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By Mullet, 3/5/2006 9:42 pm

Milwaukee Brewers
2005: 81-81 3rd in the NL Central

Projected Lineup
CF Brady Clark
2B Ricky Weeks
1B Prince Fielder
RF Carlos Lee
LF Geoff Jenkins
3B Corey Koskie
SS J.J. Hardy
C Damian Miller

Projected Rotation
Ben Sheets
Doug Davis
Chris Capuano
Tomo Ohka
Dave Bush

Projected Closer
Derrick Turnbow

Outlook
The Athletics, the Red Sox, the Blue Jays, the Indians, the DePodesta-led Dodgers. When people talk about the new era of sabermetrically-minded front offices, these are the teams that spring to mind. For my money, the Doug Melvin-helmed Brewers need to be added to that group. In fact, removing the taint of the Selig family from the proceedings for the moment, there might not be an organization that has put together a better model for building a contender in a smallish market. That’s the reason I’ve developed a man-crush on this team over the past few seasons.

Sure, it’s not all Doug Melvin. He came into a situation where he had a handful of great prospects, and he’s simply not screwed them up. This season, the big trio of Ricky Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Prince Fielder should all hit the field opening day and herald the arrival of a new era in Milwaukee Brewer history. Three infielders, all 23 or younger, all pretty solid bets to be better than league average at their positions right now. There simply aren’t a lot of teams in baseball that can claim that, and then follow that up with a 26 yo super sub like Bill Hall, who can backup pretty much every spot in the infield while swinging a pretty decent stick. Neither Hall nor Hardy will be huge threats with the bat, but they look like they simply will be solid players who hit well enough to be amongst the top 10 or so at their position. Weeks and Fielder project to be better than that, both with 25+ HR potential and the ceilings to be amongst the top hitters at their positions. It’s an amazing core of position players, all coming together at the same time, under cost-control, something that is imperative for a small-to-mid-market team to compete in a division with the Astros, Cardinals, and Cubs.

Melvin made way for Fielder by dealing Lyle Overbay to the Blue Jays, and then picked up Corey Koskie to play across the diamond from him in a second deal with Toronto. Koskie was acquired fairly cheaply, really for nothing more than taking on his salary; that’s pretty easy to do when 75% of your starting infield is under the age of 23. Koskie is coming off a down year, but if healthy, is a pretty solid bet to give the team 800+ OPS, which would likely give the Brewers an entire infield of better than average hitters. Throw Damian Miller into the mix behind the plate (and try to find him a caddy to hit LHP), and the Brewers have a nice mix of youth and veteranicity, and a bunch of players who simply go out and hit the ball pretty well.

The outfield is exactly the same as it was last season, with Carlos Lee, Brady Clark, and Geoff Jenkins lined up left to right. In 2005, Lee did exactly what he’s done in odd years: hit a good bit of HRs (32) and get on base less than you like (.324). If his odd-even trend continues, the Brewers might actually get more out of Lee in 2006 than they did in 2005, as Lee has had a tendency to bounce back and put up better OBPs in even years than in odd. Should the Crew bet on that? Well, no, but the odd-even trend held up for the bulk of Bret Saberhagen’s career, so it’s fun to note. Geoff Jenkins is the Brewers longest tenured position player, and again had a nifty season in ’05, putting up a line of .292/.375/.513 and playing in 148 games. If healthy (and Jenkins has been healthy for 2 straight seasons), there’s no reason he won’t do the same in ’06. Brady Clark had a breakout season in 2005, a 32 yo getting his first consistent playing time and capitalizing by simply doing what you’d want a leadoff hitter to do: get on base. Clark’s not particularly speedy (10 SB in 23 attempts), but is a perfectly competent CF given his bat. If you want to bet on someone on this team to regress, it’d be Clark, but it’s hard to imagine him dropping too far from his ’05 performance. Gabe Gross (arriving in the Overbay trade) will backup the corners, where his defense is a plus but his stick is so poor that the Brewers will likely end up shuttling him off to AAA at some point. He’s not a good bet to stay on the roster. A better bet to stick around is another of the Brewers many prospects, 6’6” speedster Corey Hart. Hart put up a great line in Nashville last season (17 HRs, 31 for 38 SB, 900+ OPS) and walks enough that he should be a valuable part of the 2006 Brew Crew. With Hart, the Brewers will certainly “Never Surrender.” (Sorry, it is requisite to have at least one Corey Hart joke.)

With a developing offense that looks to be pretty solid and a good bet to improve on last season’s 726 runs, is the pitching a good bet to improve on it’s 697 runs allowed?

In a word: no.

That’s not to say they’re going to implode. I don’t think they will. A lot of things went right for the young, talented Brewers staff in 2005, and it’s not prudent to expect that things will go as swimmingly in ’06. That being said, this staff is solid top to bottom, is quite young, and has a good enough track record to build on last year’s numbers.

