Sox-Yanks 2006
I am going to talk a little bit about how each club’s season has gone thus far and then get into some thoughts on a wild night (and day for that matter) at Fenway.
With respect to the Red Sox and Yankees and where they stand a day into the second month of the 2006 season, there are two incontrivertible truths that I can see.
1) The Yankees have played far better than the Red Sox thus far.
You play winning baseball by putting runs on the board and keeping the other team off of it. So far in 2006, the Yankees have scored 23 more runs than the Sox and prevented other teams from scoring 32 fewer times. Adjust for park and competition as Baseball Prospectus’s W3 percentage does and the Yanks are basically playing like a 110-115 win team while your Red Sox look like little more than your run-of-the-mill, 80-win also-ran. Put simply, the Yanks look like the best team in baseball and the Sox look like they might crack the top-20.
2) The Yankees cannot play any better than they have while the Red Sox figure to improve.
OK so maybe this is not an “incontrivertible truth” but it sure as hell is demonstrably likely. So the way I look at it is that while the Red Sox have played well short of their potential, they have staked themselves to a one-game lead in the AL East. Simultaneously, while the Yankees have played about as well as they can, they haven’t accumulated the wins commensurate with their stellar play. This may well cost them in the end. Have a look at some of the early-season performances from the Yankees:
Jason Giambi: .328/.542/.813
Derek Jeter: .396/.505/.637
Mike Mussina: 1.08 WHIP, 8.54 K/9, 4.63 K/BB
Meanwhile, the Yanks have also received mild out-performance from Johnny Damon, Gary Sheffield, Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada while only A-Rod and Hideki Matsui have slightly under-performed. In fairness, Randy Johnson ought to be a good bit better, and Andy Phillips and Bernie Williams are not as God-awful as they have looked.
For their part, the Red Sox have had virtually nobody significantly exceed expectations (no, 15 great innings from Jonathan Papelbon does not qualify as significantly exceeding). David Ortiz has come as advertised, Mike Lowell has shown his pre-2005 form and Curt Schilling has been excellent but other than that, almost across the board, the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations. Have a look at the two clearest Red Sox candidates to improve…
Mark Loretta: .217/.278/.292
Jaon Varitek: .250/.345/.375
Also, Coco Crisp’s injury has badly hampered the offense’s ability to function as it should. Here are the center fielder’s numbers that have filled in (note that these numbers are only when they played CF):
Dustan Mohr: .192/.250/.462
Adam Stern: .150/.150/.200
Wily Mo Pena: .278/.278/.333
Willie Harris: .077/.294/.077
Coco Crisp (pre-injury): .333/.385/.458
Crisp’s return will help immensely.
Alex Gonzalez has also been terrible, worse than he ever has been. One way or another the Red Sox will get improved production from shortstop, either by improvement from Gonzalez, improvement from Alex Cora or help in the form of Dustin Pedroia.
On the pitching side for the Sox, both Josh Beckett and Matt Clement will have better looking numbers in time. As for the 5th starter position, if Lenny DiNardo does not get it together quickly, Matt Ginter or Jon Lester would make capable replacements.
So there is bad news and good news. The bad news is that the Sox have played really poorly thus far and the Yanks have played about as well as a baseball team can play. The good news is despite that, the Sox have a one-game cushion on the Yanks and only figure to improve while the Yanks have nowhere to go but down.
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A few things on last night’s 7-3 victory at Fenway…
- Until David Ortiz’s home run, it seemed like the harder you hit the ball, the smaller your chances for success were. Balls were pummeled right at defenders while the wind chipped in to knock balls down too. Meanwhile, bunts, bloopers and broken bats went for hits all night.
- Mirabelli’s Odyssey is just a great story.
- The boos for Johnny Damon were embarassing. Imagine being a grown man, standing up and booing another man for taking a job offer that was going to compensate him more? You know for that matter the crowd as a whole was embarassing. Between the “steroids” chants at Giambi, a “Johnny Sucks” chant and the ol’ moronic standby “Yankees Suck”, the worst Boston sports fandom has to offer was on full display for a national television audience last night.
- Here’s a fantastic recap by Cliff Corcoran of Bronx Banter.
“15 great innings from Jonathan Papelbon does not qualify as significantly exceeding”
Love the site, but, c’mon.
11 saves?
lights-out closer?
This was expected?
I’m delighted, but how could anyone have seen this level of performance?
Fair but what’s the on-field difference between 15 truly superb innings from Paps and, say, 15 merely good ones? A third of a win? Less?
I don’t know…that’s all I meant. Not saying he’s not exceeding expectations, just saying with a guy that has only pitched fifteen innings, it does not make that big of a difference.
I think Damon himself said it best. In this morning’s paper he said they’re booing the uniform, not the man. And thats true. I was at the game last night and I booed. I would have booed anyone who stepped out from the yankees dugout, and I would do so again. Just as the fans in NY would boo any Red Sox. Booing damon was just as much a business decision as it was for him to leave for NY in the first place. At least thats how I look at it.
I don’t think there is anything wrong with booing Damon. I loved him while he was in Boston, but now he’s a Yankee. If it comes down to business, then it comes down to business. I don’t think he made the wrong decision, and I don’t think he’s a terrible guy, but he made a decision knowing full well the possible repercussions of the decision (if you want to call getting booed a repercussion).
I wish him well in his new home, but I hope he loses every game for the next four years. Its nothing personal, just business.
How does any analysis of the yankees and red sox seasons (to date), not include things like:
* teams played
* pitchers faced when playing such teams
* number of games on road/home
For example, the Yankees outscored the Royals 30-15 at home. 147/98 becomes 117/83. Still good, but you have to dig deeper.
For example, the Yankees have won these games: 15-2; 17-6; 10-1; 33 runs in their run differential came in 3 games. Add the 15 from the Royals (48) and we’re looking at +1 in the rest of their games.
On top of that, I think you could look at the pitching staff and see much room for improvement. Johnson is inconsistent; Chacon just recently put together 2 good starts (after pitching horrible); Wang is up and down (snicker, snicker); Who’s their 5th starter again?
I’m rambling and all over the place … but I think the “analysis” could be better.
It was obviously meant to be quick and dirty…
But you do a nice job poo-pooing blowout wins. You don’t think it might take ability to blow teams out, do you?
Quick and dirty? Or intellectually lazy? I kid, I kid.
My point was that you sure came up with some concrete conclusions based on your, admittedly so, quick and dirty evaluation. But they aren’t as concrete as you have made them out to be.
One Red Sox blowout could change everything (or the Yankee’s getting blown out). David Wells craptacular — shouldn’t have been starting in the first place — start skews things. Facing THE guys that always seem to stymie you (Kazmir twice? Lilly) will skew things.
Here’s a really simplified version of the above post.
Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi and Mike Mussina are more or less all off to the best starts of their respective careers and all the Yanks have to show for it is a one-game deficit in the AL East. And it’s not like the Red Sox are playing great.
“what’s the on-field difference between 15 truly superb innings from Paps and, say, 15 merely good ones? A third of a win?”
Could be closer to 3 games.
No margin of error in those innings, and the
impact of having a ‘lights-out’ closer to shorten the game is a huge psychological plus for the Sox going forward, while putting tremendous pressure on opponents.
Thrilled to have this issue to discuss btw.