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By Sully, 4/13/2006 8:26 am

Hart nails my thoughts…check it out – a funny and spot-on strip.

There wasn’t much to it. David Wells got pounded, and that was that. Boston was able to show off their depth a bit, as Wily Mo Pena and Dustan Mohr, filling in for Trot Nixon and Coco Crisp, each homered. So that was nice.

Other than that, Coco Crisp was signed to an extension yesterday. I like it, a good pre-arb lock-up of a player likely to be one of the better players at his position over the life of the deal.

I’m going to my first game tonight and I can’t wait.

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By Sully, 4/12/2006 8:19 am

Short on time but here is what went down…

- Josh Beckett started slow but then really settled down.

- Mike Lowell hit 1.000/1.000/1.750 on the day.

- Adam Stern hit a big double, had 2 RBI and a run.

- Wily Mo Pena looked equally bad in the field and at the plate.

- David Ortiz hit a home run.

– Keith Foulke looked shaky.

- Jonathan Papelbon continued to dazzle, nailing down the save with a perfect ninth inning.

Here’s the box score.

Oh and do yourself favor and try and catch Bronson Arroyo’s home run yesterday. Not only did he become the first Goo-Goo Dolls cover artist and right-handed pitcher to homer in consecutive starts to begin a season, but he hit yesterday’s clear out of Wrigley and even pimped it, flipping the bat and immediately burying his head. He mixed in a little Rickey Henderson-circuitous-route-down-the-line for good measure too. And good grief his hair looks just ridiculous…so many things going on with Bronson these days I don’t even know what to make of him, but he really makes me laugh for one reason or another.

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By Mullet, 4/11/2006 6:21 am

Cubs Sign Lee to $65mm Extension

Apparently the new hotness is signing 30 year old 1B sluggers to huge long term contracts. Lee’s deal is for a little bit more than Ortizzle’s, which is fair, given that he’s a legit Gold Glove defender at 1B. His track record isn’t quite the track record of David Ortiz, but Derrek Lee was a pretty great player even before the hugeness of last season.

Now let’s just wait and see what Albert Pujols gets the next time his deal is up.

Down Goes Chipper!

As discussed yesterday, Chipper Jones is hurt and the Braves placed him on the DL. It’s not terribly surprising to see the 34 yo Jones injured. He’s back at 3B, which probably isn’t a huge savings in wear and tear on his body, and he’s now 3 seasons removed from his last relatively injury free year.

For you Braves fans, this means you get to see two weeks of Wilson Betemit. That’s really not as horrible as it sounds.

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By Sully,

So Coco Crisp was initially said to be fine…and then it was reported he would miss 6-8 weeks with a broken finger…only to have the Red Sox release tell a different story.

”With a nondisplaced fracture, it should heal fairly quickly,” said McCue, who did not examine Crisp. ”Ten days might be too soon, but in three weeks it should heal.

Ah, gotta love a Red Sox news cycle. Better to be first than right!

Anyway, while there is no real way to spin this as good news at this point, there is a silver lining. Adam Stern should get a chance to show that he is capable of being an average full-time Major League center fielder, something I suspect he is pretty close to being. If it does turn out that Stern can in fact play, he could be a useful bench part or a nice trade chit down the road.

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By Jimmy, 4/10/2006 2:28 pm

Note: I had this written out before news of his finger got out, so the chances of him scoring 150+ runs is completely dead.

There is a question presented based on if Crisp can score 152 runs this year, using his 594 at bats as the guide.

The baseline isn’t Crisp’s 594 AB’s…it’s 656 plate appearences. Also, it assumes Crisp’s .332 on base is his true talent. I would actually say it’s .344, since that what he’s done the last two years. While playing in Cleveland, which is one of the best pitcher’s parks in the American League.

So let me play around a bit:
1. Assume Crisp gets 690 PA’s. This is a function of him moving to the lead off spot on a better offensive team. This also assumes he doesn’t get hurt. Damon had 702 in 2004, and 688 in 2005.
2. Assume that his baseline for ob% is .344 (.344 in 2004, and .345 in 2005)
3. Because the guys most likely to drive him in are Ortiz and Manny, and Crisp has more power than Damon did last year, lets assume he’ll score 46.5% times he reaches base.

With those assumtions, which are all reasonable, first thing we have to do is figure out what his on base would be for playing half his games at Fenway. The American League on base last year was .330. That makes the park on base adjustment for the Jake .979. The Fenway adjustment is 1.006.

Next, you adjust Crisp’s baseline of .344 to the American League average, which means to divide .344 by the Jake adjustment. This brings it to .351. Then you adjust it to Fenway by mulitplying. This brings Crisp’s baseline to .354.