The starting rotation is anchored by Ben Sheets. Sheets is simply awesome when healthy, and if healthy, is a sleeper for the Cy Young. Doug Davis, possibly the best cheap acquisition in baseball over the past 5 seasons, is the #2 starter. He’s a lefty, he strikes out batters at a good clip (8.41 K/9, 7th in the NL), and has just been good for the past 2.5 seasons in Milwaukee. Chris Capuano came out of nowhere to put up great numbers last season, and is basically Doug Davis minus a few years. He’s lefty, was 15th in the NL in K/9, and if he can maintain his control, is a solid bet to throw another productive 200+ innings. The much travelled Tomo Ohka is a bit of a head case, but has been an effective starter at every single stop in his National League career. He does nothing particularly well, but four straight seasons of average production is hard to balk at in #4. The rest of the Overbay haul, David Bush, is your likely 5th starter, another young gun, with 200+ above-average career innings in the American League. Whereas Sheets, Davis, and Capuano have the peripherals to scare opposing lineups, Ohka and Bush are the bottom of the rotation guys who just throw 200 innings and get guys out. They’re not likely to be significantly better or worse than average, but knowing that you’ve got 400 average, cheap innings is a pretty fantastic thing for a team like the Brewers.

The Brewers stumbled into closer Derrick Turnbow, and all he did was shut down opposing lineups. A 1.74 ERA, and 64 K in 67 innings is a nice resume for the incumbent closer. Throw in Matt Wise (another K per inning reliever), young fireballers Jose Capellan (acquired for fellow bullpen returnee Danny Kolb in another Melvin steal) and Jorge de la Rosa, lefty youngster Dana Eveland, and successful veteran reclamation project Rick Helling, and you’ve got a bullpen that is young, but has a solid track record. This isn’t the greatest bullpen in the world, but given how difficult it is to project relievers from season to season, this bullpen has a lot of what smart GMs look for when building a pen: youth, strikeouts, and enough depth to rotate out the ineffective relievers.

2006 might be a season of change in the NL Central. The Cardinals look weaker than any point in the previous few seasons, the Cubs should be better than they were in ’05, but have a fragile starting rotation and the most insane manager this side of Jimy Williams. The Astros are rapidly aging, may or may not have Roger Clemens, and have ridiculous expectations after the great run last season. Throw in some randomness, some luck, and some health, and there’s simply no question in my mind that the Brewers could steal the NL Central outright. I don’t think ’06 is that year, but I do think that both a division title or Wild Card are distinct, non-remote possibilities. With the complete implosion of the Packers, folks in Wisconsin might want to look to Milwaukee for their new bright and shining hope for postseason play. And once the Bucks season is over, they can keep looking to Milwaukee to see if the Brewers can slide in the back door.

Prediction: 86-76

Top 10 Prospects
1.Prince Fielder 1B
2.Ryan Braun 3B
3.Corey Hart OF
4.Jose Capellan RHP
5.Dana Eveland LHP
6.Zach Jackson LHP
7.Nelson Cruz OF
8.Yovani Gallardo RHP
9.Mark Rogers RHP
10.Will Inman RHP

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By Jimmy, 3/4/2006 7:58 am

Los Angeles Dodgers
2005: 71-91, 4th in the NL West

Projected Lineup
SS Rafael Furcal
CF Kenny Lofton
RF JD Drew
2B Jeff Kent
1B Nomar Garciaparra
LF Jose Cruz Jr
3B Bill Mueller
C Dioner Navarro

Projected Rotation
Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Odalis Perez
Brett Tomko
Jae Seo

Closer
Eric Gagne

Outlook
The Red Sox winning the World Series was supposed to spawn a golden age of statistical management in baseball. Oakland, Toronto, Cleveland, Boston, and Milwaukee all had general managers that crunched numbers to try and put together a baseball team. Los Angeles was part of that group too.

Until 2005 happened.

As lucky as the Dodgers were in 2004, they were unlucky in 2005. Jeff Kent was their only hitter who stayed healthy enough to qualify for the batting crown. In fact, Kent played as many games as JD Drew and Milton Bradley did combined. Third baseman Jose Valentin was lost early in the season as well, leaving a hole on the hot corner filled by players like Mike Edwards and Oscar Robles. As for the pitching, Odalis Perez flamed out, and the bullpen collapsed when Gagne went down. Games were finished by men such as Steve Schmoll. DJ Houlton pitched 130 innings. You know, fun stuff like that.

By the end of the season, general manager Paul DePodesta and field manager Jim Tracy apparently had knife fights in the executive suites while Frank McCourt tapped on his Speak N Spell. Tracy was fired, and laughed on his way to Pittsburgh after the season. Midway through the search for a replacement, DePodesta was fired also.

In the unsubstantiated gossip portion of this article, one of the main reasons that DePo was fired was that he didn’t communicate well with the coaching staff or the players. McCourt supposedly fired him over the telephone right before he sent out the press release.

After the DePo firing, I can only assume Bill Plaschke high-fived Tommy Lasorda and got back to cashing his pay checks arguing with the great intellectual minds of our time on “Around the Horn.” I’ll take Woody Paige to block, Tony.

One of the biggest concerns with the Alpha house anti-nerd patrol is that Paul Doody-face turned the roster over too much, eschewing chemistry for his own nefarious numbers-based needs. Of course new-GM Ned Coletti from the Giants promptly signed a shitload (scientific term) of new guys. This was met with a rounding “Huzzuh!” from the Alpha house because they got awesome guys: The 2003 Boston Red Sox. McCourt then yelled “Oh boy! They like me!” and got a wedgie from Ogre.

Among the first actions of Ned’s career as a real life general manager was hiring Grady Little pictured here at his press conference:

When asked about the state of the Dodgers, Little reportedly said how he liked them French fried potaters they serve. True to fashion, Dodgers fans showed up to the press conference half way through the question and answer portion. I promise that’s my last cheap joke of the column.

