Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
95-67, 1st place AL West

Projected Lineup
3B Chone Figgins
CF Darin Erstad
RF Vladimir Guerrero
LF Garret Anderson
1B Casey Kotchman
DH Juan Rivera
2B Adam Kennedy
SS Orlando Cabrera
C Jeff Mathis

Projected Rotation
Bartolo Colon
John Lackey
Jeff Weaver
Kelvim Escobar
Ervin Santana

Projected Closer
Francisco Rodriguez

Outlook

All off-season I have been clamoring to anyone that will listen that the Angels’ time is up and that Oakland will now reign supreme out West. I think I am still comfortable with this contention but upon closer inspection of this Angels squad, they are still pretty good. Their offense is not going to scare anybody but then, they didn’t last year either. Besides, I think there is ample reason to believe that this offense can improve a bit over 2005’s version while the pitching should once again be remarkable, though probably not quite as good as last year’s. Angels fans are a proud lot. The stat crowd always overlooks their team and all the Angels do is continue to win. I picked the A’s last year and I am going to pick them again this year, but this isn’t to say I am down on the Angels organization. I just believe that they will experience a growing pains-year of sorts in 2006.

Offensively, the Angels won’t be very good, but they may very well improve upon last year’s numbers. Darin Erstad moves off of first vase, where the Angels were dead last in the American League for first base OPS by a long shot in 2005. Depending on what you think of Casey Kotchman, the Angels will be anywhere from better to much much much better in 2006 at first base. At second and short, Adam Kennedy and Orlando Cabrera return. The OC is a bad baseball player, and Kennedy is no great shakes either. The sooner Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick can materialize, the better for Halos fans. The invaluable Chone Figgins will take the full-time reins at third and should be fine there. In the outfield, Garret Anderson is done, done and done. Maybe four kinds of done, I’m not sure. He no longer slugs the way a valuable player would need to in order to carry that low on-base but remember, we are talking about a team getting ready to hand DH at-bats to Tim Salmon so if you don’t think G.A. has generated enough goodwill in Anaheim for another 600 plate appearances or so, you are really low-balling the way Angels management values warm fuzzies. Speaking of which, Darin Erstad is slated to bat second. Jeff Mathis will be the full-time catcher, and though I believe he will be a very good player, I am not sure he is there yet. The lineup’s one, surefire producer, Vladimir Guererro returns and will play right field. He is a perennial MVP candidate and about the only hitter that allows this lineup to even hang around in games. All in all, I see the lineup picking up runs at first and in center field, maybe a few more at DH and then giving back a few at catcher, where Bengie Molina had a pretty good year in 2005. They will be better, but not by much, and not by enough to carry the squad to a division crown.

The pitching is the strength of this team but it figures to regress a bit from 2005. Bartolo Colon, despite being one of the least deserving Cy Young candidates in recent memory, still had one whale of a year in 2005, one I don’t believe he is capable of replicating. Colon had the lowest walk rate of his career at the age of 32. It looks like an anomaly from my vantage point, and I would suspect he would settle back into career norms. Colon is not as bad as he looked in 2004, and is not quite as good as he was last year. John Lackey will probably be Los Angeles’ best starter. Lackey will throw more than 200 innings, strike out damn near a batter every frame and if he can pull a Colon-like slashing of his walk-rate, he immediately enters Halladay/Santana territory amongst AL hurlers. I would say it’s not all that likely but he is still young enough to be making such improvements. As is, Lackey still figures to be a rock-solid item in the rotation. Even though I believe the Angels made the right decision in letting both Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd walk, they will have a tough time filling in the 382 innings of 3.49 ERA pitching the two contributed in 2005. Jeff Weaver was a nice snag, but he is the very personification of a dead-average innings eater. Kelvim Escobar is certainly capable but banking on more than 150 innings from him would be foolhardy. Ervin Santana certainly has the stuff but is he ready to put it all together at the age of 23? I am not sure. With Jeff’s younger brother Jered waiting in the wings, the Halos feature a capable replacement should someone go down or falter badly. The Angels have a very good rotation, but one that will probably fall short of last year’s in terms of performance.

Everyone knows the story of the Angels bullpen. It’s very good, and they even managed to add a few arms in Hector Carrasco and J.C. Romero. With holdovers Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Shields and Brendan Donnelly back, manager Mike Scioscia can feel comfortable any time he has a lead after the sixth or so. He will also have a deep bench at his disposal. Edgardo Alfonso and Robb Quinlan still should have some good swings left in them, while Jose Molina, the team’s second string catcher, is one of the very finest defensive backstops around. Macier Izturis is a darn good utility infielder. With organizational vision, Scioscia may have even better options. Kendry Morales is probably already the franchise’s best choice for designated hitter, Howie Kendrick the best 2nd Baseman and don’t think we have heard the last from Dallas McPherson. If Angels management is quick to demote under-performing veterans, they will be well-served.

2006 may be a small step back for the Angels but this is a team with a bright future. In Ervin Santana and John Lackey, they have two hard-throwing studs to anchor their rotation in the coming years while a bevy of tremendous position player prospects mature into contributors. This season, however, there may be a small hiccup. The incremental gains the Halos should see on the run-scoring side will in all likelihood be mitigated by a starting rotation that will see more of its hard knocks than it did in 2005.

Prediction: 85-77

Top 10 Prospects:

1. Brandon Wood 2B
2. Howie Kendrick 2B
3. Jered Weaver RHP
4. Kendry Morales 1B
5. Jeff Mathis C
6. Erick Aybar SS
7. Nick Adenhart 2B
8. Joe Saunders LHP
9. Tommy Mendoza RHP
10. Steven Shell RHP