What all this means is that Crisp’s .344 on base, in terms of value, is the same as posting a .354 in Fenway. This does not mean that Crisp would have reached base 35.4% of the time. I’m just using this as a projection.

So, in the first given, we have Crisp coming to the plate 690 times. Apply his new .354 on base, and you have him reaching base 244 times.

Of these 244 times, he scores 46.5% of the time. This gives him 113 runs. Even if you give a +/-, he’ll score between 108-118…nowhere near 152.

At the end of all this, I would say Crisp has a less than 1% chance of scoring 152 runs.

Note 2: David Ortiz signed a four year contract extention with an option for 2011.

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By Mullet,

A quick one this morning.

Cubs Extend GM Hendry

“We have all the confidence in the world that he’s capable of getting us to the World Series,” MacPhail said.

While Hendry did have the team within spitting distance of a World Series, I think the jury is largely out on whether or not he’s a good GM. On one hand, he’s acquired Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. On the other hand, he’s got Neifi Perez sucking up at-bats with Todd Walker up the middle, and gave up a some prospects and some money to fill 2/3rds of his OF with Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones.

My gut is that Hendry is one of those middle of the road GMs, competent enough to cover up his mistakes with the big money that the Cubs have to spend. Will he fix his gravest mistake by letting Dusty Baker move on?

Jones, Giles Hurt Against Giants

Neither is expected to be out for more than a couple of days, but even if they were, the Braves probably have two guys in A-ball who’d they call up and would hit ridiculously well for a month while Jones and Giles recovered. I think the entire Braves major league squad could fall into the hole at the “Springfield Mystery Spot” with Ozzie Smith and the minor leaguers called up would still perform well enough to make the playoffs. I don’t get it, but the Braves just don’t run out of talent.

Just keep them away from Ken Griffey and his grotesquely swollen jaw.

Reds Acquire Brandon Phillips for a “Whirrled Peas” Bumper Sticker and a Rick Cerrone Rookie Card

Actually, it was cash and a player to be named later. Possibly Rick Cerrone.

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By Sully,

Everyone in the Red Sox rotation has now turned in a quality start after Tim Wakefield avenged his Arlington debacle yesterday afternoon. Wakefield gave up five hits and two walks in six innings yesterday while the offense did enough against Bob Gibson Rodrigo Lopez to notch Boston’s fifth victory in six games.

After the sixth, Wakefield handed the ball off to Mike Timlin, who once again looked tremendous. Keith Foulke followed Timlin and tossed a 12-pitch breeze of an inning, striking out two and inducing a bunt pop-out to 1st Base for the third out. Foulke was hitting 89 MPH on the gun and his change-up looked devastating. With a three-run lead and Foulke looking good, Terry Francona had an opportunity to demonstrate that he would defy today’s convention and stick with Foulke, who had been effective and was still fresh. Moreover, this was a three-run game and a perfect opportunity to remind Foulke he was still important and get him his first save of the season in a most benign scenario. Looks like I jumped the gun. Whereas I had believed Keith Foulke had been supplanted at CLOSER by “relief ace” Jonathan Papelbon, it now appears that Papelbon is the CLOSER because, you know, there is no way Keith Foulke (or anyone else for that matter) could have gotten three outs with a three-run lead in the ninth inning. Oh well. Papelbon came in, gave up a hit, hit Miguel Tejada and then bore down and closed the O’s out for the series sweep.

The Home Opener is Tuesday, and Josh Beckett will be on the hill to greet the Fenway faithful. Something tells me they’re gonna like the kid.

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By Sully, 4/9/2006 8:12 am

I intended to write my annual Boston Red Sox preview this weekend but I fear it may already be obsolete. I shouldn’t really say “fear” because, truth be told, I am elated that the gist of my preview would already come off sounding like it didn’t even apply to the 2006 Red Sox. My piece was to center around the bevy of question marks the Sox feature, and how even though they had a good crack at making the postseason, they just as easily could have a 2000 or 2001 style “blah” campaign in which any number of things go wrong. There was the distinct possibility that Curt Schilling was “Curt Schilling” no more, that he left it all out on the Fenway mound in Game 2 of the 2004 World Series. Was Trot Nixon finished, injuries and a precipitous early-thirties decline doing in the 2003 terror? And what were we to make of Mike Lowell? Was the rock solid contributor up until 2005 going to re-appear, or was that fork sticking out of his back irremovable? Was Mark Loretta over the hill, Coco Crisp ready for Boston or Kevin Youkilis for a full-time gig? What about the bullpen? Were we going to have to endure more Keith Foulke lollipops and sit in denial about our soft-tossing closer? “He can get people out at 87, just not at 85.” Right. Which brings us to the manager. Would he be able to exercise the sort of good judgment we never have really seen him use with respect to the optimization of the resources available to him? We knew he had the parts, but would he figure out a way to use them?