Since I can’t really talk about Grady Little without blood rushing to my mouth and fire shooting out of my eyes, I’ll move on to the product that Colletti has put on the field. Behind the plate is a timeshare between young, ex-Yankee Dioner Navarro, and the old, crappy Sandy Alomar Jr. Navarro is still raw enough to improve on his hitting (he turned 22 a month ago) and his play calling, so I suppose a guy like Alomar is good to have around. But my question is, why not have a catching instructor, full-time, or have your bench coach co-opt as a full time catching coach. Why hemorrhage outs at the plate, just so Navarro can learn from Alomar as he rockets towards Social Security? Baseball amuses me sometimes.

On the corners are former Red Sox Bill Mueller and Nomar Garciaparra. You might remember them as the left side of the infield of a team that was a few outs away from the World Series. Due to various muscle tears, and a uterine pull, Nomar is being reinvented as a first baseman RIGHT NOW!!!! The strain on his body will be lessoned, but I doubt his bat carries his learning curve. Not only does he still refuse to adjust to a change in skills, but he’s moving a to park which will stifle his offense a bit too. I’ll just wonder what could have been. Mueller is still his same, unassuming, unexciting self. He spent three years in Boston, didn’t ruffle feathers, and had two of the best three seasons of his career, and probably three of the top five. Again though, there is a lamentation there, because I’m sure that Mueller’s health kept him from a few All-star games and more money. The ironic thing is that affordability vs. production is what made him a Red Sox in the first place, so if he never shattered his knee, he probably wouldn’t ever have been a Red Sox. Mueller, to my generation, will be like a Rico Petrocelli was to my mom’s: A guy that was immensely popular for no other reason than he was a Red Sox and he did his job.

With Nomar being on board, Hee Choi’s career will continute to stagnate for reasons I can’t fathom, be them not trusting his production, or his own bizarre ability to completely suck for stretches where it is vitally important he doesn’t. Due to the later part of 2004 and the entirety of 2005, I would like to see what he does for a team that doesn’t play in Dodger Stadium before I wash my hands of him completely.

Up the middle are Jeff Kent, who had another clubhouse problem by not getting along with a black teammate who has temper problems, and newly minted Rafael Furcal. Kent had his normal year of producing runs, with the nice twist that he was the only one healthy enough on the team to qualify for the batting title. He also didn’t get along with Milton Bradley, which while not shocking, is bad news for him in my eyes. I love Milton Bradley. Furcal is being paid so much money that it’s literally shocking. I mean, he’s making almost $40 million the next three years to be a pretty good, but not great shortstop. I bet Garciaparra mutters, “What makes him so fucking good” under his breath at least 10 times this spring.

Their outfield is a Sabr-friendly trio, with an asterisk. JD Drew is one of the best players in baseball for about 130 games, while the rest he just kind of floats along. Kenny Lofton is a relic back to the times when Celine Dion ruled the world with help from James Cameron and Leo DiCaprio. 1996 was a real pop-culture wasteland. Jose Cruz could have been great if/when he developed a new skill, he didn’t lose one. Now, he seems to have leveled off some as a guy that won’t kill you while starting, but he shouldn’t be your best outfielder. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, when Drew takes his annual 50 game break and Lofton goes and breaks his hip, Cruz will be shouldering the entire offensive load for Dodgers outfielders. Thinking back, Colletti probably would have served his team better if he traded some of his minor league largess for a Coco Crisp type, ignored Lofton, and made a push for a Brian Giles or, God help them, Johnny Damon. Hindsight I suppose.

The biggest problem in Dodger land last year was the fact their pitching was terrible. The starters don’t seem to give them any relief as Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and Odalis Perez all return for fun in Southern California. Lowe performed as expected by me anyway, striking out more due to the pitcher, and allowing less runs, due to the better defense and ballpark behind him. He’s not worth $9 million a year, but he’s still a better pitcher than how he finished in Boston. Brad Penny is always hurt. Odalis Perez put together a nice season in 2004, was ignored on the free agent market and then blowed up.

The Dodgers sacrificed Duaner Sanchez to the Flushing Gods and all they got back was Jae Sao. Stupid Depo. Bret Tomko will probably be pumped there are better art museums in Los Angeles than Cincinnati or San Francisco. I actually don’t know if that’s true, but Tomko is closer to a Jim Bouton than one of the guys. The way the rotation is built is without a real number one guy, but two guys that can be the weak half of a power tandem rotation (for an example, see the way that St Louis was last year, with Carpenter and Mulder/Suppan…Penny and Lowe could have stepped in for those two and not missed a beat). Perez is enigmatic going into the season, and they have an inning eater with Tomko and a slightly above average pitcher of varying degrees of helpfulness in Jae Sao. I would be more worried if the Dodgers played in a division with better teams, but this one can serve them well.

Gagne is back, and if he stays on the mound, he’ll post ungodly save numbers that obscure the fact that he’s a very good pitcher, not a Mount Olympian. The team gave up on Edwin Jackson a bit early for ex-Backstreet Boy Lance Carter and Danys Baez. As far as righty options go in the pen, there are worse in the state of California. Baez more than Carter. Hong-Chih Kuo will probably break in as the lefty in the pen, but if Colletti had his druthers, he’d just go and find an established lefty out there to work some innings as an attempt to Grady proof his pen. Yhency Brazoban needs to rebound and fast if he’s not going to be a Gammons punch line for the next decade. Or at least when people forget about the infamous Kris Benson for Cy Young prediction.

