe this projection looks awfully conservative. For his career, Stewart is a .300/.364/.441 hitter, and I see him more or less splitting the difference between his 2005 and career numbers.

Jacque Jones signed with the Cubs, which in all likelihood shifts Michael Cuddyer to right field with Tony Batista taking Jones’ at bats. Obviously, it is tough to portend improvement here. Terry Ryan’s acquisition of Batista was mystifying at best but it does appear Batista will be starting the season playing everyday. There is hope in the form of Jason Kubel that Batista could be relegated to bench duties but with Kubel struggling to come back from an ACL tear this Spring Training, that possibility appears to be something of a pipedream at this point.

Jacque Jones 2005: .239/.319/.438
Tony Batista PECOTA: .245/.282/.419

Rondell White will take Matthew Lecroy’s at-bats, and though many are down on the White acquisition, I think he should provide a bit of improvent. White has been a consistently solid corner outfielder over the past 10 seasons or so and doesn’t show signs of slowing. Something along the lines of .340/.475 is perfectly doable for White.

The Twins will improve the most at middle infield, where guys like Juan Castro, Nick Punto and Luis Rivas all saw significant time last season. Jason Bartlett, this year’s full-time shortstop, was no great shakes himself but he never was handed the job and therefore was unable to hit his stride. He is a much better player than he showed last season. At second base, the Twins traded for Luis Castillo, one of the very best defensive second basemen in baseball and a reliable on-base man to boot. It was a move that I believe may prove to be the most significant of the off-season in the AL Central.

2005 Twins Second Basemen: .256/.320/.345
Luis Castillo PECOTA: .299/.374/.364

2005 Twins Shortsops: .235/.283/.325
Jason Bartlett PECOTA: .271/.339/.393

Michael Cuddyer and Torii Hunter are both known quantities at this point and should more or less replicate their respective decent 2005 campaigns. Where the Twins can expect to see more improvement, however, is from their two young sluggers, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer took a huge stride last year, asserting himself as one of the game’s very best catchers. Morneau took a step backwards but at just 24, can reasonably be expected to bounce back.

2005 Joe Mauer: .294/.372/.411
Joe Mauer PECOTA: .298/.360/.451

2005 Justin Morneau: .239/.304/.437
Justin Morneau PECOTA: .270/.336/.493

The Twins scored just 688 runs last season, and time and again their offense squandered tremendous pitching performances by guys like Johan Santana and Carlos Silva. I do not necessarily foresee the Twins morphing into a powerhouse overnight but I do see potential for significant improvement.

On the pitching side, the Twins are as rock solid as anybody. With Cy Young favorite Santana anchoring the front of the rotation, the promising Scott Baker holding the back end down and Brad Radke and Carlos Silva in the middle, this rotation will again be one of baseball’s best. I do question why the Twins saw fit to offer Kyle Lohse arbitration, particularly with Francisco Liriano chomping at the bit for a regular turn, but I believe natural selection will play itself out here. Ron Gardenhire won’t be able to resist replacing Lohse with Liriano for too long. The bullpen is also loaded with good arms. Liriano starts the season out there, and Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain will be back to set up the dominant Joe Nathan.

The Twins had no problem keeping runs off the board last season and in that respect, I can’t imagine this season will be much different. It will be much different, however, on the offensive side and it is for this reason that I believe too many people are sleeping on the Twins.

Prediction: 89-73

1. Francisco Liriano, LHP
2. Scott Baker, RHP
3. Matt Garza, RHP
4. Jason Kubel, OF
5. Anthony Swarzak, RHP
6. Jay Rainville, RHP
7. Matt Moses, 3B
8. Glen Perkins, LHP
9. Kevin Slowey, RHP
10. Denard Span, OF