Five days into the season, we are already getting some answers and the early returns are magnificent. Curt Schilling is 2-0, has tossed seven innings in each of his starts and is sitting in the mid-nineties. Yes we are only two starts in, yes I tend to be more of a “performance analyst,” as the BP folks would say, than one to draw conclusions based upon mere observations. But I am comfortable making some assertions here. Curt Schilling is much, much better than he was in 2005, and if he can start to develop more life on his split-fingered fastball, I will comfortably proclaim him all the way back to 2004 form. He is almost there, he is just lacking his signature, hammer strikeout pitch. But he is a good part of the ways back. Two of Boston’s other starters looked very strong too, as Josh Beckett and Matt Clement each tossed seven innings in their 2006 debuts. Tim Wakefield stunk up Ameriqust Field in his first outing of the year but he’ll do that, and we will see how he bounces back today.

In the bullpen, the early signals have been mixed. Newcomers David Riske and Rudy Seanez have been awful, while Keith Foulke doesn’t appear to be back to his once great self. Terry Francona has already made what may turn out to be the most critical managerial decision of his Boston tenure. He made a proactive strike, handing the highest leverage innings to date to Jonathan Papelbon after just one poor Foulke outing. Papelbon has responded in his three innings by striking out four and not allowing a base runner. This is a great sign, for reasons I went into earlier this week. To be perfectly honest, if Riske and Seanez continue to suck, and Francona is wearing his proactive cap this season, that may be for the best. The sooner Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen join Jonathan Papelbon in the Boston bullpen, the better in my opinion.

Offensively, there isn’t much to say. Manny has started off a tad slow and Alex Gonzalez has more or less come as advertised (he really can’t hit) but everyone else looks very good. People here are going to love – and I mean love – Coco Crisp. He is lightning quick, mixes in some pop, is a general pain in the ass on the base paths, and, to get a little Gammo on you, effervescent. He’s just a ton of fun. Crisp has scored six runs in five games. Trot Nixon and Mike Lowell, two of the very biggest question marks on the offensive side, both have looked good early. Mark Loretta looks more 2004 than 2005, and Kevin Youkilis is playing the part of a full-timer quite nicely. David Ortiz and Jason Varitek have been their typical, productive selves. It’s all very encouraging.

The Red Sox figured to be a team with an inordinately large variance of potential outcomes for 2006 given the nature of the team’s composition. The Red Sox feature some old players that need to prove they are still effective, some young players that also need to prove they can play consistently and they also feature some players with significant injury risk. Toss in a heretofore indecisive manager and it all added up to a club that could win 80 or 105. There was just no way to know. Well I don’t want to overstate anything too early on in the season but with Curt Schilling effective and tossing in the mid-nineties, some of the older players imitating their younger versions and the manager making it a point to get the best players in the most critical situations, all I am saying is that I think we can crop the low end of the variance in. I am as optimistic about this Red Sox team as any I have been over the last five years. Call me a fanboy, call me irrational since I am basing some of my enthusiasm upon five games but I don’t care. Like the mainstream media says, I know what my eyes have told me.

*********************************************************

Yesterday’s game, like Wednesday night’s in Arlington, was just a joy to watch. Curt Schilling was on and ended his outing in style, with a 96 MPH fast ball to blow away Jeff Conine with the go-ahead runner on base. The offense did what it needed to against the crafty Bruce Chen and an impressive trio of Oriole relievers in Sendy Rleal, LaTroy Hawkins and Chris Ray. Mike Timlin and Jonathan Papelbon pitched the eighth and ninth respectively and both featured tremendous command, which was particularly encouraging in Timlin’s case, as I thought he had looked a bit spotty earlier in the week.

Today offers a good test. Tim Wakefield will try and bounce back in Baltimore against Rodrigo Lopez, a pitcher against whom the Sox always struggle. Enjoy, but with remote in hand. Like this Red Sox team, the 2006 Masters is shaping up into something special too.

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By Sully, 4/8/2006 8:40 am

Here is the game story. I didn’t see much of it, so I am not going to go into any real detail on the game itself.

Looking around the boxscores, I noticed two matters that helped teams win their games yesterday but could hamper long-term hopes by giving decision makers a wrong first impression for 2006. Dusty Baker started Neifi Perez over Todd Walker yesterday. Walker had been one of the Cubs’ better hitters in their first two games but Baker wanted to get the better defensive second baseman, Neifi, in there with Greg Maddux on the hill. Well wouldn’t you know it, Perez was 3-for-4 yesterday with a double and a run scored. Perez killed the Cubs in 2005, hitting .274/.298/.383 in over 600 plate appearances. If he is allowed to log more regular time as a result of yesterday’s performance, he once again will do harm to the Cubs’ hopes.