The Dodgers are in a weak division with a team that potentially could have made the World Series last year if not for Aaron Boone. A little bit below the surface though, the Dahdjerz are really teetering on the brink of disaster. A pulled groin by Drew and Jason Repko is getting at bats. Perez’s elbow barks? D.J. Houlton is your third starter. Say Furcal separates his shoulder again…you have Oscar Robles filling in for you. The team is one of the more injury-prone in baseball with only a handful of their guys not ending up on the disabled list within the last few years. Because of that, I really don’t know how to classify them, let alone predict what they will do. I’m going to take the easy way out and say in a terrible division, they are worse than they were when they won it in 2004, but still better than last year’s disaster. Colletti has his work cut out for him, especially after the Little hire. However, when Depo was dismissed, Colletti bought some breathing room just by blaming DePodesta for everything…even moves he made. The wiggle room is higher due to him following an unpopular predecessor, so he has some years to rebound from the 2005 calamity.

Prediction: 80-82

Top 10 Prospects
1. Chad Billingsley RHP
2. Joel Guzman OF
3. Andy LaRouche 3B
4. Russell Martin C
5. Jonathan Broxton RHP
6. Blake DeWitt 3B
7. Scott Elbert LHP
8. Andre Either OF
9. Justin Orenduff RHP
10. Chin-Lung Hu SS

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By Sully, 3/3/2006 4:25 pm

Chicago Cubs
2005: 79-83, 4th in the NL Central

Projected Lineup
CF Juan Pierre
2B Todd Walker
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Jacque Jones
LF Matt Murton
C Michael Barrett
SS Ronny Cedeno

Projected Rotation
Mark Prior
Carlos Zambrano
Kerry Wood
Greg Maddux
Glendon Rusch

Projected Closer
Ryan Dempster

Outlook

I hate what this team is up to but I don’t necessarily dislike their prospects for 2006. Is that reconcilable? I think so. I hate that General Manager Jim Hendry seems to have allowed Manager Dusty Baker to influence the way he operates. I hate that they thought it prudent to agree to compensate Neifi Perez $5 million over the next two seasons. I hate that they decided to commit $24 million to two aging middle relievers that don’t figure to combine for 130 innings per season and I especially hate that Dusty Baker never, ever gives youngsters an opportunity to establish themselves as Big Leaguers.

But I think I like this team. I like this team because I can definitively say the following:

Matt Murton > Jeromy Burnitz
Juan Pierre > Cory Patterson
Ronny Cedeno > Neifi Perez
Jacque Jones > Todd Hollandsworth
Bobby Howry > Roberto Novoa
Scott Eyre > Mike Remlinger

No, the Cubs did not optimize this off-season. They made some deals I never would have made and chose not to pursue some avenues that I might have. But that doesn’t change the fact that some actual Major League caliber talent will be filling in for some guys that represented gaping holes on the 2005 squad. So even before you factor in a potential return to good health for Mark Prior and Kerry Wood and even after you take into account that Derrek Lee’s production is likely to fall off a bit, I think this Cubs team is a good bet to significantly improve upon 2005.

Between them in 2005, in 1,380 plate appearances, Neifi Perez, Todd Hollandsworth and Corey Patterson hit .249/.283/.372. With a pitcher in the lineup as well, you just can’t overstate how devastating it is to a lineup’s functionality to employ four of your nine spots in such pathetic fashion. For 2006, Hollandsworth and Patterson give way to Jones and Pierre, two useful if unspectacular players, and early indications out of Mesa have Dusty Baker saying all the right things with respect to playing Ronny Cedeno ahead of the Neifinator. The question for the Cubs will be what happens when Ronny Cedeno or Matt Murton go into extended slumps. With Neifi and Marquis Grissom, replete with all of their veteran goodness uselesness, Dusty’s commitment to using the better, younger player will be tested. The potential is there to assemble a viable lineup and if Dusty goes with his best eight, sticks with them, and only occasionally mixes in the bench parts (Perez, Grissom, Jerry Hairston, Jr., John Mabry, Henry Blanco), this offense will be good enough to win consistently. There are really three tiers of Cubs offensive players. There are the stars (Lee and Ramirez), the solid guys (Murton, Jones, Pierre, Walker, Hairston, Cedeno and Barrett), and the guys that will straight submerge your offense with regular playing time (all the rest). The trick is going to be keeping the latter group on the bench as frequently as possible.

With respect to the North Siders’ starting pitching, everyone pretty much knows the deal. If they’re healthy, they’re lights out. The problem is that it’s highly unlikely that Kerry Wood remains healthy for the entire year, and even Mark Prior has become something of a question mark. In retaining Glendon Rusch’s services and making last season’s acquisition of Jerome Williams, the Cubs have insured themselves to some extent. The problem is beyond Williams. Do you really want John Koronka or Rich Hill making starts? And what can you count on from Wade Miller at this point? The Cubs do have two bona fide dependable items in the starting rotation. Carlos Zambrano is one of the very best in the biz and good for 225 very good innings while Greg Maddux ought to once again be able to log at least 200 average innings. 200 innings out of Prior and another 100-150 quality innings out of Kerry Wood and this staff once again becomes the class of the league. Injury problems and a multitude of spot starts from sub-par minor leaguers and the Cubs staff gets ordinary quickly, just as it did in 2005.

