San Francisco Giants
2005: 75-87 3rd in the NL West

Projected Lineup
CF Randy Winn
2B Ray Durham
LF Barry Bonds
RF Moises Alou
1B Lance Niekro
3B Pedro Feliz
SS Omar Vizquel
C Mike Matheny

Projected Rotation
Jason Schmidt
Matt Morris
Noah Lowry
Matt Cain
Brad Hennessey

Projected Closer
Armando Benitez

Outlook
This is a tough team to project. Last season, the Giants were pretty bad. They had the second worst offense in the National League (actually, second worst in all of baseball). Even in SBC Park, that’s not a good thing. Of course, the Giants were without their best player for all but about 50 plate appearances last season. The offense was lead by Ray Durham and Moises Alou, the only two players to put up above average lines in near-full seasons of action (Randy Winn had a fantastic half-season after arriving from Seattle). But, what can you expect when exactly one player in your regular lineup is under the age of 30 (and said player, Jason Ellison, is looking like he might be a 5th outfielder this season).

Brian Sabean has an age issue. He likes, let’s say, mature offensive players. When healthy, this lineup of mature, finely aged players will score runs. However, how often will the lineup of 41 yo Bonds, 39 yo Alou, 39 yo Omar Vizquel, 35 yo Mike Matheny, and 34 yo Ray Durham actually be healthy? How often will they be able to play in long stretches of back-to-back games without taking a night off? When you’re offense depends on contributions from Mike Matheny (.242/.295/.406), Omar Vizquel (.271/.341/.350), and Pedro Feliz (.250/.295/.422), does it matter?

This offense comes down to one player, and one player alone: Barry Bonds. This team is dependent on one player, and one player alone: Barry Bonds. Brian Sabean’s legacy as a GM is dependent on one player … well, you get the picture. The Giants will go as far as Bonds’ reportedly acne-scarred back will take them. If he stays healthy, has 500 PA, and doesn’t get suspended, the Giants will probably add 100 runs to their 2005 total, just from Bonds alone! In 2004, Barry Bonds created 184 runs in a near full-season of action. In 2005, Michael Tucker and Jason Ellison created 70 runs combined. A normal Bonds season should easily double their production. A normal Bonds is probably a 10-win swing – he’s normally a 12-15 WARP-type player; Ellison and Tucker were worth roughly 3 WARP. Even just an average Bonds season is probably worth at least 5 wins to the Giants.

There are only a couple of changes to the Giants offense, Bonds aside. Randy Winn is back for a full season, and hopes to build on the amazing performance he put up after arriving from Seattle (a Bonds-like .359/.391/.680). He’s stretched a bit in CF, but his bat is more than enough to carry the position, even if he doesn’t hit as well as he did last season. Sabean fulfilled his old player off-season acquisition quota by getting Steve Finley to be the 4th OF. Finley sucked last season (to put it mildly), and at 41, isn’t a good bet to bounce back. Jason Ellison lurks behind, waiting for one of the decrepit outfielders to break a hip or choke on metamucil. Finally, 1B has been given to Lance Niekro, who sadly, does not throw knucklers around the diamond. Niekro had a somewhat disappointing 2005, and at 27, has got to breakout, or fear losing the position to prospect Travis Ishikawa at some point in the next season or so.

Suprisingly, for a front office that eschews first round picks by signing crappy free agents, the Giants have put together a fairly good young crop of pitchers. Noah Lowry is the 3rd starter in name only, as he was the best starter on the team last season, and doesn’t look to be slowing down. He’s now got about 270 IP under his belt at age 25, and saw his K/9 rate spike up to just over 7 last season. That spike came with a small spike in his BB/9 rate as well, which is the only knock on his record. But, having a high walk rate is something a pitcher can generally get away with in SBC Park. With a small increase in his control, Lowry’s looking like a solid anchor for the Giants rotation.

If Lowry is the ace in practice, Jason Schmidt is the ace in name. Coming back from an injury, Schmidt might finally be showing some wear and tear on his well-used arm. His walk rate increased to an alarming 4 per 9 innings, which is simply too high to be effective. Like Lowry, if Schmidt can increase his control a tiny bit, he’ll be infinitely more valuable to the team. The Giants big off-season acquisition is former Cardinal Matt Morris. Morris is a fairly predictable pitcher. He won’t strike a lot of guys out, but he also won’t walk a ton, and he’ll probably be 5-10% better than your average pitcher. His numbers should look ok in San Francisco, and he’s definitely an improvement on Brett Tomko. The staff is rounded out by youngsters Matt Cain and Brad Hennessey, both of whom saw action last season. Neither looked stellar, but Hennessey should throw about 200 league average innings, which is pretty darn good for a cost controlled guy at the end of your rotation. Matt Cain is a stud and is projected as the future ace of this rotation. It remains to be seen whether or not he’s ready for that label, but he’s ridiculously young and has pretty well proven himself in the minors at this point.

Armando Benitez was injured much of last season, and when healthy, was his normal scary self. Still, he’s talented enough to be an effective anchor for the bullpen. Along with Benitez are veterans Jeff Fassero, Tim Worrell, and Steve Kline. At this point in their careers, none of these guys are great bets to be anything more than passable arms. Tyler Walker was last season’s Benitez insurance, and performed similarly, right down to the scary walk rate and ability to give up bombs even in limited action. The only young arm with any upside in the bullpen is Scott Munter, but his peripherals are awful. His saving grace is being a groundball pitcher in a pitcher’s park. Unfortunately for Munter, he’s now inducing groundballs into a defense that is the combined age of the Golden Girls.

If healthy, as ancient as they are, this team will win somewhere in the neighborhood of 88 games, which might be enough in the NL West. If this team loses Bonds, Winn, Durham, or Alou for any significant period of time, they’ll win 75 games again, and be looking up at everybody but the Diamondbacks and Rockies.

Prediction: 85-77

Top 10 Prospects
1.Matt Cain RHP
2.Merkin Valdez RHP
3.Eddy Martinez-Esteve OF
4.Travis Ishikawa 1B
5.Marcus Sanders 2B
6.Daniel Griffin RHP
7.Jonathan Sanchez LHP
8.Kevin Frandsen 3B
9.Nate Schierholtz OF
10.Pablo Sandoval 3B