The second incident is closer to our hearts. With a big lead, Terry Francona correctly allowed Trot Nixon, a better right fielder than Wily Mo Pena, to stay in the game even though southpaw Eric DuBose had come in to relieve Daniel Cabrera. Trot’s struggles against left handers are famous, but yesterday he managed a two-run homer. This was an anomaly, trust me. If Tito now thinks Trot can all of a sudden hit lefties and eschews Wily Mo Pena against them, it will badly hurt the Sox’s chances over the long haul.

Two incidents, two good short-term results, two potentially disastrous occurrences if the managers place too much stock in them.

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By Mullet, 4/7/2006 6:45 am

Dickey Allows 6 HRs in 4 innings to Tigers

“If you look for positives, some of the homers were solos, but I’m really reaching,” Texas manager Buck Showalter said.

The scoring summary in this game is pretty great:
B Inge homered to left.
M Ordonez homered to left.
C Shelton homered to left.
C Shelton homered to left.
C Monroe homered to left, C Guillen scored.
M Thames homered to left.

The Rangers are thin on pitching with Adam Eaton on the DL, and newly acquired Robinson Tejeda in AAA. But I think it’s time to bring John Wasdin back up to the big club. Even “Way Back” Wasdin never gave up 6 bombs in 3.1 innings. It takes a special kind of pitcher to give up 2 homers an inning.

Gagne Out Indefinitely for Elbow Surgery

“I wouldn’t say that,” Johnston replied when asked if Gagne might miss the entire season. “After the surgeons get finished, there will be a timetable.”

That’s like a parent telling a child “Yes, after you finish your beets, there will be a timetable for us to go to Toys ‘R’ Us.” It ain’t happening.

Enjoy your tenure as GM, Mr. Colletti.

Rollins Hit Streak Over at 38 Games

Weak.

Ok, it was a pretty cool streak, especially given that he wrapped it across two seasons. But it hasn’t really helped the Phillies, and it’s somewhat inflated the value of Rollins, who’s more akin to Julio Lugo than he is to Miguel Tejada.

Since making his first trip to the All-Star game as a rookie, Rollins has been overshadowed by bigger-name shortstops such as Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada and Nomar Garciaparra.

The overshadowed player here is Michael Young, who’s been just about as valuable as Miguel Tejada over the past two seasons, but folks continually seem to forget even exists.

Comments (1)

By Sully, 4/6/2006 7:38 am

I can vouch for SG here when he writes that Yankee coverage, and in particular the YES Network, has gotten out of hand with respect to whom and how they criticize.

I’m tired of Jeter being above criticism. Like Joe Torre, who blew the game yesterday by saving Mariano Rivera’s arm to pitch with a lead that never came, certain people in the Yankee organization are immune to second-guessing, while others have every little thing they do criticized.

Derek Jeter was awful last night, and as responsible for New York’s loss as any other player, just as Joe Torre was the night before. But you won’t hear that from any mainstream outlet.

Having made my $160 investment in the MLB Extra Innings package, I have taken in bits and pieces of the last couple of Yankee games and it is borderline unwatchable, not so much beause their announcers aren’t the brightest bulbs like some of the other teams’, but more because Michael Kay and company offer a special combination of smugness and willful ignorance that’s just intolerable. We really have been spoiled over the years with Sean and Jerry and, to a lesser extent, Don and Jerry.

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By Mullet,

Griffey, Jr. Hits 537th HR, Moves to 12th All-time

Griffey passes Mantle (who’s one of his most comparable players) and continues to build on his already solid HOF case. Looking at his numbers, it’s strange to see a guy who peaked at age 23-24 (where he was unworldly), before settling into being simply great. I think Griffey’s actually going to lose some lustre with time, as his numbers, when you compare them to some of his contemporaries, weren’t the best in the league. He has continually been (until his recent spate of injuries) a fantastic hitter with the ability to play one of the toughest defensive positions. Now he’s a really good hitter and a horrible defender and badly needs to be traded to the AL where he can DH 3 or 4 times a week.

Elsewhere on the Reds …

Arroyo Strikes Out 7, Goes Deep in First Reds Win

Everyone knew the ball was gone long before it landed in the left-field seats, 403 feet away. Arroyo dropped his head and rounded the bases briskly, his shoulder-length hair flapping behind his helmet.

“I was in another world after hitting it out,” said Arroyo, who hadn’t hit one since high school.

Wily Mo Pena: 1 for 1, 1 2B, 1.000/1.000/2.000
Bronson Arroyo: 1 for 1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1.000/1.000/4.000

Baseball is a strange game.