Like with the offense, the Cubs should really be able to pencil in some improvement for the bullpen in 2006. Sure the contracts they handed out to Howry and Eyre were not particularly well thought out, but just because you overpay doesn’t mean you don’t end up with a useful part. Ask J.P. Ricciardi. What the acquisitions really did was serve to reduce the roles of lesser relievers Todd Wellemeyer and Roberto Novoa. Holdovers Will Ohman and Mike Wuertz provide depth while Ryan Dempster should be reliable nailing games down. And don’t forget about Scott Williamsom. Hey, a Cubbie fan can dream, no?

2006 will offer up the biggest test yet to Dusty Baker. He has the talent to give the Cardinals a run for their money but has never demonstrated a proclivity for sitting an older, inferior player for a younger and unproven one. I am generally of the belief that managers don’t affect a whole lot but I believe that this 2006 version of the Cubbies provides a different case. The manager will be critical. Dusty can be stubborn, and sure has made some obtuse comments in the past with respect to how best to play winning baseball (running his starters into the ground, openly deriding the walk as an offensive tool). He drives the statistically inclined Cubs fans nuts. But Dusty is not stupid, and he has to realize that he has presided over two consecutive underachieving Cubs teams. Call it a gut feeling, call it plain dumb but I think Dusty makes a real stride as a manager this season and sticks with his best players. The result will be an unexpected return to NL Central prominence for the Chicago Cubs.

Prediction: 90-72

Top-10 Prospects
1. Felix Pie OF
2. Mark Pawelek LHP
3. Ronny Cedeno SS
4. Rich Hill LHP
5. Donald Veal LHP
6. Angel Guzman RHP
7. Brian Dopirak 1B
8. Ricky Nolasco RHP
9. Eric Patterson 2B
10. Jae-Kuk Ryu RHP

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By Mullet, 3/2/2006 2:50 pm

Toronto Blue Jays
2005: 80-82 3rd in the AL East

Projected Lineup
LF Frank Catalanotto
2B Aaron Hill
CF Vernon Wells
3B Troy Glaus
1B Lyle Overbay
DH Shea Hillenbrand
RF Alexis Rios
SS Russ Adams
C Bengie Molina

Projected Rotation
Roy Halladay
A.J. Burnett
Ted Lilly
Gustavo Chacin
Josh Towers

Projected Closer
B.J. Ryan

Outlook
2005 AL East Standings

That’s one hell of a dog fight for a division title. 3 teams within 2 games of 1st place? Wait? You don’t remember the Jays finishing that close with the Sox and Yankees?

Oops. Forgot a word in that table heading. It should read “2005 AL East Pythagorean Standings.” The Blue Jays underperformed their expected win total by a full 8 games. They were unlucky enough to do it in a year where both the Red Sox and Yankees outperformed their expectations by 5 games, making the division look significantly less competitive than it was in reality.

How does a team underperform its expectations by 8 wins? Well, one place to look is 1-run games. The Blue Jays were 16-31 in 1-run games, the worst in baseball. At least some portion of your won-loss record in 1-run games is just plain old luck. There’s also a hypothesis that teams with strong bullpens do well in 1-run games. Let’s take a look at how the Blue Jays bullpen stacked up in 2005:

Reliever ERA+ (greater than 50 IP):
Scott Downs – 103 (94 IP)
Pete Walker – 126 (84 IP)
Miguel Batista – 109 (74.2 IP)
Jason Frasor – 137 (74.2 IP)
Vinnie Chulk – 115 (72 IP)
Justin Speier – 173 (66.2 IP)
Scott Schoeneweis – 134 (57 IP)

Well, I don’t think the bullpen was an issue. The worst pitcher in the Blue Jays pen to pitch in more than 20 games was Scott Downs. He was about 3% better than league average. Downs, of course, started a bunch of games when Roy Halladay went down, so those numbers are skewed a bit. But still, there’s no way the Blue Jays bullpen was the weak link.

So how exactly did the Blue Jays end up performing so abysmally in 1-run games? The offense, while not great, still scored 775 runs, good for 5th in the AL. The pitching was very good, allowing only 705 runs. Defense, of course, is much harder to measure. Baseball Prospectus’ Defensive Efficiency had the Blue Jays 10th best in baseball. Even if you don’t buy into BP’s Efficiency stat, is hard to see how the Jays defense could be the culprit.

What it comes down to is that the Blue Jays had some really crappy luck, and they compounded it by having a criminally thin bench. The Jays really didn’t have anyone coming off the bench who was even a league average hitter in 2005. Purely from a non-statistical, “let’s rationalize why the Jays ended up 2 games under .500” point of view, relying on Eric Hinske, or Reed Johnson, or Frank Menechino to come up with a big hit in the late innings is simply foolish. Not because those players are somehow “unclutch” but because they’re just not very good in general.

So, J.P. Ricciardi took a bunch of money and decided he was going to make his team deeper. And he didn’t just do it on offense. David Bush’s league averageness is gone, replaced by the high-priced, but cannon-armed A.J. Burnett. Burnett easily becomes the Jays’ second best arm, and the Jays’ second starter who can actually get hitters to swing and miss. Ricciardi paid too much for Burnett, but in such a thin market, when Ricciardi made the right move. He overpaid for someone he thought would make a big difference, rather than spreading out money to a bunch of players who are easily replaceable with cheap, fungible talent. The same goes for Ricciardi’s other gift to Torontonians (Torontoites? Torotoniacs?), former Orioles’ closer B.J. Ryan. J.P. acquired A.J. and B.J. for a whole lot of money and periods, but if you’re going to overpay, at least get the best available talent. And that’s what he did.

