I am going to talk a little bit about how each club’s season has gone thus far and then get into some thoughts on a wild night (and day for that matter) at Fenway.
With respect to the Red Sox and Yankees and where they stand a day into the second month of the 2006 season, there are two incontrivertible truths that I can see.
1) The Yankees have played far better than the Red Sox thus far.
You play winning baseball by putting runs on the board and keeping the other team off of it. So far in 2006, the Yankees have scored 23 more runs than the Sox and prevented other teams from scoring 32 fewer times. Adjust for park and competition as Baseball Prospectus’s W3 percentage does and the Yanks are basically playing like a 110-115 win team while your Red Sox look like little more than your run-of-the-mill, 80-win also-ran. Put simply, the Yanks look like the best team in baseball and the Sox look like they might crack the top-20.
2) The Yankees cannot play any better than they have while the Red Sox figure to improve.
OK so maybe this is not an “incontrivertible truth” but it sure as hell is demonstrably likely. So the way I look at it is that while the Red Sox have played well short of their potential, they have staked themselves to a one-game lead in the AL East. Simultaneously, while the Yankees have played about as well as they can, they haven’t accumulated the wins commensurate with their stellar play. This may well cost them in the end. Have a look at some of the early-season performances from the Yankees:
Jason Giambi: .328/.542/.813
Derek Jeter: .396/.505/.637
Mike Mussina: 1.08 WHIP, 8.54 K/9, 4.63 K/BB
Meanwhile, the Yanks have also received mild out-performance from Johnny Damon, Gary Sheffield, Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada while only A-Rod and Hideki Matsui have slightly under-performed. In fairness, Randy Johnson ought to be a good bit better, and Andy Phillips and Bernie Williams are not as God-awful as they have looked.
For their part, the Red Sox have had virtually nobody significantly exceed expectations (no, 15 great innings from Jonathan Papelbon does not qualify as significantly exceeding). David Ortiz has come as advertised, Mike Lowell has shown his pre-2005 form and Curt Schilling has been excellent but other than that, almost across the board, the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations. Have a look at the two clearest Red Sox candidates to improve…
Mark Loretta: .217/.278/.292
Jaon Varitek: .250/.345/.375
Also, Coco Crisp’s injury has badly hampered the offense’s ability to function as it should. Here are the center fielder’s numbers that have filled in (note that these numbers are only when they played CF):
Dustan Mohr: .192/.250/.462
Adam Stern: .150/.150/.200
Wily Mo Pena: .278/.278/.333
Willie Harris: .077/.294/.077
Coco Crisp (pre-injury): .333/.385/.458
Crisp’s return will help immensely.
Alex Gonzalez has also been terrible, worse than he ever has been. One way or another the Red Sox will get improved production from shortstop, either by improvement from Gonzalez, improvement from Alex Cora or help in the form of Dustin Pedroia.
On the pitching side for the Sox, both Josh Beckett and Matt Clement will have better looking numbers in time. As for the 5th starter position, if Lenny DiNardo does not get it together quickly, Matt Ginter or Jon Lester would make capable replacements.
So there is bad news and good news. The bad news is that the Sox have played really poorly thus far and the Yanks have played about as well as a baseball team can play. The good news is despite that, the Sox have a one-game cushion on the Yanks and only figure to improve while the Yanks have nowhere to go but down.
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A few things on last night’s 7-3 victory at Fenway…
- Until David Ortiz’s home run, it seemed like the harder you hit the ball, the smaller your chances for success were. Balls were pummeled right at defenders while the wind chipped in to knock balls down too. Meanwhile, bunts, bloopers and broken bats went for hits all night.
- Mirabelli’s Odyssey is just a great story.
- The boos for Johnny Damon were embarassing. Imagine being a grown man, standing up and booing another man for taking a job offer that was going to compensate him more? You know for that matter the crowd as a whole was embarassing. Between the “steroids” chants at Giambi, a “Johnny Sucks” chant and the ol’ moronic standby “Yankees Suck”, the worst Boston sports fandom has to offer was on full display for a national television audience last night.
- Here’s a fantastic recap by Cliff Corcoran of Bronx Banter.