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By Sully, 4/5/2006 10:43 pm

Well that was some good fun, no? The Red Sox took the rubber match in Arlington tonight, 2-1, on the strength of some great pitching, a clutch homer and a brutal third-base coaching gaffe by the Rangers. Josh Beckett looked magnificent, Trot Nixon delivered in a big way and the Sox may have found a new closer. Let’s chalk one up for erring on the proactive side, something Terry Francona could not really have been accused of in the past. With a one-run lead after eight-and-a-half innings, Francona took the ball from veteran Mike Timlin, eschewed proven closer Keith Foulke and called upon youngster Jonathan Papelbon to nail the game down in the bottom of the ninth. And nail it down he did, retiring the Rangers in order and striking out two to record the save.

We’ve been down this road before but let me say it again. This team has the parts to win with consistency. If J.T. Snow is going to continue to get regular at bats, he will hurt this team. He will hurt them because he will be taking at bats from Kevin Youkilis or he will hurt them because he will be playing in place of Hee-Seop Choi or he will hurt them because Mike Lowell will be riding the pine but most of all he will be hurting them because he sucks. J.T. Snow jacked two balls tonight – and I mean jacked – only to see both come up about 15 feet short of the right field warning track. He has no power whatsoever, and there just aren’t enough roster spots available to a baseball club to carry a full-time defensive replacement at 1st Base. The sooner he is replaced by Choi, the better all of us who care a little too much about such things will be for it. Let’s hope Francona is resourceful and proactive this season, just as he was tonight, catering less to the good ol’ boys veteran clubhouse cabal and more to, you know, ability.

How novel.

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By Mullet,

Hanley Ramirez Goes 4 for 5 for Marlins
<boblobel>Why can’t we get guys like that?</boblobel>

In all seriousness, I really do think Hanley’s going to turn out to be a good player, I really wish we hadn’t had to give up he (and Sanchez) to get Beckett and his $9mm friend, and I wish that we had a SS on our roster who could hit. But I suppose it’s not long before Dustin Pedroia’s making some noise and they need to find a spot for him.

The Sports Guy Chronicles Opening Day (and I feel a little dumber for reading it …)

11:22 — You know, Michael Young’s 2005 batting title was kinda like “Shakespeare in Love’s” Oscar back in 1998 — I know it happened, but I’m not quite willing to accept it. Are we sure Ichiro didn’t win last season? We’re positive?

Yes – it is astounding that one of the two best offensive SS in baseball won a batting title.

We also learned from Remy that Crisp has the green light to steal whenever he wants. I always wondered how this works. Does Francona just send Crisp a “Yo, I forgot to tell you, you have the green light” e-mail? Does he call Crisp into his office and tell him? Does he quietly break the news during a baserunning meeting? Do other players get jealous that Crisp has the green light? Is this roughly the equivalent of giving your wife carte blanche on your credit card, when you eventually learn to regret it? I need more info.

And now my brains are officially bleeding out of my ears.

I hope this didn’t sound too harsh. I generally like Simmons, particularly when he’s writing about the NBA (but not about the Celtics–he’s far too tight with some folks there to be objective or rational). But, over the past few seasons, when he writes about baseball, he’s not “joe fan”. He’s “obnoxious joe fan who sits behind you in the bleachers and thinks its funny to make French jokes about Jacque Jones because his name is Jacque and Jacque is French and it’s FUNNY! and he’s drunk and now he fell down the stairs at Fenway and knocked over some little kid and here comes security and ooh look shiny!”

Nomar to the DL, Loney Up

It feels better today, which is good,” said Garciaparra. “Everybody who’s been around this kind of injury says that one swing and you could take a thousand steps backward. We can knock it out now and get healthy so it won’t linger the whole year. I believe it will be only a two-week thing.

Sorry Nomar. I love you in a manly way, but, at this point, I don’t think you’d shake a hangnail in less than a month.

In a very timely way, I’m currently reading the Steroids chapter in Baseball Prospectus’ book: Baseball Between the Numbers (which is just fantastic and makes you realize more how much of a bag of crap Mind Game was–I will not link to that book, as I don’t want to encourage anyone to read it). One of the nice points that’s brought up is that steroids won’t necessarily help players get better, as the increased muscle mass can bring about a reduction in flexibility and an increase in injuries.

I don’t know whether or not Nomar juiced. But he certainly worked hard to change his body type to become more muscular, and I don’t think there’s a doubt he reduced his flexibility. It cost him defensively in the field, and it’s cost him with a long stretch of nagging injuries that have moved him from a first ballot Hall of Famer to a second or third ballot Hall of Famer (but yes, I still think he’ll get in and be deserving, if he can have another one or two productive seasons). Sad.