Ricciardi also improved the offense. He picked up new 1B Lyle Overbay on the cheap from the Brewers, who were simply looking to make room for Prince Fielder. Bengie Molina was a late pickup, on a pretty reasonably priced 1 year deal for a catcher with a little bit of pop. The middle infield is anchored down by Aaron Hill and Russ Adams who’s batting lines seem basically interchangeable. Hill and Adams are both in the under-25 crowd, giving the Jays a keystone connection that might grow together for a few years until they’re FA-eligible. Assuming they follow normal growth patterns, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them both put up league average type numbers, which isn’t a bad thing for your middle infielders. The Jays’ outfield remains pretty much unchanged: Frank Catalanotto, Vernon Wells, and Alexis Rios. Catalanotto and Wells are both pretty good players; Rios isn’t. Unless the Jays start slotting in Greg Myers at DH (where gay-friendly Shea Hillenbrand is likely to reside), Rios will be the worst hitter in the lineup.

The best hitter in the lineup? That will be the Blue Jays other big acquisition of the winter, 3B Troy Glaus (complete with new and improved wife-horse-riding clause). Glaus is the best bat the Blue Jays have had since … well, since Carlos Delgado. This is an offense that should exceed the 775 runs they scored in 2005.

Better pitching. Better hitting. Why shouldn’t I just project the Jays to win 95 games and the AL East? “Well,” I say to myself, “this team is still highly dependent on slugging percentage. There are a whole lot of guys in the lineup who are out machines.”

And I’m right. The only two likely starters who’ll end up with OBPs above .350 are Troy Glaus and Frank Catalanotto. Everyone else is likely to fall between .300 and .340. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s not a good thing either. It’s much harder to be a consistently good offense when you’re making a whole bunch of outs, especially since you only get 3 outs each inning, and 27 outs each game. It’s true, look it up.

There’s also the fact that the Blue Jays pitching staff is of the wily-variety, once you get past Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. Gustavo Chacin is ripe for a hard regression in ’06, since he strikes out less than 2 batters for every one he walks. When you can’t strike anyone out, walk a bunch of batters, and give up a bunch of hits, it’s tough to project a good sophomore season for the Ugly One. Josh Towers doesn’t strike anyone out, but he doesn’t hurt himself with walks either. He probably won’t be as successful in ’06, but he shouldn’t completely implode. Ted Lilly, the last of the wily-triumverate, simply can’t pitch any worse than he did last season. It is an impossibility. The universe would simply cease to exist.

So, toss in a little regression, sprinkle in some new arms, and you’ve probably got a ptiching staff that’s a little better than last season.

Going with the WAG method (Wild Assed Guess), I think this team might be on a 800 runs scored, 700 runs allowed pace. That’d put the Jays right up around 90-92 wins. Right in the middle of the dogfight for the AL East title, just like last season.

If only Pythagoras were still alive …

Prediction: 90-72

Top 10 Prospects
1.Dustin McGowan RHP
2.David Purcey LHP
3.Ricardo Romero LHP
4.Josh Banks RHP
5.Ryan Patterson OF
6.Adam Lind OF
7.Casey Janssen RHP
8.Francisco Rosario RHP
9.Brandon League RHP
10.Curtis Thigpen C

Comments (3)

By Sully, 3/1/2006 4:35 pm

A very, very fit Manny Ramirez has reported to Ft. Myers, and he had this to say.

“I got a beautiful career going on and I’m not gonna let little things like this mess [up] all the things that I accomplished because I think when I finish my career I’m gonna be a special player and I’m not gonna let nobody stop that and that’s me. I got a goal for myself and I’m now gonna accomplish that.”

Amen, brother man. Amen.

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By Jimmy,

Oakland Athletics
2005: 88-74 2nd in the AL West

Projected Lineup:
CF Mark Kotsay
2B Mark Ellis
3B Eric Chavez
SS Bobby Crosby
RF Milton Bradley
DH Frank Thomas
1B Dan Johnson
C Jason Kendall
LF Nick Swisher

Projected Rotation:
Barry Zito
Rich Harden
Danny Haren
Esteban Loaiza
Joe Blanton

Closer:
Huston Street

Outlook:
Like clockwork, pundits claimed the down fall of Athletic civilization last year. Online, there were casinos that had futures bets on the A’s wins for 2005. The line was usually in the neighborhood of 77 wins. All season long, there were lamentations of the lost Oakland franchise due to the forced departures of Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. I mean, what has Danny Haren ever done anyway?

In 2005, the A’s started out mediocre enough, buoyed at .500 completely on the strength of their pitching. When May Day hit, the bottom fell out of their staff, and with an anemic offense, the A’s hit a low point of 17-32 on May 29. What did you expect? They traded superstars Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder for basically nothing!

Funny thing happened over the next 75 games. The A’s ended up winning almost 60 of them, and ended up in first place. September and October were not nearly as kind, but the team that experts picked to finish last, and gamblers picked to win about 77 games, finished 2nd, and won 88.

For this season, the A’s continued to tinker with their squad, building around the core of the ball club. Nominal spare parts like Keith Ginter and Scott Hatteberg were jettisoned; sent to exotic locals like Sacramento and Cincinnati. The Keiichi Yabu experience ended with a ticket to the unemployment line followed by an exile to the 8th circle of hell (apparently if you are guilty of deliberate, knowing evil, you are sent to Colorado). Billy Beane’s White Whale was unceremoniously dismissed by virtue of declination of sweet arbitration. Eurbiel Durazo eventually signed with Texas on a minor league contract, left to stew while Phil Nevin gets paid more to suck. On the plus side, the Hornets will probably make the playoffs this year, so it’s not like there isn’t anything for Ruby to do once camp breaks.

Beane, never one to sit idly by, startled his sabermetrically-inclined brethren by tossing a goodly amount of money at Esteban Loaiza for the next three years. Beane also resigned Jay Witasick, making all those A’s fans with “Witasick 45” jerseys happy. Despite having four outfielders that range from pretty good (Mark Kotsay) to borderline useful (Jay Payton), Beane traded nice looking outfield prospect Andrew Either to the Dodgers for Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez. Upon hearing that he would be traded to the Athletics, Bradley responded “F*** you, honky-ass m****f*****. Get the f*** out of my way a**h***.”

I love Milton Bradley.

Of course there was also the “should I stay or should I go” drama of Ken Macha. If he stayed there would be trouble. If he left, it would be double. So he let me know, that he should stay and should not go. I make a promise to you, the reader, that I will never do anything like this again. Machavelli stays in Oakland is what I’m basically saying. Do you wanna ride or die la dadada, la la la la.

In 2006, there is a familiar problem facing the Oakland team. Barry Zito is eligible for free agency for the first time in his career. It used to be when this situation comes up, Beane tosses a gauntlet down in spring training and says, “Here is our offer.” If the player accepts, he gets to drink some beers with Eric Chavez for the better part of the decade. If he refuses, he develops parasites or has to play with guys that look like Jay Gibbons, otherwise known as God’s cruel joke on those who smite The Billy. Beane bucked that trend last year when he turned Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson into Juan Cruz, Kiko Calero, Danny Haren, Dan Meyer, Charles Thomas, and Daric Barton. Rather than get the four picks that would have been happily surrendered by teams signing 2/3’s of HMZ, Beane cashed in those chips for three live arms (Haren seems to know how to pitch, Cruz doesn’t, and Calero can’t stay healthy), a 6th outfielder, and two A prospects (Meyer has fallen off a bit, Barton kicks ass like a batting ninja).

Zito is pitching on a vested option, earning $8.5 million a year. The rate decline that lead to predictions of doom by the Sabr crowd (I was in this group) stabilized last year. Meyer probably needs another year of seasoning, making the loss of Zito more palatable for 2007. It’s like there is a Choose Your Own Adventure here for Beane. On page 36, he offers 5 years/$55 million for a pitcher that isn’t worth it, or he can go to page 63 and say “Take 3 years/$30 million, or enjoy pitching for the Mets next year.” Can’t you see Beane fist pump as he flips to page 89 and realizes that he takes Todd Frazier from Rutgers in the 2007 draft with someone else’s pick.

Zito’s strike out rate and command have both improved since he was deemed mediocre towards the end of the 2003 season. He’s still not worthy of the praise a 23 win year when he was 24 affords him now, but at the very least, Zito is a good tandem starter at the top of the rotation. All he needs to take the pressure off would be to have a complementary skilled starter to co-ace with him.

That would be a righty flame thrower. Or Rich Harden. The only real thing keeping Harden from being an elite starter in the American League is his inability so far to stay healthy for any real amount of time. Two quick Harden facts:
1. He gave up the home run to Trot Nixon in game 3 of the 2003 ALDS that caused my friend Jack to jump in my arms (I was 4 weeks removed from breaking my leg), and me stumbling back and ripping someone’s shirt.
2. He’s Canadian, and I’m assuming that Beane made terrorist threats to Parliament to keep them from even thinking about putting him on any WBC rosters. This was kind of lame, so I’ll also reveal his real first name…James.

Last year, when I wrote the preview for the A’s, I made a bunch of drug references because Danny Haren looks like a guy that does a lot of heroin. The stereotyping was probably wrong, and to be honest, I don’t remember why I would have thought that:

Haren also was part of the funniest subplot of the WBC: Haren not knowing how he was named on the Dutch roster. According to Haren, his father is 100% Irish, and his mother is 100% Mexican. He’s never been to the Netherlands. So how does he qualify for the Dutch team?

My guess has something to do with the pound of hashish he has in his bag.

That aside, I do like Haren as a player, enough that I think he’ll be the third best starter on staff ahead of Esteban Loaiza and Joe Blanton. Blanton had a good year last year (probably should have been the Rookie of the Year, but the guy who won rules anyway), or I should say as good as you can have pitching in a neutral park while not striking anyone out. I would expect a small amount of regression, but not enough to really worry about Blanton’s long term prospects as a mid-to-upper rotation starter for the A’s.

The story in the rotation is the enigma that is Esteban Loaiza. His career has taken an interesting path, between being a prospect of decent buzz with Pittsburgh, to being a journeyman, to being a Cy Young runner up to being discarded. The 2003 resurgence with Chicago was credited mainly to the development of a cut-fastball, but that same fastball was subject to some serious abuse by ashen sticks the next year, especially after the trade to the Yankees. Last season, Loaiza reverted to being slightly above league average, which is better than he has been most of his career. The big unanswered question is: Why did the A’s pay him a shade more than $21 million? I figure, best case scenario, the A’s get a watered down version of 2003 Loaiza. Worst case, they need to hire guys to sweep the grass in front of the mound so that Loaiza can try to nail a takeout shot, should he have the hammer.

In the pen, the A’s will probably go with Kirk Saarloos (actually Dutch), and Joe Kennedy in longer-stint situations, with whoever is pitching better taking over when the inevitable Harden DL stint comes. In middle relief roles will be two of the older A’s pitchers, Jay Witasick (33) and Kiko Calero (31). I had no idea that Calero was that old. Jario Garcia no longer exists. Say hello to Santiago Castilla!