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By Sully,

Vicente Padilla outpitched Tim Wakefield last night and there wasn’t really a whole lot more to the game as the Sox went down in Arlington, 10-4. Alex Cora and Josh Bard in the same lineup may start to drive me nuts and I hope it dawns on Terry Francona sooner rather than later that Wily Mo Pena needs to be worked in there whenever possible (to say nothing of Hee-Seop Choi upon his return). Also, David Riske looked just awful. On the bright side Coco Crisp has looked great at the top of the lineup and David Ortiz was on base three out of five times. Manny Ramirez looks a bit lost at the plate but he’ll do that. Ain’t no thang.

Taking two of three in Texas against an improved Rangers club would be a fine result so there is no real reason to worry about last night. Sometimes the knuck don’t knuck. Josh Beckett will face Kameron Loe this evening.

Comments (1)

By Sully, 4/4/2006 7:59 pm

I have watched bits and pieces of about six baseball games in the last two days and the home plate umpiring has been atrocious. Specifically jumping to mind was the early portion of yesterday’s Rangers-Sox game, the 1st inning called third strike to Johnny Damon on a high curve ball from Barry Zito last night, a called third strike on Rondell White that was about a centimeter off the dirt in the top half of the sixth from Roy Halladay this evening and in the same game, just an awful squeezing of Johan Santana with Russ Adams up. Santana threw five consecutive strikes, only to walk Adams who never even considered taking the bat off his shoulder.

Anyone else noticing this? Or is my perception of reality more distorted than I would like to think?

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By Mullet,

I’m going to try and pull together interesting news from around baseball each day, and mix it with some snarky commentary (when possible … there are things even I can’t snark about). I’ll probably use some fun tools like the newly released Ballbug, old fave del.icio.us, and maybe mix in some Technorati.

Lackey Signs 3-year Deal with Angels

Lackey will get $3.01 million this year with a $1 million signing bonus. He will make $5.5 million in 2007, $7 million in 2008 and can make between $9 million and 10.5 million in the 2009 option year depending on incentives. The Angels also hold a $500,000 buyout for 2009.

This is a pretty good deal for the Angels on a pitcher who’s only 27 and took a huge step forward last year (increasing his K rate to 8.56/9 and dropping his HR rate to .56/9). He’s cheap for 2 years, and if he performs reasonably well, it makes the latter 2 season of his deal that much more palatable. No snark here.

Pirates Give Littlefield 1 Year Extension

The Pirates and general manager Dave Littlefield agreed Monday to a one-year contract extension through 2008, the second time in three seasons he got a new deal on opening day.

Pittsburgh has gone through 13 straight losing seasons. Littlefield was hired on July 13, 2001, and the Pirates are 314-407 since then.

Is there better job security than being GM in Pittsburgh? Cam Bonifay sucked for years and got to keep his job even through “Operation Shutdown.” Maybe Jack Wilson can threaten “Operation No-hit.”

At least Nate McLouth made the roster. I picked him out as my fave minor leaguer a couple of seasons ago, and now he’s my fave player on the best minor league team in all of baseball (the Pirates, of course).

Rollins Continues Hit Streak in Last AB

Down eight runs with four outs left, Jimmy Rollins wasn’t looking for a walk with his hitting streak on the line.

Rollins is a slacker. A real man would have continued his hit streak in his first at-bat. None of these last at-bat shenanigans. Besides, if Rollins was a real man, he would have stepped into pitch for Phils, since Jon Lieber apparently forgot how.

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By Sully,

A perfect Opening Day in just about every respect. The two biggest questions on this team in my opinion, Curt Schilling and Mike Lowell, were key factors in Boston’s first Opening Day win since 2000.

As some of you may have deduced from my extended absence, real life matters have taken over of late and figure to continue to do so for the next few days. By this weekend, I should be back to near-daily updates. Also, my Sox preview will be up by Sunday. I am going to wait until the first Yanks series to go into real depth on their club.

Thanks for your understanding.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 4/3/2006 11:13 am

Rangers roster:
Lineup
C Rod Barajas
1b Mark Teixeira
2b Ian Kinsler
3b Hank Blalock
SS Mike Young
LF Kevin Mench
CF Brad Wilkerson
RF Laynce Nix
DH Phil Nevin

Bench
C Gerald Laird
INF Mark DeRosa
INF D’Angelo Jimenez
OF Adrian Brown

Rotation
Kevin Millwood*
Vicente Padilla*
Kameron Loe*
RA Dickey
Jon Koronka

Bullpen
Antonio Alfonseca
Joaquin Benoit
Fabio Castro
Scott Fieldman
Akinori Otsuka
Brian Shouse

Save collector
Francisco Cordero

Red Sox roster:
Lineup
C Jason Varitek
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Mark Loretta
3B Mike Lowell
SS Alex Gonzalez
LF Manny Ramirez
CF Coco Crisp
RF Trot Nixon
DH David Ortiz

Bench
C Josh Bard
1b JT Snow
INF Alex Cora
OF Wily Mo Pena
OF Adam Stern

Rotation
Curt Schilling*
Tim Wakefield*
Josh Beckett*
Matt Clement

Bullpen
Lenny DiNardo
Jonathan Papelbon
David Riske
Rudy Seanez
Julian Tavarez
Mike Timlin

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Keith Foulke

Monday: Schilling vs. Millwood 2:05 pm
Tuesday: Wakefield vs. Padilla 8:05 pm
Wedneday: Beckett vs. Loe 8:05 pm

Rangers pitcher profiles:
Kevin Millwood
k9 trend
2003 PHI: 6.85
2004 PHI: 7.98
2005 CLE: 6.84

k:bb trend
2003 PHI: 2.49
2004 PHI: 2.45
2005 CLE: 2.81

gb/fb trend:
2003 PHI: 1.04
2004 PHI: 1.10
2005 CLE: 1.34

Millwood missed about 10 starts in 2004, and about 2-3 in 2005. He has a power pitcher’s build and mechanics, which means he’s prone to get out of rhythem. When this happens, he gives up more home runs (due to the ball being left up) and tends to go much deeper in counts (though his walk rate stays pretty stable.)

His tendency is to work the outside of the plate with lefties up, frequently using the upper half out of the strikezone, and going middle out. He pitches the same to righties, using his slider to try and get ground balls to second more.

He throws about 70% fastballs, mixing in a hard slider, and a curve he uses when he gets ahead in the count. He throws a changeup infrequently.

Vicente Padilla
k9 trend
2003 PHI: 5.74
2004 PHI: 6.40
2005 PHI: 6.31

k:bb trend
2003 PHI: 2.15
2004 PHI: 2.28
2005 PHI: 1.39

gb/fb trend:
2003 PHI: 1.32
2004 PHI: 1.25
2005 PHI: 1.25
Note: Before 2003, Padilla was an extreme ground ball pitcher.

Padilla has struggled with arm injuries the last two seasons. His mechanics are poor, as he both slings the ball up to the plate with his arm leading, and throws across his body. He’s also one of the slowest workers in baseball.

Padilla pounds the plate against righties and lefties with a mid-90′s fastball. He only deviates from his fastball (which bores in on lefties and down to righties) about 20% of the time, relying on a curve as his main breaking pitch. His slider and changeup are just for show.

Kameron Loe
2005:
k9: 4.40
k:bb: 1.45
gb/fb: 2.46

Loe is a tall pitcher who kinda reminds me of a poor-man’s Derek Lowe. He is a 2nd year player who relies on the groundball to be useful, let alone effective. His base-runner rate is troubling, because he has a sub-3 gb/fb.

His fastball sinks and he keeps it in the bottom third of the strike zone. He has an occasional curveball and not much else.

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By Mullet,

I’m going to take a slightly different bent on this preview, so bear with me. Let me get the basics out of the way.

St. Louis Cardinals
2005: 100-62 1st in the NL Central, defeated the San Diego Padres (3-0) in the NLDS, lost to the Houston Astros (4-2) in the NLCS

Projected Lineup
SS David Eckstein
2B Junior Spivey
3B Scott Rolen
1B Albert Pujols
CF Jim Edmonds
RF Juan Encarnacion
LF Larry Bigbie
C Yadier Molina

Projected Rotation
Cris Carpenter
Mark Mulder
Jeff Suppan
Jason Marquis
Sidney Ponson

Projected Closer
Jason Isringhausen

Chicago White Sox
2005: 99-63 1st in the AL Central, defeated the Boston Red Sox (3-0) in the ALDS, defeated the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) (4-1) in the ALCS, defeated the Houston Astros (4-0) in the World Series

Projected Lineup
CF Scott Podsednik
2B Tadahito Iguchi
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
C A.J. Pierzynski
3B Joe Crede
SS Juan Uribe
CF Brian Anderson

Projected Rotation
Mark Buehrle
Freddy Garcia
Jose Contreras
Jon Garland
Javier Vazquez

Projected Closer
Bobby Jenks

The only thing that can stop the Cardinals from winning the NL Central and being the favorite to win the NL is Father Time. He’s approaching, and approaching fast, but I think he’s probably a year off.

That’s what I said last season about the St. Louis Cardinals, and I think that was about as accurate as one can get in a prognostication. The Cardinals cruised to their second straight 100+ win season, and lost a competitive NLCS to an Astros team that was simply on fire.

Couple that with a likely improved staff (upon the return of the injured Buehrle) and I think that’s a recipe for a couple game improvement. 85 wins probably won’t be enough to win the division, especially with every other team in the AL Central arguably improved, but this team is good enough to take the Central should the Twins slip.