The A’s also have a pretty good situation in the back of the pen. Huston Street plays the role of designated closer by doing crazy things like saving 23 games and not allowing runs. And he has an ill-gotten Rookie of the Year award to boot, which is nice (I’ll never understand how Street’s 78 innings were more ROYish than anything Jonny Gomes or Joe Blanton did). Playing the part of Jamesian reliever for these smart Moneyballers is All-Star ™ Justin Duchscherer. The last two years, Duke has been pretty great as a long man/set up man/middle man…basically everything except a starter or a closer. I would have just nodded my head if the Red Sox traded Doug Mirabelli to the A’s for Duke this offseason.

Last season, the A’s thought they had upgraded their offense at catcher, moving from Damian Miller to Jason Kendall. In what might be Billy Beane’s worst trade in recent memory, Redman and Rhodes ended up not pitching poorly (Redman was the best pitcher the Pirates had last year until Zack Duke came along, and Rhodes was pretty lights out for Cleveland) while Kendall was paid $9 million to have an on-base higher than his slugging. Never much of a home run threat, Kendall was shut out in the round-tripper department and posted his lowest on base in four years. Not only that, he grounded into 27 double plays, which means he officially destroyed more scoring chances then he caused. He did strike out under 40 times though. Woo hoo.

Dan Johnson officially keeps first base warm for the A’s until Daric Barton is ready to take over in the next few seasons. In just over 100 games, the 25 year old played well enough to rip the starting first base title from Scott Hatteberg, and ended up being one of the A’s better hitters last year, which is something like being the fastest quadriplegic. Across the diamond from Johnson is Eric Chavez, whose ascend to Uber-stardom was derailed by a pedestrian season. His batting average only fell five points, but his on base lost 68 and his slugging was down 35. There should be some rebound, but Chavez isn’t a 22-year-old kid anymore. His chances of being an elite player are narrowing as he comes closer to 30. For the lighter side of Chavvy, check out his sponsor on Baseball-reference. He watches every game.

Mark Ellis had the best year of his career last year, by a large margin, after missing 2004 with a shoulder that was torn up so much his career was in jeopardy. The causer of the injury, Bobby Crosby, is still living in Miguel Tejada’s shadow. Crosby would be an all star if he could ever mix his 2005 numbers with his 2004 health. He’ll be 26 this year, so the clock is still ticking.

Frank Thomas remains a scary hitter than can’t stay healthy, and is having some trouble making contact when he is in the lineup. When he does though, the ball goes about 400 feet. Look for May 22nd when Thomas is arrested for savagely beating Kenny Williams to death with his cleats.

The A’s do have a surplus of outfielders. Bobby Kielty and Jay Payton should both probably only play against left handers, but they are both above average fielders. Payton has more power, and Kielty is wiser in ways of the strike zone, but they would both be integral parts of an outfield rotation for a team like Boston (just ask Payton). On the A’s, however, they are pretty redundant, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them is moved before Spring Training is over.

As for the starters, the kid compared to Lenny Dykstra will probably win the left field job outright in camp. Nick Swisher struggled in his rookie year, but showed more power than originally expected. He’s another Athletic whose time to become a star is waning because of his age (he’s 26). On the other hand, he’ll always have a place on the A’s with his good walk rate (Iso: .086) and his clubhouse friendly chin pubes. Milton Bradley is a nice man who has no shortcomings, other than the ability to stay on the field. I made a joke about him last year and once in this one, and frankly, I’m afraid for my life. Much love Game. Mark Kotsay looks like a date rapist, but should bounce back due to it being an even year.

The A’s seem to be on the same track as last year, in the midst of a youth movement. The question is, are the players that are currently on the team good enough to be the core of a championship ball club? Of the players with star power, they all either have injury issues (Chavez/Harden) or contract issues (Zito), which are tough players to build around with complementary parts like the Nick Swisher’s, and Dan Johnson’s. If there is a failing with the Beane team construction ethos, it’s that the team tended to draft for economy/safety rather than ceiling. The Mulder trade (Barton) and the Hudson trade (Meyer) relieved some of the pressure on the guys in the high minors from having to step in and produce as much as the men they replaced (specifically Crosby for Tejada) by possibly being focal points of an organization (like Chavez was supposed to be and still can be I suppose).

The 2006 season is critical for the Athletics. At the end of the year, they need to map out their plan for the next couple so they don’t waste the plateau of Chavez’s prime seasons. If they win 80-89 games again, the evaluation of their young guys will determine the organization’s path over the latter part of the decade. Make a mistake with Meyer or Barton (for example) and they’ll regress back into what the A’s were in the late 90s. The conventional wisdom is that Beane is too smart for that, and there is no reason to doubt him until he loses that edge that the A’s seem to have over their opponents (especially in the latter part of the year). The days of 100 win teams on the East Bay might be over, but there is enough talent in the organization right now to at least steal a division or two over the next four years.

They might even win a playoff series.

Prediction: 91-71

Top 10 prospects
1. Daric Barton 1B
2. Javier Harrera OF
3. Kevin Melillo 2B
4. Cliff Pennington SS
5. Danny Putnam OF
6. Craig Italiano RHP
7. Travis Buck OF
8. Shane Komine RHP
9. Dan Meyer LHP
10. Kurt Suzuki C