On the other hand, they’re managed by Ozzie Guillen. Maybe I should reverse that 85 and 77.

Unfortunately, I wasn’t as accurate on my analysis of the White Sox. They outperformed my prediction by a full 14 wins, and Ozzie Guillen was pretty much the consensus manager of the millenium, as he guided the Pale Hose to their first World Series victory since well before the elderly could recline in their Craftmatic adjustable beds (honestly – I’ve always just wanted to make a Craftmatic reference). The White Sox pitching staff was stellar and had one of the most dominating post-season performances in history.

So here we have two teams, the two teams with the best records in their leagues, with GMs of differing reputations. Walt Jocketty is, for the most part, considered to be a solid GM. Not the most inventive guy, but good enough to use the resources he has to put together teams that are consitently good (they’ve made the playoffs in 5 out of the last 6 seasons). Ken Williams was widely ridiculed (and quite often by me), considered to be a guy who didn’t get it, a guy who has a big market team that simply couldn’t get over the hump. When the going got rough, he got a new manager. Since he took over in 2001, the team had never finished with less than 81 wins, but never more than 86.

Then 2005 happened.

Everything came together for the White Sox. The small ball offense did enough to stay in games, while the pitching staff just shut down the opposition. When I say shut down the opposition, I mean it in about as dominating way as one can. The team ERA+ was 123. Just absolute domination.

Likewise, the St. Louis Cardinals dominated their opposition. The team ERA+ … also 123, just like the Pale Hose. The offense was less exciting than usual, as Scott Rolen spent most of the season on the sidelines, and only the great Albert Pujols had a full, healthy, stellar season. The entire starting outfield (Edmonds, Walker, Sanders) hit well–but none played an entire season. The Cardinals got by on their dominant pitching and it carried them to the NLCS where they ran into a team with more dominant pitching.

So, 2005. Two teams, two dominant staffs, the clear cream of their leagues. What would 2006 hold for them? What would Jocketty and Williams do to help get their teams over the hump?

Oddly enough, it would be Ken Williams who would do the most. Walt Jocketty stood back. He let Matt Morris leave–not a huge loss given Morris’ recent performance, but he replaced him with Sidney Ponson and Anthony Reyes. Reyes will be good, and good soon, but there’s not a whole lot of room for error there, given the variability in pitching from year to year and the injury histories of Mark Mulder and Cris Carpenter. Gone from the dominant pen are Al Reyes, Ray King, and Julian Tavarez. In their stead? Braden Looper, Ricardo Rincon, and Josh Hancock. It’s tough to project bullpens, and the Cardinals did get younger, but I think it’s a safe bet the bullpen will be less successful in 2006.

Jocketty lost Walker to retirement, and Sanders to KC. He replaced them with Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion. Both are ok players. Neither has been, to this point in their careers, good enough to carry a corner outfield spot. Junior Spivey replaces Mark Grudzielanek at 2B. Again, the Cards got younger, but they didn’t get better. Overall, these three offensive additions probably net the Cards a net -50 runs. The only saving grace is the return of a healthy Scott Rolen, who at age 31, should still have something left to compete with David Wright as the best 3B in the NL. This is a team that, at best, is probably a treaded water (and likely lost 25-50 runs offensively and defensively). In the newly hyper-competitive NL Central, that might not be enough to keep the Cards on top. Or certainly not on top for very long.

Ken Williams could have sat back and reaped the rewards of a World Series victory. He could have sat there, knowing that his team probably wasn’t as good as their record said, and let 2006 take its course, secure in his position as the man who brought a title to Chicago. He didn’t. He traded away fan favorite Aaron Rowand, bringing in Jim Thome to take bats at DH. He traded for Javier Vazquez to replace the weak link in the pitching staff (Orlando Hernandez) and make a formidable pitching staff more formidable.
Not many GMs would trade away the starting CF and a starting pitcher from a World Series winning club. But Williams did what needed to be done to make his team better and take advantage of some of the new revenue headed to the Sox. With Thome, the offense will be better and will not need to rely on nearly as much small ball to win. With Vazquez, the White Sox still have the best pitching in the league, and now have Brandon McCarthy ready to step in when needed, should someone get hurt or fall apart. The White Sox still won’t score 1000 runs, but they’ll score 800.

You have to figure on some regression on the part of both pitching staffs. If the Cards staff regresses much at all, the offense won’t be there to pick up the slack. Similarly, if the Sox staff regresses, the offense won’t be there to carry it, but it will be enough to keep them above water (whereas last season, they would have drowned). Two teams, seemingly moving in opposite directions, but are in similar situations in recent history. Fittingly, they’ll have similar records:

St. Louis Cardinals
Projection: 92-70

Chicago White Sox
Projection: 92-70